The Housing Bubble

The San Francisco Chronicle reports from California. “With lenders reeling from the housing collapse and loan losses mounting, the crunch is intensifying, economists say. That foreshadows a long and difficult stretch for households and businesses, as loan markets struggle to regain footing. ‘Credit is just plain hard to get. There’s not much availability, and it comes at a very high price,’ said Jim Wilcox, an economist at the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley.”

“Nancy Levine, an executive recruiter from North Berkeley, had her home equity credit line cut back from $100,000 to the low $80,000 range a few months ago. She owes about $220,000 on her two-bedroom, one-bath house and thought she had a big equity cushion.”

“‘It feels like a real loss of wealth,’ she said. ‘You read about things like this, but never think it can happen to you.’”

“Redwood Credit Union, based in Santa Rosa, has always been a conservative lender and has not changed its standards, according to Chief Operating Officer Anne Benjamin. But tough times mean some formerly creditworthy customers no longer qualify for loans, perhaps because the equity in their homes or the value of their investments has dropped.”

“‘A lot of people in our community have been affected by the downturn,’ Benjamin said. ‘These situations do affect their ability to repay a loan.’”

The Mountain News. “The plummeting real estate market that has rocked California and rolled through the rest of the nation has not left Lake Arrowhead unscathed. The number of escrows closed in 2007 dropped 52 percent in Arrowhead Villas compared with 2006, with one-year drops of 48 percent in Cedar Glen, 47 percent in Arrowbear, 44 percent in Twin Peaks and Blue Jay, 37 percent in Green Valley Lake and 19 percent in Arrowhead Woods.”

“A comparison of houses-for-rent classified ads in the Aug. 14, 2008 issue of The Mountain News with similar ads one year earlier shows 89 houses on the rental market this year and only 65 the year before, an increase of 26 percent.”

“‘A lot of houses became rentals when their owners realized they weren’t selling,’ said Sue-Ellen Knapp of Re/Max Lake Arrowhead Realty. And because of the flood of houses for rent, renters can get more for their money.”

“‘What used to go for $1,500 now goes for about $1,200,’ Knapp said. Knapp said…that $1,200 a month might translate into a three-bedroom, two-bath home in Lake Arrowhead, while $1,500 could rent a similar home with a garage. The latter property, she said, would have rented for $1,900 before the economy’s downturn.”

“Rolf Garthofner, who has owned Lake Arrowhead Village-based Arrowhead Property Rental for 30 years, said that whereas his company normally carries an inventory of ‘eight to 10 houses for rent, over the last year (since the Grass Valley Fire) we’ve had an average of 20 to 40.’”

“Brand-new homes that would normally sell in the $500,000 range but have no buyers are renting for $1,800 to $2,000 a month, Garthofner said. Whereas the rule of thumb in the industry several years ago was that rents would be 1 percent of a home’s market value, Garthofner said the ratio has now fallen to less than one-half a percent, meaning a $400,000 home can now be rented for less than $2,000 a month.”

“With only an estimated 250 Arrowhead Woods sales predicted for this year, Bob Bailey, a real-estate veteran who has been analyzing Lake Arrowhead real-estate trends for 19 years. notes in his publication the current inventory of 490 homes on the market ‘is nearly a two-year supply,’ adding that ‘more listings will encourage price cutting as the public and market is tuned to the drum beat of nationwide falling prices.’”

“Just as a glut can drive rental prices downward, ‘more listings could sink this struggling (for sale) market,’ Bailey’s mid-year review cautions.”

“‘There are some good bargains out there now,’ said Clark Hahne, managing broker of Lake Arrowhead Re/Max Realty, referring to homes available via trustee sales. ‘There are probably 50 houses in Arrowhead Woods under $300,000. Let’s face it; it’s tough times now.’”

“Hahne said that ‘for practically every trustee sale the deed was recorded in 2006 or 2007. They bought at the top of the market or refinanced or had a small downpayment.’”

