The Housing Bubble

The Jackson Hole Daily reports from Wyoming. “The market for real estate less than $1 million is favoring buyers for the first time in months, one broker said this week. David Viehman reports that the overall market ‘has been sluggish at best,’ with sales down 43 percent, dollar volume down 46 percent and average overall sale prices down 3.5 percent compared with the same time last year.”

“The median home price, which has experienced drastic increases in recent years, grew less than 2 percent to $1.2 million. It was $1.18 million this time last year and $920,000 in 2006.”

“Viehman said many properties were overpriced as much as 30 percent. Recent price reductions are a market correction, he said. In the under $1 million market, which Viehman calls the ‘locals segment,’ sales for the year are down 60 percent and properties under contract are down 85 percent. That’s coupled with inventory levels that are up 140 percent.”

“Viehman said 121 properties, or 21 percent of listings, had reduced asking prices between June 1 and July 15. ‘This is unprecedented for Jackson Hole,’ Viehman wrote. ‘Don’t expect to find below-market value, though.’”

The New West Network from Montana. “According to one developer’s survey, almost 200 condos have entered the Missoula market over the past 18 months. Yet the only sizeable project to sell fast has been the sold-out Wilma Theater building, which had prices as low as $88,000. Small condos in the $150,000-range and larger units priced above $250,000, on the other hand, have lingered.”

“And more are coming onto the market. The 44-unit Mullan Heights condominium overlooking the Clark Fork River has only just come on sale - with units priced from about $180,000 to about $325,000.”

“It’s hard for any development to escape the overarching housing downturn. All sellers said they’ve encountered prospective buyers who said they would love to get into a condo - if only they could sell their house. Others also complained about over-skittish lenders. Yet no developer wants to be the first to admit - publicly - the hard lesson that his or her particular building is overpriced or ahead of its time.”

“One builder said, ‘If I would have seen what was coming two years ago, I would not have built that building.’”

The Idaho Statesman. “The latest sales statistics compiled by the Intermountain MLS show median prices of homes sold fell almost everywhere in the Valley between January and June, including neighborhoods new and old, rich ones and poor.”

“‘Right now most of the subdivisions in the Treasure Valley are really, really struggling. And we have traumatized consumers who we have to convince to get into the market,’ said Mike Pennington, residential specialist in Boise.”

“‘People are looking for bargains no matter what the area,’ Pennington said. ‘All price ranges are being compressed because after a 26-month downturn, sellers have finally taken a bite out (of) the reality sandwich, and they’re lowering their price.’”

The Oregonian. “When South Waterfront started five years ago, skeptics wondered whether Portland had enough people interested in the condo life to support a batch of 300-foot tall towers.”

“At first, Williams & Dame Development and its partner found plenty of willing buyers. Their first project, the Meriwether, averaged about 20 sales a month and sold out in 2006 twice as fast as developers expected. Buyers buzzed for the second tower, the John Ross…spurring developers to speed up plans for their third and fourth towers.”

“Then the condo market deflated. Seventy-seven people asked to get out of their John Ross purchase. Since last fall, the developers have added just 12 new sales for a total of 182, still below the 2005 rush of pre-sales. Since last June, 11 of South Waterfront’s 481 buyers have defaulted on their mortgages”

“‘It started out like a house on fire,’ said Irving Levin, who runs a Beaverton finance company and invested in South Waterfront land holdings controlled by Williams & Dame’s principals. ‘Then the curtain came down in the condo market in general. Like a lot of developers, they were stuck with a lot of inventory.’”

“Jeremy Stoddart, who owned mortgage company Source One Financial, paid $1 million for a 2,300-square-foot Meriwether condo in May 2006. Stoddart, who did not return calls for comment, put his condo on the market last August as the mortgage market went haywire nationwide.”

“He asked for $1.2 million, then lowered it to $925,000, 13 percent less than he paid two years ago. In January, Stoddart defaulted on his condo.”

