A Traditional Strategy Of Betting That Prices Would Go Up
A report from Real Assets IPE. “Price corrections in Norway, Sweden and Switzerland do not mean that bubbles are bursting in European housing markets, according to Scope Analysis. The German company argued that the price falls were caused by heightened levels of new construction – but it expects prices to stabilise this year. ‘Recent house price corrections have, in part, been caused by the significant expansion in the supply of apartments in the last three years,’ Scope said. ‘In 2017, supply grew across almost all of Europe for the first time in years.’”
“Construction of new apartments in Sweden is well above the long-term average. Construction levels are also above average in Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Finland and Austria, although not to the same extent, it said. In Germany, on the other hand, construction is at more normal levels, although the number of newly-built apartments since 2010 has grown rapidly each year. Even in Stockholm and Oslo, the number of households have grown faster than the number of completed apartments in recent years, it said.”
“The current decline in apartment prices should not be confused with the bursting of a speculative bubble due to overly optimistic expectations or irrational exuberance, Scope said. Speculative construction is not widespread across Europe, it added. The only exceptions are the high-price segments in major cities such as London, Paris or Munich.”
From Home and Property UK. “London’s house prices are continuing to slide, with average asking prices down just over £11,000 year on year. ‘Aspiring first-time buyers are among the greatest potential beneficiaries of the downwards adjustment in asking prices by London’s sellers over the last 12 months,’ said Miles Shipside, Rightmove director and housing market analyst. ‘It’s been well-documented that the top end of the London market has been struggling for the past couple of years, but … asking prices in the lowest priced sector are now experiencing a larger percentage fall than these high-end properties.’”
“The key reason for price drops in the capital’s starter home sector is a collapse in the buy to let sector. Tax changes over the past two years have made owning a rental property a far less lucrative enterprise. The number of landlords snapping up flats in the capital has collapsed as a result, leaving the way clear for first time buyers. Jonathan Samuels, CEO of property lender Octane Capital, described the situation as a ’sea change’ in the property market. ‘Amateur landlords are fast becoming an anachronism,’ he said.”
From Burnaby Now in Canada. “The number of detached homes selling in Burnaby is dropping – and prices are following suit. A total of 56 detached homes sold in the city last month, down from 103 in June 2017. Over the same period, the median price of a home fell from $1.65 million to $1.45 million. At the same time, the number of active listings is on the rise.”
“‘Buyers are less active today. This is allowing the supply of homes for sale to accumulate to levels we haven’t seen in the last few years,’ said Phil Moore, Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) president. ‘Rising interest rates, high prices and more restrictive mortgage requirements are among the factors dampening home buyer activity today.’”
“The market is flooded with detached house listings across the region, according to the REBGV. While the number of homes put on the market last month was lower than in previous months, the total number of active listings is at its highest since June 2015.”
From the Bangkok Post. Thailand is no stranger to a glut of real estate projects, even after the bursting property bubble of the mid-90s, which brought the economy down with it, sending shock waves through every strata of society. While some do not see history repeating itself this time around, a continuous rise in mortgage loans propelled by intense competition among financial institutions offering a high loan-to-value (LTV) ratio to homebuyers, along with numerous mixed-used projects in the pipeline, have stirred uneasiness for financial regulators.”
“‘Mixed-use projects are not on the verge of oversupply, but condominium projects outside of the central business district warrant concern because there is a glut, with many units remaining unsold,’ said Termporn Tantivivat, vice-president at Maybank Kim Eng Securities Thailand.”
“Phanom Kanchanathiemthao, managing director of property consultant Knight Frank Chartered Thailand, said the low-end market has many financial institutions concerned when considering mortgage loan applications. ‘This segment has a lot of non-performing loans [NPLs],’ said Mr Phanom.”
From ABC News. “Australia’s property market is enduring a serious winter chill. Preliminary auction clearance rates in Sydney dropped below 50 per cent last weekend according to Domain’s numbers and were clinging just above according to CoreLogic. Many agents are slow to report unsuccessful auctions, so those clearance rates tend to drop noticeably when the final figures come in at the end of the week. ‘We’re tipping somewhere between 41 and 44 per cent for Sydney and for Melbourne we’re thinking it’s going to come in roughly around 49 per cent,’ SQM Research managing director, Louis Christopher, said.”
“The Sydney market has already fallen around 5 per cent from its peak last year. Although both Louis Christopher and Pete Wargent observed that these falls have not been evenly spread, with some properties faring much worse and some holding their value. ‘Some of the second tier and secondary quality properties the clearance rates have dropped very sharply,’ Mr Wargent noted. ‘That’s where a good agent doing their job should be able to help a vendor set their expectations accordingly,’ he said, noting unrealistic boom-time expectations are one of the reasons many properties are staying on the market for months.”
“Based on previous experience, Mr Christopher is expecting auction clearance rates to fall into the 30s for Sydney and mid-40s for Melbourne. ‘There’s only been about two or three times I’ve seen auction clearance rates in the 30s,’ he said. ‘That was previously in 2008, when we were entering into the GFC. Before that, briefly in 2004 in Sydney when the state had the vendor stamp duty introduced. And then, prior to that, back in 1989 when the cash rate hit 17 per cent.’”
From Bloomberg on Australia. “Sydney-based mortgage broker Redom Syed said he has seen a ‘material clampdown’ since the start of the Royal Commission banking inquiry, with lenders ramping up verification of borrowers’ income and living expenses. Australia’s banks are on notice. Alarmed by the free-for-all in risky loans and the deterioration in standards that accompanied lenders fighting for market share, regulators slapped them with curbs that included restrictions on interest-only lending. The value of new interest-only lending, which is the preferred option of investors, is down 57 percent on a year ago.”
