The Housing Bubble

The San Francisco Chronicle reports from California. “A year and a half ago, Saverio Bellomo and his wife, Amy Robinson Bellomo, thought about selling their house. A real estate agent urged them to list it at $930,000. They decided to hold off for a while. Big mistake. Today, their two-story stucco house in American Canyon is on the market for $868,000.”

“‘Obviously, we’d love to sell high but we have to be realistic,’ said Robinson Bellomo, who has lived in the house since it was built five years ago. ‘The market isn’t what it was a year and a half ago.’”

“When the Bellomos bought their house in 2002…they paid $424,000. The Bellomos…upgraded cabinets and added granite in the kitchen, placed an inlay in the foyer’s hardwood floor and added marble and granite slabs in the bathrooms.”

“Saverio Bellomo got his dream library-study with built-in cabinets and the couple added expensive Venetian plaster to many of the walls in the house. The same high-end cabinets and granite countertops used in the kitchen were installed in the laundry room. Every closet got a built-in closet organizer. New built-up baseboard and crown moulding was installed throughout the house.”

“The Bellomos declined to say how much they paid to make the renovations but admitted that even if the house fetches full price they won’t break even. ‘Upgrades are very difficult to value,’ said Napa Valley Realtor David Barker. ‘So much of what people do to their homes they won’t get a return on.’”

The Sacramento Bee. “In the Sacramento region last year, about one of every six homeowners spent more than half his or her gross income on housing, according to a Bee analysis of new census data. That’s 30 percent higher than the 2005 rate, and almost double the 2000 rate.”

“Due largely to an adjustable-rate mortgage, the Cavanesses’ house payments had grown $200 a month, to $2,300 including taxes and homeowner’s insurance — about 60 percent of their $3,800 monthly gross income. Ultimately they defaulted on their loan and last week their home went up for public auction.”

“‘I feel like someone said, ‘Here’s a shovel. Dig yourself a hole,’ Christina Cavaness said.”

“Shortly after they bought their Orangevale home, in 2001, increasing housing prices presented that opportunity to use equity in their home to supplement their income. It worked well for several years. The family refinanced their house at least twice, David Cavaness said, as its value increased. Their cycle became build equity, cash out, repeat.”

“‘We paid off two cars,’ Christina Cavaness said. ‘We paid off some credit cards. We were just trying to survive.’”

“The Baileys made the mistake of refinancing at the height of the housing boom. Now, their mortgage payment is set to increase in October from about $2,700 to $3,400. During a slow month, that’s about half their income.”

“Mary Bailey now knows the monthly payments will increase even more — every six months, according to her reading of the loan. And the property values in the couple’s North Natomas neighborhood are falling, so they figure selling won’t even cover their debt.”

“‘I think everybody is to blame,’ Mary Bailey said. ‘Us for signing the documents. Shame on us, we shouldn’t have. But (the lenders) have also helped to create the problem.’”

The Ventura County Star. “Ventura County’s foreclosure sales spiked 784 percent to 548 from January to June, compared with 62 for the same period a year ago — according to the Real Estate Research Council at California State Polytechnic University, Pomona.”

“Kay Wilson-Bolton, broker in Santa Paula, has dealt with 38 foreclosed properties from February through mid-September, ranging from a $230,000 condominium in Port Hueneme to a $1.15 million house in Simi Valley.”

“‘There’s a flood on the way,’ she said.”

“For Alvarado, it was a combination of many factors that cost him. The maintenance technician bought the home in December 2002. He scraped together the $2,700 monthly payment by pooling resources with several other adults living in the house.”

“But he later took out a $100,000 home equity loan to pay for various expenses, including property taxes. ‘The money went fast,’ he said.”

“‘I feel bad, but I don’t have a choice,’ said Alvarado, who has to move by Oct. 18. ‘I want to keep my home, but it’s too late.’”

“‘Sylvia,’ a Ventura County resident who asked for anonymity…and her husband purchased their house nine years ago for about $200,000. They borrowed against it a couple of times for upgrades and to start a business. When the business failed about two years ago, Sylvia became a Realtor. In early 2006, they refinanced again in a subprime loan.”

“When the interest rate adjusted, their payments ballooned from $2,000 to $4,150 a month. The family could not keep up. As the market softened, members became ‘upside down’ on their home, owing more than what they could sell it for.”

“Sylvia and her husband decided foreclosure was the most viable solution. Her family moved out of their home July 1. Their monthly rent of $1,800 is much more manageable.”

“‘I’d rather rent a home that’s nice and be comfortable, than own a home that’s a burden and struggle,’ Sylvia said.”

“In most markets, a spike in foreclosures provides a better opportunity to score a deal on a house, but it is not necessarily the case in Ventura County.”

