A Cathartic Event In California
Bloomberg reports on California. “Almost $1.3 trillion of homeowner equity was lost in California since home prices peaked in December 2005, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. ‘California is having a wrenching decline in wealth, but this is a cathartic event that will lay the foundation for a recovery,’ said Zandi in an interview. ‘This signals the beginning of the end.’”
“Foreclosure sales accounted for 75 percent of June’s total in Merced County, home to the Merced metro area with the country’s second-highest foreclosure rate; 72 percent in Stanislaus County, home to the Modesto metro area with the third-highest foreclosure rate; and 66 percent in San Joaquin County, home to Stockton, data from DataQuick and RealtyTrac show.”
“Sales of foreclosed properties equaled 63 percent of the total in Sacramento County, 62 percent in Riverside County, 58 percent in Solano County, 57 percent in San Bernardino County and 49 percent in Contra Costa County. Prices dropped as much 37 percent in those counties, DataQuick reported.”
“Bruce Norris, president of the Norris Group investment firm in Riverside, said he purchased foreclosed properties for one- third of the outstanding loan value during the past two months.”
“Norris bought a three-bedroom home in the Moreno Valley section of Riverside for $106,000, a 65 percent discount on the $300,000 loan held by Bear Stearns Cos., now part of JPMorgan Chase & Co. He got a 61 percent discount on a home with $258,750 in loans held by Deutsche Bank AG, and a 63 percent discount for a home with $324,000 in loans held by Morgan Stanley, he said.”
“‘The banks are stuck wholesaling to people like me,’ Norris said. ‘They are starting to move product faster than the market would normally allow.’”
“The housing bill signed by President George W. Bush yesterday is intended to stem foreclosures. Homeowners like David Imig and his wife, who live in the Stockton area and owe more than their house is worth, aren’t helped by the bill. They paid $462,000 for a three-bedroom at the market peak in 2005. Now, their neighbor’s foreclosed home is on sale for half its original price.”
“‘We’re a good $100,000 down,’ Imig said. ‘If we could move without taking a huge bath, we would.’”
“Peggy Thorpe outbid seven offers for a foreclosed house in Vallejo, east of San Francisco, and still got a 34 percent discount. It was the sixth time since May she made an offer for a home in foreclosure.”
“‘This time I jumped higher,’ said Thorpe, who works at a vineyard in Napa and paid $190,500 for the three-bedroom home with a loan balance of $289,000. ‘There’s an extreme bidding war right now.’”
The San Francisco Chronicle. “The new law aims to help 400,000 homeowners with new guaranteed mortgages. Yet it remains unclear how many lenders and borrowers will participate. Lenders must write down mortgages 15 percent below a home’s current market value.”
“‘Those are all wild estimates,’ said banking consultant Bert Ely of the numbers of homeowners who may be helped. ‘It may have some effect at the margin, but you’re still going to have lots of homes go into foreclosure.’”
“Some lenders may choose foreclosure, and many homeowners have what are now known as ‘liar loans,’ made with no income documentation, and may not be able to afford even reduced-rate loans, along with the taxes, insurance and maintenance costs that accompany home ownership. ‘A lot of people will find out they’re better off renting, no matter how good a deal they’re cut,’ Ely said.”
The Union Tribune. “San Diego cities and the county are expected to receive several million dollars from the housing bill to buy foreclosed homes and resell them to needy families. But with $4 billion to be allocated nationwide through the Department of Housing and Urban Development’s community development block grant program, local officials said the effort will not be nearly enough .”
“In the first half of the year, nearly 8,500 homes were foreclosed on in the county, according to DataQuick Information Systems. If area agencies received $2 million in the program, that would be enough to buy and rehabilitate eight homes at $250,000 each.”
“‘A few million dollars is not going to do much in this market,’ said San Diego City Councilman Tony Young.”
The Daily Breeze. “A UC Irvine study released today shifts blame for the housing collapse from sub-prime lending to the use of aggressive, private mortgage securities that followed the reduced role of traditional mortgage backers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.”
“The study by the UCI Paul Merage School of Business Center for Real Estate ties the start of what became a massive real estate bubble burst to the 2003 pullback of the government-sponsored financial service corporations from the credit market and the change in the prevalent source of mortgage capital.”
