The Housing Bubble

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “A 91 percent spike in foreclosure sales dropped the August median house price in Santa Cruz County 24 percent from a year ago. The new single-family home median landed at $582,000 compared to $770,000 in 2007 and $607,500 in July. The last time the median hit such a mark was in February 2004 when it settled at $560,000.”

“August’s median, calculated by Gary Gangnes of Real Options Realty, stunned UC Santa Cruz economics professor Michael Hutchison.”

“‘That can’t be Santa Cruz,’ said Hutchison. ‘It’s come down more than I would have expected. People have been saying coastal real estate would hold up better, but we’re seeing a decline that matches other areas.’”

“The flood of foreclosures is due to ‘very creative loans that should never have been allowed,’ said Scotts Valley real estate agent Nick Vrolyk. Vrolyk represented buyer and seller when a foreclosed Corralitos home sold in August. The home, purchased for $700,000, sold for $133,875.”

“Hutchison sees speculative buying as a factor in the run-up. ‘People were willing to pay higher prices because they anticipated increases in value,’ he said. ‘That price expectation has been blown away.’”

“Many Americans are discovering an unfortunate twist to the housing crisis: even after selling a home and moving away, they might have to keep paying on it for years, even decades. Mike and Linda Kelly needed to sell their house in the foreclosure-plagued Central Valley of California when Mr. Kelly got a new job 75 miles away.”

“The Kellys owe $300,000 on their house. But the best offer they could get gave the bank $220,000. CitiMortgage said it would approve a sale at that price, but at the last minute told the Kellys they needed to pay $166 a month for the next 20 years, a total of $40,000.”

“‘When you are ready to participate in the loss, feel free to call me,’ a Citi loss mitigation specialist wrote to them in an e-mail message.”

“Stacie Warner called her mortgage holder when she lost her job as a medical receptionist last November. She hoped to avoid foreclosure on her home in Palmetto, but it didn’t work.”

“‘We’ve been told loss mitigation that you can not talk to them that they will contact you so we sit here wondering every day if the phone’s going to ring, when the phone does ring it’s the mortgage company asking for money not saying we’re willing to help,’ said Warner.”

“The state’s housing market has slowed significantly, which has been a topic of discussion this week during the Alabama Association of Realtors convention. Randy McKinney, owner of Realty Executives Gulf Coast, said that after Ivan in 2004, the condo-flipping market heated up, but after Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the market cooled down. Condo owners were stuck with mortgages worth more than the actual property.”

“‘They gambled - they lost the gamble,’ McKinney said.”

“While many people across the country are worried about the effects the crashing American economy may have on Canada, Calgarians are no different. Homeowner Maryanne Bishop worries the markets will affect the price of her house, which she was set to sell. ‘The housing market is already slowing down and I’m worried what this will do to it, now.’”

“Foreclosure sales in Scottsdale in August more than doubled from a year ago…according to the monthly report from the Arizona State University Realty Studies Department. Scottsdale’s median price last month for traditional home sales was $447,500, down 20 percent from a year ago.”

“Only about 2 percent of homes listed at more than $1 million sold last month, according to figures from the Arizona Regional MLS. Scottsdale has about 3,850 homes on the market, a roughly 12-month supply, and more than one-third of those are homes listed at over $1 million, said Scottsdale Realtor Gary Holloway.”

“Home sales overall dipped just 4 percent to 345. ‘It’s almost a carbon copy of last August,’ Holloway said. ‘We’re buying the same number of houses.’”

“The bad housing news has hit home. Quadrant says it is laying off 45 people; a 20-percent reduction in what Quadrant calls its associates. Quadrant is the state’s largest single-family home builder.”

“Realtors are philosophical. Realtor Mona Spencer says it’s scary if you watch the news. ‘Think of it this way. Would you rather have your money in real estate or the market? I’d rather (in) real estate,’ Spencer said.”

“Spoken like a true realtor! ‘But it’s true,’ she said.”

“There’s still plenty of housing inventory to work off, interest rates are down, pricing is at ‘rock bottom,’ and consumer’s aren’t yet confident they should buy, despite the fact it’s ‘an unbelievably good time’ to purchase a home, said Pulte Homes CEO Richard Dugas.”

