The Housing Bubble

The Sacramento Bee reports from California. “CalPERS stands to lose a chunk of its $947 million investment in a Los Angeles land development that’s filed for bankruptcy protection. CalPERS and two partners spent $970 million in January 2007 to buy 68 percent of LandSource Communities Development LLC, a partnership developing Newhall Ranch master-planned community in the Santa Clarita Valley area of northern Los Angeles County. LandSource filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection late Sunday, nearly two months after it defaulted on a $960 million bank loan.”

“Developing raw land can be one of the riskiest of real estate ventures because values can fluctuate dramatically. In its bankruptcy papers, LandSource said the value of its assets fell from $2.6 billion in late 2006 to about $1.8 billion last September. Pat Macht, spokeswoman for the $245.4 billion California Public Employees’ Retirement System, said it wasn’t clear how much CalPERS’ original $947 million investment is worth now.”

“Newhall Ranch is one of the final frontiers of Southern California real estate, a major tract that’s been eyed for development for years. Plans call for 20,000 houses and 5 million square feet of commercial development, according to papers filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Court.”

“‘Longer term, this (development) makes great sense,’ said Jack Kyser, chief economist at the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. ‘But right now, everything in terms of housing mega-development has come to a crashing halt.’”

“Kyser said CalPERS’ involvement was surprising because the pension fund ‘is astute in how they do their valuations.’”

“When CalPERS bought into the project, the housing market already was softening. But Macht said the severity of the downturn took everyone by surprise. ‘No one knew that the credit crunch and the housing crisis would get to what it was,’ she said.”

The Signal. “Newhall Land is not going out of business, despite a petition by its parent company last weekend to file for bankruptcy protection. ‘We’re a 125-year-old company and have been developing land for 40 years, and we will continue with our day-to-day operations,’ Marlee Lauffer, spokeswoman for Newhall Land and Farming Company, told The Signal on Monday.”

“Clark McKinley, spokesman for CalPERS, was asked if CalPERS, with all its money, would consider settling LandSource’s debts since CalPERS has already invested in the company. ‘We’re not a charity,’ said McKinley, adding LandSource chased good projects at a bad time.”

“‘It was good long-term investment but it came at a bad time,’ he said, referring to the recession-like turn in the housing market.”

“Marshall Ames, VP of Lennar Corporation explained the impact of LandSource’s Chapter 11 petition on Lennar. ‘The owners of LandSource had been negotiating for months in an effort to amend debt covenants with its lenders,’ he said. ‘Unfortunately, the parties were unable to agree on restructuring terms that were mutually acceptable.’”

“In an e-mail sent by Ames to The Signal, he explained: ‘Because LandSource is a completely stand-alone entity, yesterday’s court filing covers only this specific joint venture. Lennar and the other owners are not responsible for, nor a guarantor of, any of LandSource’s debt.’”

The Whittier Daily News. ” Things have been busy for Jon Halili. Last week, as the San Gabriel Valley Mosquito and Vector Control technician sprayed down a brownish-green backyard pool at a foreclosed home on Florence Avenue in West Covina, he scooped up and pointed out small, worm-like mosquito larvae.”

“‘Right at this time we’re having to deal with more vacant pools,’ he said. ‘If the pool is vacant and breeding for a couple of months before we find out about it, it can be a major problem.’”

“Foreclosures have hit eastern Los Angeles County hard: more than 13,000 homes are either in default or have been repossessed by banks, according to Realty. The data indicate that from Pasadena to Pomona and south to the Whittier area, nearly five times as many homes are at risk of foreclosure than in 2005, when the housing market was still booming in Los Angeles County.”

“According the Kelly Middleton, public information officer for San Gabriel Valley Mosquito and Vector Control, the percentage of pools posing a public health risk rose to 37 percent of those inspected, up from 36 percent in 2004 and 33 percent from 2005 to 2007. ‘Definitely we’ve seen an increase in the number of pools we’ve had to treat,’ she said. ‘It’s happening up and down the state.’”

