The Housing Bubble

The Press Enterprise reports from California. “Foreclosures could continue to depress the Inland economy for years because of mortgages popularized during the housing boom that are starting to haunt homeowners. Already these mortgages, called option ARMS, are showing high default rates. When Sheri Osorio decided to refinance her Corona home two years ago, she chose an option ARM. She did not expect to be required to make a fully amortized payment every month until 2012, when her loan was scheduled to recast.”

“Osorio, an escrow officer who depends on commissions, grabbed the chance to lower her house payment occasionally without undermining her credit, even though she understood that it was too little to cover the actual monthly adjusting interest on her loan and would take bites out of her equity.”

“Then the housing market tanked and Osorio’s income shrunk in half. So the divorced mother of four routinely chose the minimum payment, with the result that in two years her mortgage increased from $350,000 to $365,000, while her home value shrunk from $630,000 to $330,000.”

“Osorio’s loan papers stated that this payment adjustment would occur early if her mortgage increased to 110 percent of the original loan amount. But she said she never realized a loan balance could grow so fast. ‘I thought it would be years down the road. Not two years into the loan,’ she said.”

“Of the nearly $253 billion in option ARMS tracked by LoanPerformance, California has more than half, with $142 billion. LoanPerformance watches the option ARMS that have been resold to large investors as securities, or about 60 percent of the total.”

“Riverside and San Bernardino counties, with almost $16 billion in securitized option ARMS, has the third largest volume of 360 major metropolitan areas in the U.S., trailing only Los Angeles/Long Beach and San Francisco, according to LoanPerformance. There are nearly 40,000 securitized option ARMS scheduled to recast in Riverside and San Bernardino counties by October 2012, with activity peaking in August 2011.”

“Osorio said she planned to ask GMAC for a loan modification. But with grocery and gas prices high and her industry in deep recession, she faces an ongoing struggle. She said she does not know what she can do to avoid foreclosure when her mortgage recasts in 2012.”

“Osorio also hopes the federal government’s mortgage industry bailout plan will assist people like her, she added. ‘I keep telling myself you are holding yourself above water. Just keep holding on,’ she said.”

The Daily Bulletin. “Like dominoes, a slew of major institutions have fallen and fallen hard as the ripple effects of mortgage loan defaults, home foreclosures and tightened credit standards continue to work their way through the U.S. financial system. These events bear sobering testimony to just how broad and deep the nation’s economic crisis has become.”

“‘I don’t think anyone would have been willing to predict it,’ said Sven W. Arndt, a professor of economics at Claremont McKenna College.”

“The lucrative subprime market fueled unbridled lending by over-eager mortgage lenders. As a result, loans were often given to people who couldn’t provide a down payment. And they they were offered 100 percent financing, according to Norman Cox, a regional VP with Coldwell Banker Town & Country in Covina and Claremont. ‘They were basically given to anyone who could fog a mirror,’ Cox said.”

“The unstable housing market, combined with the meltdown of banks, has thrown a wrench into the progress of a much-awaited mixed-use development downtown. Plans called for the design phase of The Artisan, a development of Watt Communities with more than 200 housing units, to begin in 2009, said Raymond Fong, deputy executive director of the city Redevelopment Agency.”

“But ‘they are not going to be starting soon,’ Fong said. The development firm recently completed a market study that ‘didn’t show a market now for condominium sales,’ he said.”

“Home sale prices are where they were in the first and second quarter of 2004, the period before prices exploded with the help of speculators, said Redlands-based economist John Husing. Those prices are at such a level that about 50 percent of buyers can actually afford to purchase about half of the homes available, he said.”

“‘The question is can a developer build at the early 2004 prices. The answer is probably no,’ Husing said.”

From KTLA. “More than 100, once-pricey pieces of southland real estate were gone… sold at auction this weekend in Ontario. Many properties sold for up to half off their peak prices.”

“‘We’ve been really looking for a place for the last 7 years and we just couldn’t afford anything until now. We got a three bedroom, two and a half bath, single family residence in Chula Vista,’ said Genevieve Peters. She and her husband Serge Laifer scored a real deal… They paid 186-thousand dollars, down from nearly 325-thousand.”

