The Housing Bubble

The LA Times reports from California. “Southern California home sales rose last month for the first time in nearly three years, although prices continued their downward spiral, data released today showed. In July, the region’s median price fell 31% from a year ago to $348,000, the lowest since February 2004, when the local real estate market was in the throes of an extraordinary boom, according to DataQuick.”

“There’s no question that it’s the purchase of the foreclosures that are driving local sales. Foreclosure resales in July composed 43.6% of all transactions, DataQuick reported.”

“Los Angeles County was the weak link for home sales. The region’s biggest county posted an all-time July low of 6,592 sales, down 3.2% from a year ago. The median price, meanwhile, dropped 27% to $400,000.”

The Union Tribune. “San Diego County home sales rose to their highest point in more than a year last month, but prices, depressed by growing foreclosures, continued to fall, DataQuick reported Monday. Overall median prices dropped to $364,000, down 1.6 percent from June and off 25.6 percent from year-ago levels.”

“The median price of single-family resale houses dropped to $399,000, the first time the price has dropped below the $400,000 mark since June 2003. The latest figure was $6,000 less than in June and $151,000 or 27.5 percent below July 2007’s $550,000. The all-time resale single-family peak was $574,000 in May 2006.”

“In North San Diego County coastal ZIP codes, where foreclosures and defaults have been relatively few, the overall median price on a resale home slid the most in July of any of the five subregions – down 31.1 percent from $697,000 in July 2007 to $480,000 last month.”

The North County Times. “Foreclosures ranged from 22.2 percent of resold homes in Orange County last month to 64.4 percent in Riverside County. DataQuick said foreclosures were at record highs and continue to be “the dominant factor’ driving sales.”

“‘What we’re looking at is a fire sale of properties in newer affordable neighborhoods that were bought or refinanced near the price peak with lousy mortgages,’ said John Walsh, president of MDA DataQuick.”

The Press Enterprise. “The number of homes sold in July soared nearly 50 percent in Riverside County from July 2007 and about 25 percent in San Bernardino County, DataQuick reported. But the traffic in foreclosed or defaulted properties is continuing to drive down sales prices. The median sales price in July was $260,000 in Riverside County and $230,000 in San Bernardino County. Both represent declines of about $10,000 to $15,000 in the last month.”

“Prices in the Inland Empire are down roughly $170,000 from their peaks of late 2006.”

“Real estate agents and lenders warn that the federal housing package that goes into effect October 1 is likely to cut short this year’s surge of foreclosure purchases by first-time home buyers.”

“Concerned about a setback in what may be the start of a housing industry recovery, they are lobbying to reverse a provision of the legislation that would prevent first-time buyers from obtaining down payment assistance from sellers, including the banks that own foreclosed properties.”

“Rich Cosner, president of nine Prudential California Realty offices in Southern California, said the potential loss of these down payment assistance programs should be enough to push some prospective home buyers off the fence.”

“‘If someone is thinking about buying a first house, it would behoove them to get into escrow and get it closed—now,’ he said.”

The Desert Sun. “The TV ad looked so attractive. No down payment and low fixed rates, the commercial promised. Doug Cron and Ernie Meeker called, got a $280,000 loan and moved into their first house three years ago. But within a few months, the couple’s dream in Cathedral City turned into a nightmare. ‘We figured, like the property we owned before, that the property would go up in value,’ Meeker said.”

“Then, the five-year fixed rate the couple thought they had received began to adjust as home values began to crash.”

“‘The truth is real estate goes up and down,’ said Assemblywoman Bonnie Garcia, Cathedral City, who has tried to address the housing crisis with a lending bill that would have eliminated pre-payment penalties that discourage refinancing on nontraditional loans.”

“‘If your pocketbook doesn’t go up that fast or life happens to you, you’re derailed,’ she said.”

“Within three months of the ink drying, the couple’s $720 mortgage started creeping up. First by about $50 a month. Then another $50. And another. When their mortgage payment jumped to more than $2,200 a month, they stopped making payments.”

“‘I wasn’t reading stuff,’ acknowledged Meeker, who at the time of the contract-signing was on dialysis because of kidney failure.”

“And Cron is legally blind and could not read the contract. They trusted the real estate agent, who earned top commission in the deal by brokering a higher loan and interest rate, documents show.”

“About a year after they moved in, the couple realized their $720 mortgage was, in actuality, a minimum payment that did not cover the mounting interest, let alone the principal. They now regret signing the contract, saying they felt pressured to do so when the loan officer told them they would lose their $75,000 down payment.”

“In June, the couple sidestepped formal foreclosure proceedings to salvage their credit by signing the home back over to the bank.”