The Chico Enterprise Record. “A government agency that tracks the price of housing and has flagged Butte County repeatedly for high appreciation again indicates falling prices in this market. That’s the ‘housing meltdown’ taking its toll, according to Chico Association of Realtors President Debbie Brodie.”

‘Some of those house price declines are still coming from foreclosures and bank sales, although there haven’t been that many in Chico, she noted. Home sellers have had to drop prices in order to get noticed, she said, or have taken their houses off the market to wait for a rising market.”

“Long-time appraiser Tom Fiscus of Chico has confirmed that his business is down. ‘I’ve seen this (slump) three or four times, but never this bad. I’ve seen the requests (for appraisals) dwindle.’”

“He said he’s also seen the disappearance of the one-person mortgage office as big companies cut costs. ‘Big companies send one rep out to a market to open up an office. That’s fine in good times, but in this market it doesn’t work.’”

“Of what he’s seen in the market, ‘Higher-dollar houses are taking a bigger discount, pricewise. Lower-priced homes — those under $300,000 — have dropped too, but there’s more buyers for that range of house.’”

The Press Democrat. “A national housing crisis was hardly evident in Rohnert Park on Sunday as 17 new homes moved off an auction block in just 52 minutes. About 70 bidders who gathered in the Doubletree Hotel ballroom quickly claimed the properties in what was the first bulk auction of new homes in Sonoma County. Sunday’s sales netted $4.5 million for Standard Pacific Homes, which had been struggling with sluggish sales in its Avondale subdivision in southeast Santa Rosa.”

“Minimum bids on the development’s remaining three-bedroom, two-bath homes just south of the fairgrounds started at about $200,000 — half off original asking prices. The majority of homes sold for about $240,000 to $260,000. The highest winning bid was $285,000 for a home original listed at $463,900.”

“Before the bidding started, the auctioneer asked audience members if they had ever been to an auction before. Only a third raised their hands.”

“Gregorio Edmisten of Petaluma sat nervously with his Realtor as he waited for the event to begin. He hoped to buy a new home for his wife. ‘It’s very hard for newlyweds to get their own homes in the lower price range,’ he said.”

“But his hand never made it in the air. The bids climbed so rapidly, he was overwhelmed. He said he didn’t expect prices to jump $20,000 to $25,000 in a blink of an eye. So Edmisten’s three-month housing search continues. ‘It was intimidating, and they went so fast,’ he said.”

The Press Enterprise. “Bargain hunters are fueling a resurgence of home sales in Riverside and San Bernardino counties and reducing the glut of listings, leading some real estate experts to hope the region’s battered housing market might finally be on the road to recovery.”

“The inventory of unsold homes fell 11 percent from March to April, then leveled off in May to about 33,000 active listings in the Inland Empire and San Gabriel Valley, according to the Multi-Regional MLS. Pending sales were up more than 16 percent in May to 4,650 compared to about 4,000 in April.”

“Rich Cosner, president of Prudential California Realty, with five offices in Inland Southern California, said that although his cumulative sales for the first five months of this year are still lower than for the same period a year ago, home buyers seem to be responding to sharply lower prices lenders are asking for homes they have foreclosed on.”

“‘What I am not sure about is if it is a sign of a stabilized market,’ Cosner said, noting that home sales normally improve in the spring.”

“Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, said that organization does not compile a pending sales index for the state.”

“But she said: ‘Certainly, anecdotally we are hearing from our members they have seen a good uptick in sales activity and that it is concentrated in the areas where you see the biggest decline in prices.’ The price declines, in turn, are most pronounced in the areas with the most foreclosures.”

“‘It is too soon to tell if this trend will be consistent throughout the rest of the year. But it is certainly a step in the right direction,’ she said.”

“Igor Dobroff, a 50-year-old truck driver, said he recently entered escrow on a $165,000 house in Colton, after waiting years to find something he could afford. ‘I am sick and tired of renting’ he said. He figures the monthly mortgage payment with insurance and taxes will be only $300 more than he is now paying for a one-bedroom apartment.”

The Modesto Bee . “The signs are painted over. The models are empty. All building has stopped at the three Falling Leaf subdivisions in Modesto’s Village I. With less than half of the planned 314 homes complete, developer William Lyon Homes has quit construction. Empty lots growing weeds remain.”

