The Housing Bubble

The Sacramento Bee reports from California. “Just as when the market was rising spectacularly and sellers simply priced their houses thousands of dollars higher than their neighbors’ sales prices, homeowners, real estate agents, builders and even appraisers confess to some sense of winging it on the down side these days.”

“The old standby of measuring comparable neighborhood sales is proving undependable amid falling prices, excess inventory of resale and new homes and reluctant buyers who firmly believe prices will fall further still.”

“‘It used to be a mathematical equation,’ says Placer County real estate agent Kate Tustin. Now with a record inventory of houses for sale, she says the old math has given way to quantifying a house’s ‘emotional component.’ On such vague notions of the heart does pricing now rest.”

“Real estate agents have spent much of the year complaining that homeowners were in denial and refusing to cut their price despite daily evidence to the contrary. Many are still resisting. (Broker) Mike Lyon says the market may decline another 10 percent, and still sellers aren’t convinced.”

“‘About half the sellers are out in la-la land,’ he says. ‘That’s better than before. Half are serious and are starting to reduce their price. I still think only 10 to 20 percent of the market is priced to sell.’”

“That doesn’t surprise Barry Schwartz, professor of psychology and economics at Pennsylvania’s Swarthmore College, who has studied the issue. For most people, he says, the joy felt when investments such as housing gain in value is greatly outweighed by the pain felt when those same investments lose money, even when the loss isn’t real at all.”

“‘If the baseline is their initial asking price, then people are consigned to misery,’ Schwartz says. ‘They will feel their loss on what’s probably the best single financial transaction of their lives.’”

“One huge issue that most sellers don’t pay attention to: New-home builders are exempt from such personal distress. ‘They have the ability to discount more than you do,’ Lyon says. ‘They look at it more from a business sense, and it’s easy for them to cut prices because they’re not in love with their homes.’”

“At William Lyon Homes in Elk Grove recently, sales representatives were handing visitors to their model homes an imitation credit card. ‘Our gift to you … $40,000,’ it states. Developers are now cutting prices outright. The combination of incentives and price cuts can top $150,000 in some cases.”

“Builders, who are still putting up more houses than there are buyers, say they are discounting heavily in attempts to ‘find the market.’”

“When Michael Castro decided to sell a house he owns in Citrus Heights, he considered his ideal asking price. Then he whacked it by $30,000. He also decided to pay the buyer’s closing costs on a four-bedroom house listed at $359,000.”

“‘I’m not being greedy,’ says the Roseville investor. ‘I’m going to make money on the home. And a prospective buyer will go in with a good feeling.’”

“Days ahead will tell if he priced correctly. But Castro’s decision symbolizes how hard it is for sellers to set a sale price for their homes in a market where many traditional pricing yardsticks no longer seem to apply.”

“In this unstable pricing environment, banks and appraisers are becoming the ultimate judges of a home’s value. Banks are increasingly watchful that they don’t loan more money than a house is worth. They may have to take it back in a foreclosure.”

“Such fears are prompting banks to more closely monitor appraisers who are themselves finding it harder to determine values, said appraiser John Ferguson. Appraisers must compare at least three current sales of similar houses along with real estate listings that may be showing lower asking prices than those sales.”

The San Francisco Chronicle. “The number of permits issued for new-home construction last month tumbled in California, the most-recent piece of statistical evidence to show that the housing market has turned sour. Builders received permits for 11,590 homes, including houses, apartments and condos, in September, down 47 percent from a year ago.”

“More than half of the decline in permits issued statewide can be attributed to a decrease in construction in Southern California, particularly in San Bernardino and Riverside counties outside of Los Angeles, as well as in Sacramento and San Diego.”

“New housing permits in most of the Bay Area also declined. New construction permits in Alameda and Contra Costa counties fell 42 percent compared with a year ago, while new starts in San Francisco, San Mateo and Marin counties dropped 71 percent.”

“‘The first and sharpest corrections are always in new homes, because existing homeowners have the option of waiting and they are wedded to the price their neighbors got,’ said Stephen Levy, director of Palo Alto’s Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy. ‘New homes have a high carrying cost and developers need to move that inventory.’”

The Press Democrat. “The skyline of Santa Rosa is on the brink of a transformation brought by three high-rise buildings that promise big-city living in the heart of Sonoma County’s hub city.”

