A Reality Check In California
Inman News reports on California. “New-home sales dropped 27.8 percent in July compared to July 2006, the California Building Industry Association reported today, and new single-family sales fell 20.3 percent, with median new-home prices dropping 4.8 percent and median new single-family home prices falling 8.6 percent.”
“Eleven of 29 regions in California had double-digit percentage declines in median new-home prices in July compared to July 2006, according to the latest CBIA/Hanley Wood Market Intelligence New Home Sales and Pricing Report, with data not available for three regions.”
“Among markets with 100 or more new single-family sales in July 2007, median prices dropped 27.6 percent in the Los Angeles-Long-Beach-Glendale area, 12 percent in the Stockton area and 10.8 percent in the Fresno area, according to the report.”
The Sacramento Bee. “Sacramento’s 2-year-old real estate downturn has a good chance of hitting bottom in 2008, banking and building industry analysts told struggling area builders gathered Wednesday in the capital.”
“Sacramento’s journey to recovery has ‘been a longer road that I thought,’ said Steve Smiley, a managing director for Hanley Wood. Smiley predicted that builders are likely to end this year with about 9,000 new home sales in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties. That’s down considerably from his prediction a year ago that 2007 would end with up to 11,500 sales.”
“Through July, builders sold 5,068 homes in the six-county region, Hanley Wood reported, compared with 6,175 the first seven months of last year. During the recent housing boom, production peaked at nearly 18,000 homes in 2004.”
“Orange County economist and real estate agent Gary Watts predicted that if the Fed cuts continue, mortgage rates will fall on a majority of loans to 5.5 percent by Christmas.”
“Yet a real estate turnaround may be slower coming to Sacramento than other parts of California, he said. ‘It’s not going to happen overnight with you folks. It’s going to drag along for you a little longer than the rest of the state,’ Watts said.”
The Union. “A developer of a south county subdivision is downsizing his original housing project to meet the demands of a changing real estate market. The one-time luxury housing development is now being repackaged as a subdivision for smaller, lower-priced homes and senior apartment complexes.”
“Dave Snow, president of DAS Homes, is bypassing his original plan of two-story custom homes with pricey doors and granite countertops priced between $495,000 to $860,000 for smaller single-story homes with tile countertops priced at $450,000 to $600,000.”
“‘There’s a lot of people just as happy with tile countertops if it can save them money,’ said Mimi Simmons, who is handling sales for Saddle Ridge.”
“Snow said he will keep a watchful eye on the market, and if it continues to show stagnant signs, he would have to re-evaluate his plans for the site.”
“‘Ultimately it’s my responsibility to be open-minded and meet the demands of buyers. If the community needs housing, that’s our goal. I’m not going to build a project out if there’s no buyers,’ Snow said.”
The Orange County Register. “Sales contracts for new homes fell almost 40% in Orange County in July, led by a large drop in sales of new condominiums….according to Hanley Wood Market Intelligence of Costa Mesa.”
“Buyers signed 185 sales contracts in July, compared to 307 in July 2006, the research firm reported. It was the lowest monthly figure so far this year.”
“‘I think it was July where we really stated to feel the problems associated with the subprime (loans),’ Hughes said. ‘That affected the contracts.’”
“Condo sales dropped nearly 60%, falling to 55 units going into escrow. Buyers also signed 43 contracts to buy townhomes or ‘plexes’ (such as duplexes and triplexes), down 42% from a year ago.”
The Union Tribune. “Mortgage and real estate brokers say that the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut a key interest rate will help some homeowners pay off their bills instead of going into foreclosure.”
“But most say that the interest rate cuts and legislative reforms will not immediately revive the real estate market. Instead, home prices and sales will stagnate or decline deep into next year, with no recovery until late 2008 or early 2009, they say.”
“‘I believe the market will weaken more in the next few months, and it may weaken over the next year,’ said Gary London, president of the London Group of Realty Advisors in San Diego. ‘If the economy recesses, all bets are off,’ he said.”