“When the development opened in spring 2006 in northeast Modesto, it was highly praised for its innovative use of space and alternative housing designs. Its small lots, garages with alley access, clustered driveways and “granny flats” were hailed as creative ways to provide more affordable housing in a higher-density setting. But it opened just after the region’s housing market peaked and the builder struggled to find buyers.”

“Falling Leaf repeatedly cut prices. Example: Its smallest house, a 1,620-square-foot plan, was priced at $379,000 in August 2006, then dropped to $329,990 by February 2007 and dropped again to $269,900 in April 2007.”

“By last month, the development drastically sliced prices on its remaining inventory to about $100 per square foot. One 3,545-square-foot house with six bedrooms, four bathrooms, granite counters, stainless steel appliances and maple cabinets was advertised for $359,681.”

“The three sets of Falling Leaf model homes — at The Groves, The Trails and The Meadows — are closed. There’s a note on one sales office door saying ‘We are temporarily sold out.’ The Web site for Falling Leaf, meanwhile, has disappeared.”

“Increased building fees can kill a development, warned builder Neil Grevemberg, who owns an eight-lot subdivision off Fine Avenue across from Falling Leaf. He said his Cambrooke Court subdivision lost its vesting rights, and the city wants more than $52,000 per house in fees.”

“With the higher fees and the dramatically slowed demand for housing, Grevemberg said his project is ‘losing big money.’ The lots cost him about $200,000 each, but he said they now are worth only about $50,000 each.”

“‘I don’t know what we’re going to do,’ said Grevemberg. ‘They might sit there for 100 years.’”

Readers suggested a topic on the record number of foreclosures. “Do foreclosures always go up? And when will asking prices finally reflect the glut of foreclosures coming back on the market? I can wait forever if necessary, as renting is still cheaper than owning. ‘Home foreclosures and late payments set records over the first three months of the year and are expected to keep rising, stark signs of the housing crisis’ mounting damage to homeowners and the economy.”

“The latest snapshot of the mortgage market showed that the proportion of mortgages that fell into foreclosure soared to 0.99 percent in the January-through-March period. That surpassed the previous high of 0.83 percent over the last three months in 2007. The report by the Mortgage Bankers Association also found that more homeowners slipped behind on their monthly payments.”

A reply, “Inspired by that post, I’m wondering if we could discuss the number of people putting off the inevitable with the help of credit cards.”

“Are there any published data that points to numbers and how many people would start defaulting on other loans once revolving credit is shut off? Is there any data that analyzes time frames to default against numbers of those reaching that point?”

From Business Week. “With the subprime mortgage crisis already crippling the U.S. economy, some experts are warning that the next wave of foreclosures will begin accelerating in April, 2009. What that means is that hundreds of thousands of borrowers who took out so-called option adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) will begin to see their monthly payments skyrocket as they reset. About a million borrowers have option ARMs, but only a fraction have already fallen due.”

“Among the states expected to be worst-hit is already battered California. Today, outstanding option ARM loans in the U.S. total about $500 billion, about 60% of which were sold to California homeowners, according to Credit Suisse.”

“But California won’t be alone. Homeowners are also frighteningly vulnerable in states such as Arizona, Florida, New Jersey, and others.”

“‘Most of the public is thinking that the subprime thing is over, but this is another thing waiting,’ said Chandrajit Bhattacharya, mortgage strategist at Credit Suisse Securities. . ‘The problem for these borrowers is that once you go underwater, it’s very hard to refinance, and if you cannot refinance there is very little option for you.’”

From UPI. “Since 1992, when the Department of Housing and Urban Development became the regulator for the Federal National Mortgage Association and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp., the federally chartered companies have been obligated to help expand the availability of mortgages, The Washington Post reported Tuesday.”

‘But, as consumer groups warned banks were offering mortgages with low initial payments — called ‘teaser’ rates — to unqualified buyers, HUD neglected to assess the risks, the Post reported. ‘For HUD to be indifferent as to whether these loans were hurting people or helping them is really an abject failure to regulate,’ Michael Barr, a University of Michigan law professor, told the newspaper.”