“He cited one Lake Arrowhead house, refinanced four times in 10 years, that had $419,000 worth of mortgages and eventually listed, because of the declining market, at $339,000. Another, a bank repossession, he said, sold in September 2005 for $775,000, with a $620,000 loan, yet was listed not long ago at $399,000, and has a $350,000 offer pending.”

“Another real estate industry observer, who asked not to be named, said ‘now is the best time to buy real estate on this mountain. I haven’t seen prices this low or discounted in years. If I had a lot of money I’d buy as many houses as I could and put renters in them. In the next three years if it (the investment) doesn’t double, I’d at least make a handsome profit.’”

The Bakersfield Californian. “Bakersfield operations of two national title and escrow companies are consolidating this month. Chicago Title Insurance Co. will absorb the staff of Fidelity National Title Insurance Co. around Sept. 22, said Eric Klein, Kern County manager for Chicago Title.”

“Both offices have already pared down as Kern’s market has drastically slowed over the past year or so. ‘We both really had to ratchet down the number of people on staff,’ Klein said.”

“He also said it’s a great time to buy a house since prices have declined so much in Kern. ‘We’re certainly closer to the end of this thing than the beginning,’ Klein said of the housing slump. ‘There’s never been a better time to buy.’”

“More financial and legal troubles have hit the master developer of northeast Bakersfield’s City in the Hills community, Los Angeles-based Mountain View Bravo LLC, records show. The developer, through several subsidiaries, has already defaulted on four loans borrowed against Kern County properties since July.”

“A lawsuit has been filed by a company that bought one of the developer’s now-defaulted loans. That company, Global Investment & Development LLC of Los Angeles, in June took over from Indymac Bank what remained of a $49.5 million construction loan for the Juliana’s Garden neighborhood in City in the Hills. The loan defaulted in July.”

“Separately, Global Investment in July bought 20 acres slated for 84 homes near Highway 178 and Comanche Drive at a fire-sale price from national homebuilder KB Home.”

The Modesto Bee. “Boarded-up windows, dead lawns, yellow auction signs and abandoned houses gave silent testimony Saturday to the brutal impact the foreclosure crisis is having on central Stockton. As a tour bus filled with lawmakers and their staff members cruised the distressed neighborhoods, the message was clear: The Northern San Joaquin Valley is hurting.”

“Changes in federal law will make it harder for first-time buyers to purchase those homes, according to Modesto mortgage broker Patty Amador.”

“‘My message is that we cannot bring this market back by shutting buyers out by limiting their options,’ she said. ‘Eliminating down payment assistance programs, increasing down payment and closing cost requirements, and increasing monthly payments through increased mortgage insurance premiums will once again make homeownership unaffordable.’”

“Amador and other speakers advocated preserving the American dream of homeownership, but Rep. Barney Frank challenged that concept.”

“‘The American dream should be for a decent place to live, and that could be in rental housing,’ Frank insisted. ‘One of the mistakes we made was to encourage people to buy homes who should not have bought. … We have not done enough for rental housing.’”

“All types of housing are suffering in Merced, according to statistics Mayor Merced Mayor Ellie Wooten offered. In 2006, near the height of the region’s building boom, Wooten said an estimated ‘80 percent of home purchases in Merced were being made by speculators, many attracted by the opening of the UC Merced campus.’”

“She noted how home values have plummeted, one in 12 Merced County landowners hasn’t paid their property taxes, businesses have closed and unemployment has soared.’”

“‘We have no reason to believe the situation will be improving any time soon,’ she said.”

From CNBC. “Foreclosures are up 300 percent from a year ago in Stockton’s San Joaquin County, and prices have fallen nearly in half, to a median of $215,000. Go to RealtyTrac and you’ll find more than 11,000 homes for sale here listed as either bank owned, auctions, or in preforeclosure. Only 52 houses are on the market as just regular old resales. That’s not even one percent.”

“No one seems to think we’re through the worst of it. ‘If we have the bulk of defaults in the pipeline now, we could wash it out within 12 months,’ realtor Kevin Moran told me. When I asked if he thinks the ‘bulk of defaults’ is in the pipeline, he answers, ‘No.’”