“At a South Waterfront election forum earlier this year, someone asked then mayoral candidate Sam Adams whether Portland had enough money to live up to its South Waterfront promises. Adams response: ‘The short answer is no.’”

“Developer Tony Marnella saw the slowdown in housing coming but had no idea how bad it would get. He opened Volare at Eagle’s Nest, a 115-lot development in Happy Valley just as customers and creditors were pulling back. ‘We opened knowing full well there would probably be a slowdown in the market,’ he said. ‘What we did not anticipate is that the market would come to a complete halt.’”

“Since April, Marnella and four companies he controlled have filed for bankruptcy protection, all related to Volare. According to Marnella, as the situation worsened, he approached his banks.”

“‘I wasn’t asking for debts to be forgiven,’ he said. ‘My goal was to get the credit line extended. I tried to explain that the market had ground to a halt but that I thought it would come back. I was not, and am not, trying to avoid any debts. But the banks would not talk to me.’”

“The result, he said, was bankruptcy protection. ‘It was the last card I had to play,’ he said. ‘I had no choice.’”

“Washington mortgage regulators announced Wednesday they intend to revoke the license of Paramount Equity Mortgage, a Roseville, Calif., firm that has blanketed Northwest radio stations with commercials promising cheap and easy mortgages.”

“Paramount made more than 1,700 mortgage loans to Washington borrowers in 2007, collecting more than $8.7 million in fees.”

“‘Paramount failed to make proper disclosures in almost every loan we reviewed,” said Deb Bortner, director of consumer services for the finance department.”

The Seattle PI from Washington. “IndyMac Federal Bank, which was taken over by the federal government two weeks ago, is laying off as many as 65 employees in its Washington state mortgage operations, a spokesman said.”

“IndyMac’s operations in Washington had opened in just the last year. ‘A year ago we had nothing in Washington,’ said Evan Wagner, a spokesman for IndyMac. ‘We opened them up in the past year to take advantage of the troubles other companies were going through, and ultimately we fell into the same kind of trouble.’”

From KIMA TV in Washington. “It’s a safari unlike any you’ve seen before– it’s in your neighborhoods. More than 40 people took a bus tour of foreclosed homes around the Tri-Cities Saturday.”

“‘We’ve got a lot of eager buyers on that bus!’ said mortgage planner Dana Mundy, who helped organize and guide the tour.”

“‘Foreclosure tourist,’ Julie Molvik, agreed that buying foreclosed real estate is a creative way to turn a profit. ‘We were looking for something that we could invest in, or maybe something we could fix up and maybe something we could rent out or resell, flip.’”

The Daily News from Washington. “For years, Woodland’s real estate market has been superhot, fueled by home buyers seeking more value than they could get in the Portland metro area. But troubles like Jim Groth’s are a sign that even the hottest real estate in Cowlitz County is feeling the effects of a nationwide housing slump.”

“Groth planned to offer million-dollar homes in an upscale development along the Lewis River in Woodland. ‘Then the market shifted,’ said Groth, a builder.”

“As a result, he’s abandoned plans for the $1 million homes, and he’s taking $200,000 less for some houses in River’s Mist that could have fetched $500,000 two years ago. And he’s stopped building new houses altogether while he sells off his unsold inventory of eight homes in River’s Mist.”

“‘It’s a beautiful development,’ Groth said, but he said he can’t continue losing money in the cooling market.”

“Prices are falling, and city officials say 50 percent fewer homes are expected to be built this year than last year. And 2007 saw a 50 percent decline from 2006, said Bob Jones, who issues building permits for the city of Woodland.”

“‘It’s dead,’ he said of the housing market. ‘But it’s trying.’”

“A slower market is translating to lower home prices. According to the listing service, the median prices fell from $304,000 in June 2007 to $237,5000 last month.”

“Gary Gonder, a broker in Woodland, said part of the problem with the current market is when people price their houses above the current market value. It’s a trend becoming too common and has prompted Gonder to turn down some listings.”