“Between 2004 and 2006, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae helped set lending trends by purchasing $434 billion in securities backed by risky, subprime loans. Now, with 3 million to 4 million mortgage foreclosures expected, Congress is considering a move to find a stronger regulator to oversee the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, and may do so before the July 4 recess, the report said.”

The Boston Herald. “Massachusetts foreclosures have plummeted to a more than two-year low, but experts see the drop as temporary - the result of a new law requiring lenders to wait 90 days before seizing homes.”

“Market tracker the Warren Group reported yesterday in its Banker & Tradesman newspaper that lenders initiated just 390 Bay State foreclosures last month. That’s an 88 percent drop from April’s 3,327 filings, as well as the first time since January 2006 that lenders launched fewer than 1,000 foreclosures a month.”

“Experts suspect lenders simply delayed most May foreclosure filings three months until August. ‘From our perspective, we haven’t really seen things slow down,’ said Bill Minkle of Ensuring Stability through Action in Our Community, which counsels homeowners facing foreclosure.”

“Critics say the law essentially lets deadbeats stay in homes an extra 90 days, extending a six- to 12-month court procedure that lenders already followed. ‘You’re dragging out what’s already a very long process - and the end result is probably going to be foreclosure anyway,’ said Kevin Cuff of the Massachusetts Mortgage Bankers Association.”

The Enquirer. “Gov. Ted Strickland is expected to sign legislation this week requiring sheriffs to automatically record deeds within 14 days of a judge signing off on a foreclosure sale. The goal: to stop homes - and some homeowners - from ending up in a legal limbo in which, on paper at least, no one owns the home. When that happens, properties deteriorate, lawns go unmowed and cities don’t know whom to cite. Sometimes, former owners get socked with fines or bills after losing the property.”

“House Bill 138 simplifies the process of identifying a property owner after foreclosure. It also requires buyers of foreclosed homes to pay the balance due within 30 days of the sale.”

“Strickland’s Ohio Foreclosure Prevention Task Force recommended passing House Bill 138. The task force expressed concern about a paper-filing game often played by lenders who buy back their foreclosed properties. Until a deed with the new owner’s name is filed with the county recorder, code enforcers can’t hold anyone responsible for deteriorating properties. And vacant homes can attract crime and other problems.”

“But foreclosure lawyers say banks aren’t entirely to blame. Sheriffs can be slow to release the deeds to them, they say, and federal regulations for government-backed mortgages also can tie up paperwork. Speculators often buy at sheriff’s sales in hopes of flipping the properties without ever taking full possession.”

“House Bill 138 won’t affect the growing number of federal foreclosures or state foreclosure cases that are abandoned by the banks even before the sheriff’s sale.”

The Kansas City Star. “Some nights Terry and Carrie Madden won’t even step onto their patio in Waldo — the stench and mosquitoes from the abandoned swimming pool next door are overpowering. The Maddens’ cash-strapped neighbors moved out in August, and the lender on the now-vacant house let it fall into disrepair. The pool is slime-green. The grass is knee-high. Once Carrie Madden had to call police to chase away burglars.”

“‘It’s frustrating,’ she said. ‘It’s an eyesore, and it sits right at the entrance to our neighborhood. It’s not only a blight, it’s unsafe.’ Not what you would expect in a neighborhood of homes whose average value is about $280,000.”

“City officials say the house on West 69th Street is a prime example of a little-reported but increasingly worrisome trend: Lenders are delaying foreclosing on homes vacated by owners who can’t keep up with payments. Maintenance then stops, or it falls on taxpayers. And neighborhoods have to deal with a growing cancer of blight and falling home values.”

“‘Someone has to maintain the property,’ said Nathan Pare, the head of Kansas City’s dangerous buildings department. ‘If the owner surrenders the house, then it’s up to the bank. But some banks aren’t doing it.’”

