The Housing Bubble

The North County Times reports from California. “Business bankruptcies in San Diego County have doubled from a year ago as the housing downturn has depleted real estate companies’ assets. Real estate-related companies appear to represent the majority of the bankruptcies in San Diego, according to court records. Likewise, Chapter 7 filings, where all assets are liquidated, have jumped by 85 percent from a year ago.”

“‘There’s been a tremendous upswing in Chapter 11s,’ said John Smaha, a bankruptcy attorney in San Diego. ‘In the last 10 years, Chapter 11s were almost unheard of in San Diego.’”

“Some of those Chapter 11 filings could turn from bad to worse. ‘Sometimes people file Chapter 11 because they don’t want to give up. That’s a human response,’ said Michael T. O’Halloran, a bankruptcy attorney in San Diego. ‘But if you’re on the Titanic, it’s not going to be fun.’”

The Union Tribune. “With so much equity built up in his Imperial Beach home, Michael Ortiz thought he and his family could rent out their place and buy a new, bigger, better house. That was 2004. Four years later, Ortiz’s family, like so many others, is feeling the pinch of falling home prices, plus rising gas and food costs.”

“He asked county officials to reassess the value of his property and lower his taxes. In Ortiz’s case, he asked in October that his home - with an assessed value of $628,320 - be reduced to $553,000. County assessors reduced it even further, to $535,000. ‘I was content with $553,000, but when I saw their figure I was like, ‘Sold!’ he said.”

“He said he doesn’t regret buying his new home despite the sudden $93,000 drop in value, and he’s certainly glad he applied for a reassessment. ‘It took a lot of legwork, but the payoff is worth it,’ he said. ‘If I don’t do this, I’m basically throwing this (money) away.’”

The Orange County Register. “Remodeling contractor Eddie Kesky had a backlog of customers three years ago. Today, however, ‘tear downs’ are few and far between. After 33 months of falling home sales, a credit crunch and a 23-percent drop in home prices, owners aren’t spending so freely anymore. Plus, it’s no longer easy to get loans as home values tumble.”

“Anaheim-based Ganahl Lumber, which derives a large portion of its income from remodeling contractors, saw its sales numbers fall 7 percent in 2007, said CEO Peter Ganahl. This year so far, sales are off 15 percent from last year, he said.”

“In 2005 and 2006, remodeling contractors would be lined up outside the chain’s stores at opening time. ‘It was a madhouse,’ he said. ‘Now, it’s not such a madhouse.’”

The LA Times. “Southern California median home sale prices are down about 30% from their peak. That’s about as far as they fell in the 1990s real estate downturn, and enough of a decline to have many asking: Is it time to buy?”

“The ratio of home prices to annual rents in the Los Angeles area was 20 as of March 31, meaning the median home sale price was 20 times a year’s rent for a comparable property, according to Moody’s Economy.com. The 15-year average ratio in Los Angeles is 16.4.”

“Margaret Smith, a Claremont financial planner and former university economist, and her husband, Gary Smith, a Pomona College economist, say buying is practically a sure bet when you would pay less for a monthly mortgage and other home costs than what it would cost to rent the home.”

“They call that monthly savings the ‘home dividend’ and say it will offset a short-term decline in a home’s value. Even if your mortgage payment and expenses start out higher than comparable rent, the payment becomes relatively cheaper as rents increase — provided it is a fixed-rate loan. ‘You can certainly turn a negative into a positive over time,’ Margaret Smith said.”

“‘Stop fixating on short-term price moves; think about long-term rent savings,’ Gary Smith said.”

“If someone delays buying a house that would produce rent savings to hold out for a better price, the delay would mean losing those savings — and the loss could be compounded if prices went up instead.”

“‘Buying a house is risky, but waiting is risky too,’ Gary Smith said.”

The Monterey County Herald. “Unemployment in Monterey County, heavily reliant on the highly seasonal industries of tourism and agriculture, hit 6.6 percent in June, up from 5.5 percent for June 2007. The median selling price for a single-family home in Monterey County in June was $359,900, down 49.9 percent from the June 2007 median price of $719,000.”

“Foreclosures keep climbing at record pace: 847 homes were lost to foreclosure in the second quarter of this year, up 443 percent over the same quarter last year.”

