The Housing Bubble

The Union Tribune reports from California. “Workers’ incomes stagnated last year, barely outpacing the official level of inflation, according to data released yesterday by the U.S. Census Bureau. ‘2007 was probably as good as it’s going to get for a while, and these numbers show it wasn’t very good,’ said Jean Ross, director of the California Budget Project in Sacramento.”

“San Diego’s median income dropped sharply in 2002 after the high-tech boom stalled; rebounded from 2004 through 2006, coinciding with the rise of the housing bubble; but then stalled in 2007 after the real estate market peaked.”

“Kelly Cunningham, an economist with the San Diego Institute for Policy Research, said the sluggish wage growth does not bode well for the county’s beleaguered housing market.”

“‘In the early part of this decade, home prices were rising so fast that there was no way our income could keep up, which was one reason for the price bubble,’ Cunningham said. ‘Even though home prices have fallen, we have a way to go before they get in alignment with our wages.’”

The Voice of San Diego. “Home prices in San Diego dropped again in June, reaching a point not seen since September 2003, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Index released Tuesday.”

“June’s price index for resale houses fell 30 percent from the market’s peak in November 2005. The overall index logged a 24 percent decline compared to June 2007. Prices in the lowest tier have now fallen 39.5 percent from that tier’s peak in June 2006. The middle tier’s prices have fallen 31 percent since November 2005, that tier’s peak. And the top tier declined 19.9 percent from the peak in June 2006.”

“In another report released Monday, First Republic Bank calculated that San Diego luxury homes have fallen in price by the most they have in a decade. The index measures price changes in houses priced at more than $1 million, usually measuring 3,000 to 6,000 square feet and having between three and six bedrooms and bathrooms.”

“Foreclosure-related properties constitute the vast majority of houses coming on the market, said Ramsey Su, a local retired real estate broker and investor who sold bank-owned properties in the 1980s and 1990s. Su included a brief analysis in a local market newsletter he sent out Tuesday: Of the 337 new home listings entered on Aug. 21 and 22, 135 of them were bank repossessions relisted for sale, and another 82 were short sales. As such, 64.4 percent of the listings entered were bank-owned or short sales.”

“‘There seems to be no understanding of the toxic nature of this inventory,’ Su wrote. ‘An inventory dominated by lender sellers, a very motivated group of sellers, means prices will be driven down hard. Private sellers with insufficient equity who have to sell in this environment will have no option but to apply for a short sale or be foreclosed upon.’”

“‘People are saying the reason prices are falling are because of all of the foreclosures, but the foreclosures are happening because the prices are falling,’ said Chris Thornberg, founding partner at Beacon Economics and former economics professor at the University of California, Los Angeles. ‘They’ve got it backwards. The prices are falling because they’re too freakin’ high.’”

The North County Times. “One real estate agent who specializes in higher-end markets, Eric Elegado of Mira Mesa, said foreclosures in more expensive neighborhoods will push down prices further.”

“‘In Santaluz, there’s some foreclosures and short sales coming onto the market, so that will set a new price point,’ Elegado said.”

“‘This thing’s going to hit bottom some point in mid-2009, and it’s going to sit there for two years —- at least,’ said Thornberg. ‘I’ve heard people say you’re going to miss the bottom. You’ve got to be kidding. If there’s any asset market where you can’t miss the bottom, it’s housing.’”

The LA Daily News. “San Fernando Valley housing prices continued their free fall in July, plunging 29 percent as foreclosures mounted at a record pace. The median price tumbled to $453,500, down nearly $20,000 from June and a whopping $186,000 below the median in July 2007, said the San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center at California State University, Northridge.”

“At the same time, foreclosures jumped 221 percent, flooding the market with deeply discounted homes seized by lenders. Sales ticked up 5 percent.”

“‘The problem right now is we’re getting foreclosures … faster than sales are taking them off the market,’ said Daniel Blake, the center’s director and an economics professor at CSUN.”

“‘It seems to have leveled off. The erosion seems pretty much to have stabilized,’ said Jim Link, chief executive officer of the Van Nuys-based Southland Regional Association of Realtors, of the sales slide. ‘But I don’t want to paint a rosy picture and say things will be better real soon.’”

