Either Sell Below Asking Or Wait And Wait For Better Days
A report from the New York Times. “During the past decade, many U.S. cities have been transformed by young professionals of the millennial generation, with downtowns turning into bustling neighborhoods full of new apartments and pricey coffee bars. But soon, cities may start running out of millennials. The flow of young professionals into Philadelphia has flattened, according to JLL Research, while apartment rents have started to soften in some big cities because of a glut of new construction geared toward urban newcomers who haven’t arrived. Apartment rents in San Francisco, Washington, Denver, Miami and New York are moderating or even declining from a year ago, according to Zillow.”
“‘Certainly the softening of rents is one sign that they are not coming in at the pace that people thought they would,’ said Diane Swonk, an independent economist in Chicago.”
From Bostinno in Massachusetts. “As you learned right here at the beginning of January, the median one-bedroom rent in Boston actually dropped 5.9 percent since the start of 2016 – the first time that’s happened in these parts in quite some time. Zumper has now put together some more information about the rent trends it’s seeing in Boston, complete with a handy heat map showing what neighborhoods have seen rents rise and which have seen things go the other way.”
“Area IV (-12%), Beacon Hill (-10%), and Chinatown - Leather District (-10%) saw the biggest rent declines in 2016. Area IV, I’ve learned, is the Cambridge neighborhood roughly wedged between Central Square, Inman Square and MIT – a pretty prime location geographically speaking. And as for Beacon Hill, I can only assume people just aren’t willing to pay for the relative lack of space if affords anymore? Boston is still the third most expensive rental market in the country, Zumper estimates. And yet the map, which covers 39 neighborhoods, shows a surprising amount of areas that have seen rents go down over the past year.”
The Chicago Tribune in Illinois. “Real estate agents are looking forward to a stronger spring selling season after a lackluster winter. The threat of rising interest rates could prompt potential homebuyers who have been sitting on the sidelines to finally take action, said Jonathan Smoke, economist with Realtor.com. He also said that presently, buying is often cheaper than renting because rents have become so high, but that’s likely to change as rents are cut amid oversupply of new rental housing.”
“The weak housing trends during the last six months seem entrenched and do not appear ready for a major upswing in the next few months, said Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois. Each month he examines home sales and prices collected for Illinois Realtors. ‘I’m very pessimistic,’ he said, noting that weak job growth in the Chicago area and concerns about the state’s huge debts and unresolved budget are stifling housing sales. ‘I feel sorry for people in the realty business.’”
The Miami Herald in Florida. “As residential sales and prices flatten out overall in South Florida, the luxury real estate market is taking a beating. A strong dollar, economic instability in Latin America and overbuilding have hit luxury real estate much harder than other parts of the market. ‘We have more luxury inventory than we’ve ever had in our history,’ said Ron Shuffield, president and CEO of EWM Realty International. ‘And sales are as low as they’ve been for several years.’”
“Sellers are cutting their demands, especially for condos, industry data show. For instance, Douglas Elliman found that Miami condo prices dropped 32 percent year-over-year in the fourth quarter. It’s either sell below asking or wait …. and wait … for better days. On the Beach, the number of days luxury condos spent on the market ballooned from 62 to 171 over the last year. That’s partly because of the competition from new construction.”
From Realtor.com on New York. “The long-awaited opening of the Second Avenue Subway has not helped singer Ricky Martin sell his Yorkville condo. After failing to find a buyer, the singer has had to slash the asking price of his 3,147-square-foot condo, which has been on the market since October, from $8.4 million to $7.1 million. His pad is located at 170 East End Ave., a Peter Marino-designed luxury condominium overlooking Carl Schurz Park in the Upper East Side’s Yorkville neighborhood, close to the East River.”
From SF Weekly in California. “The New York Times found room over the weekend to do something else it also does very well: troll San Francisco. With a headline that reads like a plaintive cry à la Children of Men, the NYT ventriloquizes one facet of the housing issue: ‘San Francisco Asks: Where Have All the Children Gone?’ It’s by no means an offensive question to ask; the Chronicle basically wrote the same article last week. Both pieces reference the same Planning Department report, issued on Jan. 17, that puts S.F.’s share of families with children under 19 at the lowest of every Bay Area county as well as a sampling of large cities nationwide. But the conclusions the Times drew are, at best, facile — and also reflect their penchant for jabbing a stick at S.F.’s eccentricities for sport.”
“First — and this is a sin the Chron commits, too — just because there are 120,000 dogs and 120,000 children in S.F., values-based comparisons are silly. The Times does imply something’s not right in the housing mix, when dropping this amazing stat: ‘For every 100 apartments in the city sold at market rates, the San Francisco school district expects to enroll only one additional student.’”
“Is it possible that San Francisco has fewer children than it should because 70 percent of dwellings with three bedrooms or more are currently occupied by adult roommates, while in a more rational housing market, families would live there instead? Or maybe our obsession with building luxury housing has actually yielded many uninhabited units nominally ‘occupied’ by hyper-affluent people who actually reside elsewhere?”
‘We have more luxury inventory than we’ve ever had in our history,’ said Ron Shuffield. ‘And sales are as low as they’ve been for several years.’
‘On the Beach, the number of days luxury condos spent on the market ballooned from 62 to 171 over the last year. That’s partly because of the competition from new construction’
If you run the numbers on this super lux under construction and the sales rate, it gets into many, many years.
What’s weird to me is the staying power of these pricey listings. I know of certain houses which have been for sale for over 10 years. I guess it’s just rich people who aren’t really seller, but just looking for a sucker.
Most of them are owned by banks/hedge funds. There are millions of them. In spite of their efforts to manage inventory, prices and rental rates are falling. Big Lee.
‘Curbed Comparisons: What $6,250 rents you in San Francisco right now’
‘There’s something nifty about this four-bed, two-and-a-half bath Sunset Victorian near Irving. Probably it’s that eye-popping pink and lavender facade, complete with fish scale shingles and fuchsia trim on the door panels. This home has appeared on Comparisons before, but back then it was asking nearly $7,000/month. Its price has tumbled since November, down to $6,150/month now, so maybe it’ll prove more popular this go-round.’
A family friend lives in a 4-bedroom by himself in SF. $2,400 per month.
Rent control “saved” the market from having 3 additional bedrooms of supply.
Don’t tell Blue Skye. He’ll lecture your friend that he should be living in a 1-bed condo, as befits a man of his marital status.
When that’s all you can afford, thats what you get.
Remember….. If you have to borrow for 15 or 30 years, you can’t afford it nor is it affordable.
If you want to get out of debt and save up a huge stack of dollars, you make some practical choices. If not, just ridicule those not having their own personal donkey cart to pull around.
That’s right. There’s nothing complicated about it.
How can any corrupt, incompetent Democrat party machine fix anything? And how will “sending in the Feds” to a dystopia like Chicago turn things around? This is what the lowlife people of Chicago voted for - let them stew in their own juice.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-24/chicago-rocky-start-2017-homicides-exceed-violent-2016-pace
They could arrest and jail the mayor.
A huge step in the right direction.
Sounds expensive.
Man, the comments on that one are really something - lampshade, dindus, correct people are a dyin’ in Chicago - really great Americans right there.
Well, jeebus, Brother Mike, what are ya waitin’ for? There’s some read meat for ya! Get that travelin’ salvation show of yours right over there and show them the error of their ways.
This is you new shtick, then, whenever anyone criticizes anyone else about anything. Of course, it doesn’t apply to you.
Mike, mike, it’s a new audience for ya! Remember to say “nonsense and foolishness”. Or “foolishness and nonsense”.
So many people to sermonize, so little time. Now be smart about it and crack that whip!
“whenever anyone criticizes anyone else about anything.”
Sorry folks, I forgot this one. It’s a beaut, too. Always remember, you’re supposed to accept criticism from the self-anointed. For your own good, of course.
I’m so hurt, I was just trying to expand your horizons.
Sniff, SOB!
Bahhhhhhhhhhhhh
let chighetto fix itself
no bail
Sorry folks, I forgot this one. It’s a beaut, too. Always remember, you’re supposed to accept criticism from the self-anointed. For your own good, of course.
Listen to your betters.
“Listen to your betters.”
Or by golly, I’ll cut me a switch from the sumac tree and blister your bottom good.
Saw someone throw out “dindus” on this board the other day. Didn’t bat an eye at the time, but the only other place I’ve seen that is on Reddit’s now defunct /r/coontown.
Yep, racism is dead in this country…
You’re really an asshole. I’ve never heard of that word. And yesterday you say some crap about “here” in 2008 like it’s a place, and someone goes back and finds the post election thread and it was nothing like you described. Why don’t you just go the F- away and stay there?
ban hammer time?