“But market adjustments have created opportunity: Would-be buyers, long priced out of the real estate market, are finding themselves more likely to be able to afford homes in Monterey County.”

“Becky D’Addea Jones, an agent in Monterey, received more than 35 offers in nine days on a bank-owned property in Seaside - a record for her company. Most, she suspects, are from first-time home buyers. The house, which its previous owner bought for $600,000, is listed for $190,000.”

The Times Herald. “The bill signed Wednesday by President Bush, designed to rescue homeowners facing foreclosure, may do more harm than good, local real estate experts said Thursday.”

“‘It made the extended FHA loan limits permanent, and that’s good, especially in California where homes are more expensive, but a bunch of things were tacked on to the bill that made it not such a great deal,’ said Solano Association of Realtors President Lori Collins. Those permanent limits will be lower than the temporary higher limits that expire in January.”

“‘I have no clients that will be helped by this, and some will be hurt,’ she said. ‘One of the provisions in the bill does away with the down payment assistance programs, so it actually seems to make matters worse.’”

“The ‘tax credit’ of up to $7,500 offered by the bill to first-time homebuyers is actually a no-interest loan, Collins said. ‘So, about two years after taking this credit, homeowners will have to start paying it back, which could add another $500 a year to their property tax bill,’ she said.”

“Whatever provisions the bill contained aimed at saving homeowners facing foreclosure, appear to have vanished from the final version, Collins said.”

“‘It seems to put some pressure on lenders to restructure some of their adjustable rate loans, but it doesn’t require it,’ she said. ‘And if they do, and there’s appreciation in five years, you have to split it 50/50 with the government.’”

“Benicia mortgage broker Mitchell Chernock of Sky Valley Financial and mortgage banker John Murphy of Vallejo’s Metro Gold Financial, said no one yet knows all the law’s ramifications. They said, however, the new law appears to fall far short of the economic rescue many were seeking.”

“‘It’s a lot of political hogwash and rhetoric for election-year purposes only,’ Murphy said. ‘It won’t really help anybody and will probably hurt people, especially around here.’”

“‘They raised the amount of down payment needed for the FHA loans from 3 percent to 3.5 percent and the down payment assistance through nonprofit organizations, goes away,’ Murphy said. ‘Ninety percent of the loans we’ve done this year have been through these programs. So, those people wouldn’t be able to buy a home now.’”

“‘We’re keeping all our clients on the sidelines until we know what’s really going on,’ Chernock said. ‘It doesn’t look like the federal government will do what we were hoping and expecting they’d do and step in to help struggling homeowners.’”

“Murphy said he expects the bill will slow sales, which were just starting to pick up locally, and exert added downward pressure on home values. ‘I don’t see how this is going to help anybody, in California, anyway,’ Murphy said.”

“And the eventual outcome of one provision, which provides funds for cities and counties to rehab foreclosed-on homes to create affordable housing, is questionable, Murphy said. ‘I don’t know how I feel about cities and counties getting into the house-flipping business,’ he said.”

The San Francisco Business Times. “California Mortgage and Realty President David Choo is selling off nine properties in a bid to save his struggling private mortgage company. The properties listed for sale include an office tower development site at 524 Howard St.; a two-family building in Pacific Heights; a condo at the St. Regis; houses in Piedmont and St. Helena; a condo in New York; and the seven-parcel assemblage at First and Mission.”

“Starting in late 2007, CMR borrowers started running into problems. Delinquencies in CMR’s fund II portfolio increased $52.9 million from December 31, 2007 to May 31. As of May 31, 21 CMR loans worth $84.9 million were delinquent, of which $81.9 million was delinquent more than 90 days, according to the SEC filing. CMR says its borrowers have been ‘increasingly unable to make their loan payments, find equity partners, sell or refinance their properties in order to meet their obligations to our investors.’”

“For now, CMR investors have no choice but to be patient. The company suspended redemptions and cash distributions to investors on March 31. As of May 31, $29.9 million of redemption requests are currently outstanding.”

“Bill Wessels, who has $1.4 million invested in CMR funds and has been an investor with Choo for a decade, said he is willing to give the company time to work through the foreclosures and bankruptcies.”

“‘You’re either a doubting Thomas or you keep the faith,’ said Wessels. ‘The ones who get shaken out of the bowl are going to be the losers.’”