“‘They’re not making anymore land last time I checked,’ Dugas said.”

“Builders say some of the extravagances and sameness that marked the first generations of McMansions are going by the wayside. ‘People think: ‘We’ve got 28 rooms in our house, what do we need with that?,’ said Scott Van Duzor of Van Duzor Construction. ‘You’ve got these subdivisions full of these monsters. There were so many cookie-cutter $2 million houses, it was just goofy. The last few buyers would rather play it down than play it up. They’re almost embarrassed by those words ‘McMansion.’”

“Britain needs to end its ‘national obsession’ with property, Liberal Democrat treasury spokesman Vince Cable said. He attacked the culture of ‘binge lending’ secured on vastly inflated property prices by financial institutions. Mr Cable, who was given a standing ovation by delegates, said there was a new ‘mood of austerity’ in the country after the excesses of New Labour.”

“He said: ‘Our Government didn’t cause this crisis. Its biggest folly was hubris: the delusional claim to have abolished the boom and bust cycles to which all capitalist economies are prone. They forgot that financial success breeds excess; unearned rewards feed greed; and overconfidence leads to folly.’”

“‘New Labour incubated a culture of financial gambling with other people’s money which has contributed to the collapse of trust in financial institutions. It also bred a dangerous dependence on debt.’”

“Few people feel like splurging in the City, as London’s financial district is known. ‘The City is run by two huge emotions: greed and fear,” said Geraint Anderson, a former banking analyst who chronicled a lifestyle of decadent excess in ‘Cityboy: Beer and Loathing in the Square Mile.’ ‘People think the party is over,’ he said.”

“‘People are fearing for their jobs,’ said John Allsopp, who works in IT for an American investment bank. ‘And you just wonder how it got here.’”

“The 300-year-old Bank of Scotland, which merged with mortgage lender Halifax in 2001 to become HBOS and will now see its name disappear as it is absorbed by Lloyds TSB.”

“‘This time last year, people were spending a lot of money,’ said Luis Rosete, manager of The Pen Shop in the heart of the City. ‘We have pens for 1,000 pounds ($1800) - and people were buying them. Now, there are lots of people coming in, but it’s mostly just browsing.’”

“Andy Paine, one of Indianapolis’ top bankers until he retired a decade ago, traces the financial train wreck unfolding across the country to a perception hatched in the 1990s that home ownership was a right, not a privilege.”

“The financial system won’t recover until that notion is reversed, Paine says. ‘We’re going to have to get back to some sanity and recognize that housing is not a right,’ Paine said.”

“In Midland and Odessa, affordable housing is basically defined as below $80,000. But in this housing market, it’s hard to find a home listed anywhere near that price. Scott Payne builds ‘work force’ housing in Midland. Payne says, ‘You’ll find there are not a whole lot of builders out there willing to build less than $150,000 because it is so hard to make money.’”

“His latest project in Midland (is) primarily 3-bedroom 2-bath houses with about 1,300 square feet. They sell for between $118,000 and $135,000. Payne says, ‘That was 46 houses, eight months before we were finished building them, they were sold.’”

“Tena Waggoner says, ‘Midland and Odessa just finally caught up with a lot of other areas in their price range of homes.’”

“Tena Waggoner should know. She has more than 28-years of experience as a mortgage banker. While some people are still waiting for the next economic ‘bust’ to bring housing prices down, Waggoner has a different theory.”

“Waggoner says, ‘The first time home buyer is moving out of the apartment and buying a first home…those people are moving up and those people are moving up and empty nesters are moving back down.”

“And that creates a cycle of stability. Combine it with supply and demand. Waggoner says, ‘I just don’t see our prices going back down.’”

“But rest assured, the American dream is not lost, it’s really just a ‘mind-set’ away.”

“We are now learning about complex financial instruments, as they are called, that created a vast empire of paper wealth that is now burning up. Wall Street devised ways to exploit an ordinary human need - housing.”