Ben, the A-word?? You used to always say that this was a _family_ blog!
BTW, TIL: dindus.
Yes, I had to google it.
drama queen. Big Lee
Is “Big Lee” the new handle for HA?
Carry on
Thanks for confirming.
Is “Big Lee” the new handle for HA?
Yeah, it’s time to update the ignore list…
+1, drummin…
Neither of you have the fortitude to do so and we all know it.
I just searched the comments for every post on HBB for the last two weeks for the word “dindus” (also never heard of this word before.)
The only comment containing this word is the one you just posted here.
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9972#comments
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9971#comments
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9970#comments
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9969#comments
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9968#comments
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9967#comments
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9966#comments
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9965#comments
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9964#comments
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9963#comments
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9962#comments
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9961#comments
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9960#comments
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9959#comments
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9958#comments
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9957#comments
I though that I saw someone refer to Obama as the dindu in chief within the past couple of weeks. Unfortunately, the search page on Southrustern.com isn’t currently available.
I found this from November:
Comment by mcbain!
2016-11-19 15:47:12
Pretty easy to drop dead in Chicago, just go into the right neighborhood and the dindu nuffins will be happy to oblige. They even like to “drop dead” each other all the time.
(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by rms
2016-11-19 23:35:08
Could even happen over a pair of tennis shoes. Hehe.
When I wuz a pup, the term “dindu” applied to the smart-azz kid who stood behind you in line and stepped on your heels or shoved you and when you called him on it, he’d stand there all innocent and say something like “I didn’t do nuthin”, so the teacher would blame you and you’d be the one who got in trouble.
Later on “I didn’t do nuthin” morphed into “dindu nuffin”, shortened to “dindu” and was applied to yutes, usually of color, who got caught committing a crime or who were accused of committing a crime and denied it, sometimes rightly, sometimes wrongly.
How do you do that, search threads? I was looking for an old post but had no luck…
I’ve seen a link to a site that allows a search, but alas, I seem to have lots it…does anyone know how to search across multiple threads?
‘I found this from November’
Another perfect example of negativity and wasted time on internet morality plays. What did we learn? Wasn’t this sooo constructive? I don’t even know what reddit is and I don’t care. I’m curious: I see giant threads on the big media sites that make this blogs comments look like Sunday Church. Why doesn’t Mike head over there and search through their comments and lecture everybody? Heck, no search needed, every tenth comment is worse than anything you’ll see here.
I’m not criticizing you. It’s actually quite educational to see how people think.
Because the Church Lady is too much of a coward to go confront some of the really raw sites where he might actually do some good.
I see giant threads on the big media sites
Not NBCnews dot com. They have discontinued the comment function on *all* their news stories. And it happened on Inauguration day. Yep, Thursday the comment button was there and Friday it had disappeared. Co-iniky-dink? I think not.
Dindu nuffin as far as I know was a pun based on the all too common occurrence of a baby mama’s utterances to reporters when lamenting that her precious snowflake got dispatched by either another snowflake or the cops whilst in the commission of a crime, as in
“Mah baby dindu nuffin!” - even in the face of eye witnesses, video, admissions of guilt, etc. Hence the birth of a meme.
There are tshirts, hats, mugs, you name it based on this cultural meme. The great reporter Colin Flaherty describes multiple instances per DAY of dindu antics on his youtube channel(s) where he sells some merch along with his very insightful books. He doesnt seem to be a (((racis!))), just a numbers guy.
Colin Flaherty:
A quick look at Twitter page shows an obsession with black on white crime, retweets of Stefan Molyneux and use of the word rayciss.
Why don’t you go to this tweeter page and say something there?
Junior_kai mentioned the guy on this blog. I responded to that statement.
Why doesn’t Mike head over there and search through their comments and lecture everybody?
Simple, Ben: that site isn’t part of the beat for Mikey’s job…
If thugs are killing thugs, they’re helping the situation, in my humble opinion. This ghetto culture stuff is rotten to the very core, and the people who engage in it are pretty much beyond help.
I think Carlos Mencia once said the he was for thugs being taught to shoot straight, so the could take each other out more efficiently.
Does Trump think Chicago is too big to fail?
Where is the smaller gov and less spending?
I thought the const forbids a federal police force
and it is a bailout-let chighetto pay their own tab
Maybe we could entice Rodrigo Duterte from The LBFM Archipelago to run for Da Mare of Chicago? He seems to bring the right kind of attitude to the job…
“Hugs for Thugs”
These headlines are from Crain’s New York Business.
Amazon and high rents are killing New York City retailers
Restaurants are seeing their profits devoured by landlords and labor costs
‘At Least 60 Bay Area Restaurants Have Closed Since September’
‘It’s been a rough, rough year or two for restaurateurs around the country and the local region, and as January draws to a close we have a somewhat shocking estimated tally of how many Bay Area restaurants have decided to close up shop in the last five months — either voluntarily after many years in business, due to increased headaches and decreased profits, or those that were forced to close after just a few short months or years.’
‘Gwyneth Borden, executive director of the Golden Gate Restaurant Association, tells the EB Times, “We’re at this precipice where the model of the full-service restaurant is being pushed to brink.”
‘It’s a refrain that’s been widely echoed in the media, via restaurateurs, and it’s not SF’s problem alone. Thrillist published a three-piece series over the new year that concluded with an article asserting that “there’s a massive restaurant industry bubble” nationwide, and it’s “about to burst.” One of the primary sources quoted in the piece was AQ owner Matt Semmelhack, a first-time restaurateur when he burst on the local scene five years ago, but who’s now been chastened by having to close his two biggest restaurants in quick succession — Bon Marché after barely a year, and his flagship AQ, this month, after just over five years.’
‘Thrillist noted that Portland chef Andy Ricker, who took his Thai restaurant concept Pok Pok to New York several years back, shuttered his Sen Yai noodle joint in Portand citing “soaring rents, the rising minimum wage, and stereotypical ideas about ‘ethnic food’ as ‘cheap food’”, in speaking to Portland Monthly. Even major New York restaurateur Danny Meyer was forced to relocate his famed Union Square Cafe last year after his landlord jacked the rent.’
‘Then there’s the issue of competition. Every city in the country has seen a culinary boom in the last ten years, and there’s a certain similarity that pervades many of the nation’s hippest dining spots.’
@Ben Jones - “Restaurants are seeing their profits devoured by landlords and labor costs”
Yep - for example, a Michelin rated restaurant nearby closed two years ago. Still empty. The landlord is asking $40,000/month rent.
Even using common core math, $40,000 X 0 = 0.
Or using conventional math, $40K x 2 yrs = $1 million.
That’s just rent. Doesn’t include labor costs or food. It’s a small place, too.
Lesson: Don’t be a DebtDonkey. Big Lee
Well that raises a question. If the building owner can pay the building mortgage and carrying costs without the unit paying rent, then who is filling in the mortgage and carrying costs? And if someone is backstopping the mortgage and carrying costs, then why did the building owner feel the need to raise the rent so high?
But that’s the mindset of luxury. It’s better to get a few high priced, high margin tenants than to offer low margin services to more clients. The high margin from the high price was enough to tide over through the dry times of few clients. This way, you can break even but still retain the luxe reputation, instead of cheapening your brand just to stay in business. Nothing is worse than a sale rack! It indicates that your stuff is *so* bad that even people who have the money are refusing to buy.
And heck, maybe you’ll get more stupid clients willing to pay your high price and increase your profit. I’ve heard of this for everything from overpriced watches to luxury apartments, to designer clothing, to the private company I used to work for.
Of course it’s the people who suffer.
And it’s resulted in falling rents all over NYC. You lower the rental rate. Big Lee
The extremely wealthy are the ones who own the commercial real estate that sits empty for years, years and years. Oftentimes the buildings are paid off and they pay the taxes, or they mortgage them to fund other projects, etc. The kind of money they have is unfathomable to most.
If the building owner can pay the building mortgage and carrying costs without the unit paying rent, then who is filling in the mortgage and carrying costs? ”
Money laundering and they don’t care about small change ?
IDK
This issue has bothered me for the past 20 years. I have seen commercial buildings that have been empty for several years running, everywhere I look (the “for lease” signs literally have been in place for decades and have to be replaced due to fading).
I think they use these buildings as tax writeoffs to offset other gains. How else can they afford to let the buildings stay empty for so long?
And to add insult to injury, they then build new commercial/light-industrial buildings right next door which will also most likely be empty or only partially leased.
Too much cheap money in our system, methinks.
That reminds me of a deli nearby that moved due to the landlord asking for higher rent. The deli moved down the street and is doing fine while the building they were in is sitting vacant for the last several months.
Reality hits.
The only resturants left standing will be the giant chains.