The Fresno Bee. “Fresno experienced double-digit appreciation during the real estate boom that peaked in 2005. In August of that year, an analyst for economy.com labeled Fresno the most overpriced housing market in the nation. That came three months after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. classified Fresno as a ‘boom’ market because values climbed 58% between 2002 and 2004.

“Experts said speculators fueled the market and helped drive up prices. But values fell, owners couldn’t refinance and thousands of houses went into default. ‘We had a great deal of speculation money,” said Patrick Prince, a real estate agent in Fresno. ‘That created inflated and unrealistic prices that our population could not afford. Prices have been going down for a year and a half.’”

“Sean O’Toole, president of Discovery Bay-based ForeclosureRadar, said a hard fall was a natural consequence. ‘If you believe in reversion to the mean, then the higher you get, the further you [fall].’”

“Real estate analysts say prices could fall some more, but they caution buyers against waiting too long to make a purchase because interest rates could rise and financing could become harder to obtain.”

“‘Trying to guess the bottom is the worst thing you can do,’ said Robin Kane, a housing analyst in Fresno. ‘You only see the bottom through the rear-view mirror.’”

The Patterson Irrigator. “Barring yet another unforeseen development, the Diablo Grande golf resort and housing development should be sold at a bankruptcy hearing Thursday. The sale, which is scheduled to be approved at 10 a.m. at the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Sacramento, was initially supposed to take place at a hearing Aug. 19.”

“But sale negotiations were still ongoing between Diablo Grande and at least two potential buyers, so Diablo Grande attorney Michael Ahrens requested that the hearing be postponed until Thursday.”

“Ahrens said at the Aug. 19 hearing that Diablo Grande, which has taken out more than $2 million in loans to continue operating during the sale process, only has enough money on hand to make it through this week.”

“That could be bad news for residents, who rely on the water Diablo Grande has been providing by way of those loans. If a sale is not approved by the bankruptcy judge on Thursday, Diablo Grande might have no choice but to liquidate in Chapter 7 bankruptcy.”

“Diablo Grande has been for sale since at least November, when Encino-based Marcus & Millichap listed the project for $150 million. It later dropped that price to $85 million, but no sale was completed. The developer filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy March 10.”

The Manteca Bulletin. “Three years ago not a single existing home that closed escrow in Manteca sold for under $320,000 in August. This August it is a drastically different story. Of the last 70 homes to close escrow in Manteca all but four ended up changing hands for less than $320,000.”

“That $320,000 home three years ago had 896 square feet, two bedrooms, one bathroom, no garage and a lot barely bigger than the house. The highest priced house closing escrow so far this month for under $320,000 in Manteca - $312,000 - was for 3,166 square feet with five bedrooms and three bathrooms.”

“Aggressively priced homes started hitting the market in July as many banks undercut previous price points as they went to list new foreclosures. The aggressive change in bank pricing and the growing tidal wave of accepted offers has dropped the average sales price for the year down $8,252 since July 21 reflecting the much lower selling prices.”

“That reflects a drop in the average value of $235.80 a day for the past 35 days. And that average is destined to drop even farther. There is a record 290 pending deals in Manteca with an average price of $223,330. But the real story is the pending foreclosure sales that account for 212 homes and an average selling price of $200,006.”

“Agent Jim Muthart said the ‘magic number’ that is assures a home will move quickly unless it has major structural issue or some other unusual circumstance is $170,000. That is a price at which an investor can buy the home with 20 percent down, drop some money into it and still come away the first month renting it with a $100 positive cash flow.”

“Others argue that magic number is $220,000 to $230,000 but as Muthurt pointed out homes bought in the $170,000 and under price range are the largest segment of the market seeking rentals which is $1,200 or less a month”

“As to when the market will bottom out, Muthart is fairly confident it is at the bottom or near it - at least when it comes to the lower end of the market.”

“It’s a bottom he described as a ‘bouncing up and down’ along the bottom where one home lands with a lower price while a similar home gets a bounce up from the bottom due to spirited bidding wars.”

The Bakersfield Californian. “The Southern Oaks house where David Crisp has been staying in recent months - after the once high-flying Realtor lost all of his own properties to foreclosure - fell into default Tuesday, county records show.”

