“A Negative Domino Effect” In California
The Sacramento Bee reports from California. “A meltdown in the subprime mortgage lending market might mean trouble for a Sacramento-area market many believe is slowly coming out of its housing slump. Last year an estimated 27 percent of area buyers took out subprime loans. Now, many here and across the country are having trouble making payments, threatening the companies that issued the loans.”
“Currently, there are 11,400 existing homes and condos for sale in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties.”
“Nationally, mortgage officials expect the number of subprime loans in 2007 to fall 30 percent from last year. Locally, that might mean thousands fewer loans.”
“‘That takes a whole group of purchases and stops the food chain,’ said John Fabish, president of the Sacramento chapter of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers. Fabish said removing ‘that whole tier of no-equity folks, pretty much all first-time homebuyers, from the buying pool’ can easily start a negative domino effect.”
“‘Business will slow way down. Move-ups will slow way down. If nobody’s there to buy your house, there’s two transactions that don’t happen,’ he said.”
The Santa Cruz Sentinel. “As of March 6 this year, trustee deeds, which transfer ownership of property in default, total 105 for Santa Cruz, Monterey and San Benito counties, an exponential increase from this time last year, when nine such deeds were recorded.”
“Notices of default and properties in foreclosure have doubled in the three counties overall, with rates in Santa Cruz lower than in Monterey.”
“Peter Ogilvie, president-elect of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers sees a need for changes in mortgage industry practices in light of the increase in defaults and foreclosures.”
The Daily News. “Foreclosure activity soared an annual 145.3 percent across California during last year’s fourth quarter to its highest level since 1998, (Dataquick) said.”
“During the last three months of 2006, the DataQuick report showed that 7,445 property owners in Los Angeles County received foreclosure notices, up an annual 113.9 percent. The peak was 21,444 notices in the first quarter of 1996.”
“About 2.03 percent of subprime mortgages in California entered foreclosure, which is more than the 1.83 percent of loans that were already in foreclosure during the third quarter.”
The North County Times. “Stung by bad loans, a worsening credit crunch and a dramatic plunge in its stock price, Accredited Home Lenders announced Tuesday it was considering putting itself up for sale. ‘It’s clear the industrywide issues are really hurting everybody,’ said Bud Leedom, a San Diego-based stock analyst. ‘When one domino falls, it pushes over the domino it’s touching.’”
“The damage is likely to spread beyond the subprime sector to the real estate market as a whole, said analysts such as San Diego-based Rich Toscano and economist Christopher Thornberg. These analysts, who have long warned of a housing ‘bubble,’ say that a stream of must-sell homes re-entering the market will depress home prices by increasing supply.”
“San Diego County, one of the most expensive real estate markets in the country, is especially vulnerable, Toscano and Thornberg said. The price of real estate roughly doubled in the county between 2000 and 2005.”
“The number of foreclosures in San Diego County has nearly tripled from 4,541 in 2005 to 13,249 in 2006, according to RealtyTrac. To put it another way, 1 out of every 229 houses in San Diego County went through foreclosure in 2005. In 2006, 1 out of every 79 homes in San Diego County went through foreclosure.”
The Orange County Register. “New Century Financial of Irvine, once the nation’s second-largest subprime lender, disclosed Tuesday it’s under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission and that it has been subpoenaed in a federal criminal probe.”
“New Century offered no update on its efforts to salvage the business, which has nearly 7,000 employees, including 1,800 in Orange County.”
“As the problems mount, concerns are spreading to other local companies. New Century’s landlord, Maguire Properties of Los Angeles, said Tuesday it could lose $6.5 million if New Century stops paying rent for its Irvine offices, assuming it takes up to a year to find a new tenant for the 267,000 square feet of office space.”
“Maguire also was counting on New Century to occupy the top four floors of a 20-story tower under construction in Irvine.”
The LA Times. “Economists have been arguing for weeks about the crisis in mortgage lending to risky borrowers and whether it could turn the entire economy sour. Wall Street cast its vote Tuesday: It looks like trouble.”
“‘People have been using their homes as their banks,’ said retail industry analyst Adrienne Tennant. ‘When you figure you can’t refinance for the third time, you start wondering, ‘Oh, how am I going to pay for all this?’”
“Of the state’s 5.6 million mortgages, 3.25% were delinquent, or had payments past due, and 0.15% entered foreclosure during the period. Among the state’s 806,022 sub-prime home loans, nearly 11% were delinquent.”
“So far, the housing market in California has fared better than those in many other parts of the country. But the crisis in the sub-prime lending industry threatens to change that, economist Patrick McPherron said.”
“‘All it could take is a few more precipitous falls,’ he said, ‘and the bottom could fall out.’”
The Press Enterprise. “California is among the states hit hardest by late payments on subprime home loans made to borrowers with blemished credit histories, according to new figures released Tuesday. California by far had the most subprime loans being serviced of any state, with more than 806,000.”
“An economist for the mortgage banking group said California, on a year-over-year basis, has been hit harder than many states when it comes to rising delinquencies in the category of subprime home mortgage loans.”
“‘It’s a lot of people with weaker credit who put down smaller down payments on their mortgages,’ said Mike Fratantoni, senior economist for the state mortgage bankers group.”
The Daily Press. “The volume of February home sales swooned in the Victor Valley, falling 36 percent compared to the same period a year ago. Residential sale prices also declined slightly last month, falling 5.5 percent lower than February 2006, according to the Victor Valley MLS.”
“The price per square foot of a home in the High Desert jumped 27.9 percent in 2004, followed by a leap of 39.5 percent the following year before the market began to cool in the middle of 2006.”
“‘Declining affordability is driving down sales volume and home prices,’ said Janie Phillips, a broker in Apple Valley. ‘Prices have been accelerating too rapidly, and incomes have not been able to keep up, so a little price adjustment is a welcome development,’ she said.”
“Much more ominous than the decline in prices or sales volume is the dramatic rise in home foreclosures. ‘Since October, we have seen month-to-month increases in foreclosures of about 100 percent in the Victor Valley market,’ said broker Caroline McNamara.”
“‘Prior to that time, we saw little to no foreclosure activity for about two and a half years because the market was so solvent,’ said McNamara, who specializes in repossessions and foreclosures.”
“‘The drop in home values and the trend toward interest-only financing and other forms of creative lending is causing the rise in foreclosures,’ McNamara said. ‘We have been in a grossly over-inflated and over-built housing market, and we can expect to see a continuation in the correction of home prices.’”