And progressives/liberals will wonder why only red states have mom and pop restaurants.
And theyou will demand the government should do something…like more regulations and taxes.
“And progressives/liberals will wonder why only red states have mom and pop restaurants.”
I see people already forgot who was in charge last time when the last housing bubble happened. Hint - Bush was not a progressive/liberal.
LOL! Red states are Waffle House Heaven.
Yeah, they’re more likely to like the chains. Mike Pence took his wife and daughter to a Chili’s when they were in NYC.
“Mike Pence took his wife and daughter to a Chili’s when they were in NYC.”
Oh, the horror! Too bad you weren’t in the cast of Hamilton, you could have lectured him about it from the stage.
That sounds more like you. You can’t trust any restaurant. You never know what’s going on back in the kitchen.
“That sounds more like you.”
Sniff, SOB! Poor Mike Pence, he didn’t have Mikey to sermonize him.
The Globalist’s nightmare:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/president-trump-is-planning-to-sign-executive-orders-on-immigration-this-week/2017/01/24/aba22b7a-e287-11e6-a453-19ec4b3d09ba_story.html?utm_term=.286d5e83b292
Probably my last post for the day. For the next three months my posts will still be limited. I did enjoy yesterday. Always knew that Oxide was open to ideas. But being anti-globalist is not left or right, it is American.
Good to see you’re back, anyway.
lol@donk. Big Lee
Did your friend get another flight back to Seattle?
Comment by MightyMike
2017-01-24 20:53:53
I don’t know what the f— you’re talking about.
Passengers Cheer As Liberal Hag Is Thrown Off Airplane For Berating Trump Supporter
Published on Jan 22, 2017
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-3XbycyQrk
And of course the comments are the usual talking points. For example: “Illegals pay billions in taxes. But don’t let facts get in the way of your bigotry.”
That’s because the illegals have the jobs. If you fill those jobs with legals and citizens, then the legals and citizens will pay the exact same billions in taxes… and won’t produce lots of expensive students for the schools.
“who’s going to scrub your toilet.”
I scrub my own toilet, thank you. And parents can set their kids to doing the housework as a duty to being part of the family, just as my parents did. And how many of those Rust Belt Trump voters could ever afford to hire a cleaning service anyway? We aren’t ALL east coast libs.
You’re assuming all “east cost libs” are in favor of not implementing immigration laws and/or uncontrolled migration.
It ain’t so.
“That’s because the illegals have the jobs.”
Several of the situations I know of the illegal head of the house has a job, the stay at home illegal Mom does not and the legal anchor babies she raises are the meal ticket for the government assistance.
‘For the next three months my posts will still be limited’
Sounds like this guy I knew of that was on work release from the county jail. He too had disappeared and reappeared suddenly.
Uncontrolled rage results in consquences. Big Lee.
“Probably my last post for the day. For the next three months my posts will still be limited. I did enjoy yesterday.”
I don’t know about anybody else, but I certainly won’t miss your self-congratulatory ego trip.
I Like Albuquerquedan brings up interesting stuff
So what if you’re wrong , I don’t know many who predicted a oil crash last year.
You’re assuming all “east cost libs” are in favor of not implementing immigration laws and/or uncontrolled migration.
I’m sure there are a handful that do want to control migration. But if they were the majority Hillary would have campaigned on that. Instead Trump grabbed that banner and ran with it.
She pandered to illegals every step of the way, no doubt middle America would just shrug and say “what are you gonna do about it?”
Poll: Despite Trump victory, voters support abortion, oppose border wall
Published November 23, 2016
Despite his electoral victory, a majority of Americans do not support President-elect Donald Trump’s campaign promises to overturn Roe v. Wade, build a border wall with Mexico or cut off the path to citizenship for undocumented workers, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.
“Two of President-elect Donald Trump’s signature campaign mantras get hearty thumbs down,” Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll, said. “Voters to Trump: No way on reversing Roe v Wade and not a chance on building that wall.”
Sixty-four percent of those surveyed said they agreed with the landmark Supreme Court case that legalized abortion. Of those that supported it, 26 percent said that it should be legal in “all cases,” while 38 percent said it should be legal in “most cases.” Ten percent said it should be illegal in all cases.
When it comes to immigration, 55 percent of those polled oppose building a wall along the Mexican border. Sixty percent also say they support a path to citizenship. Another 12 percent of American voters say illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay in the country but not become citizens, while 25 percent say they should be deported.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/23/poll-despite-trump-victory-voters-support-abortion-oppose-border-wall.html
Trump campaigned on unconstitutional curtailing of freedom, bigotry and racism, not just on “controlling migration”.
Hillary was extremely unpopular, and many voted not for her, but against the fascist liar Trump.
“…Albuquerquedan brings up interesting stuff…”
He’s constructing false narratives, shilling for special interests with propaganda and lies.
NYchk- I think your heart’s in the right place, but sometimes you can’t see the forest for the trees. Trump didn’t campaign on racism and bigotry, he campaigned on a change in direction and JOBS. CNN, and all the other MSM trash, made it about race. If the south of the border residents were white, he’d still be doing what he’s doing.
@ PitchforkPurveyor - “I think your heart’s in the right place, but sometimes you can’t see the forest for the trees. Trump didn’t campaign on racism and bigotry, he campaigned on a change in direction and JOBS.”
I can’t divorce the man from his (supposed) program. Theoretically, on a lot of issues, I’m actually much closer to a “Trump’s program” vs. “Clinton’s”, but all that pales when I take into account the reality of who espouses these ideas.
“Consider the source”, i.e., credibility is important. Trump has zero credibility, because he’s lies outlandishly, constantly and pathologically.
On top of it, his actions do not support his words (a billionaire who does not “buy/hire American”, who’s mired in corruption, whose administration is already full of nepotism, cronyism, conflicts of interest, etc.).
On top of that, his words, as well as the online strategy of his paid supporters, are tailored to incite division, hatred, bigotry, bullying, and the death of free rational debate, in order to replace “rational reason” with “blind emotion”.
He shows all the hallmarks of a wanna-be dictator, and that is extremely dangerous. For me, this is not just about a political disagreement - some of the things his “program” says I whole-heartedly support, while some I find stupid or short-sighted, but I wouldn’t be nearly as alarmed if the whole package - if the “man” behind it - was not so reminiscent of populist dictators past and present.
Finally, IMHO, he is a Russian asset. (Although it’s possible that his overblown ego doesn’t even let him realize who he’s working for, or how his actions might irreversibly harm America.)
So, while I wouldn’t mind the change in direction and focus on jobs - why would I believe a dangerous populist liar just because he might say something I’d like to hear?
The only winner here is me. And I’m living in your head and The White House….. All rent-free.
“The only winner here is me.”
What a stupid comment.
““Consider the source”, i.e., credibility is important. Trump has zero credibility, because he’s lies outlandishly, constantly and pathologically.
On top of it, his actions do not support his words (a billionaire who does not “buy/hire American”, who’s mired in corruption, whose administration is already full of nepotism, cronyism, conflicts of interest, etc.).
On top of that, his words, as well as the online strategy of his paid supporters, are tailored to incite division, hatred, bigotry, bullying, and the death of free rational debate, in order to replace “rational reason” with “blind emotion”.”
But you’ve just perfectly described Hillary Clinton. I would happily agree they’re both scum, but there’s one distinction- he’s talking about actually bringing jobs back to the United States, she’s talking up globalization. It’s about jobs, that’s it. The Democrats just DON’T GET IT.
That said, I do read your comments here and appreciate the perspective of somebody who has lived in another country under a brutal regime. Cheers.
Sixty percent also say they support a path to citizenship.
There already IS a path to citizenship. You want to be a citizen, follow that path. No shortcuts.
As for the wall, approval of the wall is not that same as pro-illegal. I suppose I could say that I oppose the wall, but only because I think the money should be used instead for cracking down on employers, cleaning up the SS number identity theft, and detaining and deporting the illegals already here.
“who’s mired in corruption, whose administration is already full of nepotism, cronyism, conflicts of interest…”
Good Lord. We’ve got a real Kremlin Rose here.
she’s talking up globalization. It’s about jobs, that’s it. The Democrats just DON’T GET IT.
I don’t recall that. Do you have a link? When did she talk up globalization?
Sixty percent also say they support a path to citizenship.
There already IS a path to citizenship. You want to be a citizen, follow that path. No shortcuts.
It means a path for those present in the country illegally.
I suppose I could say that I oppose the wall, but only because I think the money should be used instead for cracking down on employers, cleaning up the SS number identity theft, and detaining and deporting the illegals already here.
That’s beside the point. The number who want a wall is fewer than the number that don’t.
“It means a path for those present in the country illegally.”