“Syed is also seeing a number of ’surprised’ interest-only clients, who were unaware that their repayments are set to increase and are now scrambling for options. For every A$1 million of mortgage debt, a borrower now needs roughly A$40,000 more in household income than three years ago, Syed said. For those on the wrong side of the new restrictions, options are limited: Find the money for higher payments, move to another interest-only loan at a non-bank lender or sell the property.”
“For an immigrant from Russia and 47 year-old mother-of-three Natasha Arens, establishing a foothold in the property market was central to securing her family’s future in Australia. Arens said she followed a traditional strategy of betting that prices would go up in Australia. She had planned to eventually pay off the mortgage on her house by selling the additional properties after their value had risen. ‘I was trying to give my family their share of the Australian Dream, which is owning property,’ she said. ‘Some might say it’s crazy, but that’s what people seem to do.’”
‘asking prices in the lowest priced sector are now experiencing a larger percentage fall than these high-end properties’
It’s crow time for some posters here!
‘Many agents are slow to report unsuccessful auctions’
Ahem…
Interesting. Not what I’m seeing in my neck of the woods. The sub 300K stuff sells quickly and the mid 200K stuff sells in one day. The over 400K stuff just sits.
Realtors are liars.
My market too. High priced sits and gets price reductions. Lower priced stuff that is priced appropriately goes quick.
In my burg….
Under 250k sells in 2 hours.
Under 350k sells in 2 days.
Under 450k sells in 2 weeks
Once you get in the 500s things are still selling but it will take a while, and probably a price drop or two. But sales are definitely still happening. At the 1M level nothing seems to be moving any more…same homes 1m plus Ive been seeing since April and May are still listed. And few if any price drops. The 500k to 700k drop prices quickly if listings linger. The higher end stuff..not giving it away!!!!
big difference in housing markets in international hot spots like Sydney, Toronto, Vancouver, and Some European cities vs what is going in in America. Some of the international markets like Canada never had a housing bust in 2008 and have been running higher since … now comes payback time. Areas in the US will eventually have a housing bust … probably in the next 2 or 3 years.
‘Some of the international markets like Canada never had a housing bust in 2008′
That’s the story they tell. I remember it different.
September 26, 2008
“According to the Municiple Property Assessment Corporation, Windsor homeowners will see an average decline of 5.5 per cent in their residential assessments in 2009. What it means for people like Vicki Bondy, is their taxes will likely go up more than the average homeowner.”
“‘It’s just craziness — our housing prices are going down, not up,’ said Bondy, who vows to appeal her assessment. ‘I’m going to write them and say: ‘Are you out of your minds? We’re all trying to just get by.’”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=4967
September 19, 2008
“While many people across the country are worried about the effects the crashing American economy may have on Canada, Calgarians are no different. Homeowner Maryanne Bishop worries the markets will affect the price of her house, which she was set to sell. ‘The housing market is already slowing down and I’m worried what this will do to it, now.’”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=4948
September 13, 2008
The Calgary Herald from Canada. “In talking with Bryan Morrow of Re/Max First and Gary MacLean of Re/Max Central, they both agree that by the end of this year, the average selling price of homes listed on the MLS system could be down as much as 20 per cent city-wide.”
“In real numbers, this is a decline of something like $100,000 from last year’s average high of about $515,000.”
“The predicted decline will be a reaction to the massive number of resale homes on the market, and the fact homebuyers decided to fight escalating prices by not spending the kind of money sellers were asking for. Regarding price, Morrow sent a price graph that pretty much explains what happened to prices through 2005 and up until the mid-point of 2007.”
“‘Prices went up nearly 100 per cent in 2-1/2 years,’ he says. ‘Let’s just say the ‘why’ for the decline can be found in the words, ‘Too far, too fast.’”
“Calculations made by Morrow show that as of the end of August, the average price for single-detached homes had fallen 13.6 per cent. Prices have been falling for 15 months, says MacLean. Sure, there have been a couple of spikes, but the trend is for prices to go down.”
“The problem isn’t sales, but inventory, he says. ‘Sales have been flat but good over that time, but the inventory situation sucks and until the inventory drops, prices will continue to fall.’”
“‘The people who are going to lose are those who have to sell — those who can no longer afford the payments based on 100-per-cent financing,’ says MacLean. ‘Their lifestyles have changed. Maybe they now have a family, maybe someone lost their job. Whatever, they are in a position where they have to sell in a market that sucks.’”
“Another realtor has a suggestion that might just help deal with the large amount of used homes listed for sale. ‘In this market, sellers have to think more like buyers,’ says the realtor, who didn’t want his name used.”
“It’s not just Calgary that has slowed down when it comes to real estate. But like Calgary, the Okanagan has so much going for it: it’s not worrying people, nor is it bound to last, say officials.”
“‘The Okanagan is a special spot and because of that, it will continue to stay in favour,’ says Randy Kowalchuk, a partner in one of the major residential developers in the Okanagan, and president of the Penticton Chamber of Commerce.”
“‘The short story is the market has dried up with Alberta buyers (and some from Vancouver) who are attracted to the soft market in the U.S.,’ says Wayne Tebbutt. ‘Some projects have stopped, others haven’t started, and still others are not going to the next phase right now.’”
“One such project that was shut down completely was the large Skaha Beach Club and Spa in Penticton, the result of the sub-prime crisis in the U.S., says developer Mel Reeves.”
“The right projects are selling, says the vice-president of Sothebys International Realty in Canada, which looks after several projects in the Okanagan, Vancouver Island and the mainland. ‘The irresponsibility has gone out of the market and we are seeing a really strong appetite for property from the sophisticated purchasers,’ says Kyle Dunn.”
The Times Colonist from Canada. “The value of B.C. housing sales plummeted nearly 50 per cent in August compared with the same month last year, highlighting the drastic changes slicing through all segments of the real estate market.”
“‘We’ve seen it now for a number of months — the decline in sales — and demand has certainly come off its record levels last year,’ said Cameron Muir, chief economist for the B.C. Real Estate Association. ‘It does have an impact on all markets in the province, particularly when we see not only a falloff in demand but also a sizable increase in the number of homes for sale.’”