“‘We were quite surprised to find the intensity of sub-prime lending was insignificant after controlling for all the other factors influencing the market, but we were really blown away when Fannie’s and Freddie’s continuing presence in the market was shown to be so important,’ said Kerry Vandell, a UCI finance professor and director of the Center for Real Estate.”
“The researchers found that rising home prices up to 2003 could be explained by economic fundamentals, such as low unemployment rates, expanding household incomes and population growth. Those factors fueled housing demand and, in turn, increased U.S. home prices.”
“But in 2003, certain factors caused the two entities to significantly slow their lending volume, including accounting irregularities that led to the resignation of senior officers and the capping of their retained loan portfolios.”
“Private funding stepped in, in the form of asset-backed securities and residential mortgage-backed securities, while a new credit environment allowed looser underwriting standards and increased tolerance for riskier, high-yield loan products that included adjustable-rate mortgages with low initial ‘teaser’ rates, Vandell said.”
“The climate gave formerly marginal borrowers greater access to credit, leading to a record increase in total mortgage volume and pushing up home prices with momentum that is characteristic of a bubble, the UCI team said.”
“The researchers also found that interest rates did not significantly affect housing prices, also a divergence from conventional wisdom.”
“‘These finding help us understand that the government can have a major role in affecting the mortgage and housing markets,’ Vandell said. ‘It’s important policymakers consider this influence when they attempt to shape the markets in the future.’”
The Press Enterprise. “Saying that loans to borrowers with poor credit is the reason for the bubble bursting is like blaming the tail for wagging the dog, says a study led by the Center for Real Estate at the UC Irvine Paul Merage School of Business.”
“‘The real problem is that all the stops were pulled out, allowing the private issuers to run amuck,’ said Vandell.”
“John Marcell, president of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers Education and Research Foundation, agreed that the housing crisis might not have occurred if Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had been more active. That would have been possible, he said, if their loan limits had been lifted as they were Wednesday by the housing stimulus package signed into law by President Bush.”
“‘Had Congress listened to the real predicament that was forthcoming and had raised the loan limits back then and let Fannie and Freddie do their job properly, we would not have the problem we ultimately experienced,’ he said. ‘Because we opened up the flood gates of this loosey-goosey lending … we enticed people to become homeowners who were not in the position to do it.’”
“Vandell said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were ‘victims of circumstances’ and had no choice but to let private mortgage lenders take over the field.”
The Bakersfield Californian. “A local accountant’s signature was forged to help David Crisp’s wife get a loan in 2006, according to testimony Wednesday in the ongoing license hearings of former Crisp & Cole Real Estate principals Crisp, 28, and Carl Cole, 61.”
“Certified public accountant Timothy Hubbell of Bakersfield took the stand to answer questions about a letter dated September 2006 apparently bearing his signature. The letter was actually written by his former business partner, Kevin Sluga - Crisp’s father-in-law - Hubbell said after giving testimony.”
“The state’s attorney, Michael B. Rich, asked Hubbell if the signature was his. ‘No,’ Hubbell said. ‘Did you write that letter?’ asked Rich, who is representing the California Department of Real Estate in the administrative hearing. ‘No, I did not,’ Hubbell said.”
“The letter was in a 2006 loan file of Jennifer Crisp, David Crisp’s wife, submitted to Aegis Wholesale Corp. for what would be $475,000 worth of loans she received to buy 12706 Lanai Ave.”
“The letter was included in the file to clarify Jennifer Crisp’s supposed employment at California Business Solutions, a bookkeeping and accountancy firm co-owned by Sluga, her father.”
“Hubbell also testified the employment claim in the document, written on company letterhead, was false: Jennifer Crisp had not worked at the company for two years, as the letter claimed. She had never worked there, he said.”
“Later, Hubbell testified that Leslie Sluga worked a couple of days a week at California Business Solutions doing bookkeeping. She earned about $8 or $9 an hour, he said, bringing in about $400 a month.”
“In other loan files, the hearings have shown, Sluga claimed she had been a co-owner of the business for 15 years. Hubbell said after the hearing her income was stated as $40,000 a month in some loan applications.”
The Ventura County Star. “A Ventura-based builder appears to have fallen on hard times, and its state license is at stake. R.W. Hertel & Sons Inc. has disabled its Web site and put its building up for sale.”