Certainly not impossible, but very problematic.
When you break into a place, you are usually not welcomed.
‘The number who want a wall is fewer than the number that don’t’
Too late. I heard they aren’t going to release detainees waiting for deportation. Oh dear. The idea of cooling your heels in an ICE brig, along with the thousands of new enforcement agents should bring illegal immigration to a trickle. What is it, day 6?
cracking down on employers
This is an interesting idea, oxide. It’s interesting that it’s not part of the president’s package of initiatives.
“So it’s fair to say that our economies are entwined, and we need to keep upping our game both bilaterally and with partners across the region through agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership or TPP. Australia is a critical partner. This TPP sets the gold standard in trade agreements to open free, transparent, fair trade, the kind of environment that has the rule of law and a level playing field. And when negotiated, this agreement will cover 40 percent of the world’s total trade and build in strong protections for workers and the environment.”
~Hillary Clinton, Australia 2012
“day 6?”
And transparent as can be it would seem. No ambiguity.
I’ve been following the Presidential memos on the whitehouse website. They are all concise. So far, limited to one page.
Hey Mighty Whopper, if you were an employer and the guys at the coffee shop were all talking about their recent visit from ICE, what would your strategy be?
“Path for those in the country illegally.”
That doesn’t change the path. If they want to become citizens, they follow that path. If they work so hard, as the pro-immigration folks like to say, then let their employers sponsor them for citizenship.
I’m not sure what you’re getting at, Mr. Whopper. Perhaps you think that ICE will start nationwide raids without warning so that they’ll have the element of surprise. Is that it? So that would explain why Trump mentioned building a wall every day during the campaign and never vilified employers who broke the law once?
So Hillary praised the TPP. Meanwhile Trump hired illegal construction workers, manufacturers his neckties in the third world, bring in waiters and kitchen staff from Europe or wherever for his resort. None of that bothers his adherents.
That doesn’t change the path. If they want to become citizens, they follow that path.
I’m not sure what you’re getting at with this statement. Do you think that that’s people meant when they answered the poll question?
Mr. Trump is your President for the next 8 years. And you’re going to love it.
We’ll have to wait and see Whopper. I am only thinking that law enforcement people already have the signals they need to enforce the law. I rather expect they feel they have been restrained for some time from enforcing the law.
You still should apologize for your whopper a few days ago, unless I missed it.
Nobody came forth with any evidence that I was mistaken. And how exactly should I apologize to the president? Should I use Twitter and should I mention Blue Skye and the HBB?
Indeed we did. You are apparently suited in teflon. Is your memory that short?
It’s possible that it was posted after I stopped reading for the day, but I doubt that any of the Whopper people would make the effort to find and present evidence.
Mikes Whoppers….. “Tall Tales Are Our Specialty”
Gwyneth Borden, executive director of the Golden Gate Restaurant Association, tells the EB Times, “We’re at this precipice where the model of the full-service restaurant is being pushed to brink.”
Psst, Gwyneth, your customers are spending every last cent on housing.
Funny how fast a 130K software engineer paycheck can go down the drain after paying taxes, the Silly Valley mortgage payment and the lease payment on the Audi.
Try pulling alimony off the top.
I think at that point they throw in the towel and ask for a transfer to somewhere less expensive.
We’ll see. I’m living it right now with the $1500 room and the BMW is paid off. They were clear when they hired me it was an onsite San Jose position. But yes, it’s not sustainable long term.
Try pulling alimony off the top.
I had a co-worker living through this… the treatment he got used to make me mad too. There were four sprogs in his case and a pious wife with a fifth grade education.
and a pious wife with a fifth grade education.
OMG, seriously? I thought we stopped manufacturing those a generation or so ago… Dropped out in sixth grade to do what—start dropping kids??
“OMG, seriously?”
Yes, seriously; think flyover country.
Almost every smaller retailer I see in town has a 50% off type of banner in the window. They were not there last year.
The first link is not the NY Times.
They wrote it.
Oh whoops - sorry, didn’t see the by-line. Carry on!
“the singer has had to slash the asking price of his 3,147-square-foot condo, which has been on the market since October, from $8.4 million to $7.1 million.”
How much did he pay for it? Yorkville is a horribly inconvenient location. Why would he buy there?
Zillow.com conveniently doesn’t have Martin’s sale price, but they do have some juicy info.
~ Built in 2005 (peak of the bubble, Martin must have paid a fortune)
~ Offered for rent in August 2014 for $29500/month, no takers I guess?
~ HOA fee $4214/month
~ Mortgage for 7.1 million, assume 10% down and 4%:
—$710K down
—Principle + Interest $30,507/month
—Taxes + Insurance ~$4149.
This effing box of air has $8300/month carrying costs even if you buy it outright, and nearly $40,000/month if you get a mortgage. And yet no one wanted to rent it at $30K/month.
Who’d want to rent in Yorkville? Not at this price.
Wowza. Thanks for the numbers, really puts it in perspective. $8300 per month in perpetuity… he should be paying someone to take this liability off his hands, not the other way around.
We not only have a price bubble; we have a tax bubble and an HOA fee bubble too.
It is amazing how many luxury apartments come with these $100k per year carrying costs. Even at the lower end I see 1-bedroom condos with $1000-2000 per month HOA fees - how many people can actually afford that? WHERE are they getting the money? It’s not like you can get a mortgage to cover HOA and taxes. And how many foreign buyers in places like Miami are in default to their HOA because of the rising dollar, meaning higher costs for everyone else? Just goes to show the distortionary effects of the bubble go far beyond the purchase price.
For the townhomes I look at in San Jose the HOA is $250-400 a month and the taxes are around $1000. I’m currently renting a room for $1500. I’d consider buying something 3br for P&I of double that, even though in the big scheme of things yes, that’s ridiculous…but not with an additional carrying cost of close to what I’m paying now.
There are loads of apartments available all over San Jose for $1500/month or less.
https://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/apa?query=apartments+in+san+jose&max_price=1500&availabilityMode=0
OK, let me rephrase…I mean within walking distance of my job near Zanker and Montegue. A bunch of those are actually roommate ads, but yes, some are for real apartments in downtown or south San Jose. Not interesting to me. Once you have to go on, under, or over an interstate every day your life just became miserable here.
Now one thing that we might all find interesting is there IS a trailer park within the boundaries of the area I’m talking about. Awesome, right? Problem is first, you can’t rent there, you have to buy. Not necessarily a bad thing because it keeps things from getting dangerous, but it’s a downside. The critical thing is that lot rent is $1500! And of course the trailers are over 100k due to location as well, but it’s the lot rent that turns my stomach.
There used to be some docks just to the north on the south shore of the bay where you could live aboard but that’s all gone away.
I’m sure there’s quite a few within walking distance of that intersection for much less than 1,500.
Nope, not unless you count the “coder crashpads” or whatever you call them where you live in the same room with other people and share a bathroom. Also not interested in that. I get everything from Zillow mailed to me as soon as it becomes available and I check Craigslist fairly often. Since the holidays I’ve slacked off a bit though…until I see a significant drop in prices it doesn’t seem worth the time to watch it every day.
Carl honestly I wouldn’t recommend that you buy. No matter the prices, jobs in Silly Valley seem to come and go very quickly. One of these days the VC money will dry up and the Yellenbucks will dry up and there goes most of the “innovation.” I don’t know if you could retain a job long enough to pencil out buying a dwelling. but the job you have now seems like a great resume builder.
Well sit tight and keep your powder dry because prices have already fallen at a good clip in the Bay area and the declines are accelerating.
Carl honestly I wouldn’t recommend that you buy.
I agree. I just keep looking around and trying to stay informed in case things change. My preference would be to go back to China and do support work from there.
One of these days the VC money will dry up
Your prediction is correct—mostly because that is already in progress. I started hearing mutterings of this probably 1-1.5yrs ago. It continues.
Now even the F.A.N.G. gang are cutting back on hiring—not entirely, but their hiring is much more targeted rather than just anyone that they can get who meets their bar.
My forecast is that it will get a lot more interesting in tech hiring before it gets better…
My forecast is that it will get a lot more interesting in tech hiring before it gets better…
I just completed a job search and can certainly say that tech companies are still hiring, and competing for talent.
Accepted an offer with a PE-backed company, which hopefully will be a bit less fickle than a VC-backed one.
None of the companies I talked with had just recently completed financing rounds or were seeking new ones, so perhaps that has dialed back. I prefer to jump on board a company that has enough cash in the bank to pay me for a while
One of these days the VC money will dry up
That’s like saying that someday people will stop gambling.
VC money will ebb and flow, but it won’t dry up completely.