“But there are questions about whether there are enough buyers. Some planners, such as Santa Rosa’s Laura Hall, wonder if people will snap up the residential units in the 12- and 14-story buildings. ‘People are flocking downtown. I don’t know if it’s to high rises,’ she said.”

“‘I tend to think high rises are a bit inhumane,’ said Hall. ‘It’s great to have more people living downtown. I love all that. But we could be an awesome six-story town, like Paris.’”

“City officials and business leaders acknowledge some uncertainty about how strong the market is for the $500,000 condominiums developers are planning in the buildings.”

“A $50,000 study commissioned by the city and released in December found Santa Rosa could absorb 50 to 100 units a year of new downtown housing.”

“The number of units planned for the three buildings is 395 total. But with other downtown projects recently built or in the pipeline, the number on the horizon is about 600 units downtown.”

The US News and World report looks at Arizona. “Roger Maehler has good reason to feel smug about the panoramic mountain views from his new backyard. ‘I think I got a good deal,’ the Scottsdale, Ariz., resident says of the acre-plus adobe ranchette he snagged last week for $655,000-a 23 percent discount from the original $850,000 asking price.”

“Complete with swimming pool, spa, and a big-screen TV in the great room, the sprawling five-bedroom property was high on his list when he began shopping for a new home in May. But like many buyers these days, Maehler decided to hold off and see how the weakening market shook out over the summer. ‘I guess it was worth the wait,’ he says.”

“(In) the Phoenix area, the number of homes on the market has more than doubled to 45,000 since last October. ‘I literally could have spent eight hours a day, five days a week looking at houses,’ says Maehler, who toured more than 30 properties before making a bid.”

“Economist Mark Zandi says it could take a ‘Roto-Rooter’ to finally flush stubborn sellers-and their market-clogging inventory-from real-estate listings.”

“In the short run, he expects the market could stabilize somewhat. ‘But it could very well be a dead-cat bounce,’ the economist says of the chance that a strong economy and persistent inflation will push up mortgage interest rates-just as sellers move to relist their houses in the spring. If that happens, ‘it’ll come right out of housing prices again.’”

The Gazette Journal from Nevada. “New condominium projects for downtown Reno are sprouting up like Starbucks in downtown Seattle. But for all the proposed condo projects, including eight major condo towers planned to be built through 2009, there is a critical question; is there a large enough market for condos in downtown Reno?”

“According to the assessor’s data, 72 condos, or 58 percent, have been sold to buyers with addresses other than 200 W. Second St., signifying them as second-home owners. Of those, 18 condos are owned by people in Reno-Sparks, but with a different mail address.”

“Nearly 2,000 downtown condo units are in some phase of planning or construction. But few of the recent flurry of announced condo projects have opened to residents, which means that the effect of the new downtown residents is something still on the horizon.”

“‘The major ones aren’t built yet, so I don’t know how that will be,’ (retailer) Denise Rush said. ‘I hope it will be good.’”

“Debbie Branby, VP of the California Avenue Merchants Association, says she hopes the new residents and the retailers feed off each other, Branby envisions California Avenue being something similar to some of the more quaint neighborhoods in San Francisco.”

The Review Journal from Las Vegas. “Many homeowners in Las Vegas are ‘upside down’ on their home mortgages, owing more than their home is worth, largely because lenders came to rely on inexperienced appraisers who predicated their business on speed and fees in the past few years, a local real estate appraiser said.”

“Lender pressure, a major problem in the residential field, has been passed on to the homeowner in some markets, said Ronald James, president of the Las Vegas chapter of the Appraisal Institute.”

“‘We are seeing assignments where the home is not worth what was paid within the past two years, or refinanced for,’ James said. ‘In that case, there’s no equity. That’s how a person ends up upside down.’”

“James looked specifically at new housing developments in the northwest valley. People who bought there two years ago are now finding they can’t sell those homes for what they owe, he said. One person bought a home for $460,000 and added a $40,000 swimming pool. Even if he finds a buyer at $500,000, after he pays broker commissions, transfer taxes and legal fees, he’s still ‘behind the eight-ball,’ James said.”

“‘The market’s not there,’ he said. ‘We as appraisers don’t determine value. It’s the market.’”

“Observers say some people may have taken a risk by purchasing more house than they could afford simply because they were offered creative financing, a danger for those who bought at the peak of the real estate bubble.”