“R.W. Hertel has a long history of accusations concerning defective building. In 2005, for example, residents complained of water leakage at the Rancho Obispo subdivision in San Luis Obispo County.”
“Presently in Stanislaus County, R.W. Hertel is facing a $250,000 fine for storm water damage violations in a subdivision that is home to several endangered species. In another sign of money woes, R.W. Hertel has ceased construction on a $25 million hotel and condominium resort project in Oregon.”
The Valley Voice. “Centex Corp. is relocating its Central Valley regional office from Visalia to Sacramento in a consolidation move that will mean many more lost jobs locally. After several rounds of layoffs in the past six months, a new round eliminated about 20 jobs in Visalia a few weeks ago, say sources familiar with the company.”
“The company eliminated chief planner for new projects, Cliff Ronk’s job, among others. Now, the company has put its big 50,000-square-foot regional headquarters on Akers up for sublease.”
“In addition to shutting down the regional office, sister company CTX Mortgage will be closing its retail office here at the end of August after a potential sale to another company didn’t happen.”
“Centex has been Tulare County’s largest builder for decades but its volume is less than a third of what it was just two years ago. Centex used Visalia as a regional office since it bought the operation of Andy Mangano in 1991 and expanded year after year in the number of subdivisions and towns it built in the Central Valley.”
“The big builder became a major employer here. For years, it was the busiest division for the Dallas-based builder in the state.”
“Centex moved to a vacant space in the big 150,000-square-foot Cigna Insurance building on Akers only a year ago, consolidating scattered offices into one location. Centex leased 50,000 square feet of the building that it now wants to sublease.”
“But a year later, the collapse of the new home market in California has apparently convinced Centex, like other builders, to pull up stakes here.”
The Sacramento Bee. “If you’re seeking ground zero of the real estate collapse, go no farther than Laguna Ridge. Four years ago, this 1,900-acre swath - characterized as Elk Grove’s ‘crown jewel’ - was master-planned for 7,767 homes. Roads, utilities, parks, and a new high school are all in place.”
“But the downturn hit so hard and so fast that only 310 houses have been sold so far. Thousands of phantom houses lend a surreal air to Laguna Ridge. Perfect residential streets with shiny nameplates wind through fields of waist-high grass. There are many speed bumps - but no cars. On Winkle Court, near a row of pristine model homes, the one sign of life is a jack rabbit streaking across the road.”
“No child plays at Constellation Park, despite tempting climbing structures, green grass and bright red picnic tables. The little park is encircled by a chain link rent-a-fence. Two blocks away, 15 occupied houses on Collie Way stand isolated on the lonely frontier of Laguna Ridge.”
“Among these pioneers are Chris and Jene Claude and their two kids. The Claudes say: If you’re seeking a sweet home and a great deal, go no farther than Laguna Ridge. ‘Right now, it is a little sparse around here,’ conceded Chris Claude. ‘But that makes the neighbors closer.’”
“Their house, 2,300 square feet with four bedrooms and two full baths, cost them $400,000 - probably about $125,000 less than they would have paid at the market’s peak. The Claudes aren’t worried about the paucity of neighbors in Laguna Ridge - they will come, they say. But they are irked by one facet of living in a 1,900-acre vacant lot.”
“‘The only thing that really bugs us is the fence around that park!’ the young mother said. ‘It wasn’t so bad when it was just an overgrown patch - but now it’s finished and the kids can’t get in.’”
“Real estate attorney John Hodgson represents developers who control about 90 percent of Laguna Ridge. ‘The bottom line is that this project got approved in 2004 when the market was at its pinnacle,’ Hodgson said. ‘With the delays of the city both before and after adoption of the plan, the fact is that this development missed the cycle.’”
“‘It breaks my heart,’ said Kathryn Boyce, a Northern California real estate analyst for Hanley Wood Market Intelligence. ‘Laguna Ridge would be perfect - a shining star. But the market crashed so quickly and deeply that it didn’t happen.’”
“Still, Boyce is a believer in real estate cycles. She sees pioneers like the Claude family as simply ahead of the curve.”
“‘If they just bought, they got a great deal and they’re in on the ground floor,’ she said. ‘The housing market will come back with a roar. At Laguna Ridge, all the infrastructure is in place and you’ll see a ton of houses all opening at once. It’s poised to come back like wildfire.’”