The Yin And Yang Of The Housing Bubble
A report from the Bakersfield Californian. “Wednesday marked the first time in five years that Hudson & Marshall held an auction in Bakersfield. National lenders hire the company to market and move large volumes of bank-owned properties that have been foreclosed upon. When foreclosures were few, Hudson & Marshall had no reason to come to town.”
“As the market fizzles, buyers have more auctions to choose from. Hudson & Marshall might return to Bakersfield twice before year’s end. ‘Our phone doesn’t stop ringing now,’ said Mike Grigg, an agent and auctioneer with a franchise of Pacific Auction Exchange.”
“In Kern County this year, four times as many default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions were filed by the end of May than were filed over the same time period last year, according to RealtyTrac.”
“High-end, custom homes are popping up on auction blocks as well. A 2,680-square-foot, four bedroom Shilo Estates home with a pool comes up for auction June 30, Grigg said. ‘The luxury homes are just not moving at all right now,’ Grigg said.”
“Conrad Nizynski, an investor from Los Angeles, arrived at the Bakersfield Sheraton on the heels of a Hawaii vacation. ‘It was a last-minute thing,’ he said.”
“He left the auction, his first, having placed winning bids on two homes and looking just a bit shell-shocked. ‘That’s what I wanted to do, I wanted to invest,’ Nizynski said. ‘I hope it’s a good investment.’”
The Fresno Bee. “Real estate agents and representatives of the federal Housing and Urban Development Department lamented the skyrocketing number of foreclosures in the central San Joaquin Valley.”
“A soaring foreclosure rate is the fallout of a five-year real estate boom that tripled home values and sparked the creation of new subprime loan programs that helped families buy those more expensive houses.”
“When prices stopped accelerating so rapidly, many of those home buyers couldn’t refinance to a more friendly loan, and defaulted. Since 2006 the situation has gotten worse and many houses have even lost value.”
“In 2006, 1.4% of all houses were in foreclosure, according to RealtyTrac. A recent study calculated that in Fresno a foreclosure lowers the value of homes within one city block an average of $2,259, according to the Sheltering Neighborhoods report.”
“In addition, the foreclosure crisis has caused lenders to tighten standards, making it even more difficult for families facing foreclosure to refinance or buy another house if they’ve already lost theirs.”
The Orange County Register. “It was January, maybe February, when it sunk in. A lull in the car-selling business turned into a noteworthy slump.”
“To Mark Parkinson, who runs a family business that sells five brands of vehicles at the Tustin Auto Mall, it became clear that everything from luxury cars to trucks to fuel-efficient models weren’t selling like they had been. And not just at his lots, at most of his competitors, too.”
“Parkinson has got a good hunch that a troubled local real estate market is one culprit.”
“‘I’m not an economist, I’m a car guy,’ says Parkinson, a 37-year veteran of auto-buying cycles. ‘But in my opinion, when people have all this equity (in their homes) they feel good. They’ll spend. When that equity becomes at risk, they tighten their belts a bit. They’re afraid, ‘I’m losing my savings.’”
“The Big O’s property index has fallen in each quarter for a year now, as dramatically falling home sales and a depressed lending business take their toll. This slice of the Big O index is falling at the steepest annual rate of decline since 1996.”
“The banker index, heavily tied to real estate, is also troubled. It suffers from rising counts of missed mortgage payments and an increase in local bankruptcies. This spring, this measure of local debt collections hit its lowest mark since 2003.”
“Orange County payrolls are growing this year at a 1 percent rate, according to state job stats. That’s not bad, but it’s still half what we’ve seen in recent years.”
“A bulk of the slowdown is linked to real estate woes, as lenders in particular retrench their staffing along with dramatic drops in mortgage-making volumes. In Orange County, for example, lenders made $85 billion worth of loans on local homes and land in the last 12 months, down 22 percent in two years.”
The North County Times. “As lenders begin to seize houses that were purchased in an unusual series of transactions two years ago, investors are attempting to arrange complicated sales and several are beginning to struggle with difficult decisions on whether to file for bankruptcy.”
