“A Flip Side To Exuberance” In California
The Orange County Register reports from California. “Orange County’s 122-month streak of rising home prices is over. The decade-long run ended last month when the median price of an Orange County home fell to $620,000, a decline of $2,250 from the median in February 2006, DataQuick reported Monday.”
“‘It looks like it’s hitting its new low level, and it’s going to stay there awhile,’ real estate consultant Walter Hahn said. Hahn attributed the market’s sales slump and stagnating prices to the disappearance of speculators and marginal, first-time buyers using unconventional mortgages.”
“‘That’s gone. It’s just gone,’ he said of those buyers. ‘I’m not sure we’ll ever get up to those sales rates again.’”
“Overall sales were down as well: A total of 2,449 homes changed hands in February, down 16.4 percent from February 2006. It was the 17th consecutive month in which sales declined from the year before, a slump that began in October 2005, DataQuick figures show. The new-home category had the steepest decline in sales, down 36 percent.”
“Orange County had 12,558 homes for sale as of Thursday, according to (broker) Steven Thomas in Aliso Viejo. The inventory of homes for sale has risen steadily since late January, he reported.”
The Union Tribune. “DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage said the real estate market can be thought of as a big oil tanker that takes a long time to change course. ‘I think we’re in a turn and it’s not clear which way we’re coming out of it,’ LePage said.”
“LePage pointed to some sobering statistics. The number of default notices rose to 1,268 last month, up from 499 in February 2006, while foreclosure sales skyrocketed from 40 to 383 over the same period, landing just shy of the all-time record set in October 1996 of 389.”
“For both October 1996 and last month, foreclosures represented 13 percent of total sales. DataQuick’s monthly sales counts do not include foreclosure activity, LePage said.”
The North County Times. “For years now, North County residents have been wondering how high home prices could climb. Were we seeing a housing bubble? As the real estate market cools off, it’s becoming apparent that our sky-high housing prices are due in part to a credit bubble. And that bubble has started to pop.”
“Foreclosures in San Diego County nearly tripled in 2006, to 13,246, from 4,541 in 2005, according to RealtyTrac. In North County, the company reports, hundreds of properties are in default and heading to foreclosure. In Escondido, 385 properties are in default and 63 are set to be sold at auction. In Oceanside, the figures are 490 properties in default, with 72 going to auction.”
“What’s startling about many of these pending foreclosures is how many involve loans taken out within the last two years, during the subprime surge.”
“Apparently, the sky was the limit when it came to lending standards for loans small and large. Many of the loans in default were in the $400,000-$700,000 range. But one is for $1.7 million and another for $1.2 million. Before it began to tumble, the subprime market was enjoying a penthouse view.”
The LA Times. “In some parts of the state, including the Central Valley, the Inland Empire and San Diego, foreclosures have gone from rare to plentiful in a little more than a year. Real estate appraisers say home values are beginning to be affected.”
“George Hatch, a San Diego appraiser, said he surveyed a group of his colleagues last week. Almost all of them reported that they were running across distressed sales or foreclosures.”
“‘There is a flip side to exuberance, which is that every party has its hangover,’ said Hatch, a 22-year veteran of the business. ‘When your house loses $100,000 in value, that will make you sick all right.’”
“Ray and Ruby Hayes of Yorba Linda said the couple refinanced their home with a sub-prime lender in the spring to get cash to help them make ends meet. ‘We had bad credit but were told that in six months we could refinance and get a better loan with a lower interest,’ he said. But when they tried to refinance, Hayes said, the lender told them they were not eligible for better terms.”
“The Hayeses are now months behind in their payments. ‘Things just spiraled out of control,’ he said.”
“Not everyone is sold on downtown. Christina Yu and Christopher Camargo, renters in Long Beach, visited about a dozen condo and loft projects to learn firsthand what downtown has to offer and were not entirely impressed.”
“‘It wasn’t that long ago that the alleys were filled with derelicts and drug addicts,’ said Camargo. But ‘if I’m going to pay $700,000 for a place, I think it should have a view of the ocean, not someone else’s living room.’”
“The outlook seems hazy. Tighter lending standards and slower appreciation will keep many would-be buyers on the sidelines. Downtown broker Perabo says he’s worried because fewer first-time buyers will be able to qualify now.”
“‘The days of 100% financing are over,’ he said, adding that about 20% to 30% of the first-time buyers he meets with would be unable to buy without improving their credit standing and coming up with a down payment.”
The Desert Sun. “The disclosure by Irvine-based New Century Financial Corp that its bank lenders were pulling funding didn’t come as a shock to some mortgage lenders and bankers in the Coachella Valley.”
“‘The (adjustable-rate mortgage) program was never really designed as a mainstream program,’ said said Jim McPhail, a mortgage finance specialist in Palm Desert. ‘It has come around, and it’s now biting them in the butt.’”
“Home buyers initially may have been able to get more home through such ‘designer’ loan programs, but the long-term impact was pretty easy to predict, said Bill Powers, president of Pacific Western Bank. ‘Whenever you do those types of loans, somebody has to pay the piper some day,’ Powers said.”
“It’s becoming obvious that mortgage lenders will have to be more careful about sizing up loans that people can really qualify for, said Frank Montiforte, loan officer La Quinta. ‘I like that word ‘tightening up’ - it’s the right thing to do,’ Montiforte said.”
The Daily Bulletin. “The California Building Industry Association released a report Monday that showed sales of new homes were down significantly from last year, with California off 18.6 percent since last January and the Inland Empire off 22.3 percent.”
“‘A lot of builders have been very aggressive in offering incentives,’ said economist Jack Kyser. Kyser cited several examples in which houses and condominiums have slashed prices $50,000 or even $100,000 recently.”
“‘The market clearly is still looking for a bottom,’ he said. ‘I don’t think we’ve found it yet.’”
The Merced Sun Star. “John Pinto thought his days of playing Mr. Fix It were over when he sold his 27-year-old house and moved into a brand new subdivision. But months later he discovered what he says was the first of many problems in his new home.”
“Since then, Pinto said, every time he turns around the house needs another repair. Now Pinto is one of 59 homeowners suing developer Ranchwood Homes over what they claim is shoddy construction at the subdivision in Gustine.”
“‘I’m not a sue-happy guy,’ Pinto said. ‘I would like to see Ranchwood get their act together and start building some better quality homes. I would hope that they teach their workers better so that no one else ends up with a lemon. These guys are making good money; there’s no excuse for shoddy workmanship.’”
“The first problem he noticed after buying the 2,545 square-foot house for $420,000 was a crooked second-floor window sill. Then when he wanted to install a sliding door around his bathtub, the worker doing the job showed him that the floor sloped almost one inch from one end to the other.”
“‘The Egyptians built the pyramids over hundreds of acres and they were only off by about a quarter-inch, and these guys couldn’t put in a six-foot floor that’s not off an inch,’ Pinto said.”