Re-Shattering The Notion That Home Prices Can’t Fall
The Associated Press reports on California. “Median home prices dropped 26.7 percent in May across Southern California’s six most populous counties compared with last year. DataQuick said it marked the steepest annual drop since the firm began keeping records in 1988. Median home prices fell to $370,000 in Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties last month. It was the lowest median price reported since March 2004.”
“Sales volumes for the region were down nearly 15 percent from May 2007. Nearly 38 percent of all the homes sold in the region last month were in foreclosure at some point over the past 12 months.”
The Union Tribune. “Home prices continued to tumble in San Diego County last month, with the median of $380,000 reaching its lowest level since September 2003. San Diego’s median home price peaked in November 2005 at $517,500.”
“‘What horsepower this market can generate right now is mainly fueled by bargain shopping, especially by first-time buyers and investors in inland areas,’ said Andrew LePage, an analyst with DataQuick.”
“‘During the housing boom, we came to expect discounts on everything we buy except housing,’ LePage said. ‘Now we’ve re-shattered the notion that home prices can’t fall. The expectation is everybody is going to get a deal.’”
The Press Enterprise. “The spring activity usually expected in Southern California’s housing market was another disappointment last month. Shoppers looking for bargains helped push the region’s home sales higher in May compared to April, but it was still the fewest May home sales in the last 20 years.”
“A total of 16,917 homes closed escrow last month, up 1,300 from April but still 14.9 percent fewer than May 2007, DataQuick found.”
“In Riverside County, foreclosure-related sales accounted for 56.6 percent of all resale transactions.”
“The median home price fell to $290,000 in Riverside County and $250,250 in San Bernardino County. Both are down about 30 percent from where they were 12 months ago and also off about $130,000 from the peak median values hit in late 2006.”
The Ventura County Star. “There were 708 transactions for new and existing houses and condominiums in May, a 17.8 percent drop from 861 a year ago, DataQuick reported today. That was also a slight decline from 771 sales in April.”
“The median price fell 26.3 percent to $435,000 in May from $590,000 a year ago. In April, the median price was $445,000.”
“Sales remained especially slow in most higher-end markets, with jumbo mortgages comprising only a slightly higher percentage of all purchase loans in May than in April, said Andrew LePage, a DataQuick analyst, in a statement.”
The New York Times. “With sweeping canyon views, gated access and nearby homes owned by the likes of Britney Spears, Ed McMahon’s house above Beverly Hills looks like the symbol of a life well paid.”
“At 85, Mr. McMahon is in the twilight of a successful career, as a broadcast announcer, professional pitchman for brands like Alpo and Budweiser, and television host. His house is the one product he has not been able to sell.”
“In the two years the 7,000-square-foot property has been listed on the market, currently at $6.5 million, he has not received a single offer, he said. The recent publicity is turning that around. By the end of last week, there were two offers for the house, said his real estate agent, Alex Davis.”
“Earlier this year, he defaulted, he said, on a $4.8-million loan from a unit of Countrywide Financial Corporation. Mr. McMahon, who is more than $600,000 in arrears on the loan, refused to discuss any other details of that or any other debts.”
“But real estate agents in Beverly Hills say that an inability to sell in two years point at a too-high asking price. Originally $7.6 million in 2006, the price was lowered several times, to $5.7 million in January, then climbed to the current $6.5 million. (Mr. Davis said the increase was needed to cover Mr. McMahon’s debt.)”
“‘It’s not the market or Britney Spears,’ said Drew Mandile, an agent in Beverly Hills, who brought clients to see the house in 2006. ‘Two years means you’re a stubborn person and you refuse to face the reality of the value of the home.’”
“Mrs. McMahon offered another explanation. ‘Ed and I prayed that we wouldn’t sell it,’ she said, admitting that they don’t really want to move.”
“Mr. Davis, the real estate agent, said that there had been no urgency to sell until a few months ago, and that he had been selective in showing the property. One factor, he said, was the need to respect his clients’ privacy; but another, ‘for quite some time,’ was the need to avoid the paparazzi camped out outside the gate.”
“‘Everybody was following Britney Spears, and we thought a lot of people were trying to get into the community’ by posing as potential buyers, he said, adding that Ms. Spears’s home is now also for sale.”
From CNN.com. “When Shaun Yandell proposed to his long-time girlfriend on the doorstep of their new home in the sunny suburb of Elk Grove, California, four years ago, he never imagined things would get this bad. But they did, and it happened almost overnight.”