“In Greater Victoria, the number of homes for sale — 4,657 — is at its highest level in a dozen years. Provincially, total listings climbed to 58,445 in August, up by 61 per cent from August 2007.”
“B.C. home sales dipped to 5,175 last August, down 47.4 per cent from the same month in 2007, the report said. And in the capital region, individual sales slid by 37.5 per cent, compared with the same month the previous year.”
“The average price of a single-family house in Greater Victoria has dropped by nearly five year cent from $606,449 in January to $549,914 in August, according to Victoria Real Estate Board figures.”
“‘The average price in Victoria has edged down over the last several months in light of the imbalance between supply and demand in the marketplace. And that situation is occurring in most major markets in the province,’ Muir said.”
The Vancouver Sun from Canada. “New homes sale listings in August suffered their second-largest monthly drop in 25 years on the Multiple Listing Service, the B.C. Real Estate Association said Friday. Residential unit sales followed the same pattern. They were down 47 per cent to 5,175 units last month compared to 9,834 units in August 2007.”
“On a regional basis, the biggest drop was in Greater Vancouver where sales fell from 3,493 units to 1,611 — a 53.9-per-cent decline.”
“In an economic research paper released earlier this week, BMO Capital Markets chief economist Sal Guatieri suggested the decline is not a short-term trend. ‘Canada faces the prospect of lower house prices in the year ahead, similar to many other countries — the U.S., Britain, Ireland, Spain, France, and Australia,’ Guatieri wrote.”
“‘After six years of unsustainable growth, prices have run smack into the affordability wall. Demand is sagging, listings are at record highs and prospective first-time buyers are choosing to rent rather than own,’ he said.”
“Guatieri said the average house price in major Canadian markets rose 78 per cent from early 2002 to late 2007 — ‘more than twice as fast as income.’ He said that a nationwide decline in average prices is being ’skewed by deep sales drops in high-priced regions like Vancouver’ — but said that in spite of the disproportionately large drop here, a national ’softening trend is undeniable.’”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=4933
September 12, 2008
“Mervyn King…the Bank of England governor, acknowledged the City was in its worst state since the 1930s, but that pouring public money into the mortgage market was fraught with risks. Mr King said the notion that there was a ‘magic solution’ to this credit collapse was ‘an illusion.’ Heavy government intervention is a risky path to take, he warned. ‘What that would do is totally undercut the incentive of private sector banks to get their own balance sheets back in order,’ he said.”
“There are opportunities for good buys in Burleigh Waters and Varsity Lakes, as booming property prices settle down, according to PRD Nationwide Burleigh principal Mark Smith.”
“‘Since November, prices have come down 10-15 per cent and market activity has come down 50 per cent,’ said Mr Smith. ‘It hasn’t just happened in our patch. It has happened across Australia and across the world.’”
“A slump in sales in Vancouver dragged the average price of an existing home in Canada lower last month. ‘The drop was pretty serious, especially coming on the back of a big sales drop there the month before. When you’ve got sales for your most expensive city falling like that, that’s going to knock the stuffing out of the national average,’ said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=4931
‘Since November, prices have come down 10-15 per cent and market activity has come down 50 per cent,’ said Mr Smith. ‘It hasn’t just happened in our patch. It has happened across Australia and across the world.’
This is what really happened.
That’s the story they tell. I remember it different.
I do recall that Canadian prices dropped. But I also remember the dismay expressed in this very blog when it recovered very quickly. While we had those tax credits for buying a shack, trying to jump start our housing market with the equivalent of a dead battery, the Canucks were already back to the races, if my memory serves me.
The average price of a single-family house in Greater Victoria has dropped by nearly five year cent from $606,449 in January to $549,914 in August, according to Victoria Real Estate Board figures.”
_____
You consider a “nearly 5 %” drop in prices a housing bust?
Falls 56k in 8 months. What happened next? I’m not going to go through the archives and spoon feed this stuff to you. Jeebus, the hair-splitting is tiresome.
“You consider a “nearly 5 %” drop in prices a housing bust?”
That’s how all busts start. Do you think it’s just 50% off immediately?
thx for the clarification, Ben. But I’d echo what Tik Tok says. A 5% dip back in 08/09 followed by years of more appreciation (until recently) isn’t a bust. hence the observation/story that Canada never had a housing correction back then. Which makes it likely things could get REALLY ugly for them this time around.
‘I’d echo what Tik Tok says. A 5% dip’
It was over 9% in 9 months. There were Canadian FB’s, same in the UK Australia, etc. Remember the Olympic condo disaster in Vancouver? I didn’t think so.
In Vancouver, a New Effort to Sell Olympic Condos
New York Times-Feb 22, 2011
Mr. Campbell, who was the mayor of Vancouver in 2002 when the city won the bid for the 2010 Winter Olympics, said he liked the community’s …
Seller takes big loss on Vancouver Olympic Village condo
The Globe and Mail-Feb 13, 2015
The Action: The seller of this Olympic Village condo paid $1.565-million plus HST in 2010 – a loss of more than half a million dollars, according …
Half a million loss, paid 1.5M in 2010. A third.
a short term 9-10% blip downwards in Vancouver doesn’t compare to the 40+% that many US big city markets saw.
https://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/a-canadian-housing-chart-that-puts-the-bubble-in-perspective/
Just that condo alone lost 33% from 2010 to 2015. Not 10%. That’s 7 years after 2008. Short term? And some of the people that bought earlier lost everything. You don’t remember any of this showing you don’t really know much about the subject at all. You are just repeating MSM/REIC fairy tales. They would like you to believe it was all about US subprime. (Never mind that 90%+ of the US defaults were prime). Oh no, shack prices to the moon never caused any problem but in a few places in Florida and Las Vegas. You do realize Calgary is in year 4 of a bust?