“‘There’s a lot of houses on the market that are overpriced,’ he said. ‘If it’s been on the market more than 30 days, I tell people it’s overpriced.’”

“It’s becoming common for people to sell their homes for less than they owe on it and working with banks to forgive the difference, Gonder said.”

“‘I’m working with one right now that there’s like a $30,000 discrepency,’ Gonder said. ‘And it’s simply because what these people have done is they’re chasing the market down. They originally put the house for sale at $335,000, and it should have been $300,000. Now it’s for sale at $249,000.’”

“Gonder said the Woodland market isn’t dead - but people need to understand they’ve got to price houses to sell.’

“I’t’s O.K. if you have to sell it at today’s market (price) because you get to buy at today’s market” prices, he said. “You can get more house for your money than you’ve ever been able to. … Once the market takes another slight correction, these houses are going to be worth a lot more,’ said Gonder.”

Some housing bubble news from Wall Street and Washington. “Existing-home sales fell 2.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 4.86 million units in June, 15.5 percent lower than the 5.75 million-unit rate in June 2007. Total housing inventory at the end of June rose to 4.49 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 11.1. month supply at the current sales pace.”

“The national median existing-home price3 for all housing types was $215,100 in June, down 6.1 percent from a year ago when the median was $229,000. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there is a downward distortion in the price data.”

“‘With short sales and foreclosures accounting for approximately one-third of transactions, it’s hard to make an apples-to-apples comparison with a year ago when they were only a minor portion of the market,’ he said.”

From Reuters. “Pulte Homes Inc posted a smaller quarterly loss on Wednesday, but said buyer confidence remained shaky. The second-quarter loss narrowed to $158.4 million, from $507.6 million a year earlier. Pulte’s loss included $220.1 million in pretax charges related to inventory impairments and other land-related charges.”

“Revenue from homebuilding fell 18 percent to $1.6 billion as closings declined 8 percent to 5,438, and the average selling price dropped 11 percent to $268,000. New orders slid 32 percent to 5,133 homes.”

“‘The operating environment for homebuilding continued to deteriorate during the second quarter of 2008,’ said CEO Richard Dugas Jr.”

“Ryland Group Inc posted a second-quarter net loss (of) $241.6 million, from $52.4 million a year earlier. Home-building revenue for Ryland, the No. 9 U.S. home builder, fell 35 percent to $472.3 million, as closings dropped 26 percent to 1,828 homes and the average selling price declined 13 percent to $254,000.”

“New orders in the quarter fell 19 percent to 2,045. Ryland’s quarterly results included $180.4 million in such impairments and write-offs. Housing gross profit margins for Ryland, based in Calabasas, California, averaged 12.5 percent before inventory and joint venture valuation adjustments and write-offs, compared with 19 percent for the same period in 2007.”

From Bloomberg. “National City Corp., Ohio’s largest bank, reported a $1.76 billion second-quarter loss as it set aside more money to cover bad loans and took a $1.1 billion after-tax charge related to acquisitions.”

“National City bought in 2006 and early 2007 Harbor Florida Bancshares Inc. for $1.1 billion and Fidelity Bancshares Inc. for $1 billion. Both are headquartered in Florida, the state that along with Arizona and California accounted for 89 percent of the rise in new-home foreclosures during the first quarter.”

“National City was forced to raise $7 billion after the housing bust torpedoed its Florida expansion strategy. Loans National City doesn’t expect to be repaid rose more than seven times to $740 million from $98 million this period a year earlier as more builders defaulted on loans. Debts for which the lender is no longer collecting interest increased to $3.13 billion from $848 million.”

The Charlotte Observer. “Amid ballooning loan losses, Wachovia Corp. is taking more steps to unwind its troubled $122 billion Pick-A-Payment mortgage portfolio. But it’s not going to be a quick fix - or a cheap one.”

“Wachovia last month said it would stop offering a minimum payment option that causes a borrower’s loan balance to increase, essentially eliminating the Pick-A-Payment product.”