“‘I predict that things will be bad in Reno, where we have 6,000 houses for sale with less than 500,000 people,’ retired investor Gary Anderson said. ‘We already have a disaster. Add to this mess mortgage and appraisal fraud, the huge amount (of equity) people have taken out of their homes for cars and boats and tightening of lending standards and you have a disaster waiting to happen.’”

“The median price of a new home fell to $329,897 in August from $337,272 in July. SalesTraq President Larry Murphy said new prices are being propped up by $20,000 to $40,000 in incentives and upgrades offered by home builders. Those incentives must be factored into the true value of a house, appraiser James said.”

“‘According to Fannie Mae, you have to deduct dollar-for-dollar concessions,’ he said. ‘All the guidelines say that all appraisals are a reflection of actual cash value, the cash that goes in the seller’s pocket. If it’s a $100,000 home and he gives $10,000 in concessions, the value of the house is $90,000.’”

“(Small mortgage brokers) ‘make their money off of points, passing the loans on to major lenders,’ James said. ‘They’re the ones pushing it. That’s how they make their existence.’ Mitch Ohlbaum, principal of Legend Mortgage in Los Angeles, said mortgage brokers aren’t the only ‘pushing’ force. On the refinance side, homeowners are pushing to get that equity line and make the deal work, he said.”

“‘On the purchase side, you have Realtors pushing because their business is down and they’re starving. There (are) 500,000 starving Realtors in California,’ Ohlbaum said.”

“Glenn Goodman has had his Las Vegas home on the market since March and eventually lowered the price to $379,000 from $430,000. Interesting, he said, that he now has in his possession an offer for the home at $460,000. ‘The buyer wants us to give her $57,000 cash at the close of escrow. Obviously this buyer will then just walk away from the house, leaving it to be foreclosed upon,’ Goodman said. ‘It smells like fraud all over it. The Realtor’s got to be in on it.’”

The Miami Herald reports from Florida. “The sale of an aging Dania Beach hotel appears to have fallen through, stalling plans for one of the first major redevelopment projects in the heart of downtown. Now the date for closing on the Pirate’s Inn has come and gone, and the seller, Hollywood Investments Group, is looking for other options.”

“‘The sale is not going through, the contract is terminated,’ said Robert Fileni, who owns Hollywood Investments. The sale had been in the works for about a year.”

The St Petersburg Times. “Here are the latest attempts by builders, in these slow times on the housing front, to persuade buyers to sign a contract now. If you sell at a loss, we’ll make up the difference.”

“If the final selling price is less than the original home price, Hannah Bartoletta Homes will pay the sellers the difference between the two: up to 10 percent of the original price or $100,000, whichever is lower.”

“The offer is good only for owner-occupants who have lived in the house at least 18 months, and there are some other time limits and restrictions. No flippers seeking a quick profit need apply. ‘I’m mad at ‘em,’ Hannah said of get-rich-quick investors.”

“Lennar will include a voucher for a new Ford Mustang coupe with the purchase of certain homes for which a contract is signed by Tuesday and closed by Nov. 20. The promotion is good at South Fork in Hillsborough County; Heritage Pines and The Verandahs in Pasco; and Hernando Oaks and Hampton Hills in Hernando.”

The Herald Tribune. “Joseph Michalak can’t wait to show you his new pad, every luxurious, cavernous square foot of it. There are 3,000 to explore.”

“But more than the amenities in his South Venice home, Michalak likes the price tag: $1,500 a month, or about $1,000 less than what he would pay on a monthly mortgage for the $400,000 home. Southwest Florida’s soft housing market is proving a boon for renters who suddenly can find swank homes with top-of-the-line amenities at slashed prices.”

“The phenomenon is driven by investors who gobbled up homes during Florida’s 2004-05 real estate boom and now are unable to sell at a profit. Many have resorted to renting to help pay mortgages.”

“Many investors are renting $300,000-and-up homes for $1,000 to $1,500 per month, said investor Ellie Vratanina of Baltimore. Vratanina, who manages or owns about a dozen properties in Sarasota, shrugs that ‘you can’t flip ‘em like you used to.’”

“For renters looking to upgrade, now is the time. Michalak learned as much when he moved into his home in deed-restricted Island Walk. His last apartment, one-third the size for only $100 less, doesn’t even compare, he said. ‘With the palm trees, the scenery, the lake right behind me?’ he said. ‘Not even close.’”