”’These auctions help clear the market and we’re not going to have a recovery until the market’s clear of this excess inventory,’ said Michael Davin, President of Zetabid Brokerage Services.”

The Glendale News Press. “In Glendale, the average price for a single-family home fell about 11% in August to $614,500. The average price for a home in La Crescenta dropped 14.1% to $599,000, according to local Realtors and DataQuick.”

“‘That’s a good thing because it gets more affordable for young people . . . who want to live in Glendale,’ said Eduardo Martinez, an economist with the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp.”

“New home purchases for July fell by 6.2%, the first such decrease in six months, according to First American CoreLogic. ‘With property values going down across the board, people have less home equity built up so that reduces the amount of buyers you’re going to have in the local races, like Glendale, even further,’ Martinez said. ‘For the local level, you’ve got a lot of people sitting on the sideline just waiting to see when the housing situation is going to bottom out . . . which causes values to go down.’”

The Union Tribune. “Relations between lenders and builders have become increasingly strained in recent months. Disturbing to builders is the fact that some banks are enforcing personal guarantees that make them personally liable for repaying the debt.”

“‘I think it is really hard for (builders) to try to fight back and sue banks for pulling financing,’ said Ivy Zellman, a real estate market researcher. ‘The reality is the love affair is over. The banks have to do what they have to do. They have capital requirements and regulatory pressure.’”

The Desert Sun. “Fred Bell, executive officer of the Building Industry Association, Desert Chapter, said the Construction Industry Research Board has reported that new construction starts are off by 90 percent since the peak of market activity in the third quarter of 2004.”

“Anecdotally, Bell said he’s heard that even after the standing stock of about 1,000 new homes are sold, there may not be anything built behind it until the sales of foreclosed homes wind down.”

“Bill Powers, Pacific Western Bank CEO, has for years warned consumers and business leaders in the Coachella Valley of sub-prime and exotic mortgage lending consequences. ‘There are too many shoes to drop, and they’re still dropping.’ Powers said.”

The Sacramento Bee. “Rocklin-based Five Star Bank, which specializes in small business and commercial real estate lending, is charging higher interest and demanding better credit and bigger down payments, said President James Beckwith. A key reason: It’s harder in a down market to judge the value of a borrower’s collateral.”

“‘There’s a degree of uncertainty,’ he said.”

“Michael McGee, owner of Winchester McGee Real Estate & Loans in Rancho Cordova, said he’s having severe problems obtaining financing for homebuyers who can’t make down payments of at least 10 percent. Loan guarantee programs such as the Federal Housing Administration’s are helpful but only go so far, he said. He’s troubled that down payment assistance programs, like the one pioneered by Sacramento’s Nehemiah Corp. of America, are set to expire Wednesday by federal law.”

The Press Democrat. “The FHA said it has become concerned some borrowers were providing misleading financial information about those sales with the intention to ‘buy and bail.’ In response, the FHA stopped allowing prospective buyers to use the proposed rental income from the soon-to-be-vacated house unless: The buyer is being transferred by a current employer or is relocating with a new employer, or if the buyer has a loan-to-value ratio of 75 percent or less.”

“‘Buy and bail’ is when a homeowner purchases a more affordable home than the one they live in with the intention of defaulting on the first home. ‘They should have closed this loophole two quarters ago,’ Realtor Timothy Brown in Santa Rosa said. ‘With all of the other lending issues, the market tightened up before the government stepped in. This is the one place where they could have prevented additional foreclosures, but they are just getting around to it now,’ Mr. Brown said.”

“After months of struggling to keep his doors open and his business going, Ed Ratliff of Investors Trust Mortgage is taking a break. Losing tens of thousands of dollars a month for the past several months, Mr. Ratliff said he couldn’t go on in the current market and expect to survive.”

“‘I’m not doing any more business,’ Mr. Ratliff said. ‘I am doing fine, but if I stayed in business I wouldn’t be. I think that it will be at least two years before the market comes back.’”

“Several people from other mortgage lending companies that closed their doors ended up working for Investors Trust. Mr. Ratliff had to tell them he too was shutting down operations. ‘I found out why they closed their doors,’ he said. ‘Nobody is making any money right now.’”