The Sacramento Bee. “In another marker on the economic misery scale, a 1.1 million-square-foot mall on tap for southern Sacramento County has stalled, officials confirmed Thursday. The Elk Grove Promenade, an open-air regional mall that repeatedly has pushed back an opening date, is among a number of retail projects nationally that General Growth Properties Inc. of Chicago will delay, several City Council members said.”

“Elk Grove has become an epicenter of the housing market downturn. And unemployment regionally is the highest in 12 years. ‘We’re just not seeing the retail sales we’d like to see in Elk Grove,’ said John Wallace, a strip mall developer with properties in Elk Grove.

“‘If retailers are saying we’re slow in Northern California … or in Miami, and we’re going to hold back, that’s the start of the dominoes,’ Wallace said.”

“The cutbacks have already started. Californians - spooked by negative economic news and the tens of billions of dollars they’ve lost to rising gas prices and disappearing home equity - are ratcheting down their spending. It’s true even for those who’ve avoided foreclosure or a pink slip.”

“Tim Einer, a software trainer in Lincoln, considers himself upper middle class but has seen his home equity fall by $225,000. He traded his Jaguar for a fuel-efficient Chevy, scrapped a European vacation and stocks up at Target whenever possible.”

“‘I have worries all the time - you just see how the economy is,’ Einer said. ‘I don’t think any of us are guaranteed anything anymore.’”

“In California, ‘equity extractions’ - the volume of cash homeowners generate through refinancing, home equity loans or outright sales - fell 20 percent last year, according to DataQuick.”

“That’s a loss of $25 billion, or nearly 2 percent of the state’s output - a figure economists regard as significant. Equity extractions fell 44 percent the first four months of this year, pulling an additional $15 billion out of the economy.”

“The falling real estate market has been doubly burdensome for Meredith Wharton, a Folsom real estate agent. Not only is she ‘working twice as hard for half the reward,’ she and her husband, Mark, have had to adjust to the decline in their own home equity.”

“Because they both live mainly on commission income, they frequently use their home equity line of credit to smooth out fluctuations in their paychecks. But their available credit was recently cut in half, to $50,000, reducing their financial cushion.”

“Though they haven’t seriously changed their standard of living, ‘we’re cutting back, we’re holding cash,’ she said. ‘We’re more nervous. Instead of taking a two-week vacation, flying to Hawaii or somewhere, we’re thinking of taking a driving trip or not going anywhere.’”

I suggested a topic on retirees and the housing bubble, with this article. “These are tough economic times for people of all ages, but few are affected more than senior citizens living on pensions and Social Security. ‘Americans age 55 or older experienced the sharpest rise in bankruptcy filings during the 16-year period between 1991 and 2007, according to a report released by AARP, ‘Generations of Struggle.’ The rate of personal bankruptcy filings among those ages 65 or older grew by 125 percent, while the bankruptcy rate of seniors ages 75 to 84 jumped a stunning 433.3 percent.’”

“‘It’s frightening. It’s a horror story in the making. It will not get better. It will continue to get worse,’ said Thomas Mackell., chairman of the board of directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and author of ‘When the Good Pensions Go Away.’ ‘We are facing a generation of boomers where 55 percent of them are ill-prepared economically to retire.’”

A reply, “What’s the average 401K balance, like 60 grand? That’ll last a year or two at best. I have a bad feeling there are a lot of boomers out there that will be hurting. A lot of people say that it just means people will keep working, but where? And no, it will not be their houses that save them.”

Another posted, “Problem is, the Boomers expected it to go on and on forever (and they’ve done their damnest to try and keep it all propped up)… and haven’t planned for any future…”

To which was said, “This is exactly it. Most people, once they make money think it will go on for ever. My landlord made a couple hundred K on his prior rental property so he sold it at the peak and bought a bigger one. Now he looses 1800 a month when the place is fully rented. He says he is a year or two from bankruptcy. We’re moving to a new place this weekend. He hasn’t rented our unit yet. Ouch.”

One referred to the article, “Those stats on seniors filing for BK are nothing short of alarming.”

“How the REIC thought it would become typical for seniors to play with houses is another sign of the retirement fetish. For all the hype about seniors in AZ and FL, there are many, many more like my parents, and their neighbors, who are only leaving their homes (for many their first and only one) feet first.”