“One step Wachovia is not taking now: an outright sale of the Pick-A-Payment portfolio. Chief executive Bob Steel said it didn’t make sense to sell the loans into a ‘distressed market.’ The bank’s models have it setting aside $8.7 billion in 2008 to cover Pick-A-Payment losses and expected losses, followed by another $5.6 billion in 2009. The bank’s calculations are based on housing declines bottoming out in 2010.”

“Anybody remember when we were hot stuff? Sweet Charlotte, darling of the Sun Belt, belle of the New South. Booming business, exponential growth, civic pride, soaring skyline, surging real estate. Cinderella, your pumpkin is ready.”

“At Bank of America, our corporate flagship, earnings tank 40 percent. Next comes the Wachovia punch. It manages to lose nearly $9 billion in one quarter. Three months. That makes General Motors look like a growth opportunity.”

“Our banks fell into a giddy spending spree that seems reckless in hindsight. They blundered into the credit crisis, blinded by easy money. They snatched for the honey and ignored the bees.”

“When the stinging is over, they’ll be stronger for it. Their days of competing with Fast Al’s Car Loan, ‘no credit, no problem,’ are done. Financial sanity shall regain its throne.”

The Courier. “Perth company Stephen Homes and the troubled Stewart Milne Group-who announced 289 job losses- are developing a site at West Churchfields. A series of large, luxury family homes have already been created with price tags in excess of £200,000. However, such is the market that buyers have proved harder to find than anticipated.”

“An Errol resident contacted The Courier to say she feared the development would drag on. ‘There are real concerns within the community that the problems the housing market is experiencing will mean we are left with empty houses,’ said the resident, who asked not to be named.”

“‘About seven or eight homes on the site have been bought, but about 11 remain vacant, and these are large, luxury homes. Nobody could have predicted the housing market struggling as it has, but the villagers are concerned that the empty houses will attract unwanted attention. Residents are concerned that this could become something of a ghost town for a time.’”

The Telegraph. “Lawyers specialising in real estate report a surge in the number of British buyers contacting them for advice after the developers they bought from have gone under. Thousands of buyers who have not yet taken ownership of their properties on what has become known as the ‘Costa del Crash’ could lose everything.”

“Ben and Kate Byrne, newlyweds from Warrington in Cheshire, have just taken possession of their three-bedroom ‘townhouse.’ The couple, who paid 230,000 euros (£180,000) for their property, hoped to use it as a holiday retreat and to rent it out for the rest of the year.”

“‘It’s an eye sore and not exactly what we thought we were buying into,’ said Mrs Byrne. ‘Unfortunately, its rental potential isn’t much at the moment.’”

The Liverpool Echo. “The luxury £50m Baltic Triangle residential scheme on the key Wapping approach to the city centre was halted after a wrangle between Windsor Developments and builder Laing O’Rourke.”

“The fall in property values since the credit crunch meant it failed to attract any acceptable offers. The development was originally valued at £48m, but is now believed to be worth only around £10m. Documents at Companies House show the scheme collapsed owing £25.5m to Barclays and £19.8m to Laing.”

“Riverside Labour Cllr Steve Munby, whose ward includes the Baltic Triangle, said: ‘I am not surprised they have not found a purchaser for the site. This case perfectly captures the hysteria which gripped Liverpool at the peak of the property boom. I hate to say ‘I told you so.’”

The Indystar. “Indianapolis-based Davis Homes on Wednesday became the latest casualty of a national downturn in new home construction that’s seen housing starts in the metro area plummet by more than 40 percent since 2005. Many builders expect no more than 5,000 new houses to be constructed in the metro area this year, down from a peak of more than 15,000 in 2001.”

“While family-owned Davis Homes wasn’t a national powerhouse, it was a major contributor to the area’s housing stock, having built more than 12,000 homes in Central Indiana since its start in 1985. Many were in fast-growing suburban communities where homebuilders could normally bank on strong housing demand by buyers.”