Used to live in the Okanagan. House linked below was began in early 2007.
http://chamberlainpropertygroup.ca/real-estate-listings/listings-sold/property/493-3264-naramata-road-naramata
Standing dead trees from prior forest fire nearby were logged to mill the massive timbers for the project, using no machinery at the mill site. Some of the beams are about 18″x14″. Hand joined, true timber frame mortise/tenon/pegs. Stones for fireplace hauled by hand from local hills.
Blood. Sweat. Tears. Asking price when project finished in 2009: $1.5k…. Crickets…. House was on/off market&rented on/off until finally selling Jan 2017 when owner capitulation happened, for $969k. There is stress between these typed lines of facts that could never be conveyed, from that lost decade.
– Crickets –
“House linked below was began in early 2007.”
I didn’t think Canadians could afford such a nice place.
Denver, CO (Hilltop) Housing Prices Crater 21% YOY On Ballooning Inventory As Demand Plummets
https://www.zillow.com/hilltop-denver-co/home-values/
…if I was buying in London, which most people are not. I’ve always found the axiom “all real estate is local” which is true now as ever.
The mania is Global.
So is the stupidity.
… pity the MF’ers who are living abroad and earning income in a foreign currency but have borrowed for housing in US dollars. As the USD$ rises over the next few years relative to other currencies, it takes more local currency to pay back that USD$ denominated debt. This goes for many other countries to, that are carrying a lot of US$ debt and will negatively affect the economies in these countries in the years ahead. Painful times ahead for those not paying attention to what is going on and protecting themselves.
The USD is going to rise? But everyone on CNN says Trump is destroying America. So if I understand correctly, the destruction of America will result in a stronger American currency. That’s kinda weird, dontcha think?
CNN. lol
“It’s crow time for some posters here!”
Yeeeeaup…..
<Longboat Key, FL Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY As Vacation/Retirement Property Demand Evaporates
https://www.movoto.com/longboat-key-fl/market-trends/
The drops in London didn’t happen by themselves. “Tax changes” actively deflated the bubble by kicking out all the landlords. Of course, those drops are going to discourage the foreign money-parkers and deflate the London bubble further.
It would be interesting to see what happens if the US states start passing taxes or restrictions on AirBnB whole-house properties. That could similarly deflate a few American bubbles, likely on a local level.
In my view, that can’t happen fast enough. I love the idea of AirBnB being used to rent out an extra room in a house or a granny flat, but I loathe the idea of investors buying up properties in the middle of neighborhoods to turn them into de facto hotels.
When will falling prices and rents land on Southern California shores? Seems like we led the way down in the first wave of Housing Bubble collapse, but are lagging behind the leading edge of the global price and inventory correction this time around.
One thing seems clear: This worldwide, slow-motion, central-bank-engineered short squeeze is ending. Buyer beware!
“Buyer beware!”
Shorty too!
Portland, OR Housing Prices Crater 14% YOY As Speculators Panic And Flood Market With Flips
https://www.zillow.com/portland-or-97209/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
‘‘We’re tipping somewhere between 41 and 44 per cent for Sydney’
Louis is putting a good face on, but this is is brown spot in the shorts time in Australia. And this is Sydney! How long ago was it that they bragged about their “love” of shacks and crowded around by the dozens to out bid each other on some tear down for a couple million Australia pesos? They are well and truly fooked now.
You mean no more scenes like the ones that inspired this parody?
https://youtu.be/zqXjP4PG_k8
“Shithole apartment” lol!
From the last article:
‘Since the turn of the century, politicians Down Under have sold the “Australian Dream” by encouraging locals to take out mortgages and secure stakes in the property market—traditionally seen as an easy path to wealth.’
‘When growth stumbled during the global financial crisis, the government started handing out checks to help buyers scrounge up deposits, bolstering the economy in the process. As the mining-investment bonanza to feed China’s demand for commodities started to splutter from 2012, the central bank rode to the rescue, cutting interest rates to record lows.’
‘The exuberance got out of hand. Investors gorged on “interest-only loans” that required them to repay not even one cent of principal for up to five years. The frenzy for such loans peaked in June 2015, when they accounted for 46 percent of all new mortgages.’
‘Now it’s time for those borrowers to start paying up: About A$360 billion ($266 billion) of those loans revert to interest and principal payments over the next three years, just as global borrowing costs are set increase.’
‘The Reserve Bank of Australia isn’t yet pressing the panic button, saying its research suggests the damage from the loan rollovers should be minimal. Still, the household debt pile-currently at 189 percent of disposable income—has required it to tread warily. The RBA has kept interest rates unchanged since August 2016, the longest stretch in its modern history.’
All this isn’t new to long time readers here (although Bloomberg is always a couple years behind the HBB). The main takeaway is, these central banks aren’t doing the average person any favors with this gravy. They are foaming the runway with you or your neighbor. As one poster put it once:
Note to central bankers: stop helping.
“The exuberance got out of hand. Investors gorged on “interest-only loans” that required them to repay not even one cent of principal for up to five years.”
😁
“The frenzy for such loans peaked in June 2015, when they accounted for 46 percent of all new mortgages.”
😁
“Now it’s time for those borrowers to start paying up: About A$360 billion ($266 billion) of those loans revert to interest and principal payments over the next three years, just as global borrowing costs are set increase.”
😁
“The Reserve Bank of Australia isn’t yet pressing the panic button, saying its research suggests the damage from the loan rollovers should be minimal.”
Bahahahaha … and people say that Central Bankers do not have a sense of humor.
“Still, the household debt pile-currently at 189 percent of disposable income—has required it to tread warily.”
Household debt is 180 percent of disposable income. Bahahahahahahaha.
“The RBA has kept interest rates unchanged since August 2016, the longest stretch in its modern history.”
That was the set up. Now comes the time for the takedown.