“The property is owned by real estate broker David ‘Ty’ Stewart. ‘I’d like to keep it if I could,’ Stewart said, ’so I don’t have to evict a tenant who can’t pay rent.’”

“Monthly payments are $4,500, Stewart said, and the interest rate is 12.5 percent. The house is also worth $200,000 less than Stewart bought it for, he said, because of the declining market.”

“Stewart bought the house in August 2006 for $629,000, county property records show. A pair of ‘piggyback’ loans from SunTrust Mortgage Inc. provided 100-percent financing.”

“The property was listed by Crisp & Cole Real Estate, Crisp’s former company, when Stewart bought it, listing records indicate. Stewart was the listing agent.”

“‘I’m just a victim’ of the down economy ‘who’s struggling like everyone else,’ he said.”

The Chicago Tribune reports from Illinois. “Home buyers and sellers in the Chicago area just can’t agree on the price of a house. Sales of existing homes continue to be down, Chicago-area home prices are flat, and real estate agents who want to close deals are pleading with players on both sides to be realistic. ‘You’ve got sellers in denial,’ said Ken Reeder, a broker associate at Baird & Warner. ‘They’re reducing, but they’re being slow.’”

“Denise Dominici put her Romeoville tri-level house on the market in April 2007 for $275,000. It hasn’t sold and reducing the price has been painful for her, even though she’s moved into a new $425,000 custom-built Shorewood ranch in September. She’s turned down offers from renters, reduced the price to $235,900 and offered to throw in the furnishings. To her, the house at its current price is a steal, not a reflection of a bad market.”

“‘I don’t know what these people want,’ she said. ‘To me, I feel like I’m handing them everything.’”

“Meanwhile, Liz Meyer and her boyfriend, Will Aquino, find themselves stymied in their quest to become first-time homeowners.”

“In the past eight months, the couple has looked at 25 condominiums. They’d like to make an offer for their favorite, a two-bedroom unit in Humboldt Park, but they think it’s worth $30,000 less than it’s listed. And their real estate agent heard that higher offers have been rejected and the sellers may pull it from the market.”

“‘We’re seeing a lot of people that bought within the last two years when money was cheap. So to break even, they’re maintaining a high listing [price]. It’s only worth what I’m going to pay for it,’ Meyer said.”

“Sales of existing single-family homes and condos in the nine-county metropolitan Chicago area dropped 25.2 percent in July from a year earlier, the Illinois Association of Realtors said Monday.”

“Sitting at an open house Sunday for an Elmhurst home first listed in February for $857,000 and now priced at $759,000, real estate agent Sheila Barbre saw six groups of people, including two who stumbled upon the house after seeing a sign Barbre had posted nearby at the Illinois Prairie Path. ”

“‘Everybody had the same comment,’ she said. ‘They wanted to stay away from the market because of the way this year is. They are looking into next spring to do something.’”

The Pioneer Local from Illinois. “Martin Paulson, Lake County chief assessment officer, said despite the slowdown in the housing market, most taxpayers will see an increase in their assessments. That’s because assessments in Illinois townships are based on sales transactions that occurred during the three previous years — 2005, 2006 and 2007 — when the housing market was stronger.”

“‘Many people do expect their assessments are going to go down,’ said Paulson. ‘The reality is that isn’t going to happen this year.’”

“Antioch Township Assessor Heather Kulfalk-Marotta said her office has received a number of calls from residents wondering why their assessments are going up when the housing market is in a slump. She has to explain to them that assessments are based on an average of the three previous years, not on current year’s sales activity.”

“‘A lot of people say ‘I can’t even sell my home for what I paid for it,’ she said.”

The Indianapolis Business Journal. “The squishy Indianapolis-area residential real estate market has come to this: Sluggish though it is, the region hasn’t been hit as hard as the nation as a whole. Sellers have the greatest advantage if their house is priced below $75,000 or if the house is in Hendricks County. Buyers have the most leverage if the house is priced over $1 million or if the house is in Morgan County.”

“Metropolitan Indianapolis Board of Realtors President David Bickell said markets are digesting excesses from the housing bust. ‘That excess supply is being worked through very nicely,’ said Bickell. ‘We’re pretty near the bottom.’”

“July sales plunged 21 percent, to 9,502 units, from July 2007, MIBOR reported. The median sale price fell 3 percent, to $124,500.”