One observed, “Was talking to a couple of neighbors the other eve. All of us fall into that much-ballyhooed boomer age group. One neighbor noted that she has around $250k in her retirement account. The house is also paid off.”

“And guess what she and her partner aren’t about to buy? If you guessed ‘another house,’ you’re right. They have no intentions of living for their house payment during their senior years.”

One viewed it this way, “I consider a paid-for house a source of imputed tax-free cash flow. The amount of rent one would otherwise pay to someone else is instead paid to himself - tax free. If one were to purchase a tax free bond and use its interest to pay his rent, how much would the bond cost?”

“Whatever the cost, this could be considered the value of his house as measured by the imputed rent the house generates after all expenses.”

A reply, “What you’re saying here brings up a question I often struggle with: pay off the house or keep the cash? So far I’ve been going with ‘keep the cash.’ My thinking being that when cash is king, if I’ve paid off my house, I won’t be able to get easy access to the cash when there are great land/business/stock opportunities. On the other hand, I hate having the mortgage payment.”

One posted, “I contend that most of this $ holding demographic ALREADY retired. I can only speak for VT and NY but depending on department, you can draw on your pension as early as 50 years old. And this warped notion gave birth to all the moronic expressions we love to castigate like ‘the boomers are coming,’ ‘rich retirees want to live here’ blah blah blah.”

Another saw this, “The boomers retiring should do nothing but produce churn in the market.”

“Sell your 3000 sq/ft home in NJ, buy a 1500 sq/ft home in FL. Still the same number of homes out there, and still one for sale. Most boomers aren’t buying a 2nd home at 60 years old, they either already own it, or will sell their primary residence to buy their retirement home.”

“And, frankly, most of the boomers aren’t going anywhere. However, if the ’sell then buy’ does become real, it could put extreme pressure on house prices in the areas the boomers are leaving (NY comes to mind).”

One had this, “My parents were between the Boomers and ‘Greatest Generation.’ They owned thier own primary residences, and were RE investors over their lifetimes. As they grew older, they SOLD their ‘investment’ properties so they could have less work (rentals are a LOT of work) and more cash on hand.”

“Much easier to invest in fixed-income bonds/CDs than to manage rentals, especially when you are older. This notion that Boomers are going to save **any** market is a sham - stocks, housing, bonds, etc. will all be sold off as they age. This was meant to be what they lived off in retirement. They will not be investing NEW money after they retire, IMHO.”

From Bloomberg. “As a Mercedes-Benz E-Class sedan glides through a security check and uniformed staff straighten deck chairs by an outdoor pool, well-heeled serenity masks the upheaval taking place at Madrid’s most exclusive golf club.”

“Golfers at La Moraleja, like those at courses across Spain, are rushing to sell memberships. That’s cut their value by 32 percent since 2006, according to Pilar Sanchez, an administrator at the club.”

“‘It’s the first thing they get rid of,’ Sanchez says. ‘Next it’s the beach house.’”

“Wealthy Spaniards are abandoning luxuries as a decade-long economic boom based on the homebuilding industry comes to an abrupt halt. The richest 10 percent of Spanish families have two-thirds of their fortunes tied up in real estate, according to a Bank of Spain survey published last year.”

“With property values on the slide and banks curbing lending, dumping golf memberships is one way to raise cash quickly.”

“‘It’s a sign of the times,’ says Susana Garcia-Cervero, an economist at Deutsche Bank AG in London. ‘Many potential clients were in the real-estate market. They made a lot of money and now some are going to go under.’”

“Maria Dubois is asking 75,000 euros for the share she and her husband have at a club in the seaside resort of Sancti Petri, near Cadiz in southwest Spain. The couple will put the proceeds toward a new apartment and rent membership at the club for about 200 euros a month instead. With interest rates in Spain around 6 percent, paying off a loan for a 75,000-euro membership is almost twice as expensive as renting access to the same club.”

“‘I’m not short of money, but it’s a bit more difficult to get a mortgage loan,’ says Dubois, a 37-year-old travel writer. ‘This will help to pay for it.’”

“Wealthy Spaniards bought golf shares as an investment in the past decade when they had credit on tap, says Javier Olmos, a co- owner of Madrid-based 18golfclub, which brokers membership sales. That created a price bubble similar to the one in the housing market, where prices surged even when renting was cheaper.”