Chinese central planners and central bankers unleash a new tsunami of printing-press liquidity to juice their markets through the upcoming lunar new year holiday.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-pumps-out-more-cash-ahead-of-lunar-new-year-2017-01-24?link=MW_latest_news
It’s all fiat.
problem really is they dont have any alternative it seems.
Trump’s swamp creature Treasury Secretary rushes to the defense of the Fed. So noted.
http://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2065180/trump-treasury-chief-carefully-signals-support-us-feds
The swamp is crawling with creepy creatures. Congratulations!
He knows they need the Fed to buy up all those ZIRPy bonds. Otherwise they have pay real investors real interest rates.
Transaction fees - what a perfect way to shut down the high frequency traders and their market manipulations and distortions.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-24/trading-plunges-at-china-s-bitcoin-exchanges-after-fees-levied
Big doings in DC tomorrow, so rest up and get ready for the main event, It’s gonna be YUUGE!
For those with low self-esteem, this will be followed by a lecture from none other than Mighty Mike, who will attempt to show you the error of your ways, point out your faults and demonstrate where you are wrong. It’s a tough job, but somebody’s got to do it, and who better? The ushers will be handing out goodie bags full of nonsense and foolishness. Or maybe it’s foolishness and nonsense, I forget. But a good time will be had by all.
“The other meaningful number is 6.620. That’s the average interest rate the US government paid on its various debts in 2000, the year before the great monetary experiment of QE, ZIRP and all the rest began. When talking heads at the Fed and elsewhere refer to “normalizing” interest rates they’re proposing a return to this 6% average rate.
But of course the last time that rate prevailed our debts were just a little lower. Run the numbers on today’s obligations and you get, well, let’s see:
$20 trillion x 6% = $1.2 trillion a year in interest expense. To put that in perspective…
It’s $15,000 a year per family of four, or about a fourth of what the typical American family earns.
It’s 31% of the federal budget, which would mean massive cuts in every other spending program.
The resulting dilemma: If we hope to live within our means interest rates can never be allowed to rise. But if interest rates don’t rise, the Fed is forced to create a tsunami of new dollars to keep rates low, and must take its chances with inflation, currency war, crack-up boom, and all the other black swans that live in the land of monetary excess.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-25/2017s-real-milestone-or-why-interest-rates-can-never-go-back-normal
Part of Trump’s plan is to increase our means by tariffing the heck out of foreign products. Hopefully that applies to services too. I read somewhere that H&R Block sends their tax returns to India for cheaper processing.
Interest rates are going up. Big Lee
big lee n the general lee!
‘The resulting dilemma: If we hope to live within our means interest rates can never be allowed to rise.’
The money is never going to be paid back. Option not found.
“The money is never going to be paid back. Option not found.”
You’ve been trying to tell people this for years, and it still hasn’t sunk in. I don’t know why.
I didn’t come up with it. The Federal Reserve put out a paper in 2005 saying the US government is technically insolvent. I can only imagine how much more-so it is now.
So central banks have two options:
1) Buy up ZIRPy government and private sector bonds, including roll overs and keep kicking the can, hoping they will be dead before the party ends.
2) Stop kicking the can and take the very bitter medicine.
Unless their hand is forced (say by hyperinflation) I don’t see #2 happening. Even if bond vigilantes sell, what’s to keep central banks from buying up the bonds (other than hyperinflation?)
I really think they will continue to kick the can until it becomes too painful to continue.
“technically insolvent”
How about “willfully insolvent”. It is the result of overwhelming moral bankruptcy. It’s the only kind of government a nation of willfully insolvents is likely to have. JMO, the housing bubble is the crown jewel of competitive willful insolvency.
$20 trillion x 6% = $1.2 trillion a year in interest expense. To put that in perspective
Which is why central banks around the globe will continue to kick the can.
What’s up with Dippin Dots?
they are for renters.
“Brother Mike’s Travelin Salvation Show”
LOL. Big Lee
I was talkn to my banker yesterday and he was really pushing a HELOC over another refinance. I told to chop chop and figure something out fast. I have unopened bills all over the house. I spilled some beer on some of them.
I have unopened bills all over the house.
Let us know when you file for BK
I was in the grocery store last night, one of those grocery stores with a small branch for a local bank inside. The PA system interrupted Huey Lewis and Hall&Oates to air an ad for the bank: “Come on over to our bank branch and talk to us about a home equity line of credit, or a home refinance. How could YOU take advantage of the equity in your home? Make home improvements, go on that vacation you’ve always, pay for for college? Take advantage of the still-low interest rates! Our representatives are right here in the front of the store!”
[those weren't the exact words, but it's close. And I'm pretty disturbed that I can pretty much write their ad copy for them.]
my grocery store has a bank- seems pathetic
like Vegas
they bark at you while you wheel by
A few months ago, there were some articles about banks opening up branches directly inside of some of the large tech companies in the bay area — facebook, google, etc., specializing in mortgages and the whole nine yards.
No matter where you go, or where you turn, there’s a mortgage banker waiting for you. heh.
At HP we had on site branches of the Credit Union. Back in the the day they only had 80% LTV mortgages.
They say there is about two trillion dollars in untapped equity out there. They better hurry up and get everyone to tap that equity, while they still can. Two trillion in loans will build a lot of Detroits.
http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/refi_archives.html
Waiting for the next report from Freddie to come out to see if there is any uptick in the amount people are pulling out of their homes…I know I’m not pulling out a penny.
Don’t worry, the next “innovation” will be payday loan shark centers between the racks of cheap red wine and the bank.
Should be illegal to interrupt Huey Lewis and the News. Heart and Soul, hot loving every night, wew!
“I have unopened bills all over the house.”
Back in the day… most of the vehicles that I repossessed had a glove compartment FULL of unopened bills.
You’d think they would just toss them in the trash.
I’m sure some do. But I’d bet most in that situation are still hoping for a windfall that would allow them to get current again.
They are erecting a statue of azdude in Detroit. Thank you, azdude.
Where is our Mammoth Mountain postahhh:
California’s stormy winter sets snowfall record for Mammoth resorts — over 20 feet in one month
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-mammoth-snowfall-20170124-story.html
over 20 feet in one month ??
Yeah….HA is all curled up crying in his basement…He wanted California to dry up and die so bad…Sorry HA…Drought is over…Maybe you can pray for the Catastrophic earthquake instead…
CA is the poorest state in the US. Big Lee
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA
Perhaps the drought is not over statewide, but it officially over in Northern CA. I’ve seen recent pictures of my family’s cabin in Tahoe (lake level, but certainly not on the lake) with the snow piled higher than my dad remembers since the place was built in the 60’s.
Rafting the Truckee will be back this year!
A year ago, 68% of the state was in “extreme drought” or worse, and now it’s 24%.
A year ago 0% of the state was just fine…now it’s 35%.
Long-term CA is getting dryer. And Socal still in water deficit.
Yup. Too darn bad that they can’t build some additional reservoirs up in the hills to capture a lot of this winter’s runoff. That is really what is needed in the long term.
Otherwise, it’s nuclear plants on the coast powering desalinization plants. But we all know that will never happen.
Long-term CA is getting dryer.
These statements drive me crazy. Is the statement based on climate change prognostications (forward looking guesstimates)? Or something else (rear-looking research)?
Please give your rationale for such a definitive statement.
I recall years ago one of the forecasted impacts of climate change was increased desertification (forward looking guesstimates). Yet today, there is research showing “global greening” (increased, not decreased vegetation), with the research showing that this is primarily caused from the fertilization effect of CO2 in the atmosphere (rear-looking research).
There is a reason owners of greenhouses pump in CO2…
Here is a research paper looking back on whether CA is getting wetter or drier.
http://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/2/3/168/htm
Here is the abstract:
“Current climate change projections anticipate that global warming trends will lead to changes in the distribution and intensity of precipitation at a global level. However, few studies have corroborated these model-based results using historical precipitation records at a regional level, especially in our study region, California. In our analyses of 14 long-term precipitation records representing multiple climates throughout the state, we find northern and central regions increasing in precipitation while southern regions are drying. Winter precipitation is increasing in all regions, while other seasons show mixed results. Rain intensity has not changed since the 1920s. While Sacramento shows over 3 more days of rain per year, Los Angeles has almost 4 less days per year in the last century. Both the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) greatly influence the California precipitation record. The climate change signal in the precipitation records remains unclear as annual variability overwhelms the precipitation trends.”
And the conclusion:
“In fact the variability in precipitation has increased over the last few decades, especially in the southern regions. Because of this, only a much longer record or a larger anthropogenic signal in the rainfall records will permit detection of climate change impacts on state precipitation.”
only a much longer record or a larger anthropogenic signal in the rainfall records will permit detection of climate change impacts on state precipitation.”