“In past eras, American financiers and government have directed the nation’s wealth toward the development of railroads, highways, universities and other infrastructure that would enable the nation to develop in ways that would enrich all of us.”

“If the system were not designed to encourage that giant pyramid of paper wealth, American companies could have been investing in American factories, providing better paying jobs to American workers. The government could have been enforcing laws to protect workers’ rights and investing in education and infrastructure that would enrich rather than impoverish the nation.”

“Now the paper castle is tumbling down. When it comes time to rebuild, let’s hope our leaders understand the need to foster prosperity based on real production by working people, not financial instruments built on nothing.”

Leesburg Today reports from Virginia. “Long lines. Price wars. The decision became easy. She and her fiance finally bought the one townhouse they won on price. Fueled by a lot of emotion, the couple wanted what many others continue to seek today, a place to call home after their wedding. It didn’t turn out to be the fairytale they imagined. Three years later, the couple found themselves just last month, keys in hand, back at the bank which was foreclosing on their more than $450,000 mortgage.”

“The payments no longer made sense as the home’s value had dropped to about $350,000, less than the value of the loan. There’s a similar story behind many home foreclosures in Loudoun County.”

“In July, Loudoun County had more foreclosures in one month than ever before. It saw twice as many foreclosures in July-279 total-more than any month last year, according to data collected from Loudoun County Circuit Court Clerk Gary Clemens’ staff.”

“‘Foreclosures mean less revenue for the county and the state,’ Clemens said. ‘It’s a huge impact on revenue. Couple the foreclosures with high gas prices and you have a double whammy. It’s an issue this board of supervisors will have to face. The biggest question is how many more foreclosures are in the pipeline. I don’t think anyone knows.’”

“Realtors take a slightly different view, pointing out that June served as the second consecutive month in which sales reached more than 500, a number not seen in Loudoun County since 2006.”

“‘[It's the] highest level of sales in five months, and primarily it’s due to buyers coming back into the marketplace because there are high levels of foreclosures on the market for good value,’ Sue Smith, (an) associate broker with territories in Loudoun, Fairfax and Arlington counties, said.”

“The surge could also be attributed to availability of loan programs for first-time buyers, which will end Oct. 1, Smith said. ‘That has brought a sense of urgency,’ Smith said. ‘There are a lot of buyers that have been on the fence waiting to buy but couldn’t afford it. Now they see it’s a good time. I agree now is a good time.’”

“She’s seen an increase of cash payments for properties and investors taking out lines of credit with the intention to buy foreclosure properties and rent them for long-term hold. ‘The longer you hold on to it, it goes up over time,’ she said. ‘We are still 13.1 percent below our prices from a year ago.’”

The Associated Press on Virginia. “Leroy Hernandez, who lives outside of Richmond, Va., said he has been unable to get help with his $235,000 loan and is two months behind on the subprime mortgage he took out two years ago. Hernandez used to own three houses — two of which he purchased as investment properties, but turned one back over to the lender, sold another and faces foreclosure on the property where he lives.”

“Hernandez said he’s contacted several banks seeking to refinance his current loan, but they refused to consider his application. ‘I’m just so discouraged,’ he said.”

The News Herald from Delaware. “Foreclosures and delinquencies in Delaware are growing — the state saw its percentage of loans 30 days past due hit 4 percent in August, nearly a full point above the United States average and the ninth-highest rate in the country.”

“Once upon a time, in that bygone era when housing prices always rose and equity never vanished, the gentle gyrations of mortgage rates seemed like a soothing dance to watch. Today that dance has turned into a more dangerous — and unpredictable — game, with high stakes for people staring at the prospect of a reset on an adjustable-rate loan.”

“In the heyday of subprime, ‘there was the anecdote, ‘If you have a pulse, you could get a mortgage,’ said Bob Weir, executive VP of the New Castle County Board of Realtors. ‘Yes, it’s gotten tighter, absolutely. Subprime mortgages are no more. They’ve gone away.’”