“But that demand began drying up in 2006, squeezing Davis Homes out of business, CEO Brad Davis said. ‘We had to either drop prices substantially or just not sell anything,’ he said. The falloff in new home demand ‘really took a toll and just kept getting worse and worse, and it continues to get worse right up to today,’ Davis said.”

“Davis exits the market leaving about 10 of its subdivisions only partially built. Marcus Shaw, who last year moved into the first home built in Davis’ Bay Creek East development in McCordsville, said his subdivision is full of empty, overgrown lots.”

“‘What I am concerned about is the type of houses that will be built in our area (by the replacement homebuilder),’ Shaw said. ‘Will it decrease our property value, or will they be too elaborate and make our houses look like nothing?’”

“Jim Morgan, sales manager of locally based Gunstra Builders, said he thinks homebuilders overbuilt for the Indianapolis market during the period of 1998 to 2005, when new-home permits soared above 12,000 for each year.”

“‘The market was crazy. I was watching people get homes I wouldn’t have loaned lunch money,’ he said. ‘These builders (that arranged easy-to-get subprime mortgages on marginally qualified buyers) have done it to themselves. Those guys are taking a hit.’”

“Until the housing market reaches a bottom and U.S. home prices are headed higher, investors should stay in high quality assets, wrote Bill Gross, who manages the $130 billion Pimco Total Return Fund.”

“U.S. homes purchased in or after 2004 are now at risk of their mortgages turning ‘upside down’ otherwise known as ‘negative equity,’ Gross noted. Some 25 million U.S. homes are at risk of falling into negative equity, which in many cases results in foreclosures, Gross wrote.”

“‘For now, investors should remain in high quality assets until — until, well — until the prospect for home prices points skyward or until the cows come home, whichever one’s first,’ Gross wrote.”

“A major problem the housing market now faces, Gross wrote, is that 30-year fixed mortgage rates are now higher than when the Federal Reserve began to cut the funds rate in September 2007.”

“Once factoring in both the total costs of buying a home and the fact that U.S. house prices, which peaked in 2006, are still falling, ‘it is obvious that homes are not the bargains that starving realtors claim they might be,’ Gross wrote.”

The Arizona Republic. “A federal housing bill poised to become law this week is likely to help ease Arizona’s housing-market pain, but a variety of local voices in the industry said it won’t heal the deeper wounds.”

“Too many residents are neck-deep in unaffordable mortgages for Arizona’s cut of the proposed $300 billion in federal refinancing aid to save them all, government and business leaders said Wednesday.”

“‘We’ve got a huge problem here,’ said Fred Karnas, state Department of Housing director. ‘It’s obviously not going to solve the problem.’”

“‘Overall, we’re really positive about it,’ Karnas said. ‘I’ve been joking . . . that every housing bill we’ve wanted to get passed in the last 18 years somehow wound up in this bill.’”

“But Karnas said some Arizona borrowers are so deep in negative equity that no realistic refinancing deal would allow them to keep their homes. ‘I think there are some markets in which the bottom has completely fallen out,’ he said.”

“The housing bill also will provide $3.9 billion in community-development block grants for local governments nationwide to buy and rehabilitate foreclosed properties. Still, Karnas said, the amount is not significant enough to take on a large percentage of foreclosures.”

“Karnas said Arizona officials expect to receive about $100 million of the bill’s grant money. ‘A hundred-million dollars maybe buys you 500 homes,’ Karnas said. ‘It’ll make a dent, but it won’t solve the problem.’”

“Foreclosures across metro Phoenix numbered 16,647 for the first half of the year, up from 9,966 during all of 2007 and 1,070 in 2006.”

“Margie O’Campo de Castillo of Arizona Dream Realty said she doesn’t understand why lenders aren’t already trying to help homeowners refinance into fixed-rate loans to avoid foreclosure.”

“‘The housing package will help some,’ she said, ‘but we shouldn’t kid ourselves. Housing is just one failing pillar of our economy, and I’m not sure we the taxpayers have enough money to fix our housing crisis.’”

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