“Scott Corbridge, president of the National Association of Residential Property Managers’ Sarasota-Bradenton chapter and the broker for the home Cobb rents, said the home’s owner lowered the rent from $1,510 to $1,395 to find a tenant. Corbridge said he has seen other investors cut rental rates $200 and $300 per month to attract tenants.”

“Kassandra Williams took advantage of price-slashing when she found her Palmer Ranch apartment. When Williams arrived in Sarasota a year ago, she turned the key on a $1,000-a-month, one-bedroom condo in a community that includes a hot tub, two pools, tennis courts and a fitness center.”

“That was nice, but the deal got even sweeter this month when Williams found a two-bedroom for the same price across the parking lot.”

“Investors cite real estate market saturation as an indicator of why they’ve turned to renters. The number of homes for sale in the Sarasota market jumped 150 percent over the past two years. Meanwhile, homes are selling 35 percent slower and 15 percent cheaper than a year ago.”

“The rental market has skewed so far toward tenants that sometimes peddling luxury isn’t enough. Horse and Chaise Rentals and Property Management of Venice has twice as many listings as last year and ‘if we go over $1,500, forget it, they won’t rent,’ said broker associate Sue Horner.”

“Horner said the glut of condos on the market is driving prices down. Island Park, a luxury condo complex a half-mile from the beach on Venice Island, has $400,000 condos renting for $975, Horner said.”

“Most were bought by investors looking for a quick profit. ‘They thought they would buy them and flip them. Well, the flip didn’t work,’ she said. ‘They cry because $1,000 doesn’t begin to cover the mortgage.’”

The Denver Post from Colorado. “Two years ago, Colorado issued a warrant to arrest Taiwan Lee, a state prisoner who had vanished on parole. He hadn’t gone far. While police looked for him, he bought three houses at inflated prices in Arapahoe County with the help of lenders who put up the entire $1.9 million.”

“After he was caught and jailed, he managed to buy two more. Until the foreclosures commenced, Lee owned five villas in an affluent gated community while living behind prison bars 150 miles away.”

“In the Denver metro area alone, more than 1,000 homes sold for at least 110 percent of the original asking price in the 18 months ending in June, according to research.”

“The Denver Post searched foreclosure records on 739 of these homes sold between January 2005 and April 2006. Already, 55 have been foreclosed, or one of every 13 homes, an extraordinary number even in a state where one of every 408 homes is in foreclosure.”

“‘It clearly is a problem,’ said Colorado Attorney General John Suthers. ‘We have been looking at house purchases over cost and money going back to the buyers.’ Suthers’ consumer protection chief, Jan Zavislan, said the office is investigating various participants in inflated sales, including buyers, sellers, appraisers, mortgage brokers, real estate agents and title companies.”‘

“We’re looking at potentially every participant in these transactions,’ Zavislan said. ‘We’re just seeing way too many of these things.’”

“Critics say mortgage companies have little incentive to ferret out inflated sales because they bundle and resell their home loans to Wall Street investors, taking their profits and diluting fraud losses in large pools of mortgage-backed bonds.”

“These securities get ’sold in little pieces all over the world,’ said Lou Barnes, a Colorado mortgage bank owner. ‘It makes it very difficult to figure out who, if anyone, bears any responsibility for the flow of Colorado’s foreclosures.’”

“Marc Loewenthal, a senior VP of New Century Financial Corp., says his company’s mortgage subsidiary financed and resold loans on four of the allegedly fraudulent villa purchases. But ‘the investor has the right to demand we repurchase the loan if there is fraud involved,’ he said. ‘We’re at risk. We do have an interest in keeping fraud down.’”

“New Century grew concerned enough about fraud to install a new screening technology early this year, he said. As a result, ‘we have stopped close to $1 billion in loans.’”

The Rocky Mountain News. “Prompted by local business leaders’ concerns over the area’s real estate market, economist Patty Silverstein has issued a report that says Denver’s high foreclosure rate will continue, somewhat abated, into 2007.”

“Residential foreclosures in metro Denver are on pace to hit a record high in 2006 of about 19,200. Through the third quarter, 14,132 foreclosure cases were opened in the seven-county region, a 34.2 percent increase over the January-September period in 2005.”