Thank you. How can you possible go from a Global cooling catastrophe to global warming Catastrophe in 40 years on a planet that is 14 B years old.
Best guess on how that can happen only when scientists are looking for more grant money and or to be idolized by the ignorant.. (MS in geology with thesis on thermodynamic of a igneous plume).
And the fact that “much longer” than 100+ years is needed to come to a conclusion means that if there is any trend, it will play out over centuries.
Same ‘experts’ that told us LAST year we were supposed to be having heavy rain and snow because of El Nino and this year La Nina would make it warm and dry?
They couldn’t predict one year ahead… “experts”
Drought is over yet water rates have been increased , let no disaster go to waste.
they are really raising rates on farm water in Ventura co. CA probably use the money for new buildings with solar panels ? rebates?
I pulled most of my lawn rates are never going down. Continuous shortage ..
Rates are going up because it costs the same to run the water system, people are using less water, and the agencies are only allowed to charge based on their cost.
So, if you are selling fewer gallons of water, but have to take in the same amount of revenue, you need to charge more per gallon.
The price of water has little to do with water scarcity in much of the state.
So, if you are selling fewer gallons of water, but have to take in the same amount of revenue, you need to charge more per gallon.’
Think about this , Run it out to zero water use and what will they charge ?
Anyway Population growth will offset any conservation, not just here but as farmers ship crops over seas like Alfalfa to Saudi and China.
Think about this , Run it out to zero water use and what will they charge ?
They’ll shut down the system and people will need to go back to wells.
Just like we had at the house in which I grew up.
They’re already pumping out the central valley so much that it is causing the land to sink.
And it also causes saltwater infiltration near the coastlines, and they have to inject fresh water in those zones in order to keep the groundwater from getting too salty.
Long-term, wells cannot be counted on.
And I didn’t even mention the fracking byproduct “produced water” that they inject back into the ground.
‘apartment rents have started to soften in some big cities because of a glut of new construction geared toward urban newcomers who haven’t arrived…Area IV (-12%), Beacon Hill (-10%), and Chinatown - Leather District (-10%) saw the biggest rent declines in 2016…the map…shows a surprising amount of areas that have seen rents go down over the past year.’
‘He also said that presently, buying is often cheaper than renting because rents have become so high, but that’s likely to change as rents are cut amid oversupply of new rental housing’
In all of these markets and many others, thousands or tens of thousands of apartments and condos are under construction. If there’s an oversupply or glut now, imagine what’s to come. BTW, these percentage rent declines don’t include incentives and vacancies, which can double or triple the cut in revenue.
‘just because there are 120,000 dogs and 120,000 children in S.F., values-based comparisons are silly. The Times does imply something’s not right in the housing mix, when dropping this amazing stat: ‘For every 100 apartments in the city sold at market rates, the San Francisco school district expects to enroll only one additional student.’
Doesn’t sound like a place with much of a future.
I was thinking about when I went to California years ago. I asked the HBBers in Carlsbad what San Francisco was like, because I was headed there next. “Oh it’s so laid back and etc”. When I got there, the HBB people were nice, but I couldn’t wait to leave the next day.
but I couldn’t wait to leave the next day ??
Why ??
because SF is a disgusting hellhole and the traffic is terrible. Also the residents are either mentally ill or incredible stuck up. I avoid going to SF if I can but sometimes it’s the closest tour stop for bands I like
Most people that I know choose to not raise their kids in SF. They live there when they are young, once they have kids, they get out, and if they are wealthy might “keep” an apartment in SF, and move back later after kids.
This isn’t a new phenomenon. My great aunt moved out of SF in the 40’s down to Palo Alto to raise her family. A friend of mine moved up to Sonoma County within the past decade from SF when he was going to start a family.
My point isn’t that SF doesn’t have its filth. My wife can describe dodging homeless and human feces while making her way from the train to law school. My point is that what you describe has been happening for a long time.
http://www.sfgate.com/education/article/Lots-of-toddlers-fewer-school-age-kids-in-S-F-2533907.php
All that said, I do like to visit SF from time to time. I have fond memories of visiting my great-grandmother who had a flat near Lombard street when I was a kid. Where I now live, I can take the train right to the ballpark (a great place to watch a game), we will sometimes take the train to SF and then walk to the Exploratorium with our kids. My wife takes our kids to the ballet from time to time, and my wife and I will on occasion escape for a day or two in SF for a nice meal out and breakfast at Mama’s (fantastic breakfast place, but bring cash).
But unlike NYC (where I could easily hang out for a week or longer), a day or two is really my limit in SF. Living there doesn’t appeal to me one bit.
Pretty much exactly what I did too. Had the kids, moved the F out.
Secret Service agent under fire after posting she wouldn’t take bullet for Trump
Steph Solis , USA TODAY Published 8:27 p.m. ET Jan. 24, 2017
The Secret Service is “taking appropriate action” after a special agent wrote a Facebook post suggesting she wouldn’t take a bullet for Donald Trump if he were president.
A Secret Service spokesperson confirmed that the agency was aware of Facebook posts made by special agent Kerry O’Grady, but wouldn’t elaborate on them further because it is a personnel matter.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2017/01/24/secret-service-agent-kerry-o-grady-social-media-posts/97015422/
FYI, most of the executive branch is subject to the Hatch Act, but you are allowed to express opinions, and I think make political posts. But you’re not allowed to wear campaign gear and especially not walk around asking for donations. The Secret Service is subject to “enhanced” Hatch provisions, which is more strict about expressing opinions.
She has made a career limiting move.
My kid is military and they never express an opinion about potus
San Francisco, CA Rental Rates Crater 7% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca/home-values/
Midtown Manhattan Rental Rates Crater 10% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/midtown-new-york-ny/home-values/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-24/malls
Malls Owners Rush For The Exits As Mall-Backed CMBS Defaults Soar
Toxic mortgages everywhere of all types.
Good stuff there, thanks.
Ruh Roh….
https://www.crenews.com/general_news/general/ariz-mall-backing-753mln-cmbs-loan-gets-valued-at-18mln.html
It requires a subscription, can you tell me which mall it is? I was looking for it and found this:
https://www.crenews.com/general_news/general/ariz-mall-backing-753mln-cmbs-loan-gets-valued-at-18mln.html
‘The Foothills Mall in Tucson, Ariz., which backs a $75.3 million CMBS loan that became delinquent a year ago, has been appraised at a value of $18 million. That compares with an appraised value of $115 million in 2006, when its mortgage, securitized through JPMorgan Chase Commercial Mortgage Securities Corp., 2006-LDP8, was originated. The loan had matured last July and had been classified as being in foreclosure, according to servicer data compiled by Trepp LLC. Those data indicate that the loan has been hit with a $59.2 million appraisal reduction amount.’
‘Last year, the collateral property was 87 percent occupied and generated $5.3 million of cash flow, which was nearly 10 percent less than the amount needed to fully service the loan. The debt had been amortizing on a 35-year schedule. Occupancy as of the end of July had slipped to 77 percent.’
‘The 501,514-square-foot collateral property, at 7325 North La Cholla Blvd., was purchased five years ago by Schottenstein for $89.8 million. It was hit hard when Simon Property Group opened the Tucson Premium Outlets nearby last October. At the same time, some of its largest tenants are on leases with relatively short fuses. Among them: an AMC cinema, whose lease for 77,284 sf rolls next October, and Barnes & Noble, which occupies 40,472 sf under an agreement that runs through January.’
This is some dry cleaner action:
‘It was hit hard when Simon Property Group opened the Tucson Premium Outlets nearby last October’
‘Dead Malls’ Resulting In Big CMBS Losses - Retail - Bisnow
https://www.bisnow.com/…/us-regional-malls-backed-by-nearly-49b-in-c...
Oct 18, 2016 - As of October 2016, there is about $48.6B in CMBS loans backed by regional malls. … “A lot of malls are coming due, but the value isn’t there to refinance … The problem is once those get reappraised to get refinanced, the ..
I always wondered why commercial will allow vacancies vs lowering rents. All about the loan.
The value of a building is a multiple of the annual lease rate.
A lease can last 5-10 years or more.
A dip in rents usually lasts much less time than that.
If it was about the loan, they are usually forced to lower rents to keep paying the mortgage.
If they own the building cash, they have the power to wait out downturns. One of the richest real estate owners in Silicon Valley will frequently leave a building empty rather than lower the rent…but he also doesn’t have any debt.
Here is my read on the mall/power center trend–my opinion, no article to link.
The big problem with retail is that while retailers need a physical presence, they need a lot less retail space and more warehouse space [1. Why would Amazon be opening physical stores; and 2. ISTR that retailers have greater online sales in markets where they have a physical presence].