“The money is still out there, lenders say, but credit scores have regained critical importance. ‘Back in the day — and by ‘back in the day,’ I mean a year and a half ago — you could get a premium interest rate with a 630 FICA score just like a guy with a 720 FICA scorer said Mario Glover Jr., Christiana branch manager for Synergy Direct Mortgage. Now, only the 720 customer has a chance. ‘What was good credit a year ago is just decent credit today,’ he said.”

“Insiders realize that no matter how far mortgage rates fall, there will always be people waiting for them to fall just a hair more. ‘Some people like to gamble,’ Glover said. ‘There’s Vegas for a reason.’”

From WHP CBS in Pennsylvania. “A group of angry homeowners decided to serve their own papers on the Central PA Bankers Association Thursday as a sign of protest against what they feel are unfair foreclosure laws.”

“One of those homeowners is Linda Pavlick, from Allegheny County. She says any day now she’s expecting the sheriff to put her house up for sale and force her out of a home she’s owned for 17 years. She refinanced three years ago with a subprime loan, which at first came with a reasonable a payment of $681 a month. That rate is now up to $1385 a month.”

“In Dauphin County, 877 homes were foreclosed on last year. This year, the number is already up 10 percent. In Cumberland County the numbers are even worse with foreclosures for 2008 already up 17 percent over last year.”

“These homeowners are convinced those numbers would go down, if they could simply sit down and talk with their lenders. Until then, Linda Pavlick says all she can do is pray for the chance to save her home. ‘It’s terror. How do you do it? One day at a time, we pay one bill at a time.’”

The Philadelphia Inquirer from Pennsylvania. “In this real estate climate, selling houses, vacation homes or building lots at auction could be construed as a desperate measure. Instead, developers say, auctions are efficient ways to turn things around quickly when inventory isn’t moving as fast as they’d like.”

“‘Our sales, as you can readily imagine, haven’t been what we expected,’ said Marshal Granor, principal in Granor Price Homes, of Horsham, which hired Sanford Alderfer Auction & Appraisal in Hatfield to handle an offering today of a ‘diverse’ package of seven approved building lots, three twin homes, two condos, a farmhouse and barn, eight ‘to be built’ twins, and a ‘to be built’ single-family house at Smith’s Corners, near Harleysville.”

“‘We decided that an auction would create that same sense of urgency that, in normal times, results in home sales. It’s a different method that we expect will achieve the same results,’ said Granor.”

“In May, Beazer Homes USA Inc. sold 26 of 40 remaining condos at its 60-unit Pointe at Moore’s Inlet in North Wildwood at auction. In June, Westrum Development Co. had similar success with 11 townhouses at its Hilltop at Falls Ridge in the city’s East Falls neighborhood.”

“Before its auction, Westrum had sold 19 of the 30 units at Hilltop at Falls Ridge, but the remaining units - including five luxury townhouses whose price had been dropped from $725,000 to the low $500s - weren’t moving. President John Westrum said he needed to sell the units to ‘pay down debt to build new models,’ but it could have taken till year’s end through the normal means.”

“Beazer waited a week to have all the deals clear and then let the unsuccessful bidders take a crack at the remaining 14 homes. ‘”We didn’t know how deep the market was when we started, but we knew we should keep some of the condos on the shelf,’ said Max Spann Sr., president of the Clinton, N.J., auction company that handled the Beazer and Westrum sales. He learned in the days when his family sold prized cattle that ‘with too many cows, you run out of buyers.’”

The News & Observer from North Carolina. “The plight of Triangle home sellers turned gloomier in August. Sales of existing homes in Durham, Orange, Johnston and Wake counties fell 39 percent from the same month a year earlier — the biggest year-over-year decline since the national housing bust first nicked this region a year ago, data from the Triangle MLS show.”

“Meanwhile, fewer buyers roamed the market as the number of homes listed climbed to a four-year high for the month — even as sellers budged on prices more than ever in the past six years.”

“‘The sellers aren’t getting what they want,’ said Ed Willer, a broker in Raleigh. ‘And the buyers — well, the lenders are beating them up. So it’s tough on both sides.’”

