You Are Starting To See Too Much Inventory
A report from the Wall Street Journal. “Owners of an apartment complex near Pittsburgh, who wanted to take out a mortgage on the buildings, allegedly made vacant units look occupied by turning on radios, placing shoes and mats outside doors and in one instance having a woman tell inspectors her boyfriend was asleep inside. The owners obtained a $45.8 million loan, which was wrapped into mortgage securities and sold to investors.”
“Practices such as these—which were alleged in a federal search-warrant application—have sparked one of the largest mortgage-fraud investigations since the financial crisis. It focuses on whether income from commercial properties was falsified, a move that would enable owners to get larger mortgages and take out cash or expand their businesses faster.”
“Still in its early stages, the investigation has so far yielded a fraud-conspiracy indictment against four real-estate executives in upstate New York. Loans that some or all of them were involved with totaled about $170 million, the indictment alleges. Investigators have sought mortgage data on dozens of other apartment buildings, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal and interviews with people familiar with the probe. Investigators have looked at student housing and self-storage facilities in addition to apartment complexes.”
“About $1.5 billion of securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are backed by mortgages from just one developer who has been under scrutiny, according to a Journal analysis of loan data from Thomson Reuters. The 2010 Dodd-Frank financial overhaul required home borrowers to document their income, and home lenders to verify it. The rule doesn’t apply to multifamily housing.”
“‘All the systems will work fine as long as people are being honest,’ said Sam Berns, senior vice president at NorthMarq Capital LLC, one of about two dozen firms licensed to originate and sell multifamily mortgages to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. If borrowers or their mortgage brokers choose, they can easily submit and certify false numbers, he said. ‘It’s a fault and a failure within the system.’”
“One owner of properties investigators reviewed is Robert C. Morgan, the founder of a suburban Rochester, N.Y.,-based apartment development company. He built a business of more than 140 properties with over 34,000 rental units across 14 states, according to its website. ‘There’s a lot of money chasing the multifamily assets, more money than deals,’ Mr. Morgan said at a Freddie Mac housing conference last year.”
From Crain’s New York. “Some 8,278 condo units are in the Manhattan development pipeline and around 2,000 of those are expected to hit the market within the next year, according to Halstead Property Development Marketing. The new development market has grown increasingly soft, especially for the priciest product, as projects planned after the height of the market in 2014 now come up for sale—joining many existing new buildings that have not moved all of their units.”
“As a result, supply has grown. Halstead’s first-quarter report showed around 6,000 apartments available in the borough, though some of those were being held off the market by developers until they can unload more units. How quickly these units will sell depends on the location, according to Halstead.”
“‘The supply-constrained neighborhoods that are most in demand are still seeing healthy absorption,’ said Robin Schneiderman, managing director at Halstead’s new-development arm. ‘When you go into the second-tier neighborhoods that have a lot of product and the pricing is not meeting the market, that is where you are starting to see too much inventory.’”
“However, sales volume has been declining and absorption—the amount of time it would take to sell all available supply at the market’s current pace—has been on the rise. If existing product does not sell, adding more will balloon inventory and put downward pressure on prices.”
From Long Island Business News. “For some time now, year-over-year home sales prices have increased while sales have declined. National figures for new and existing home sales confirm this. Some observers even worry that another housing price bubble – a rapid and unsustainable run-up on prices – is on the horizon. With homes being the major purchase for most consumers, this would be harmful for Long Island and elsewhere.”
“A confluence of factors has contributed to declining sales. Clearly, rising mortgage interest rates have given potential home buyers pause. Changes in the deductibility of mortgage interest and property taxes have likely been contributing factors as well. On Long Island, the situation is similar to the national experience. In Nassau County, year-over-year sales prices have increased every month for at least the past year. But year-over-year sales have declined for nine of the past 12 months. The steady growth in prices in the face of declining sales seems unsustainable. But evidence suggests that home sales inventories are finally starting to rise, both nationally and on Long Island.”