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
“Now it’s time for those borrowers to start paying up: About A$360 billion ($266 billion) of those loans revert to interest and principal payments over the next three years, just as global borrowing costs are set increase.”
It’s bad enough to speculate with a fixed rate loan, but to do so with a variable rate loan? Of course in pretty all the world there are no fixed rate mortgages.
Anecdote: One of the UK relatives almost lost their house when rates skyrocketed some years ago. IIRC they were paying 14% or something like that. Fortunately the mortgage (and house prices) back then were still low, though so was their income. My recollection is that her US based parents bailed them out, though I don’t know the details.
Australian Housing Costs Rival New York’s, but Boom May Be Ending
New York Times-4 hours ago
A view of Dover Heights and neighboring areas of central Sydney, … as a bubble, as a recent Saturday-morning auction in the Sydney suburb …
So the NYT is behind Bloomberg even.
Gotta love it. A country with basically no real industry at all, that is dependent on China buying raw ore and agricultural products from them. They don’t even assemble cars there anymore, the whole industry was offshored to Thailand.
I used to work with a guy married to an Aussie. They moved there for a few years. He was a chemist (not a pharmacist) and says he couldn’t land a real job down under. They threw in the towel after a few years and came back to the States.
I know another couple, one of which is a Kiwi. Same story, they went to New Zealand. He was some sort of STEM PhD and she was an engineer. They came back about a year later. Apparently they got tired of being poor.
They make a living from shipping iron ore to China, so China can build ghost malls and ghost cities? Sounds sustainable.
“Can’t you hear , can’t you hear that thunder? You better run, you better take cover!” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4sKNJAwIkk
The amount of new Hotels being built in Long Island city is staggering but for what purpose? They lied and said tourists would come here to save 30-50% off Manhattan prices…..
The cats out of the bag……..Woman Arrested After Allegedly Setting Roommate on Fire at LIC Homeless Shelter
https://licpost.com/woman-arrested-after-allegedly-setting-roommate-on-fire-at-lic-homeless-shelter
Mirrors California; over the past 6 years or so hotels, mainly part of the H Inn, Marriot, Hilton brands have sprung up along most Ca interstates. I thought to myself “who are the clients?’. A couple of weeks ago I was driving late,north from LA and decided to stop for the night (this was midweek). Couldn’t find a vacancy in 40 miles.
So theyre being built for the homeless?
Here they stay in old no-tell motels.
Explains the bed lice
LIC is a disaster. Went to HS there and I liked it better when it was industrial and not full of wannabe Manhattanites. The housing near Silvercup and the other studios is off the chart. This is where the working class used to be able to live. That ain’t happening now.
Vienna, VA 22180 Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Housing Depreciation Ravages Fairfax County Homeowners
https://www.zillow.com/vienna-va-22180/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
‘Construction of new apartments in Sweden is well above the long-term average. Construction levels are also above average in Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Finland and Austria…The current decline in apartment prices should not be confused with the bursting of a speculative bubble due to overly optimistic expectations or irrational exuberance’
…because they didn’t see it coming. And they have to sell their portfolios and need some sheep.
… new apartments subsidized by the Swedish taxpayer to provide housing for the steady influx of “Migrants” from the South. Gotta have that someplace for them to keep warm and pass the time between living off more taxpayer subsidies and raping the local women. Poor Sweden — turning its once great country into a big sh*thole!
‘A total of 56 detached homes sold in the city last month, down from 103 in June 2017. Over the same period, the median price of a home fell from $1.65 million to $1.45 million. ..The market is flooded with detached house listings across the region’
Wow, another flood to with all the “gluts, oversupplies, oversaturations, - there’s just too many shacks people!”
But where did it come from? Did they build all these shacks in the last year? No, that isn’t possible plus they mostly build airboxes cuz that’s what suckers have been conditioned into. So if they didn’t build this flood, it must have come from people who were timing the market. Maybe didn’t live there in the first place, who were just speculating all along.
Hold on, that would mean these people talking about shortages all these years were full of you-know-what!
Could the world’s oversupply of new, speculative construction have had anything to do with the ocean of recently printed money looking for better returns than 0% interest?
Naaaah…..
Not only was there no return, the principal is evaporating.
Oooooph.
Brooklyn Heights NYC Rental Rates Crater 10% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/brooklyn-heights-new-york-ny/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on rental chart
Kenmore, WA Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY As Seattle Housing Market Tanks
https://www.movoto.com/kenmore-wa/market-trends/
Kenmore. As solid as Sears?
Sears is trying to sell the Kenmore brand (like they did with Craftsman), but there are no takers. I guess that’s what happens when you resell other manufacturers appliances and your added value is to slap the Kenmore brand on it. Whereas the Koreans make fridges with silent compressors with 10 year warranties. American fridges (or should I say Mexican fridges made with Chinese parts) are noisy by comparison.
Housing
Arcadia, CA Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY As California Housing Demand Plummets To 1997 Low
https://www.movoto.com/arcadia-ca/market-trends/
They recently had to replace the fridge in my apartment. I think the old one was a Whirlpool and I never really noticed the noise when it ran. However, this new GE is noticeably noisier.
Whereas the Koreans make fridges with silent compressors with 10 year warranties.
We had a Samsung refrigerator in our old condo and we loved it. However, your Samsung washer has given us nothing but problems. There was a massive recall of Samsung washers that were bouncing around and actually hitting things:
https://www.cpsc.gov/Recalls/2016/samsung-recalls-top-load-washing-machines
I would say quality of appliances from Korea is kind of a mixed bag at this point.
“There was a massive recall of Samsung washers that were bouncing around and actually hitting things:”
We have one of those right now, but it still runs. Fingers crossed!
fed says years of growth ahead?
did he mean quarters?
biz cycle has been scrapped
Tesla Model 3 is most profitable electric car: consultant
Reuters
July 17, 2018
“DETROIT (Reuters) - The Tesla Inc Model 3 sedan is the most profitable electric car in the automotive industry, according to the head of a top automotive consultant.”