“What’s happening, Silverstein said, is a longer lag between the negative job-loss news and the foreclosures, when compared with Denver’s problems in the 1980s. During the last great foreclosure boom, it was roughly two years between Colorado’s job losses and its high foreclosures, Silverstein said. Colorado’s recent job- loss peak, in 2002 and 2003, is now three to four years in the past.”

“‘Given the severity of it and the slow growth since then, we’ve had a longer lag,’ she said.”

“New or recently popular mortgage products also have played a role, Silverstein notes, and ARMs represent a disproportionate share of Colorado foreclosures: In the second quarter of 2006, 52.5 percent of the loans in foreclosure in Colorado were ARMs, compared with 35.7 percent nationally.”

The Denver Post. “Despite solid growth in jobs, incomes and population, metro Denver’s foreclosure rate is on track to hit 1.7 percent of all homes this year, according to an analysis. That rate is a midpoint between last year’s 1.3 percent and a record 2.1 percent set in 1988, when an oil bust drove up unemployment levels and more people were leaving the metro area than moving in.”

“The high foreclosure rate in Colorado, which has led the nation for the past seven months, is part of a downward trend in the overall housing market.”

“Builder incentives and price cuts are putting pressure on the median prices of existing single-family homes, which fell 2.2 percent in the metro area and 2.5 percent nationally year-over- year for September. There were 31,450 unsold properties in the metro Denver market in September, compared with 27,248 a year earlier.”

“For the past five years, home prices haven’t appreciated in a ‘foreclosure belt’ stretching from Weld to Adams to Arapahoe County, said Lou Barnes, a mortgage banker in Boulder. Overbuilding has dampened price appreciation, which has contributed to high foreclosures in those areas because homeowners have less equity and aren’t able to sell quickly, Barnes said.”

“Economist Patricia Silverstein links the genesis of the current foreclosure cycle to the loss of 61,200 metro-area jobs in 2002 and 2003. Many workers had difficulty replacing the incomes they lost in the downturn and appear to have turned to higher-risk mortgage products such as no-money-down and adjustable-rate loans to stretch their finances.”

“Broker Phil Heter, whose company only sells foreclosed homes on behalf of lenders and Fannie Mae, said that while there are huge differences between now and 1989, there appears to be no end to the number of foreclosed homes hitting the Denver-area market.”

“‘We were busy before, but it was like they just opened the faucet wide open 90 days ago,’ Heter said.”

What do you see in your housing market this weekend? Builder incentives? How about a related television program? “Real estate brokers and others looking for a deal gathered outside the Fresno County Courthouse for this home foreclosure auction. The number of foreclosed homes in the Valley has risen dramatically these past few months.”

“Foreclosure specialist Billy Richardson said, ‘Families got into these adjustable rates about 1-2 years ago. These interest rates are going up and now their mortgage rates are sometimes doubling. They’re not able to make these payments, so a lot more homes go over here to the auction downtown.’”

“California’s housing production plunged 47% last month as builders curtailed construction while working to whittle down their existing supplies of unsold homes, data released Friday showed.”

“Now they are trying to unload their so-called standing inventory of homes that are under construction or completed. ‘Last year we had a waiting list of buyers interested in our homes before they were even built,’ said Wes Keusder, a builder and chairman of the California Building Industry Assn. ‘This year, however, it seems as though we’re the ones who are waiting.’”

“The home builders’ association reported that 45 percent of builders and developers said they cut prices in September to maintain sales volume. The cost of incentives was not reflected in the new-home price data, which suggested that builders were making even less money from each sale than the shrinking official prices would indicate.”

“Cancellations were also left out of the new-home statistics. The Commerce Department records a new home as sold when the buyer and builder sign a contract. The home builders association said that cancellations had jumped by 50 percent in the last year.”

“‘The cancellation rate is really big,’ said Dave Seiders, chief economist of the association. ‘It’s exploded over the last year.’”

The Daily News reports from Massachusetts. “Home builders in MetroWest are re-evaluating the real estate market now that housing prices are decreasing, adjusting marketing tactics and even delaying construction to wait out the cycle. The inventory is increasing because prices are too high, said Laurie Cadigan in Concord, who is president of the Greater Boston Association of Realtors.”