“Yandell’s marriage isn’t falling apart: his neighborhood is. ‘It is going to be heartbreak,’ Yandell told CNN. ‘But we are hanging on.’”
“Devastated by the subprime mortgage crisis, hundreds of homes have been foreclosed and thousands of residents have been forced to move, leaving in their wake a not-so-pleasant path of empty houses, unkempt lawns, vacant strip malls, graffiti-sprayed desolate sidewalks and even increased crime.”
“In Elk Grove, some homeowners not only cut their own grass but also trim the yards of vacant homes on their streets, hoping to deter gangs and criminals from moving in.”
“For Yandell, his wife and many other residents trying to stick it out, the white picket fence of an American dream has faded into a seemingly hopeless suburban nightmare. ‘The forecast is gloomy,’ he told CNN.”
“Arthur C. Nelson, director of Virginia Tech’s Metropolitan Institute, estimates that in 2025 there will be a surplus of 22 million large-lot homes that will not be left vacant in a suburban wasteland but instead occupied by lower classes who have been driven out of their once affordable inner-city apartments and houses.”
“The so-called McMansion, he said, will become the new multi-family home for the poor.”
“‘What is going to happen is lower and lower-middle income families squeezed out of downtown and glamorous suburban locations are going to be pushed economically into these McMansions at the suburban fringe,’ said Nelson. ‘There will probably be ten people living in one house.’”
“In Shaun Yandell’s neighborhood, this has already started to happen. Houses once filled with single families are now rented out by low-income tenants. Yandell speculates that they’re coming from nearby Sacramento, where the downtown is undergoing substantial gentrification, or perhaps from some other area where prices have gotten too high. He isn’t really sure.”
“But one thing Yandell is sure about is that he isn’t going to leave his sunny suburban neighborhood unless he has to, and if that happens, he says he would only want to move to another one just like it.”
“‘It’s the American dream, you know,’ he said. ‘The American dream.’”
The Appeal Democrat. “Every day Steve Nickless and his crew load up a trailer with mowers and weed trimmers and get to work on lawns. The homes they visit, though, are unoccupied. Nickless is hired to maintain hundreds of abandoned and foreclosed homes in the Central Valley.”
“Yuba County alone had 357 foreclosed homes and another 650 in pre-foreclosure stages for the first quarter of 2008, according to DQNews. Many of those foreclosures were in the Plumas Lake and Edgewater communities.”
“Mike Meyers, vice president of BV Home Services, said the company is contracted by banks for minimum upkeep and maintenance. Not all homes, though, are tended to.”
“‘This is unacceptable,’ said BV owner Vianey Santibanez, of the 2-foot-tall weeds and dry grass at two homes on Branding Iron Way.”
“‘Banks don’t turn on the water because the cost would be astronomical,’ he said referring to the number of homes that are bank-owned. ‘Some neighbors have asked if they could water the property, and I tell them go ahead because this is an allergy nightmare.’”
“Plumas Lake homeowner Sue Cason said she hasn’t seen this many foreclosures in one neighborhood. ‘We moved here because it was new,’ she said. ‘It hurts to see it.’”
“The position of Cason’s front door provides a direct view of other well-manicured yards in the neighborhood, but that is not the case right next door.”
“‘When I go to the mailbox, I shield my eyes,’ she said jokingly of 2-foot-tall dead weeds on the lawn adjoining her property.”
The Union. “Thousands of Nevada County properties bought at the height of the real estate boom could receive tax reductions this year, because some homes have plunged by as much as one-fourth of their value, according to the assessor’s office.”
“‘The market value of many homes has decreased. Our responsibility is to place the market value or assessed value on a property,’ said county assessor Dale Flippin.”
“Early last year and the previous year, the real estate market peaked and was followed by a prolonged slump. ‘That’s primarily who we are trying to target - the ones who got trapped in that peak market,’ Flippin said.”
“From 2000 to 2006, the real estate market in Nevada County boomed, with property tax revenue reaching highs of 14 percent, Flippin said. The prolonged housing slump has helped steer the nation to the brink of a recession. Reductions are temporary and will return to the original assessed value when home markets rise again.”
“‘We’ll now have to review these properties every year,’ Flippin said. ‘I don’t think we’ll come out of this quickly, but I do think we’ve reached bottom.’”