“The White House yesterday appeared to soften its opposition to a congressional initiative that would allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to temporarily buy, bundle and sell as securities loans exceeding $417,000.”
“Although such moves will benefit people hoping to buy into high-priced San Diego County, they will not spark a quick turnaround in the market, many mortgage and real estate brokers said.”
“‘This will help people coming into the market to buy homes,’ said Jan Wright, a San Diego real estate agent, who specializes in selling foreclosed or distressed properties. ‘But adjustable rates are going to go up no matter what. Anyone who has two-year, three-year or five-year adjustable notes is going to get hosed no matter what.’”
“‘The whole point of those products was to refinance when the home appreciates in value. But homes aren’t appreciating,’ she said.”
“Wright said she is seeing sharp cuts in home prices, which she expects to continue. She just helped sell a home for $350,000 that was purchased a year ago for $395,000.”
“‘The guy, who had a two-year adjustable rate note, was looking at a homeowner across the street who had just brought his sale price down by $200,000 and another neighbor who was going into default, and he figured he would sell his house and just rent until the market settled,’ Wright said.”
“Mary Otero Gonzalez, president and chief executive of the San Diego Home Loan Counseling and Education Center in North Park, said she didn’t believe the Federal Reserve’s action would help thousands of homeowners with little equity who are struggling to pay adjustable subprime loans.”
“‘If their loan is upside down – where they owe more than it is worth – it will be difficult for them to refinance,’ she said. ‘They probably won’t be able to.’”
The Voice of San Diego. “The success of the housing market earlier this decade inspired Californians, business-inclined and otherwise, to enter the industries tied to its booming ascent, even after it started to show signs of slowing.”
“But a plummeting number of home sales, dropping prices and increasing foreclosures have left the real estate-related industries reeling of late.”
“Local economist Alan Gin delivered a speech to a group of Realtors recently, telling them about the industry job losses in the county, and was shocked when the crowd began cheering.”
“‘It’s not good because we’ve got fewer jobs out there, but some people in the real estate industry might argue that it’s a good thing,’ Gin said. ‘Some people during the real estate boom just thought it was a way to make quick money.’”
“‘[The job loss] is almost a healthy thing,’ said Realtor Lynn LaBreche Hamilton. ‘It kind of weeds out people that maybe weren’t the strongest agents. Back then, everybody had a sister who sold real estate.’”
“One self-employed loan processor in North County who’s been in the industry for a dozen years said the slowdown in work means she’s headed for foreclosure on her own home. She asked to remain unnamed so that the few clients she still has don’t disappear entirely.”
“In 2005, she made $120,000 processing loans for several mortgage companies. Last year, her income was about one-third of that. And now, she said, her income has dwindled to almost nothing.”
“She made enough to buy a condo for $309,000 in 2005, and to rent office space for her business. Her monthly mortgage payment is $2,300, she said, nearly six times what she earned last month. She’s assessing her options to get out of the condo and thinks she will probably end up foreclosing on it and moving in with her boyfriend.”
“She moved to San Diego from Massachusetts with a degree in communications more than a dozen years ago. When she arrived, she did what she called the ‘move to San Diego and don’t know anyone’ jobs — assistant to a school photographer, door-to-door restaurant coupon sales. Those aren’t an option now, she said.”
“‘Absolutely not,’ she said. ‘I’m 40 years old — I’m not going back to selling coupons door to door.’”
“Mortgage processing was her ticket out of those jobs, so she believed. But her financial livelihood was doubly tied to the housing market, in her job and in her La Costa condo, which she doesn’t expect to get more than $260,000 for if she were to sell.”
“‘A lot of my colleagues that are in title companies are being laid off,’ he said. ‘Direct banks, lenders and other mortgage companies are closing down, because they don’t have the products anymore.’”
“And the people who were once flying high are stuck now, he said.”
“‘There were a lot of people who were making a lot of money and not doing much work,’ he said. ‘And now they’re realizing that they’re not going to make $10 or $15K a month at a regular job, even if they have a Ph.D., so it’s a reality check for them.’”