“Members also pay monthly greens fees of as much as 300 euros, Olmos says. Spain’s golf industry has surged in line with the housing boom. Investors bankrolled more than 100 new courses in the past 10 years, turning the sport into a $2.4 billion annual business. Many Spaniards started playing after buying vacation homes adjoining courses, Olmos says.”

“With inflation at a 13-year high eating into spending power and oil prices near a record, wealthy Spaniards are reconsidering other luxuries too. Sales of Audi AG’s Q7 sport utility vehicle, a $100,000 favorite in downtown Madrid, slumped by two-thirds in June from a year earlier, according to the Spanish Car and Truckmakers Association. Bulgari SpA, the world’s third-largest jeweler, is reporting slower sales in Spain.”

“Business at Spain’s hotels and restaurants contracted for the first time in more than three years in April, declining 3.7 percent on the year, according to the National Statistics Institute.”

“That slump means other exclusive hangouts are suffering. At the Puerta 57 restaurant in Real Madrid’s Bernabeu Stadium, the dining room is two-thirds empty on a recent afternoon. Fewer executives are tucking into the 100-euro lunch menu that attracts expense-account diners.”

“‘There’s the crisis for you,’ says Jose Carlos Diez, chief economist at Intermoney SA, Spain’s largest bond dealer, as he surveys the room. ‘A year ago we would have struggled for a table here and now look.’”

“‘People are going to have to cut their consumption,’ says Josep Prats, who heads a team managing about 11 billion euros at Ahorro Corporacion in Madrid. ‘They have been living beyond their means.’”

The Missoulian. “People are growing increasingly anxious as they react to gloomy news about the volatile stock market, ailing housing industry, and rising food and fuel costs. ‘There’s no question that this has created a lot of fear and angst,’ said Robert Seidenschwarz, financial adviser in Missoula, who estimates a 20 percent increase in activity recently.”

“Until the markets settle, brokers and financial planners said they are trying to reassure their clients. ‘We’re seeing more and more retirees coming in for estate planning because of the markets,’ Seidenschwarz said. ‘We’re in a bubble and it will take several years to get out of it.’”

“Missoula residents Nancy and Paul Svelmoe are planning for their retirement by investing mainly in real estate. They’ve owned a rental house in central Missoula for about 12 years and also have rented a house in Las Vegas since 2005.”

“They are now hunting for a single-family residence in Las Vegas, which was overbuilt and where home prices have dropped considerably.”

“‘We’ve always felt that real estate is the most solid investment, even with the ups and downs,’ said Nancy Svelmoe, 58. ‘It is something tangible that you will always have.’”

“She said the couple is confident that Las Vegas’ real estate will recover. ‘We feel people moving from California, where there is no place to grow, and the snowbirds will be part of the upturn in Las Vegas,’ she said.”

The Press of Atlantic City. “Touring the resort’s southern end on a wintry night is like being in a giant snowglobe full of beautiful but deserted million-dollar homes. No other place in America outside the Hurricane Katrina-ravaged South has lost more residents in the past five years than Cape May County, according to the Wall Street Journal.”

“Frankly, local experts say, many people can’t afford to live here. ‘It conforms with everything you hear and observe about Cape May,’ economist Richard Perniciaro said. ‘Schools are losing kids quickly. There are not a lot of young families.’”

“Perniciaro said older residents are dying or moving to warmer climates. Meanwhile, younger families are not taking their places. ‘An estate goes up for sale or a couple moves out who’s lived in Sea Isle City for 50 years,’ Perniciaro said. ‘They tear the house down and put up a quadraplex for second homeowners or vacationers. They displace a full-time resident.’”

“The U-Haul store at Cape May Riggins vouches for that. ‘I know of a lot of older folks who have died,’ Mechanic Joe Roth said. ‘They have kids from out of state who will take over the property as a vacation home,’ he said.”

“Ocean City Mayor Sal Perillo formed a special committee to investigate why the resort was losing so many of its landmark restaurants to new condos. Classes at Sea Isle City’s elementary school are so small the board is considering closing.”

“And the young families that Perniciaro identified need decent-paying, year-round jobs - the kind of jobs that are relatively scarce in a county dominated by seasonal tourism, Smith said. ‘Young families are flexible. They can pick up and move,’ he said. ‘These young families are probably going where they can afford housing.’”