“Inside one foreclosed home we found all the walls stripped bare, all the outlets torn out, as thieves stole every inch of copper wiring. ‘At one time there was $295,000 owed against this property,’ Moran says. Now he has it listed for $71,000, but given the new damage, ‘I think a more conservative investor will offer (the bank) $25,000 all cash.’”

“‘Business is tough,’ says Joe Anfuso, CEO of local home builder Florsheim Homes. He’s cut his staff by two thirds and is selling his remaining inventory at a loss just to get rid of it. Buyers ‘only care about what the price per square foot is,’ and he can’t compete with the foreclosures.”

“Some here believe that banks have actually been putting off many foreclosures because they just don’t have the manpower to go after everyone who’s late on a mortgage. That could mean wave after wave of homes flooding the market for months (or years?) to come.”

“Realtor Kevin Moran is hanging on, hoping to ride it out. You could say Moran himself personifies all that’s happened in Stockton. Since we first met a year ago, his income has collapsed, and his own home went into foreclosure. Like a lot of other people around here, he’s trying to regroup.”

“‘My ego wants to say it happened to everybody,’ he says. ‘And then my other side wants to say how foolish I was, and I think the truth is somewhere in between the two.’”

The Beacon Journal reports from Ohio. “Richard Stevens doesn’t buy it. His two-story, brick house had been appraised at $363,150. Then, the letter came in the mail this week from Summit County notifying him of the new value: $557,820. ‘I was absolutely shocked. I couldn’t believe it,’ Stevens said. ‘I do not believe that I could get $558,000 for the house. I don’t think that’s possible, especially when the sales prices for homes are decreasing and there’s a huge surplus of homes on the market.’”

“In general, homeowners would prefer high appraisals and low tax bills. ‘When you sell, it’s a castle,’ said Shelley Davis, chief of staff for the fiscal office. ‘When you’re taxed on it, it’s a dump.’”

The Enquirer from Michigan. “Even though their Battle Creek house has been on the market for a year, Gerry and Cindy Mann are feeling generous. They want you to buy a $169,000 dollhouse replica of their four-bedroom, two-bathroom home. And to sweeten the deal, they’ll throw in the real house for free.”

“The number of area home sales are at their lowest level since the recession of 1990-91, according to the Michigan Association of Realtors. Foreclosures also have driven the average sale price of a Battle Creek area home down by more than 14 percent in the first half of 2008. This is the largest decline in 20 years of available data, and has sent the average home price down to a level seen almost eight years ago.”

“‘The Realtors do the normal thing; they put us in the book, they have an open house,’ Gerry Mann said. ‘So after a year I was thinking, I don’t know, I have this dollhouse sitting in my basement, let me see if I can do some creative marketing.’”

“‘We’re anxious to move on with our lives, as I think many people that are in this situation,’ Cindy Mann said. ‘We need to think outside the box and look at other ways to attract buyers. We’ve had a lot of interest in the house, but everybody here has homes to sell, too.’”

The Flint Journal from Michigan. “Dianne Martin, a longtime north Flint real estate agent, said in the past two years she’s seen a tremendous spike in out-of-state people buying city homes as investment properties because they’re cheap. Then they try, often unsuccessfully, to rent them out, she said.”

“‘Investors from out-of-state can grab up homes for less than $10,000, and I’m seeing that happen a lot,’ Martin said. ‘People are getting a lot more for their dollar than they can get in California, for example.’”

“Ron Gaby became an out-of-town homeowner in Flint when he moved from his Dupont Street home to Clio about five years ago, in part because he could see the neighborhood deteriorating. Gaby said since then, the brick house on Dupont Street has sat mostly vacant, although he tried to rent it out. And vandals and thieves have broken in, he said.”

“‘I’m stuck with the house,’ Gaby said. ‘I can’t sell it and I really don’t know what to do with it.’”

The Daily Herald from Illinois. “This year’s median sale price for existing single-family homes in DuPage County is $329,000, down from an all-time high of $360,000 in 2007, according to a report.”