The Santa Cruz Sentinel. “Yolanda Navarro hates checking the mailbox. She and her husband Lauro don’t know when they’ll get a foreclosure notice, but they know it’s coming. Their dream home — a five-bedroom house Lauro spent two years building after his regular workday and on weekends — has turned into a nightmare.”

“The house on rural Lewis Road was Lauro’s dream. A construction worker, he had the skills to build his own home. He only needed the money. But to secure a construction loan, a contractor was required to supervise the project so the couple hired the father of the mortgage broker and gave him control of the money. Disputes arose. Materials ran short. Lauro couldn’t get the cash to pay the workers he hired.”

“With the house three-quarters done, the couple had to take out a second loan, and borrow against a house on Second Street in Watsonville that Yolanda had inherited from her mother.”

“He finished the home in July 2007, but four months later, the bank still had not converted the 10 percent, interest-only construction loan to the cheaper mortgage the Navarros said they were promised.”

“Adding to their difficulties, Lauro was laid off as construction slowed. Yolanda developed a repetitive stress injury and had to leave her job at a Watsonville food processor. The couple lost the Second Street home to foreclosure.”

“The Navarros estimate their monthly mortgage payment on the Lewis Road house would be about $3,500, an amount they could cover with the help of their grown children. The construction loans, however, cost $5,000 a month. Facing loss of the house, the couple decided to stop making payments. Today, they owe $750,000 on a house that was recently appraised for $575,000, and since neither is working, they have little hope of securing a mortgage.”

“But the Navarros have been through hard times before. When Green Giant shuttered its Watsonville plant in the early 1990s, they both lost jobs. They went on to help organize a workers’ group that did everything from picketing local Green Giant subsidiaries to establishing a food pantry.”

“The Navarros envision something similar growing out of their current effort. At the very least, troubled homeowners can pool their knowledge and avoid mistakes, they said. ‘Our hope is to encourage people to be more active,’ Yolanda said. ‘We need to push this big wheel together.’”

The Pittsburg Post Gazette reports from Pennsylvania. “Howard Hanna III has never seen a real estate market like this — and he has been keeping an eye on real estate for the past 40 years. Falling interest rates and generally low unemployment typically prompt home owners to expand their homes or trade up. But Mr. Hanna, the CEO of Howard Hanna Real Estate, said things are different this time. ‘I’ve never seen so many houses for sale.’”

The Morning Call from Pennsylvania. “At first glance, The Hills at Lockridge development in Lower Macungie Township seems a snapshot of the American Dream. But anxiety lurks behind the panel doors with polished brass knobs. ‘For sale’ signs are prominent.”

“Grass is knee-high in front of some vacant houses lingering on the market, including one with a sheriff’s sale notice taped to a window. Worst of all, many of the residents bought the homes new and paid premium prices in 2005 and 2006 when real estate was peaking. ‘You wake up one morning and think ‘Oh Lord, look at this mess,’ said Anthonis Lewis, who moved to the neighborhood in 2005. ‘What did I get myself into?”’

“Jon Dech purchased his home three years ago, when buying a home seemed a no-lose proposition. ‘When we put our deposit down in the summer of 2005, they had waiting lists of people picking out the end lots and the cul-de-sacs,’ said Dech, who worked in the mortgage industry for 20 years and recently switched careers because of the turmoil. ‘There was a lot of competition. Now it’s pretty much the opposite.’”

“Craig McBean moved from Queens, N.Y., three years ago, seeking a better neighborhood and schools for his four children. He’s seen some homes empty out and no one move in, and he fears a ghost town could develop if the economy continues to erode. ‘We tried to refinance to get a better rate earlier this year and found out we lost $20,000 to $30,000 on the value of our home,’ McBean said. ‘That was a big surprise.’”

“Loren Keim, president of Century 21 Keim Realtors in Allentown, said new four-bedroom, 21/2-bath houses are available in some Upper Macungie Township subdivisions for just under $300,000, and the builders are offering $25,000 cash back to entice buyers. ‘If you happen to have bought a similar home for $315,000 and you put in $5,000 in upgrades, effectively you’re at a $45,000 disadvantage against that new construction,’ Keim said. ‘It’s going to make it impossible for you to sell.”’