“‘We lost our life’s savings in (that) place,’ Cron said. ‘Our savings are depleted. We’re back to (living) month-to-month again. So, there’s really no way of getting back into a home.’”

“‘Who’s to say who’s right and who’s wrong?’ said Ray Henderson, a former loan officer with a now-defunct mortgage brokerage and now executive VP of National Real Estate Solutions in Palm Springs, which sells homes headed into foreclosure.”

“‘The underwriting standard became more and more lax,’ Henderson said. ‘They made it a little too easy to get loans.’”

“Despite the collective hand-wringing about the economy now, some saw the economic downturn coming. Charlie Reeds, a financial analyst and Wall Street consultant, predicted it four years ago.”

“While slow to respond to market indicators in a booming economy, Reeds believes Congressional oversight and investment fears have been and will continue to be the right economic correction.”

“‘You just cannot build the economy on the appreciation of real estate,’ said Reeds. ‘No one wanted to get in the way of what was making the economy do well.’”

The Ventura County Star. “Simi Valley could become the home of Ventura County’s largest Habitat for Humanity housing project. The nonprofit organization has been working with the Affordable Housing Subcommittee of Simi Valley with the hopes of purchasing property on Patricia Avenue to build 10 town homes.”

“Rob Bruce, deputy director of housing and special projects for the city of Simi Valley, noted the city’s housing slump has made it easier for nonprofits to buy land.”

“‘No new projects are really selling right now. Prices are still falling with the economy,’ Bruce said.”

From KFSN TV. “Merced is number two in the nation when it comes to foreclosure filings and the county’s unemployment rate is the highest in valley. Only Cape Coral/Fort Myers Florida has it worse, giving Merced the dubious distinction of second in the nation.”

“The ranking came as a shock to Ellie Wooten. She said she knew things were bad, but she didn’t realize her community was among the worst in the nation. ‘I just hate to see that,’ said Wooten.”

“Wooten now finds herself wearing two hats; one, as the city’s mayor, the other, as a realtor. She and her fellow realtors say it’s common for each of them to see 5-10 new foreclosure listings a week. White boards in several offices show dozens of REO’s, or real estate owned listings.”

“The foreclosure issue in Merced is now capturing the attention of national media. Wooten was interviewed by a New York Times reporter last week and drove him around town to show him the reality of the problem. ‘This is the real story. It’s not a fairytale, it’s not pleasant, it’s not funny, it’s serious. And people are being hurt,’ said Wooten.”

The Contra Costa Times. “Brian Riley of Martinez, a day trader, once lived for his twice-monthly boating trips to Bethel Harbor. But now, with the cost of gas, ‘I’m lucky if I get there once a month,’ Riley said.”

“And there hangs the economic fate of California’s Delta, which comprises roughly 1,000 miles of navigable waters from Pittsburg to the west, to Courtland to the north, to Stockton to the east, then on to Tracy and back to Pittsburg.”

“As of May, California had 799,918 registered pleasure boats and an estimated 36.5 million residents, or roughly one boat for every 46 people, according to the Department of Motor Vehicles. In July 2007, there were 914,448 registered pleasure boats in the state. ‘It went down quite a bit, over 100,000′ said Armando Botello, a DMV spokesman.”

“‘The whole Delta economy is based around boating,’ said Jamie Bolt, harbormaster of Bethel Harbor marina. As gas prices soared, business at marinas, bait-and-tackle shops, boat dealerships, restaurants and repair shops plummeted.”

“Bolt and others point out that gas prices aren’t the only problem. The housing market crisis has combined with fuel costs to deal a one-two punch to Delta businesses.”

“For example, construction on Delta Coves, planned as Bethel Island’s largest and most upscale residential development, with 494 single-family homes and 66 condominiums, halted in mid-July because of East County’s troubled housing market. Irvine-based developer SunCal Companies put the project on hold when demand for new homes plunged, according to company spokesman Joe Aguirre.”

“Home prices have plunged in the area, according to Annie Brown, a Zip Realty agent in East County.”

“‘I’m swamped because $800,000 homes are going for $340,000, $400,000 in Antioch and Brentwood. Even in Discovery Bay, there are homes in the $300,000, $400,000 range,’ Brown said.”

“Riley is trying to sell his sports boat. ‘Nobody is interested,’ Riley said. ‘I offered it super cheap and I still haven’t heard anything. I bought it for $43,000 three years ago. Even if I sold it for $40,000, it would be a cheap price. I chose $36,000 for a quick sale and I haven’t had any calls at all.’”

A report from Crain’s New York Business. “Fueled in large part by the number of homeowners who could not keep up with monthly payments on subprime loans, 14,407 people filed for bankruptcy in the New York area during the first seven months of this year, compared with 11,026 in that period last year, according to bankruptcy court records.”

