A Substantial Decline In California
The Voice of San Diego reports from California. “Last summer, year-over-year home prices dropped for the first time in a decade. And new data released Monday marked the 12th straight month of such drops in San Diego County’s home prices. The 19,184 homes sold in the first six months of this year mark the slowest first six months of any year in almost a decade.”
“‘At this point, you can kind of start saying, ‘What’s it going to mean for the whole year?’ said Peter Dennehy, local real estate analyst.”
“The county saw three times as much foreclosure activity in June as it did in the same month a year ago, according to data from RealtyTrac. Last month, foreclosure filings in all stages of foreclosure measured 2,564 in the county, compared to 842 in June 2006. And in June 2005, there were 317 such filings.”
“‘If foreclosures are going to stay at elevated levels, and some people are saying the resets have only just begun, we’ll know the problems are deeper than many ever thought,’ said Andrew LePage, analyst with DataQuick.”
“‘What this is largely about is a bunch of demand that’s missing because it played out prematurely in early 2005,’ LePage said. ‘People were worried about missing out, losing out. We stole demand from the future back then.’”
“Dennehy said the median and sales rates give a good picture of what’s going on in the market, in general, feast-or-famine terms, but the price indicators hide much of the actual state of the market, where homes are selling for as much as 20 percent less than they once were.”
“‘If there was a home bought in 2004, and you’re seeing it sell again in 2007, you’re going to see a substantial decline,’ he said.”
“‘In the past, economists have viewed the economy as affecting the housing market,’ said University of San Diego economics professor Alan Gin. ‘Now it seems to be the other way around this time around.’”
The North County Times. “No agents or economists interviewed in recent weeks said they expected a broad rebound in Riverside County home prices within the next year.”
“Even the California Association of Realtors, known for its perpetually cheery take on the state’s real estate market, forecast that prices will fall 2 percent this year in the state, and other economists have estimated that declines of 5, 10 or even 18 percent are needed to bring prices back into line with residents’ incomes after record appreciation in recent years.”
“Local sellers who cut their price by $20,000 have often been able to sell their houses in just a couple of weeks, agents and sellers said.”
“That’s one reason prices have fallen from 2 to 20 percent in most Southwest County neighborhoods. The price of a typical existing home in Temecula has fallen about 8 percent in the last year to $435,000, according to DataQuick. Prices have fallen 3 percent to $385,000 in Menifee and 16 percent to about $425,000 in Murrieta.”
The Union Tribune. “DataQuick has yet to tally June foreclosures, but analyst Andrew LePage says there’s no evidence yet that the surge is ending.”
“A record 532 dwellings were taken back by lenders or sold at auction in May, a slight rise over April, DataQuick reported. County foreclosures for the first five months of the year totaled 2,240 compared with 336 for the same period in 2006.”
“Rodney McHone, who bought his Oceanside home three years ago for $609,000, has put the four-bedroom house up for sale, hoping he can get $475,000 for it in a short sale. He says he knows there’s no guarantee his lender will let him stave off foreclosure by accepting a lesser price, but McHone says he has little choice as he faces mortgage payments that could soon balloon to more than $5,000 a month.”
“‘This was my wife’s dream house,’ said McHone, who is trying to work his way back up from a substantial pay cut in his job. ‘I’m not going to walk into a foreclosure. I worked too hard to build up my credit. I’m not going to let no house screw up my family.’”
The LA Times. “Southern California home sales plunged to a 14-year low in June, dragged down by growing weakness in the Inland Empire, where sales volume declined nearly 50%, data released today showed.”
“In June, sales in Riverside County plummeted 50.1%, and the median price fell 5.9% to $400,000. San Bernardino County sales fell 47.2%, as the median price was flat compared with a year ago at $365,000.”
“In Ventura County, the median price fell 6.9% to $582,000, and sales declined 27.8%.”
The Santa Cruz Sentinel. “The increasing number of high-end sales in Santa Cruz County is keeping the median home price high, at $757,000 in June, a barely perceptible dip from $760,000 in May.”
“But the number of overall sales is down in comparison to the red-hot market of three years ago, when more than 250 homes sold in June. This year’s June sales, 164, are the fewest since 2001, according to Gary Gangnes of Real Options Realty, who compiled the monthly statistics.”
“The current housing inventory is at a 10-year high with 1,292 listings.”
The Press Democrat. “Sonoma County’s sluggish housing market showed modest signs of life in June, but agents say it’s still too soon to start calling an end to the county’s 2 1/2 year market tumble.”
“Prices have fallen for 12 consecutive months in year-over-year comparisons, the longest decline since The Press Democrat began tracking home sales in 1990.”
“Inventory also continues to back up, as new listings hit a market even as buyers remain on the sidelines hoping for better deals.”
“‘Have we hit bottom? I can’t tell because you always have a spring surge,’ said Beth Robertson, an associate broker in Rohnert Park. ‘But what I thought was positive was that this might be the beginning of the end of the downward spiral.’”
“Total sales were 20 percent off last June’s pace, when 435 homes sold. That’s a sharper drop than May’s 15 percent decrease, and second only to April’s 21.5 percent drop compared to 2006. That tells some brokers that what the market really needs is for buyers to wake up and realize how good they’ve got it.”
“‘This is strongest buyers market that we’ve seen in eight years,’ said Ross Liscum, co-owner of Prudential California Realty. ‘We just can’t seem to get the buyer to acknowledge they’re in the driver’s seat.’”
“Liscum blames this condition in part on the media’s ‘doom-and-gloom’ headlines, while Robertson said she’s seeing plenty of activity in homes that are priced right.”
“A recent home in Rohnert Park priced in the high $400,000s was scooped up after a $40,000 price reduction, she said.”
“The number of single family homes for sale in June increased by 4.9 percent, to 2,568. At the current rate, it would take 7.4 months to sell that many properties.”
“‘This is not a market for all sellers,’ Rosa said. ‘A lot of sellers can’t stomach this market.’”