So, larger boxes are being split up into more than one space (space that used to house one retailer is now housing 2 or 3), and so any given SURVIVING mall is going to have a greater number of retailers.
However, in any given region, retailers will have fewer storefronts. So, the dominant mall/power center in a market will continue to grow their critical mass (a mall having more/better retailers will increase traffic, begetting even more storefronts, and higher rents per square foot), and the second tier malls/power centers will die.
When I was growing up, there were “catalog showroom” stores. They had one or two of every item displayed at the store. If you liked it, you bought it there and they would pick the item at a warehouse and ship it to your address. A couple stores were large enough that the warehouse was attached to the showroom. You bought your item at went to wait at a conveyor belt for your item to appear (much like baggage claim at the airport).
Americans Are Flipping Houses Like It’s 2006
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-25/americans-are-flipping-houses-like-it-s-2006
Here. Pass this along to Blumburg. Big Lee
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kuUMKdIS7Ks/WIgCHj3chWI/AAAAAAAAp-Q/wHu-jGxdUdEa0d3SFuWuQF_IJ3qw1HiHACLcB/s1600/MBAJan252017.PNG
This is only possible because of shoddy appraisals. Why else could you purchase a property, throw some paint and cheap materials at it, and turn around and profit over $100k in a few months time? If appraisals really worked, the property would only be “worth” the addition of what the new materials cost, if that.
Where else but here would I learn all this weird stuff ?
like “You all are gas-lighting ” doesn’t mean you’re passing gas ( my first guess) but some high privilege white male manipulation.
From SF Weekly in California.
“In conversations with folks of lesser privilege, this often comes across as gas-lighting (manipulating someone into feeling like they are the problem), or making the issue about yourself, even if that’s not what you intended.”
“Gaslighting” is an affective propaganda strategy of mass manipulation.
It’s constant loud lying for the lying sake - the goal is to utterly confuse the population into believing that “facts” and “objective reality” do not exist.
Maybe the Earth is round, maybe it’s flat. Who’s to say for sure? We just don’t know. Who are your going to believe, your Leader’s words, or your lying eyes?
For many years , this “lying as strategic asset” technique has been successfully employed by Putin, and now by Trump.
Then get back to Gaslighting classes.
an affective propaganda strategy…
An ironic mistranslation!
Just wondering, is funding in place for four years of this gig you’ve got here?
By the way, you’re not understanding gaslighting very well. Watch the movie.
@Blue Skye - “Just wondering, is funding in place for four years of this gig you’ve got here?”
Are you a Russian (or alt-right?) troll, or just misinformed? In either case, shame on you, sir.
The reality is that Russia is spending billions on its state-sponsored propaganda and online trolling. I first noticed it during early-mid-2000s, when suddenly the Russian-American immigrant forums were inundated with loudly pro-Putin posters whose sole purpose seemed to be agitating in favor of “our Great Leader”, and to also try to recruit and convince the qualified émigrés to come back to Russia.
Since then, paid trolls pretty much killed free flow of information and discussion (which was the main purpose) on Russian sites. These days, if you go to “Runet” (Russian-speaking internet), you’ll find the armies of state paid trolls who roam free, and shut down the lonely voices of disagreement.
Also, it’s becoming increasingly dangerous to post dissenting opinions, because people started getting real jail sentences for that. 2-3-4 years of jail or camps - for a “post” or a “like” or a “share”.
After they conquered “runet”, I’ve started noticing Russian paid trolls on American newspaper sites. At first, in broken English (but posing as “John from Oklahoma”, LOL), later, much more advanced. Perhaps you noticed them too?
And to this day, the absolute favorite technique of Russian state paid trolls is to deny their existence, and to blame normal people (those holding the opposing, anti-Putin views) that it’s the opposition who’s obviously “paid by Gosdep” (”Gosdep” = ГосДепартамент = the U.S. Department of State).
If only you knew, how many times I’ve seen this insulting, moronic accusation against myself and against ANYONE who dared to raise their voice against Putin - only usually it was that I was supposedly “Gosdep, employed as a propagandist by the U.S. government”, (since I’m anti-Putin and pro-democracy, LOL).
The fascism won in Russia. The dissenting voices are all by silenced.
Now, when I see the same exact disinformation and silencing techniques used by some Trump supporters - eerily similar to ones I saw used by Russian state-paid trolls so many times (including accusing the opposition of paid trolling, i.e., exactly of what they are themselves doing, which btw is Kremlin’s favorite: “do something nasty, then accuse your victim of doing it”) - what am I supposed to think?
lol. Big Lee
You’re correct, but it’s the left that uses this strategy and very effectively, I might add.
“including accusing the opposition of paid trolling, i.e., exactly of what they are themselves doing”
Amusing, in a Sophomoric way.
The world of Russian Trolls!
“I once had occasion to write that the majority of Germans support Putin’s policies. That’s how the assignment was worded — “Say that the majority of Germans support Putin’s policies and are unhappy with Merkel’s.” Where they get this from I don’t know, but I have to write about it. It’s funny to write, “The majority of Germans…”
http://www.rferl.org/a/how-to-guide-russian-trolling-trolls/26919999.html
The world of Hillary trolls
“Many moons ago, David Brock, now the head of a Hillary Clinton Super PAC, used every resource available to ruin the life of Anita Hill and anyone who supported her. He would lie, cheat, and blatantly misrepresent facts if it meant getting Clarence Thomas through the Supreme Court nomination process.
Brock openly admitted it.”
“As head of the Correct The Record Super PAC for Hillary Clinton, David Brock has launched something called Barrier Breakers — an online mob of paid trolls designed to attack any and every person who says one cross word about Hillary Clinton on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Reddit, or elsewhere.”
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/king-hillary-clinton-paying-trolls-attack-people-online-article-1.2613980
The world of Trump trolls:
Apparently it is only the Donald himself.
The world of Trump trolls - first of all, ALL of Russian trolls are working for Trump, both at home and abroad.
Second, the far-right Trump trolls have taken a page straight from Kremlin’s handbook. For example, a Silicon Valley titan Palmer Lackey, (the founder of Oculus that was sold to Facebook for $3bn), admitted that he was funding a Trump troll factory, devoted to circulating dirty made-up memes about Hillary.
In the words of Lackey’s troll organization, they were aiming to prove that “shitposting is powerful and meme magic is real”.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/sep/23/oculus-palmer-luckey-funding-trump-reddit-trolls
As for Russian trolls, they are engaged on behalf of Trump in full force. The way Trump was promoted on Russian social networks, TV and media, you’d think it was a re-election of our Great Leader Putin. Their entire troll resources were devoted to nonstop pro-Trump/anti-Hillary (& anti-liberal/anti-democratic) propaganda.
Often you could read the latest “meme” or “rumor” on Russian sites first, and then it would appear here.
Russian propaganda machine has entire divisions of English (German, etc.)-speaking trolls devoted to public opinion influence campaigns in the Western countries. And all of them were working for Trump.
But soon, cities may start running out of millennials.
Then who will play in those oh so hip kickball leagues?
softball, kickball and dodgeball are a blast. what do you have against good times? Is skiing approved by you? Dont try to control everyone.
You seem to have reading comprehension issues. Have you ever been tested?
Oh, it wasn’t sarcasm. You like the hip games.
Put a bird on it.
How did you like the film, La La Land?
“Trainspotting” author sees ‘bleak dystopia’ in real life too
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-film-t2trainspotting-welsh-idUSKBN1590MN
“In the long run it’s going to be … is there room for everyone, or just the elites? Those are the big questions we are going to have to ask ourselves.”
He seems to think that we aren’t already there.
Who started spying on us, so much so that Snowden blew the whistle?
Who bragged about being good at killing people?
Who watched over the decline of the middle class, claiming there was nothing he could do the keep jobs in the US?
I’ll give the Globalists credit. They are going full bore with their “OMG, the Nazis have taken over” when they are the Nazis. Unfortunately for them only their stooges are buying their fake news and polls. The Gold collar crowd at Davos sounded really worried, even promising the little people to do something about their concerns if they’ll come back to the plantation.
Post of the day!!
Excellent observation.
Blackstone Wins Fannie’s Backing for Rental Home Debt - WSJ
http://www.wsj.com/articles/blackstone-wins-fannies-backing-for-rental-home-debt-1485265237
From the WSJ report:
Fannie Mae has agreed to backstop up to $1 billion in debt from the country’s largest owner of single-family rental homes, the first time the government-sponsored entity has agreed to guarantee the debt of an institutional owner of single-family houses.
Fannie Mae’s involvement is a sign that it believes homeownership will remain out of reach for many Americans and that Wall Street’s housing wager will be become a long-term business, not just an opportunistic trade made after the foreclosure crisis.