“Why some banks aren’t quickly foreclosing on vacated properties is open to debate. The trend runs counter to the common assumption that banks want to get rid of distressed properties as fast as possible. City officials say some lenders delay taking possession because they want to avoid paying taxes and upkeep. Legal aid lawyers say banks may be trying to hide steep losses that could attract regulators. Industry officials say lenders are swamped during these difficult times.”

“‘I’ve not heard of any intentional acts,’ said Berry Laws III, a creditor’s attorney who represents lenders in foreclosures. ‘There’s just a glut. Lenders are overwhelmed with properties.’”

“Whatever the cause, experts say that the trend, which began around January, is spreading silently across the country and suggests that the number of failed mortgages may be far higher than official foreclosure counts disclose.”

“‘There are more and more properties falling through the cracks,’ said Joe Schilling, a founder of the National Vacant Properties Campaign. ‘What it means is that the crisis is a lot more complex than anybody knows. And the conclusion is that this is going to get much worse before it gets better.’”

The Sun Sentinel. “Now, the mortgage crisis is spawning health hazards. With foreclosures on the rise, officials are fielding more complaints about fetid, algae-choked pools that could become breeding grounds for bacteria, toads and disease-carrying mosquitoes.”

“In Wellington, William Bucknam waged a months-long battle to get the pool at his neighbor’s foreclosed house cleaned. ‘It had a terrible color and it smelled because something was growing in it,’ said Bucknam, who lives next door to the house on Nevis Place.”

“It’s impossible to know how many filthy pools there are in all of Broward and Palm Beach counties or how many houses with pools have been abandoned. But South Florida is known for its pool homes. Nearly one of every three Broward homes has a pool. The percentage rises to nearly half in Palm Beach County.”

“With more than 5,000 property owners facing foreclosure in the two counties, the number of abandoned pool homes easily could run into the hundreds.”

“Wellington can fine property owners who fall behind on a pool’s upkeep, and that process started for the home on Nevis Place, Chief Code Compliance Officer Cindy Drake said. The case still is scheduled for a special magistrate hearing on July 17.”

“If the pool’s waters were not clean by then, a special master could have ordered the property owner, listed on county property records as U.S. Bank National Association, to clean the pool or face a daily fine. A spokeswoman for US Bancorp, which owns U.S. Bank National Association, said the company is not responsible for maintaining the property because it is acting as a trustee for a group of investors who bought a bundle of mortgages.”

“A woman who answered the phone Thursday at Exit Realty, The Global Group Inc., west of West Palm Beach, said the company sent the cleaners to the home. She declined to comment further.”

“While Bucknam is happy that someone drained his neighbor’s pool in Wellington and scrubbed its walls, he’s upset that it took eight months to get the work done. ‘I think the bottom line is that banks should be in the shoes of the homeowner,’ he said. ‘They should take action without having to be chased down and beat over the head.’”

The News Press. “Riverside Bank of the Gulf Coast has parted ways with longtime president and CEO John Moran, the Cape Coral-based bank’s chairman said Monday. ‘A couple of weeks ago we accepted John’s resignation,’ said the chairman, Elmer Tabor, owner of Wonderland Realty in Cape Coral.”

“Moran, who’d been with Riverside eight years, was asked to leave because although ‘John is a great banker, unfortunately he’d never been through the tough times of banking right now,’ Tabor said.”

“Tabor said the banking industry is in for hard times because of the collapse of residential real estate values in Lee County since the median price of an existing single-family home sold with the assistance of a Realtor reached its all-time high of $322,300 in December 2005. In April 2008, the last month available, it was down 37 percent at $198,900, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.”

“As prices soared during the boom, Tabor said, Riverside made some construction loans that later went bad because the houses, when completed, weren’t worth as much as the loan and the borrowers wouldn’t close the deal.”

“Moran argued in a March 10 opinion piece in The News-Press that the worst of the housing crisis was over as sales were starting to pick up: ‘Spread the upbeat word, Southwest Florida: Things are a changin.’”

“He advised buyers sitting on the fence to act now because a recovery is in sight and prices will be rising soon. ‘Don’t let your snowball of an opportunity melt in the springtime of indecision.’”

“Now, Moran said Monday, he’ll look for another job in the banking field.”

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