The Times Herald Record from New York. “It may seem a distant memory, but just a few years ago, Orange County was in the throes of a real estate bender, as new homes spread across once-rural landscapes and housing prices shot through the roof. Then the national real estate bubble burst and prices began to drop.”

“Building permits for single-family homes dropped to 861 in 2007, about half the high-water mark reached in 2002. Meanwhile, the number of single-family homes sold through August this year is down nearly 30 percent from the same period a year ago. The median sale price was $300,000, 6.3 percent less than in the first eight months of 2007, according to the Orange County Association of Realtors.”

“Today, with homes sales deep in the doldrums, the question is whether the proposed $700 billion bailout of Wall Street for its subprime loan fiasco will revive that trade, and when it might happen. The answer, from local economists and real estate professionals, is unlikely to trigger the popping of champagne corks.”

“It probably won’t rebound to where it was a few years ago, predicted John Finnigan, a former Morgan Stanley employee who lives in Washingtonville and teaches economics at Marist College. ‘Where the numbers were before was built on a fallacy,’ he said.”

The Boston Herald from Massachusetts. “As chairman of the House Financial Services panel, Rep. Barney Frank has been working frantically to get President Bush’s $700 billion bailout of Wall Street passed - a controversial position that has some critics questioning why the powerful Massachusetts Democrat didn’t do more before the crisis spun out of control.”

“‘You’ve got Barney Frank and George Bush leading the charge,’ said state Sen. Robert Hedlund. ‘Here’s a guy whose presidency has been a debacle, and a guy (Frank) who’s been resisting reforms.’”

“Several media outlets noted that Frank, as a ranking member of the committee he now chairs, told the New York Times in 2003, ‘These two entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not facing any kind of financial crisis. The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing.’”

“But Frank told the Herald yesterday that ‘in 2003, nobody that I knew of foresaw the crisis of subprime lending, and that is what caused this problem.’”

“State Sen. Richard Tisei of Wakefield, who owns a real estate mortgage firm, said there is plenty of blame to go around, but slammed Frank for claiming the crisis came as a surprise. ‘Not only has Frank, but numerous members of Congress have protected Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for a long time,’ Tisei said.”

The Connecticut Post. “Chris Dodd took control of the Senate Banking Committee in January 2007. Dodd pledged to conduct oversight of the agencies that are supposed to ensure that financial institutions and markets operate in a safe, sound, transparent and efficient manner. Although the committee has held more than 55 hearings, nudged the financial industry to clean up its subprime mess and passed laws aimed at containing the crisis, it has fallen short of curbing the problem.”

“Critics have blamed Dodd for aiding and abetting the crisis as chairman of the committee. In particular, they have raised concerns about his ties to the financial services industry as well as his failed bid for the presidency in 2008. Since 1989, Dodd has raised $43 million for his federal campaigns, including $13.2 million from the financial services sector, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.”

“Among his top contributors are executives of Wall Street giants now in trouble: Bear Stearns $351,950; American International Group $281,438; Goldman Sachs $264,116; Morgan Stanley $209,725; JPMorgan Chase $180,173 and Lehman Brothers $160,400, according to the Center. Dodd has also been sharply criticized for receiving special treatment from Countrywide Financial Corp. when he refinanced his mortgages in 2003.”

“Subprime lending in the U.S. rose from $35 billion annually in 1994 to $625 billion in 2005.”

“Nick Perna, an economist with Webster Bank in Connecticut, said that Congress could have pressured the Federal Reserve to increase oversight of exotic securities, reined in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and done more to protect consumers from predatory lending. But, nobody wants to rain on a parade.”

“‘When housing prices are going up 15 percent we all look smart and nobody wants to do anything to upset that,’ he said.”

The Hartford Courant from Connecticut. “It’s known as the low-ball offer. It can be insulting and a waste of time. But — sometimes — it can work. That’s the experience of real estate agent Tom Abbate, the listing agent of a house for sale in Portland, with an asking price of about $245,000. Soon after it was listed, a potential buyer submitted an offer for $190,000.”

“‘We’re talking more than $50,000 below the asking price. It was ridiculous,’ said Abbate. ‘But I tell people never be insulted by a low offer, because it’s more insulting not to get any offer at all. I’d prefer to get a low offer and try to work with it.’”