The support represents a shift from about four years ago, when Fannie’s regulator blocked another government-sponsored entity from backing bulk buyers of foreclosed homes. Fannie’s support will likely make it cheaper for buyers like Blackstone to add homes in the future.
the first time the government-sponsored entity has agreed to guarantee the debt of an institutional owner of single-family houses.
I thought the argument for any government guarantees was two-fold:
1) that it encourages homeownership, a presumptive good
2) that the private market would otherwise not be willing to take on the risk of a 30yr mortgage.
Neither of these applies to rental-backed securities.
Why do they deserve any government guarantee? It does nothing to promote homeownership. Heck, the properties are already purchased, so it does nothing to promote new purchases at all!
This is a governmental giveaway to a private company, nothing else. Crony capitalism, plain and simple.
I completely agree.
Our company invested in a small pool of rental homes (several years ago). It was difficult to even find some limited amount of debt to borrow. Through some banking relationships, we were able to find some 65% LTV leverage (the banks kept the loans on their balance sheet). However, it was a struggle, personal guarantees were involved, etc.
At that time, there was discussion among mortgage brokers of Fannie/Freddie filling that financing void that existed.
Now, we find ourselves several years later, and apparently that financing void was filled, either by preferred equity issuance (American Homes 4 Rent), or other forms of debt or equity. Somehow, it must have…or we wouldn’t have so many institutional buyers of rental homes.
In other words, the free market found a way to provide capital to the industry. There is no longer a need to fill that void.
Fannie/Freddie debt being available will simply make it easier for institutions to outbid folks who would like to buy the home for themselves (regardless of where their money comes from).
This DOES NOT promote home ownership, but serves to do the opposite.
There’s not going to be any little guys buying foreclosures, fixing them, and renting them for less. No way! The Sixpack families will be sending their rent payments to Tel Aviv.
I’m thinking more of the Hamptons or wherever the Rothschild clan lives (Switzerland?). I don’t think too many billionaires hang their hats in Tel Aviv.
The large investor-class will end up with the high-grade property while taxpayers will be stuck with the boarded-up ghettos.
Government’s Fannie Mae will back PE giant Blackstone’s rental homes debt
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/25/governments-fannie-mae-will-back-pe-giant-blackstones-rental-business-debt.html
“We predict the increase in these type of government-guaranteed securities will grow exponentially in the coming four years, and the impact on the rental property market will be extraordinary,” added Roalstad. “We suspect these are the types of changes that the market is pricing in with its ‘Trump Rally.’ Shifting corporate risk to taxpayers has been a profitable business over the past few decades, and throughout history. We expect we will see more of this shift in the coming years.”
“Shifting corporate risk to taxpayers has been a profitable business over the past few decades, and throughout history. We expect we will see more of this shift in the coming years.”
This particular sentence I find amazing for a free market system.
stawks and homes are still working folks!
Corruption.
Trump Orders Mexican Border Wall to Be Built and Is Expected to Block Syrian Refugees
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/25/us/politics/refugees-immigrants-wall-trump.html?_r=0
Also, beefing up ICE and the Border Patrol. And cracking down on “sanctuary cities.”
My goodness, he’s actually going to do the things he promised during the campaign !?
He-he.
Sanctuary Much, President Trump!
Whilst Trump puts his plans into action…”Dow Jones Industrial Average Breaks Through 20,000 Milestone”
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2017/01/25/world/asia/ap-financial-markets.html
Never saw this kind of constant rigging for almost 9 years and counting.
Welfare jobs in San Diego watching the wall.
More spending, more gov.
Hope and chains baby. Hope and chains.
Finally Trump will deliver on that.
Here’s another guy that seems to be warning about the ’shadow banks’.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bove-3-reasons-mortgage-markets-are-in-more-disarray-than-2008-130804437.html
““The new qualified mortgage rules (QMR) put in place by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau demand that banks follow underwriting guidelines that effectively eliminate low-income home buyers from purchasing a home. This is particularly true if one is a first time home buyer or if one is still paying down a student loan,” he wrote in a recent note.”
““The combination of the QMR and loss of faith in the FHA has resulted in big banks withdrawing from portions of the conventional mortgage markets. They have been replaced by mortgage brokers who now are believed to originate more than 50% of the home mortgages in the country,” Bove wrote in a recent note.”
These days, mortgage brokers now originate more mortgages than banks do and that’s a “really bad situation,” Bove said.”
“Mortgage brokers do not have capital backing of any size. Thus, they must sell virtually all of their production to Ginnie Mae or with guarantees placed on the loans by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac,” he wrote in the note.”
Kingston, WA Housing Prices Crater 10% YoY As Housing Losses Ramp Up Statewide
http://www.zillow.com/kingston-wa/home-values/
Of course, Deutsche Bank is one of the biggest criminals out there, but they are calling the Chinese housing bubble as popped.
http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/01/chinas-property-bubble-cras/
One more for today. The plan is to convert everything in Australia into Airbnb rentals, instead of finding normal tenants. Hehe.
https://www.domain.com.au/news/airbnb-could-be-key-to-recouping-cost-of-investment-properties-report-claims-20170123-gtxec6/
I love it when the MSM starts bleeding from its hindquarters.
President Trump is brilliant and the MSM is clueless. What more can be said?
I heard Chris Cuomo about swallowed his tongue today.
Was it blood?
You can’t fix stupid and insane.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/01/thousands-hold-emergency-protest-support-muslim-immigration-open-borders-new-york-city/
LOL! The loonies really doubling down on their insanity.
The hideous Madeleine Albright, who as Secretary of State was responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Muslim children through her wars and sanctions under the Clinton Administration, now says she’s ready to register as a Muslim if a registry is introduced. What a total moral fraud this neocon hag is.
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/316161-madeleine-albright-on-muslim-registry-i-will-register-as-a
Further proof that the the Dems are indeed the evil party. I thought Dubya was bad (and he was), but these guys take the cake.
‘I want to touch and feel’: Online-only retailers open regular stores
Bricks-and-mortar stores are a form of marketing for web-based businesses
By Dianne Buckner, CBC News Posted: Jan 25, 2017 5:00 AM ET
Some of the most sophisticated, high-tech players in retail have decided the future of the business includes good old-fashioned bricks-and-mortar stores.
Amazon’s decision to open an experimental grocery store and three bookstores has attracted a lot of interest, but the e-commerce behemoth is hardly alone. A growing number of online-only companies are choosing to sign leases and hire sales staff.
“Not every customer wants to do something one way,” says Drew Green, CEO of Indochino, a Vancouver-based online seller of men’s made-to-measure suits that now operates showrooms in several Canadian and U.S. cities.
“We know that our customers like to buy online, but we know that there’s a whole other set of customers that prefer to have someone walk them through the process.”
That’s what Neil Blumenthal, founder of New York City eyeglasses company Warby Parker, has found.
“People were telling us ‘I want to touch and feel the glasses before buying them,’” says Blumenthal. He and his partners have opened two Canadian stores. They were among the first of the so-called e-tailers to act on the need for in-person interaction with customers, starting their real-world expansion in 2013.
Kate Hudson’s Fabletics brand, men’s wear website Bonobos and the Birchbox cosmetics subscription service are among the others to take the leap from cyberspace to actual retail space.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/online-retailers-open-regular-stores-1.3948652
Orwell’s “1984″ is the new #1 bestseller on Amazon. Are the sheeple finally waking up, not a minute too soon?
I suspect that these sales are to lefties, who think Trump is big brother. Nevermind that the previous admin spied on Americans as never before.
Or some school boards have decided to make it mandatory reading in order to encourage the younger population back to the left.
And, exactly as written in ‘1984′, our ’smart’ TVs now have cameras and microphones in them that can spy on you inside your house.
All I can say is “enjoy the show”.
After the Dow Jones industrial average surpassed the 20,000 mark on Wednesday, Mr. Trump’s staff-managed official Twitter account sent out a message declaring it “Great!” even though other presidents made it a policy not to comment on daily market gyrations.
The Chicago declaration provided a case in point. A threat to send federal forces into one of the nation’s largest cities — Mr. Trump did not specify whether he meant the National Guard, the F.B.I. or any other agency — is usually not one issued lightly. During Hurricane Katrina, Mr. Bush spent crucial days privately debating with aides whether to take over the National Guard in Louisiana.
Mr. Trump sees little need for such deliberations before weighing in. This is, as he put it in his Inaugural Address, “the hour of action.” Whether the action will now follow the words remains uncertain less than a week into his presidency.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/25/us/politics/donald-trump-presidency.html?action=click&contentCollection=Politics&module=RelatedCoverage®ion=EndOfArticle&pgtype=article
I think that perhaps their point is that the market (so far) is showing confidence in the new administration.