“Sandy Munro, president of Michigan-based Munro & Associates, said the car generates net profit margins in excess of 30 percent. Munro, whose firm tore down the Model 3 to better understand it, made his comments on an appearance on Monday on Autoline, an automotive-focused television show.”
“In previous episodes discussing the Model 3, Munro had been critical of the car’s fit and finish but praised its handling on the road.”
““The Model 3 is profitable, so I have to eat crow. I didn’t think it would happen this way,” he said on Monday. “No electric car is getting 30 percent net, nobody.””
Sandy must be long Tesla.
Why do I not trust Tesla’s numbers? Aren’t they hand assembling these cars? How can they possibly have high margins?
They are only burning about $10 million a day - so they must be making money somewhere - oh wait…
When I think of hand built - Rolls Royce, super cars , high end, etc comes to mind.. But with Tesla? One review compared the build quality to a 90’s economy car - think they were being nice.
https://twitter.com/brokentesla
My favorite - “Warning: car my not restart” - At least you get a heads up about being stranded!
There is a Model X at work, the driver side doors look noticeably misaligned.
They actually were trying to automate every single thing and went way too far in the automation push which resulted in Musk famously stating “Humans are underrated”:
“A lot of the hoped-for automation was counterproductive. It’s not like we knew it would be bad, because why would we buy a ticket to hell? We don’t actually want to go for hell. We just didn’t realize it was a ticket to hell. We thought it would be good, but it was not good. That applies to a great deal of the automation.”
“There are parts of it that are completely automated, no person there at all. And then there are parts of it which are completely manual, no machines there at all. Then there are parts of it that are partly automated and partly manual.”
At least until the Germans catch up:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-12/german-e-cars-will-catch-up-with-tesla-in-coming-years-study
I hope the Germans do actually build some good EVs and en masse. Once the Germans actually do “catch up”, then the transition from ICE cars to EVs will be well on its way. So far though, all they seem to be able to through out is concept cars which will be coming in 1-3 years.
*throw out
EVs and batteries are absolutely filthy. Hydrogen fuel cell is the future.
Already happening. MB, BMW, Audi / Porsche / VW have several hybrids available. The e-hybrid Cayenne does 0-60 in 4.7 seconds.Which is pretty amazing. The days of ICE (the car not the agency) is indeed numbered.
I’ll admit that it was pretty cool to see VW obliterate the Pike’s Peak record in an all-electric vehicle. Now I want to see that all-electric mass market car that has over 200 miles of range.
Fuel cells are the future? You’ve got to be kidding right? EVs are at least 3 times more efficient that hydrogen fuel cells and fuel cells are an environmental disaster. Fuel cells are hype and misdirection that is designed to keep the entire US fleet running on ICE for as long as possible because fuel cells really can’t work.
Chevy Bolt is rated at 238 miles per charge.
That is really funny. The individual cars make a profit, but the whole company makes a loss. Accountants are smart.
Maybe. Give it time though. Costs a lot of capital to invest in R&D, new production plants, robots, battery factories, etc. Let’s see what Q4 looks like.
Tesla 3 makes profit because its customer base is still largely Leonardo DiCaprio and his ilk who don’t care about spending an extra $20K for the nameplate. They aren’t going to get that from your average $70K household in Peoria.
200 miles, big whoop. My car can get twice that on the highway. And it refuels in under 5 minutes. I’m flipping tired of hearing about the cars. Show me the charging stations.
Here’s the super charging network:
https://www.tesla.com/supercharger
Seems robust enough for my purposes. Also, extended range Model 3 is 310 miles.
The $70k household in Peoria is buying the massive F-150s and driving them to work, even though they are not construction and have no need of the truck.
ChargePoint network on top of that is pretty extensive too:
https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point
Where is the $35000 model and how many orders does Tesla have at the price point it is really selling vehicles? The fact that production is dropping like a stone on the Bloomberg tracker is probably a strong hint.
Not sure what you’re referring to Dan. The Bloomberg Tesla tracker shows a steady ramp up from Q4 of 2017 to recent. Estimate is that they are doing 4300 Model 3s per week. They did 5k model 3s last week plus 2k Model S/X, then took a few days off on the line for vacation. The sustainable 5k model 3 per week seems possible now only with great effort, but in 2-3 months, 10k may well be the norm. Q3 and Q4 results will be interesting.
From Bloomberg today:
Tesla’s average weekly output in 2017 = 1,949
Tesla’s average weekly output in first half of 2018 = 3,378
Peak weekly production at end of June = 6,944
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-weekly-output/
Tesla obviously has a ways to go before they achieve real efficiencies compared to legacy auto plants, but the data shows meaningful progress and the recent profitability analyses of model 3 are all good omens.
Tesla isn’t going to sell a base $35k model until they sell through demand for premium, all-wheel drive, and extended range demand.
While it had recovered from 3908 per week on July 11th, the 4330 per week for today is a long way from the end of June number and still substantially below the 5000 per week level promised by Musk. Delivery times are as low as a month for the cars it is really making so how long will the backlog last?
I seem to recall that they took a few days off when they hit the 5K mark, so that may explain the backsliding. I also think Musk was pretty clear that 5k is possible now, but with great effort. 5k needs to be easy peasy, which is what the goal is in a month or so. Let’s see if they can make that.
BTW, Tesla has sharply reduced the cobalt in its batteries. It is critical to preventing fires. Maybe it does have an improved design or maybe it is just making trial attorneys happy. Only time will tell.
“Last year [2017], electric vehicle battery cost dropped down to $227/kWh, according to a report. Tesla claimed to be “below $190/kWh” at the time. We estimate that it would need to be below $100/kWh to enable the price of the Tesla Semi and it will also help Tesla be profitable with the Model 3.”
https://electrek.co/2018/05/03/tesla-model-3-battery-cells-rare-data-energy-density-cobalt/
Ironically, I have a bank of 1Kwhr+ lead acid batteries in my house bank that cost less than that.