“People wanting to unload a house at $1 million or more are likely to wait a long time. The category has a 47-month supply, much more than the recent second-quarter low of 32 months, in 2006.”

“Broker Jeff Kucic said there isn’t enough information yet to declare that the downturn is over. ‘We’re in the mucky bottom,’ Kucic said. ‘We’re up one day and down the next.’”

The Quad City Times from Iowa. “A little more than a year ago, three major projects - upscale condominiums at Oneida Landing, rehabilitation of the vacant One River Place building into a mixed use commercial and residential building and a new office and apartment complex headed up by the McNamara Development Group - were contemplated.”

“Now, construction has begun on the McNamara building, but Pat and JJ Condon’s Oneida Landing condo tower is shelved and their plans to work with the owner of One River Place on a rehab project has stalled due to disagreement on the value of the property.”

“The property the Condons were going to build on is owned by area businessman Jim Sweet. He said he was forced to terminate the Condons’ option on the property because of the slow pace of pre-sales.”

“The project was very ambitious by Quad-City development standards. It was billed as an $18 million, eight-story luxury condominium highrise, with prices ranging from $214,000 on the second floor to $750,000 on the top floor.”

“‘I held the property for two years at no cost to them, and I felt they either needed to buy the property or pay a monthly stipend to keep it off the market,’ he said. ‘The problem is the economy. It’s tough to stick your neck out in this economy.’”

“Levee Improvement Commission member Lucky Lang said it’s unfortunate the projects are on hold, but he remains optimistic about the long-term prospects for that section of riverfront.”

“‘Davenport may not have been quite ready for what Pat and JJ proposed,’ he said. ‘The concept is awesome. It’s what a lot of riverfront communities do. It may have been a little too contemporary, a little too advanced for this moment.’”

The Bay City Times from Michigan. “Bay City developers Paul and Peggy Rowley have laid out plans for an $8 million project on the downtown Bay City site of the former Mill End building. In all, there would be five retail stores, one or two restaurants, and 20 to 30 condo units, according to the plans.”

“Rowley has said he will not move quickly on the project until he experiences more sales at the Boathouse Condominiums, an upscale condo development on Water Street. He described the proposed housing units at Mill End location as ‘much lower price than the Boathouse.’”

“Rowley, in the past, has said Boathouse condo prices ranged from $384,000 to $727,000. ‘They’ll be smaller units, something like 800 to 1,100 square feet,’ he said.”

“State Rep. Jeff Mayes, Bay City, authored legislation this year to expand the state’s Commercial Rehabilitation Act to accommodate the Mill End project. ‘That area of the city is the last real piece to be developed, and then we can set our sights on Uptown at RiversEdge,’ he said. ‘Of course, there’s a process that has to be followed and I suspect there will be questions.’”

The Ann Arbor News from Michigan. “Washtenaw County home and condo sales were steady in July compared to the same month last year, although the average sale price of a house plummeted nearly $28,200 - a 10.6 percent drop - to $236,209, the Ann Arbor Area Board of Realtors reported this month.”

“John Cimaglia, (a) Corvette owner, is hoping to get $780,000 for his 3,000-square-foot custom-built home on 27 acres in Augusta Township. He and his wife are hoping to downsize, and may not have room for their hunter green, mint-condition Stingray. With the market as tough as it is, he thought the car might at least attract attention.”

“Mary Hettinger, of Keller Williams, said she had seen a house for sale in Northville with a classic car thrown into the deal. But, she said, it’s not likely such gimmicks would have a big impact locally.”

“‘The bottom line is, it’s about the price,’ said Laura Dykstra, sales manager for the Edward Surovell Realtors.”

“Buyers rarely select a home based on extras thrown into the deal, she said, ‘But hey, in this market, people are willing to try just about anything.’”

The Daily Press & Argus from Michigan. “The numbers tell the story about new home construction in Livingston County, albeit a depressing one. It should come as no surprise that new homes are trickling into a county that was once booming with new home construction. Several years ago, subdivisions appeared to pop up almost overnight as rising home values and easy financing allowed people to move into a highly desirable community.”

“Home values are now falling, banks aren’t lending so quickly and there’s plenty of homes available with the increase in foreclosures.”