“Families earning the median income still fall short of having what it takes to afford a home in DuPage, said Sheila McCann, director of outreach and development for the Wheaton-based center.The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development recommends a family not spend more than 30 percent of monthly income on housing. Using that guidelines, a family would need to make $110,920 to be able to afford the average DuPage County home.”

“This year’s median home price is lower, even, than home prices from two years ago. In 2006, the average sales price was $343,500.”

“And even with the obvious housing downturn, McCann said, ‘we’re still in a gap.’ ‘Housing prices might be getting more affordable, but there’s still a big gap between income and what the average family can afford to pay,’ she said.”

The News Democrat from Illinois. “Downtown Belleville, after years of deterioration and the subsequent millions of dollars the city has pumped into improving it, is now like a kid right out of college — polished, ready and ripe for opportunity.”

“Geri and Doug Boyer were the first — and so far only — residents to move into the Writers’ Lofts on East Main Street. Gary Karasek, the architect behind the Writers’ Lofts, said he has only sold two lofts so far, and both were to the Boyers, who plan to turn their studio loft into a bed and breakfast.”

“Karasek blames the shaky housing market, though he said people are still looking at the lofts. He said he has adjusted accordingly by turning the six original lofts into eight; two of them are now 600-square-foot studios. He expects sales to pick up when the market recovers.”

“Randy Shinn he wishes there were more bars and nightclubs. ‘It’s really convenient because you can actually go out and get drunk and walk home,”‘ 27-year-old Shinn said.”

The Times Press from Wisconsin. “Reedsburg agents say the local real estate market is still humming despite sellers having to compete with an increasing number of foreclosed homes. Sauk County has seen a record-high number of foreclosures and according to the Wisconsin Realtors Association, Sauk County’s home sales are down from 352 in the first half of 2007 to 257 in the first half of this year.”

” The median price of homes for sale has declined by about $11,000 from the end of last year. Some realtors are saying these conditions make real estate a buyer’s market, although credit is tightening.

“‘I don’t feel that we’ve been that affected compared to other areas of the country and other areas of the state,’ Liz Kuhart, a real estate agent in Reedsburg, said. ‘It’s definitely slower than it was a few years ago, but it’s a very good time for buyers and I think they’re understanding that. The sellers are in competition with foreclosures.’”

“The foreclosures have struck property in high, mid and low-range prices. ‘Everything from $649,000 to $20,000,’ Kuhart said, adding that foreclosed property is typically priced more aggressively, putting regular sellers at a competitive disadvantage.”

“‘Houses are still selling, but they’re selling more slowly. There’s just so much available,’ Sauk County Development Corporation Executive Director Karna Hanna said.”

“Local realtors said the length of time a home spends on the market depends on its price, and that recent homebuyers that hadn’t built up much equity may have to eat crow if they’re looking to sell their current residence.”

“‘If they bought it in the last year or two, they’re probably at a loss,’ Kuhart said. ‘Most of them are selling them for less than what they bought them for a few years ago. A lot of people who bought a few years ago shouldn’t have bought to begin with.’”

“‘It’s always had peaks and valleys throughout history,’ Kuhart said. ‘It’s a little bit more of a valley compared to a few years ago.’”

The Chetek Alert from Wisconsin. “County Administrator Duane Hebert told county board members that Barron County was the only county out of 72 in the state of Wisconsin to see its equalized valuation decline, and while the decline was only 0.05 percent, it marked a departure from what the county had been seeing for the past 20 years.’

“‘We have seen a period of unprecedented growth in equalized value,’ says Barron County Finance Director Jeff French. ‘When you look at the numbers-the fact that we have grown steadily in value over the past 20 years-it’s pretty remarkable.’”

“‘The housing market has obviously been the major factor pushing that equalized value higher,’ says French. ‘Barron County has been a hot spot for buying property-especially lake property-since the mid-’80s. Now we’re seeing some of that enthusiasm cool because prices got too high.’”

“French admits real estate speculation may be at the heart of the decrease. He points to the fact that many of the areas that have long been home to the ‘hotter properties’ in the county have seen the largest decreases in equalized value. The Town of Almena decreased 4.73 percent, the Town of Rice Lake declined 5.59 percent, along with Chetek’s drop of 4.02 percent.”‘

“Now that the market has softened, those prices have had to come down, and valuation goes with that,’ says French.”