“‘What I’m seeing, in the $200,000 to $275,000 price range, is people think they can knock off $20,000 to $25,000 right from the start because there’s a surplus of inventory,’ Abbate said. “People hear the bad news about the market and they think they own the world. And in some respects they do, in certain markets.’”

“Charlie Kaylor, broker in Simsbury, said the timing of a low offer is critical, especially if the seller needs to move quickly. ‘If a house is listed for $300,000, you might get an offer for $260,000 or $270,000. That’s possible,’ he said. ‘But some people consider a low-ball offer offering $190,000, and that’s just silly. Their expectations are not reality.’”

“Low-ball offers can work in certain cases if you approach them right, says Jessica Berganski, an agent in Newington. ‘The perception out there is not only that buyers think they can make a low-ball offer, but sellers are pretty much expecting it,’ she said. ‘It definitely can be insulting, but it all depends on how it is presented.’”

“Berganski listed her own home for sale last year, and said she was upset by an offer $40,000 less than the asking price. Not only was the offer low, she said, but the contract was incomplete.”

“‘Having an offer that is not well put together, when all the pieces aren’t in place, my initial reaction is always, is this a serious offer?’ she said. ‘Home sellers are willing to consider an offer no matter what price, as long as it is a serious offer.’”

The New York Times. “Finally, the McMansion may have reached the limits of its popularity in New Jersey, where it has seemed to rule the residential market with unshakable authority for many years. A new brick colonial in North Caldwell has been languishing on the market for 214 days, despite a price reduction of $200,000, to $1.49 million.”

‘In Livingston, a six-bedroom behemoth built in 2000 and outfitted with a chef’s kitchen, family-room fireplace, whirlpool baths, and so on — and so on — has spent 168 days on the market, and is still there after a price cut of $150,000, to $1.649 million. In Llewellyn Park, a gated community in West Orange, a developer’s plan for a sprawling six-bedroom colonial with six peaks and gables across the facade has not garnered a purchaser in 476 days on the market — although the price for the custom-built abode, to be set on five acres, has been reduced to $4.25 million from $4.5 million.”

“‘McMansions?’ said Joanne Harkins of the New Jersey Builders Association. ‘In a nutshell, people aren’t buying them — certainly not the way they did before. And our members are going to have to evaluate whether there is still a market for this type of product.’”

The Star Ledger from New Jersey. “The meltdown on Wall Street continued to hammer world markets last week. For answers, The Star-Ledger surveyed business and economic experts with a range of backgrounds and perspectives.”

“Developer Emanuel Stern President of Hartz Mountain Industries in Secaucus: ‘In 2003, I began using the phrase ‘these are the good old days of real estate finance,’ to describe the low equity requirements and low interest rates available to real estate developers. We saw rates and spreads narrow to the point where real estate was being treated like a government-issued bonds and equity requirements for even speculative deals fell as low as 5 percent. ‘”

“‘The surprise about this crash is how long the unfettered growth and prosperity extended, and the fear is that we will have an equally long and dramatic downturn. Everyone wants to know, ‘When’s the bottom?’ I think a better question is ‘What’s different about this time?’”

“Most important is that an era of easy capital/credit and leverage is over. The unwinding of that leverage and associated economic pain is not over and will continue for some time to come.”

“Realtor Roy Scott, Owner of Re/Max Village Square Realty, with offices in Upper Montclair, Short Hills, Livingston, South Orange and Maplewood: ‘Unfortunately, the brokers were like fawns because the mortgage industry made it far too simple for too long for people to get mortgages. I would guess 20 percent to 30 percent of buyers should never have qualified and should have not gotten mortgages.’”

“‘As a result, we’re suffering for that, the entire real estate industry. Hopefully, Congress will put some new regulations in place. I knew sooner or later the system was going to break.’”

“‘People were doing some ridiculous things with mortgages. I never pushed a buyer to go beyond their means, but many people did. They got excited and just reached too far. I’ve seen people buy for $300,000 to $400,000 beyond the asking price. People just went crazy because dollars were so cheap and easy to get. They just didn’t care.’”

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