“The number of homes on the market swelled 8 percent to 14,041 in August — the most in any August since 2004. At the same time, showings dropped 18 percent from a year ago. And pending sales sank 29 percent to a five-year low of 1,702.”

“Willer, who is listing seven homes, hasn’t had a showing in a week. Two years ago, he estimates, he would have had at least seven showings. As traffic wanes, sellers are starting to price homes more reasonably — abandoning the ambitious price tags of two years ago.”

“For the first time in at least six years, the prices of more than half of the homes on the market have been reduced at least once. At least 52 percent of the 14,041 homes on the market are price-drop listings, up from 41 percent a year ago.”

The Winston Salem Journal from North Carolina. “Brad Church, the president of Bradford Mortgage Co. in Winston-Salem, said that the local housing market should not feel too much of a hit from the current crisis because local lending adjustments have already been made.”

“‘Many local lenders have been ahead of the curve, tightening lending standards since the first of the year,’ Church said. ‘That has led to a cutting out of some potential homebuyers compared with two years ago.’”

“Julie Poplin, the president of the Winston-Salem Regional Association of Realtors, said that ‘given what’s happened on Wall Street, I would re-emphasize to all that real-estate continues to be one of the best investments you can make. It’s tangible and is capable of providing shelter in the process.’”

The Memphis Daily News from Tennessee. “Deutsche Bank National Trust Co. in August retained its spot as the top seller of homes in Shelby County in terms of dollar amount, marking the seventh month out of eight this year that the New York-based trust company ranked No. 1. The only month Deutsche Bank National Trust hasn’t led the way was June, when it slipped to second place behind U.S. Bank NA.”

“But Deutsche Bank National Trust in July reclaimed first place and then in August held that slot by selling 66 homes at an average sales price of $53,472. It edged U.S. Bank, which sold 56 homes at an average of $55,414.”

“At the same time, sagging consumer confidence has sent new home sales reeling, adding to the disparity between trustee and homebuilder sales. Charles Morgan of Vintage Homes LLC was the top builder for this report. As he noted, the sheer volume of homes being sold on the courthouse steps is creating additional cause for concern in the industry.”

“‘Homebuilders cannot match foreclosure prices,’ Morgan said. ‘One of the reasons Vintage is so successful is we are matching or beating the foreclosure prices. There’s a lot for a builder to do to compete against foreclosures, but most builders don’t want to do that.’”

“‘This is the time to buy,’ said noted Rob Stone of Real Estate Professionals LLC. ‘We’re coming in after a decade at least of tremendous appreciation. All of a sudden, the days of when you could buy and expect appreciation to continue are gone. On the flip side of that, we all believe it will come back - it’s just a matter of when.’”

“But even Stone agreed that it might take awhile for homebuilders to reclaim their place as the county’s top sellers. ‘I think it’s going to continue for the next 18 to 24 months,’ he said.”

The Memphis Commercial Appeal from Tennessee. “Arlington’s growth rate has steadily fallen as the economy has tightened. Now, a key measure of growth is virtually frozen. Last month, town officials issued just one residential building permit, compared with nine in August 2007. Arlington issued 225 new home construction permits in 2007, a 54.8 percent drop from 2006 when 498 were issued. This year Arlington has issued 93 permits.”

“The dramatic drop in applications, say home builders, is the result of economic woes. The drop also reflects a large number of new homes sitting in their inventory.”

“The latest census figures reflect an Arlington population of 9,707, but Mayor Russell Wiseman estimates it is closer to 11,000 now. One day the town projects to have 57,000 people. That’s a figure Wiseman agrees will be a long time coming if these latest trends continues.”

“‘This drop is obviously out of our control, but it has taken some things we were planning off the table,’ Wiseman said.”

“In Bartlett, officials issued eight permits in August, double the four in July. Jay Rainey, the suburb’s chief administrative officer, said the city would normally issue 25 to 30 each month.”

“‘We’ve got 1,500 lots out there ready to build on, so the residential development has absolutely stopped,’ Rainey said.

“‘There isn’t anything you can do about it,’ he said, adding: ‘I thought it was going to be bad, but I didn’t know it was going to be this bad for this long.’”

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