“Bill Rogers, who runs a family-owned modular home business, said he was the No. 1 builder last year for one of the biggest companies in the business, All American Homes. Rogers said the slowdown really started not long after Sept. 11, 2001, and it hit quickly.”

“‘It fell off a cliff,’ Rogers said. ‘It wasn’t a bungee jump. It was jumping off a cliff with no bungee cord. It’s essentially dead.’”

“When he receives a call from someone asking whether to build, Rogers said he’s faced with telling them a painful truth.”

“‘If I can lie, you want to build,’ he usually begins telling them. He then tells them the truth, which is there are some great deals out there on foreclosures and other homes. All it takes is some legwork on the part of the buyer.”

From TH Online. “In all 12 Midwestern cities tracked in The Associated Press-Re/Max Monthly Housing Report, sales fell by at least 10 percent from July last year. The report analyzed home sales recorded by all real estate agents in those cities, regardless of company affiliation.”

“The median price fell in every city in the AP-Re/Max report, except Rapid City, S.D., where it rose by 4.8 percent from a year ago to $179,000.”

“The largest price drop, by contrast, was in Detroit, where the sinking economy and skyrocketing foreclosures helped push the median price down 36 percent to $81,000.”

“Bob Mitchell, an agent who works in Detroit and its suburbs, is currently listing a 6,100-square foot brick Queen Anne-style home, which needs major repairs, for a mere $80,000. ‘It’s just amazing,’ he said. ‘How much lower can they go?’”

“In Minneapolis, prices were down 12.5 percent — the second-largest drop after Detroit — to a median of nearly $192,000 in July. Sales were down more than 19 percent.”

“‘I really don’t see (a recovery) happening any time in the near future,’ said Susan Hofflander, an agent in Minneapolis who only represents buyers.”

The Jackson County Chronicle from Wisconsin. “Existing home sales in Wisconsin fell 22.2 percent during the second quarter from a year ago, a steeper decline than the Midwest region and the nation, according to a report issued Thursday by the Wisconsin Association of Realtors. Median sale prices were down 3 percent to $162,200 from last year.”

“‘It’s a mirror image of what happened in the first quarter,’ said David Clark, an economist (in) of Milwaukee. ‘It looks like buyers are still reluctant to dive into this market.’”

“Many Wisconsin real estate agents don’t expect much market improvement before 2009. In an online survey conducted last week for the association, 84.4 percent said they expect fourth-quarter sales to be the same or worse than the same period in 2007.”

The seasonally adjusted pace of sales in south-central Wisconsin has been stable for a year, according to Dave Stark of Stark Company Realtors.

“‘If you’ve been waiting or hoping for things to get better, stop,’ he wrote.”

From KAAL TV in Minnesota. “Rochester Realtor Robin Gwaltney agrees that prices are lower today than they were five years ago. She says it’s because sellers are asking for closer to the actual value of their home.”

“5 years ago sellers would ask for 10 to 20 percent more than what the home was worth.”

From KIMT News 3 in Minnesota. “A foreclosed housing development will be going to the highest bidder. The city of Albert Lea says the Eagle’s Rest development will be on the auction block in September. Larry Thorstad has lived near the Eagle’s Rest golf course area in Albert Lea for 15 years.”

“‘Well, with the golf course the way it was it was a beautiful area. Well used. You know…with the lake there and everything. Right now, we’re kind of blocked from all of the eye sore that we see,’ Thorstad said.”

“Behind Thorstad’s house sits the torn up development. ‘It’s very discouraging that it’s just sitting there all tore up and nothing is being done that we can see or hear.’”

“Last December, American Bank bought back the property that was going to be turned into a housing development called Eagle’s Rest. Construction crews came in and started working on the project last year, but neighbors say within a couple months all that work just came to a halt.”

“Even though it’s months past the foreclosure, the developer has one year, or until the end of this December to pay the mortgage off under his right of redemption. Albert Lea’s City Manager says the developer plans to do that during an auction in about three weeks. And the developer is also offering to sell the city some acres. Right now, the city is saying ‘no deal.’”

“‘This is kind of a bad thing. A lot of people are very disappointed with the way this was handled. They’re very disappointed that now it just sits there and now it’s a big eyesore for the whole city,’ Thorstad said.”

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