“‘It takes sellers about six months to catch up to buyers’ expectations,’ Cadigan said. ‘Sellers looking to sell at last year’s prices aren’t going to be happy.’”

“Framingham Acquisition LLC changed plans for its 290-unit Arcade project in downtown Framingham because the condo market softened, according to Michael Gatlin, an attorney for the developer. The original plans called for condos to be built in the building but the units were later changed to apartments.”

“‘When you do any kind of project like this, you have to justify it to your lender, the prices you’re getting for the units,’ Gatlin said. The developers ‘found that there were some condo prices that were soft and it seemed like a difficult market to justify to a lender.’”

“Toll Brothers Inc. is building an over-55 development in Marlborough, called the Regency at Assabet Ridge. The developer is using a different approach to moving its homes: getting them on the market as soon as possible, according to Jason Witham.”

“Builders creating more homes for the market are creating even more supply, according to Terry Egan, editor-in-chief of the Warren Group. ‘Any new home built that comes on the market right now is facing a lot of competition,’ Egan said. Not only from other new homes but from an expansive supply of existing homes for sale.”

“‘Right now, buyers have clout that they haven’t had for a long time in Massachusetts. They’re driving hard bargains, and it’s something developers are aware of,’ he said.”

“Lumber yards that supply home builders have also been affected by an increasing supply of homes and downward pressure on home prices. The cost of lumber has declined $35 per 1,000 square feet of board according to David Lamson, chairman of Lamson R.S. & Sons of Hudson. He said it’s because developers aren’t building as many new homes.”

“‘They are not building as much, and they don’t have the demand,’ Lamson said. ‘There’s a glut of houses on the market right now, and all our builders are cutting their prices for the houses to move them. Most every builder has got houses in inventory.’”

“Lumber sales have declined about 15 percent to 20 percent in the Northeast, and particularly in Massachusetts this year, he said.”

From the Record in New Jersey. “It’s a lesson home sellers are learning all over North Jersey. The fizz has gone out of the real estate market, both nationally and in North Jersey.”

“For sellers, all this adds up to one question: How to sell in a buyers’ market? The first answer is probably the most painful: Price it realistically. Just because your neighbor got $600,000 a year ago doesn’t mean you’re going to get $650,000 — or even $600,000.”

“‘A lot of sellers haven’t accepted reality,’ said (agent) Nick Tselepis in Clifton.”

“Nilsa and Edwin Santiago have heard the message, and cut the asking price on their three-bedroom home in the Lakeview section of Paterson. They first listed it in January at $359,900; now it’s listed for $329,900.”

“Although the Santiagos got offers for the house last winter, the best one was for $306,000, well below what they were willing to accept. ‘I guess people don’t want to buy houses now,’ said Nilsa Santiago. She speculated that would-be buyers are scared off by high prices and the fear that house values will continue to fall.”

The Journal News in New York. “A sharply higher number of people in the Lower Hudson Valley this year are finding themselves so far behind in their mortgage payments that they face the loss of their homes. For the first three quarters of this year, compared to the first three quarters of 2005, Westchester actions are up by 21.7 percent, Rockland are up by 49 percent, and Putnam’s are up by 24.9 percent, according to county clerks’ records.”

“Industry observers say they’re not surprised at the trend. Adjustable-rate mortgages that were used by consumers several years ago to buy houses are starting to lock in at higher rates this year.”

“Matthew Ziccardi, a White Plains real estate attorney, said some adjustables can call for new rates of prime plus 2 to 5 percentage points. With prime currently around 8 percent, a borrower who took out a mortgage with an introductory rate of 5 percent or 6 percent interest can now be looking at rates of 13 percent or more, Ziccardi said.”

“‘Equity is a problem now,’ Ziccardi said. Some sellers who took out interest-only mortgages have no equity in the property; ‘They might as well just rent the house,’ he said.”

“Attorney Jessica Bacal of White Plains said she expects the problem to worsen in the year ahead. ‘During periods of inflated values on real estate, many people obtain mortgages that they are unable to meet,’ she said.”

“About five months ago she represented a buyer for a house in the area. The closing nearly didn’t go through, she said, because the seller had trouble raising enough cash to cover closing costs. The seller had to make good on the mortgage, plus a home equity loan, plus a third private loan, ’so he was already in trouble,’ Bacal said.”

Please post off-topic ideas, links and Craigslist finds here.