Tesla isn’t going to sell a base $35k model until they sell through demand for premium, all-wheel drive, and extended range demand.
Agreed, it’s totally logical. Back when they first started taking reservations I was tempted by the thought of a dual motor AWD performance model at 50k or so. At 80k or so not so much. I’ll just keep sitting and watching…
Outside of the 400K waiting list for the $35K version - how many want the $50k+ they are actually selling?
Several things I’ve read lead me to believe it’s not a big list and at a 5K a week build they will run out of demand really quick. Musk said they would build 5000 cars a week so they did (well who really knows) - but is there demand to keep this up - some think not.
Well, I’m not on the waiting list, though my father owns a P 100 D model S and after having driven that car I won’t buy anything other than a Tesla. I’m kind of just waiting until the backlog isn’t so big. Also, I don’t think I will be able to get the full $7500 tax credit because our AGI won’t be over $100k this year since I picked up way fewer hours at the hospital (more kiddo duties). So, there is no rush really. I was actually wondering if once 100k model 3’s get out in the US, some more model S’s might get put out on the resell market with unlimited supercharging.
I’m not an early adopter type on the dispersion curve (probably more of an early majority type). I wonder how many people are like me, interested but not in the list.
I actually want the $50k one, but admittedly it’s a bit of a budget stretch. It’s not out of my budget, it’s just that I’m a tight wad and don’t like to spend (hence why I had an eBike for the past year and a half).
The most expensive car I’ve purchased is a Honda Civic for about $18k. By my math, a Tesla saves me like $1k in gas per year at 12k miles driven. I think over a 10 year time frame the true cost to own is about on par with a $25k sedan considering other savings from maintenance. I’m willing to pay a premium for the full EV factor and for autopilot, which is really nice in stop and go driving.
Elektrek did a report of Tesloop, a city to city shuttle service in CA (Los Angeles, Orange County, Palm Springs, and San Diego) run only by Teslas that hit 400k miles. Their reported maintenance cost was 19,000 or about $0.05/mile. This cost breaks down to $6,700 for general vehicle repairs and $12,200 for regularly scheduled maintenance.
They contrast their costs with those of running the service with a Lincoln Town Car instead of a Model S or Mercedes GLS class instead of a Model and estimates that a Lincoln Town Car or Mercedes GLS class’ combined maintenance cost to be around $88,500 ($0.22/mile) and $98,900 ($0.25/mile) respectively over 400,000 miles.
From yahoo..
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/tesla-model-3-more-signs-013000392.html
I like Tesla is pushing EV and getting the ball rolling. Tesla QC seems very spotty, but yet to read a bad thing about the driving experience. Too bad Musk is a flake. Would be nice to see someone who know how run a car company running Telsa.
Musk really went overboard in criticizing the diver rescuing the Thai boys when the diver knocked Musk’s submarine rescue device. He is reminding me a bit of Trump lately, prone to pointless Twitter outbursts that are divisive.
North Dallas, TX Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY As Wholesale Exit From Housing Accelerates
https://www.zillow.com/north-dallas-dallas-tx/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
The Vlad and Donald Show – A Glorious Blow for Peace!
by David Stockman
‘Between them, they left CNN’s nattering nabobs of neocon nonsense sounding like the shrieking monkeys they actually are. And that’s to say nothing of the fools they made out of the newly minted liberal and progressive warmongers on the Dem side of the aisle in Washington or the so-called journalists who fill 90% of the space in the so-called mainstream media with endless pro-war propaganda.’
‘But most of all it was the single greatest blow to the War Party since it turned Imperial Washington into a colossal menace bent on global hegemony when the Soviet Union slithered off the pages of history in 1991.’
https://original.antiwar.com/David_Stockman/2018/07/16/the-vlad-and-donald-show-a-glorious-blow-for-peace/
pretty accurate. Dems and Neocons going bezerk.
I hadn’t seen that kind of a media anti-Trump frenzy since the 2016 election. I listen to the NBC nightly news on the radio. They had about five minutes of impartial reporting and I actually said, ‘Wow.’ Then it returned to propaganda. After the news they had an hour-long Trump-bashing special. The one anchor said in his best anchor voice, ‘Trump blames America’, and then plays the clip where DJT says America is partially at fault. Which is true. Things like saying even Republicans are denouncing Trump, then quoting McCain and Jeff Flake, avowed Never Trumpers since the beginning. Things like that. It was quite a frenzy.
Lloyd Blankfein is no fan of Trump but said he admired the way DJT had “disintermediated” the media. He’s done it multiple ways, one way is using the Web.
Realize that the disintermediation makes many powerful and influential people very unhappy. And they didn’t become powerful and influential as a result of their passivity.
Also realize things like Net Neutrality help free speech. Yes, support for it was led by a “grass roots” movement of tech titans. But it also had supporters like the EFF. And it was titans vs. titans (tech giants vs. infrastructure giants).
Once you let the people who control the pipes determine what information can get through those pipes, the camel’s nose is in the tent. It could be totally innocuous at first but there aren’t that many companies in physical infrastructure (they’re “natural monopolies“). If you want to control what gets through, you only have to influence a few people.
And information is perhaps the most important commodity of all (e.g. gotta know where the food is to go get it - that’s information; gotta know how to take shelter, etc).
I’ve found a useful exercise is to ask purported pro-Trump people things that they think Trump is not doing well or a mistake he has made and then to ask anti-Trump people something they think he is doing well. It’s a good exercise in critical thinking and helps people get off the tribalism band wagon.
Neuromance:
100% agree. Data is a commodity in ways we can’t possibly fully appreciate now. We absolutely must get our heads around how and why this fact is so important. But nope sheeple would rather tune to their FB feeds.