“Nurses and other middle-class investors bought more than 100 Murrieta-area houses in 2004 and 2005 through a Murrieta mortgage brokerage. The first of those houses fell into the foreclosure process last fall, and the owners began filing lawsuits in January.”
“Stonewood clients often paid far more for their houses than did buyers of comparable houses nearby and, according to numerous neighbors and real estate agents who followed the purchases, $50,000 to $120,000 more than the original asking prices, a pattern that raised eyebrows in the slackening market.”
“At the time the investors bought the houses, prices in surrounding neighborhoods were still rising, a fact that buyers said led them to conclude they were making solid investments. But market prices leveled off without catching up to the investors’ loan balances, leaving them ‘upside down,’ in real estate parlance.”
“Vicky Reiss, the Temecula resident who filed the first lawsuit Jan. 5, bought five houses through Stonewood, according to a local real estate database. She still owed more than $600,000 on her house on East View Way in Murrieta’s Copper Canyon area. A seller offered about $500,000, she said, but the lender didn’t bite. It seized the house earlier this month.”
“‘One down, four to go,’ Reiss said, ruefully.”
“Rising numbers of foreclosure properties coming onto local real estate markets threaten to weigh on home prices at a time when they’ve slipped from record highs.”
“As of June 4, nearly 1,050 lender-owned properties were listed for sale in Riverside County, up from less than a half-dozen in June 2006, according to ZipRealty. Such properties account for about 3.5 percent of the properties for sale in the area, according to the company’s data.”
“Several plaintiffs in the lawsuits allege that they refinanced their primary residences to fund investments. These plaintiffs say they now find themselves struggling with monthly mortgage payments as much as double what they were paying before.”
“‘That’s where I live,’ said Temecula resident Mercy Ferido, who is watching her three investment properties slide into foreclosure. ‘I took another job just to keep up with my payments.’”
The Record.net. “What do you get when you combine a huge number of interest-only and subprime mortgages with a skidding real estate market? Foreclosures, that’s what.”
“And in the case of San Joaquin County, you get the highest metropolitan foreclosure rate in the nation. No. 1. That ranking comes from data out last week from RealtyTrac.”
“How bad it is it here? This bad: In the last year there has been a 49 percent increase in foreclosure activity in San Joaquin County. In two years filings in the county are up by a factor of 18, from 120 to 2,157.”
“Foreclosure notices have been filed on one of every 88 household properties in Stockton. Our foreclosure activity rate is now 7.5 times the national average.”
“Foreclosure notices require publication of a legal advertisement, the agate type notices that fill two or three pages of this newspaper each day. We receive about a dozen new notices each day. Each day.”
“When Sean Snaith headed the UOP’s Business Forecasting Center he liked to predict the housing market here, at a time when the bubble was about as big as it seemed possible to get, would not burst. In fact, he likened the housing market to a soufflé that would slowly sink as it cooled.”
“He was wrong (though hardly alone in that category). The market didn’t just cool. It turned cold even as the weather turned hot. Early spring optimism about the market spooling back up could charitably be described as, well, optimistic.”
“Earlier this month, the California Association of Realtors predicted that statewide sales would drop 14 percent this year. Utterly beyond rational explanation is CAR’s corollary forecast of a 1.8 percent increase in home prices.”
“What’s wrong with that picture? What’s wrong is that home sellers are still stuck in 2005, still believing their house can defy the sucking sound of prices being pulled south by a market that’s stepped off a cliff.”
“When the lines on the graph are headed upward, everyone looks like a genius even when you’ve acted like a dummy by, say, buying more house than you really can afford.”
“No more. Now, homeowners are actually losing their homes. Lenders aren’t just filing notices of foreclosure, they are foreclosing. Keys, please (and sometimes they don’t even say please).”
“Markets boom and markets bust. This is part of a cycle. San Joaquin County may be No. 1 in the nation for foreclosures now. A couple of years ago we were near the top in home price appreciation. That’s the ying and yang of the housing market, any market.”