“Noel, a 28-year-old math teacher from Harlem who asked that his last name not be used, always thought it would be smart to invest in real estate. So when his cousin introduced him to a mortgage broker who promised he wouldn’t have to put a penny down on a $1 million piece of property in New Rochelle, he jumped at the chance.”

“Then, the same broker told him about a home in Yonkers. Again, he didn’t have to put any money down. Before he realized what he was getting into, Noel says, he was scammed into signing two mortgages totaling more than $1.5 million.”

“‘I make $50,000 as a schoolteacher,’ he says. ‘There’s no way I should have been approved for loans that big.’”

“Hemmed in by monthly payments totaling more than $10,000 and bills for maintaining a third property on Long Island, Noel had no choice but to file for bankruptcy, he says. He filed without the help of a lawyer-he couldn’t afford one-and he plans to walk away from the three homes and get a fresh start, this time without dreams of making it big.’

“‘I thought real estate was a good business,’ he says. ‘But I guess it’s not for me. I’m not buying property again-ever again.’”

The Philadelphia Business Journal from Pennsylvania. “Developers who had high hopes of meeting strong demand for new condominiums along the Main Line a year ago have had to lower their expectations or are waiting out the current housing downturn.”

“One of those yet-to-be-built projects, called Allaire, is on the market with permits and all if another developer wants to scoop it up for the right price. Barring that, Allaire’s would-be developer, architect Tom Hall, is ready to wait for the market to improve.”

“Recognizing how the residential market, economy and financing have changed in the past year, Hall has put the 2.3-acre, 20 North Buck Lane site on the market.”

“‘I suspect what I will do is wait out a certain period of time and sit on it because I think it’s such a good opportunity,’ he said. ‘I think there’s a market for this kind of product, and I think at some point this would be a home run.’”

The Courier Times from Pennsylvania. “Sales of existing homes in Bucks County were down 26.8 percent in the first half of the year, compared to the first half of 2007, according to data compiled by Prudential Fox & Roach Realtors. In Montgomery County, home sales were down 24.3 percent.”

“The average price of a home also fell in that time period, from $293,000 to $282,000 in Bucks County and from $270,000 to $265,000 in Montgomery.”

“In Springfield, buyers of homes in the Springtown Knoll development will get a free Toyota Prius, said Megan Reshetar, a sales associate for homebuilder Reshetar Custom Homes. Two of the 20 homes, which start at $590,000, have been sold, Reshetar said.”

“In Buckingham, the Cape Cod-style home has been on the market since May. The free car promotion began in June, said Realtor Susan Langenstein, who’s representing the seller. Langenstein said buyers could negotiate a reduction in price instead of the car.”

“‘As a Realtor, I don’t like doing things like this,’ she said. ‘I think it’s a very much a price-driven market, and people are very in tune to that. I’d much rather you take the money off the top. But what it has created is a little bit of excitement. We’re all looking for that.’”

The Press of Atlantic City in New Jersey. “At the Harbour Cove North condominiums in Somers Point, the neighbors are quiet and unassuming. That’s because there aren’t any neighbors.”

“Almost a year after the 14 units went on the market, general manager Jeff Vogt said only one of the condos is occupied, with another currently under contract. The dearth in sales comes as hundreds of new residential units are planned to go up in Somers Point over the next few years.”

“The going prices for the two- and three-bedroom Harbour Cove North condos, located on Bay Avenue overlooking the Harbour Cove Marina, are listed as starting in the low $600,000s. ‘It’s a secondary market,’ Vogt said. ‘It’s a lifestyle change for a lot of people.’”

“He added that resales at some of the other condominiums on the Harbour Cove property were still strong, with some going for as high as $1.2 million. ‘It’s still above where the levels were when (prices) started to escalate five years ago,’ Vogt said.”

“The perception of a weak real estate market nationally, said Fred Fisch, a real estate agent with Vanguard Property Group of Egg Harbor Township, contributes to many buyers’ reluctance to close the deal.”

“‘I think it has its effect,’ Fisch said, ‘and perception matters a lot, unfortunately.’”

“But Fisch, who also serves as the president of the condo association at Greate Bay, said there’s been an upswing of activity there recently that bodes well for the future. ‘A lot of people are realizing that we’re never going to get prices to what they were,’ Fisch said.”

The Times from New Jersey. “Frank Wible, owner of ReMax All Pros Realty, said homebuyers who walk into his office these days are interested in just two things. ‘They all come into our office and they say, ‘I want to see foreclosures and short sales,’ said Wible, whose brokerage is in Gloucester County. ‘They’re all saying the same thing. They want the best deal coming.’”