I’m betting you’ll enjoy one of my favorite writers:
http://www.epsilontheory.com/fiat-money-fiat-news/
In relation to Hunt’s article on fiat news above: Watch Episode 7 of the Human Longevity Project. Take note about whats said about “synaptic saturation.” IE info overload and how the brain reacts to this, from a science perspective, and how its affecting the kids of today. RESIST! Hunt thinks we’ve seen nothing yet in terms of sheer volume of news!, thereby drowning out news.
While we’re at it, we can seque over to politics as well-all of us can come away better for reading this one I believe.
http://www.epsilontheory.com/letter-from-a-birmingham-museum/
Seems normal…
$7,344.60 Bitcoin price
+$694.15 Since yesterday (USD)
+10.44% Since yesterday (%)
Shill on…
https://globalcoinreport.com/bitcoin-btc-price-spike-expected-10000-as-crypto-market-catches-steam/
Billionaire Marc Lasry sees bitcoin reaching up to $40,000 as it becomes more mainstream and easier to trade
The price of bitcoin could reach up to $40,000 as it becomes more mainstream and easier to trade, billionaire investor Marc Lasry says.
In December, Lasry expressed regret about not buying bitcoin sooner, saying he should’ve bought the cryptocurrency when it was at $300 just a couple of years ago.
Berkeley Lovelace Jr. | @BerkeleyJr
Published 59 Mins Ago Updated 47 Mins Ago
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/18/marc-lasry-bitcoin-to-hit-40000-dollars-as-it-becomes-more-mainstream.html
“94,785,000 Not in Labor Force; At 62.9%, Labor Force Participation Stuck Near 38-Year Low”
https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/susan-jones/no-records-set-august-number-employed-americans-drops-participation-rate
“Can’t you hear, can’t you hear that thunder? …. You better run, you better take cover!” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4sKNJAwIkk
“The fact is that the Fed HAS TO act to stop the bond bubble from bursting. And it’s going to do this by crashing stocks, and driving capital into the bond market to force yields lower.”
Why would the Fed want to crash the stock market after so many years of supporting it?
People who worked all their lives contributing to their 401k accounts will be put down like feral dogs to save the god almighty 10-yr treasury bond.
Pepperell, MA Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY While Housing Industry Attempts To Conceal Housing Bust
https://www.movoto.com/pepperell-ma/market-trends/
This current massive housing bubble seems much longer in duration and more stubborn to pop. It’s now 2018 and prices have been accelerating in the US since 2011/2012. I seem to recall the last bubble falling apart sooner.
July 16, 2018
“A recent survey of Utah business leaders reveals a healthy level of confidence in the current economy, but less bullishness when it comes to the near future. Wages are not keeping up with the cost of living, particularly when it comes to housing. Since 1991, housing prices have risen faster than household income by a factor of 10.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10494
“Since 1991, housing prices have risen faster than household income by a factor of 10.”
Could one argue that the seeds of the mania were planted in the ashes of the 1991-1992 recession? The last time I recall abundant inventory of homes available for sale was in 1992.
“…the ashes of the 1991-1992 recession?”
The end of the cold war in Europe recession?
“Peace Dividend” recession?
Just about 12 months ago the government decided to back mortgages from people that have above a 44% debt to income ratio. That was a major shot in the arm for the house market as 1/5 houses are bought with a DTI close to 50%. Secondly, the conventional loan limits were raised 7% in January. Another shot in the arm.
Add to that the government allowing 3% down payments and altering the rules to allow seller concessions to count as a down payment.
Plus most of the past 12 months, mortgage rates still below 4%.
But despite all these boosts, home sales are starting to decline YOY as mortgage rates ticket up. Once we start lapping the DTI and loan limit increase, sales and prices should likely will show a flat or downward trend.
But you never know what the government can do next to boost housing. Very likely loan limit increase. Maybe an expanded tax break. Who knows.
Globalist Ted Deutch no like Infowars
DEM CONGRESSMAN PRESSURES FACEBOOK TO BAN INFOWARS DURING LIVE HEARING
Paul Joseph Watson | Infowars.com - JULY 17, 2018
During the House Judiciary Committee inquiry into social media bias, Deutch attempted to lobby Facebook’s Monika Bickert, Head of Global Policy Management, into banning Infowars content.
“You recently decided not to ban Infowars, can you explain that decision?” asked Deutch, who had spent the previous few minutes demanding to know why content that challenges mainstream narratives about news events is allowed on YouTube.
https://www.infowars.com/dem-congressman-pressures-facebook-to-ban-infowars-during-live-hearing/
Good housing article
+1
Mortgage Rates Surge As Bond Market Craters
https://www.investopedia.com/news/rising-mortgage-rates-starting-pressure-property-values/
Wither PMs?
Gold on the verge of first tumble into correction territory in nearly 2 years
By Mark DeCambre
Published: July 18, 2018 7:48 a.m. ET
Silver futures are down 12.4% from their peak in January
…
Former Congressman Ron Paul blamed the “secret government” for fanning the flames of hysteria over President Trump’s meeting with Vladimir Putin.
By Paul Joseph Watson | INFOWARS.COM Wednesday, Jul 18, 2018
“It’s hard to say, but we usually describe that there is a secret government that likes to control things and most people know what we talk about when we talk about the ‘deep state.’ And they do have a lot of clout, they are very much involved in the media and the leadership of both parties, so both parties and the media are very, very, annoyed with Trump [being so] independent,” said Paul.
Trump was savaged by the media for putting Russia’s interests before America’s when he appeared to throw the nation’s intelligence agencies “under the bus”.
However, Trump was clearly referring to elements of the deep state who control the intelligence agencies, the secret government that exploits America’s name and resources to further its own interests.
https://www.newswars.com/ron-paul-secret-government-responsible-for-fanning-russia-hysteria/
“Canadian Dollar Lower As Commodity Prices Crater”
https://www.marketsnow.com/daily-updates/canadian-dollar/2018-07-17