“French explains that the City of Chetek has likely been impacted due to the number of unsold residential properties sitting on the market. ‘The bubble had to burst at some point,’ says French. ‘Hopefully, it will be more of a slow leak than a quick pop.’”

“‘In the late 1990s and early 2000s, when we had double-digit increases in the operating levy, the mill rate stayed constant because the valuation was growing at the same pace,’ Hebert explains.”

The South Washington County Bulletin from Minnesota. “Almost half of the St. Paul Park homes for sale in July were foreclosures or short sales, a recent study shows. According to a Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors study, St. Paul Park ranks third in the Twin Cities for the percentage of homes for sale in July that were lender-mediated.”

“Michael Smith, a Cottage Grove Realtor who specializes in foreclosures, said he doesn’t think there’s anything unique that would have caused more foreclosures in St. Paul Park. Troubled homeowners there just fell into the same predicament that so many others have - they assumed that home values would continue to rise, and ended up with mortgage payments that increased too steeply for their budgets.”

“Banks want to get the most they can out of a house, said Smith, but they’ll steadily drop the price on it until it sells. The effects of a high foreclosure rate might seem obvious, but why the percentage of lender-mediated sales is so much higher in St. Paul Park than in neighboring cities isn’t so clear.”

The Times Republican from Iowa. “Tough economic times, including mortgage troubles, are sending bankruptcy filings up in Iowa. As of last Friday, there were 5,143 bankruptcy filings in Iowa, and experts are blaming a combination of tough economic conditions.”

“Homes sales are down, making it harder for homeowners to get out of mortgages they can no longer afford. Unemployment in July rose to 4.3 percent, the highest in nearly three years.”

“‘We saw an economic boom, manufactured in real estate,’ said Tom Coates, executive director of Consumer Credit in Des Moines. ‘People were able to borrow against their homes.’”

“He said that has been shut off and ‘we’re seeing an increase in debt going on credit cards.’”

“‘When they first get a foreclosure notice, they will tap their savings, use credit cards to get by, and when the bill collectors start to call, they will file for bankruptcy,’ said University of Iowa law professor Katie Porter.”

“Jeff Mathias, a bankruptcy attorney in West Des Moines, said he is seeing more foreclosures. ‘Most are just surrendering their home in the bankruptcy,’ he said.”

The Newton Daily News from Iowa. “According to Board of REALTORS statistics released for July, the average price of homes sold in Newton in the first seven months of 2008 was $101,729, down more than $9,000 (or 8.4 percent) from the average sales price of $111,099 in 2007.”

“However, Board of REALTORS President Julie Rose said the local statistics can be misleading. ‘The statistics are kind of skewed because we’ve had a lot of foreclosures happen recently,’ Rose said. ‘The average price is lower, but you have to remember that the foreclosures sell for less and therefore drag the average price down.’”

“Rose noted many may jump to the conclusion the foreclosures are due to former Maytagers losing their home. She said she wants to put that rumor to an end.”

“‘These foreclosures are, for the most part, not people who worked at Maytag,’ she said. ‘We have all heard about the people that for whatever reason just walked away from their homes, but they were probably in financial ruins before Maytag closed. Most didn’t even try to sell them or try a short sale, which is when the bank agrees to sell a home for less than the mortgage.’”

“Although a foreclosure is never a good thing, Rose said anyone wanting to buy a home can get a good deal in Newton if they look. ‘If people are thinking about buying a foreclosure, do it now,’ she said. ‘You know four years ago we didn’t have a decent $25,000 house on the market. … There are actually some really good buys on homes out there and believe it or not prices will go up, just look at gas prices.’”

“Rose said homeowners looking to sell should remember today’s buyer does not want a home they have to fix up.”

“‘There’s been a turn in times,’ she said. ‘Buyers don’t want to even paint these days. They want move-in ready houses. … Great homes are still selling for good prices. As long as your house is in good condition, updated and decluttered it will sell. I can’t stress this enough.’”

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