“In New Jersey, the regional market that saw the biggest drop in home prices during the second quarter was the Newark-Union ‘metropolitan statistical area,’ or MSA, where the median price fell 6.9 percent, to $420,000. The Newark-Union MSA includes Essex, Hunterdon, Morris, Sussex and Union counties. Next in line was the New York-northern New Jersey MSA, where the median home price fell 5.3 percent, to $453,400.”

“A record rise in foreclosures is only adding to the glut. Statewide, some 931 borrowers lost their homes to their lenders in July.”

“Jarrod Grasso, executive VP of the New Jersey Association of Realtors, said Trenton lawmakers need to step up and address New Jersey’s sky-high property tax rates to help bolster the state’s housing market and economy.”

“‘It’s time for Trenton to stop talking about easing the property tax burden and start implementing measures that truly reform our property tax system,’ he said.”

The Boston Globe from Massachusetts. “The average assessed value for single-family homes in Massachusetts fell for the first time in more than a decade last year, even as property tax bills continued to climb.”

“‘Values go down and tax rates go up and everyone pays a little more and they aren’t happy,’ said James C. Judge, the assistant assessor in Kingston, where the average bill jumped 9.8 percent, following a tax override, and assessed values dropped nearly 5 percent.”

“In previous years, homeowners facing tax hikes could console themselves with the knowledge that their home’s value had increased. Statewide property values had double-digit percent gains each year between 2001 and 2005, according to the state.”

“But that’s not the case this year, and it could get worse because of the sagging real estate market.”

“‘When values have gone down, people have to understand there is a lag time and it doesn’t reflect market value,’ said Richard Gorden, a member of the Sharon Board of Assessors and also a real estate agent. ‘There’s no way around that.’”

“For the past year, Weston homeowners paid the highest average tax bills in the state, a staggering $14,537. Six other communities, all but one in the suburbs west of Boston, had bills averaging more than $10,000.”

“Pond View Village promised to turn an old glue factory in Gloucester into 125 affordable apartments and condominiums. But with only the first two phases completed, and many units unsold, a foreclosure auction is scheduled Tuesday for three lots on which the final units were to be built.”

“Palmer Cove Condominium, a 15-unit development in Salem, was built to create affordable home ownership in The Point, the city’s poorest neighborhood. But after only one person applied to buy, the nonprofit developer now wants to rent out the units to avoid foreclosure.”

“‘When we started this project in 2004, there was a need for home ownership,’ said Michael Whelan, executive director of Salem Harbor Community Development Corp. ‘There still is a need, but clearly there has been a market adjustment.’”

“Cape Ann Housing Opportunity couldn’t make its loan payments to MassHousing. MassHousing last year took title to half of the condo units, which now are being sold for about $200,000 each, an official said.”

“‘You sell for what the market will bear,’ said Joseph Flatley, president of MassHousing. ‘The units are more affordable than we intended.’”

The Boston Herald from Massachusetts. “Greetings from Dorchester, the nation’s new vacation hotspot. More than a dozen condos, many in abandoned or distressed buildings, have sold at sky-high prices to ‘buyers’ using mortgages designed for vacation homes, according to a local housing researcher.”

“There’s the mysterious ‘San Francisco woman’ whose vacation dream spot apparently is the third floor of a run-down triple-decker on Whitfield Street in Codman Square. She paid $339,000 for a previously foreclosed unit, one that sold just a few months before for $65,000, according to real estate records.”

“Then there’s the man whose vacation getaway just happens to be a floor below his own third-floor condo. After spending $340,000 to buy the third floor of 15 Santuit St. in Codman Square with a conventional loan, he paid another $340,000, with a second-home mortgage, to buy the second floor.”

“‘When he’s on vacation, he can go to the second floor,’ said John Anderson, a longtime Dorchester resident and housing researcher who uncovered the increase in vacation-home loans.”

“As hundreds of bank-seized condos, many in triple-deckers, sit unsold, they are tempting target for speculators seeking to snap them up at rock-bottom prices. Such properties are then flipped for big profits, often in sales using straw or phony buyers.”

“43 Whitfield is just one example of at least a dozen cases where real estate speculators have turned to mortgages designed for second homes to finance questionable deals, according to Anderson.”

“Most of the condos were sold at well-above market prices well past the $300,000 mark, despite sitting in triple-deckers or multi-families with other units in foreclosure that could be purchased for $50,000 or less, Anderson said.”

“‘All over Dorchester there are developments sitting there empty and these guys are selling them like they are nothing,’ Anderson said. ‘You could buy a whole triple-decker in that neighborhood for that price,’ he said of the $339,000 vacation condo Christine Hoyte of San Francisco, bought at 43 Whitfield.”

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