“Erik J. Beckstrom, an auctioneer who handles trustee sales, has seen a growing crowd congregate at public auctions held weekdays outside the Ventura County Government Center. There’s been a 50 percent increase in trustee sales during the past three months, he said.”

“But bargains are difficult to find as banks try to recover the total amount owed on homes, leaving a small margin of potential profit for people interested in capitalizing on an investment.”

“Dan Bruce was hoping to bid on a home for his daughter in his housing development. At most, he was planning to bid $1.25 million on a home that he estimated had a market value of $1.75 million to $2 million. Bruce thought the asking price of $1.3 million was too steep, considering it was a blind purchase.”

“He learned the house had been trashed by its former owners, and he had no idea how much he would have to pay in back property taxes. ‘Wait until 2009, it’ll be $800,000,’ another person half-jokingly told him.”

“Dave Kingston, a real estate investor from Oxnard who has been flipping homes since 1971, regularly attends the auction sales in hopes of scooping up deals.”

“But with four unsold homes in his inventory, Kingston is hesitant to buy more. He says he’s discounted most of the properties to a point where he might lose money when they sell. He also expects home prices to drop 10 to 15 percent in the next six to eight months.”

“‘This market is unbelievable,’ he said. ‘There are so many houses for sale.’”

The Union Tribune. “Leti Moreno recalled getting caught up in the excitement yesterday as she bid on a three-bedroom Encanto townhome during an auction of new dwellings built by D.R. Horton.”

“Moreno, who rents in the College Area, said she offered $230,000 for a three-bedroom unit. On the advice of her real estate agent, she stopped bidding when the price climbed higher. The unit finally sold for $250,000, she said.”

“‘It was a little overwhelming,’ Moreno said outside the auction. ‘You know how fast those auctioneers talk.’”

“Real estate agent Steven Moran said fast-paced bidding can be confusing. Some bidders weren’t aware that properties have unpublished minimum reserve prices that may be higher than the starting bid, Moran said.”

“Moreno said she could afford to wait for a better deal because, with the housing boom over, home prices have begun falling in San Diego County. ‘We are in a different market,’ she said.”

Inside Tucson Business reports from Arizona. “University of Arizona economist Marshall Vest looked around the room at the Arizona Inn before delivering an economic update last week. ‘Does anyone know a good joke? We need to lighten things up a bit.’ No one offered, so Vest continued.”

“‘The economy is losing momentum,’ he said. ‘Business confidence is plunging, housing is still in a recession – and could be for a while still – and the labor market is deteriorating.’”

“Vest released the latest Business Leaders Confidence Index, showing it fell 8 points. The index, released at the start of each quarter, measures business leaders’ expectations for the next three months. Taken by components, business leaders, both in Tucson and statewide are not optimistic in any one of six categories.”

“‘Anyone have a joke?’ Vest asked a second time.”

“He believes a housing recession has been prolonged and no foreseeable end at this time. ‘We had just an inventory problem with housing before,’ Vest said. ‘Now with the credit crunch we have an even bigger problem in housing that will take longer to turn around. The asset bubble has burst.’”

“The biggest problem of a lingering housing recession, he said is that it was the housing boom that really fueled growth for several years in Arizona.”

“‘Housing accounted for 25 percent of all new jobs in Arizona,’ Vest said. ‘Tucson is selling 13,000 homes annually and there is an eight month supply of housing on the market.’ All those factors in housing are leading to price declines.”

The Arizona Republic. “In a new sign of Phoenix’s slowing housing market, the city’s Development Services Department plans to cut about 10 percent of its staff in coming months for lack of work.”

“‘We experienced a very significant downturn in July and August,’ said David Cavazos, a deputy city manager. ‘There’s a large inventory of existing homes, and whenever that happens, there’s a likelihood that there will be a slowdown in new home construction.’”

“Development Services Director Lionel Lyons said Phoenix officials expected that staff cutbacks would be necessary at some point given the cyclical nature of the housing industry. ‘There’s no conceivable way that the 2004-05 levels could continue without having a downturn,’ he said.”

“During the first six months this year, the number of net new housing units declined in Pinal County, according to data from the Central Arizona Association of Governments.”

“There were 5,152 new houses added in the year’s first two quarters, compared to more than 7,700 in the first two quarters of 2006.”

“‘The declines in completions for the first two quarters in 2007 weren’t as deep as I’d thought they might have been,’ said Jack Tomasik, planning director for the governments association.”

“Though the Valley’s housing market has cooled, it remains one of the nation’s top five markets, said R.L. Brown, publisher of the Phoenix Housing Market Letter. Homebuilders are not likely to stop working.”

“‘Builders are going to bring on new subdivisions,’ he said. ‘It’s going to be a continuing thing.’”

The East Valley Tribune from Arizona. “The Queen Creek region of Pinal County is continuing to burgeon with another new home development under way, even as many area homeowners struggle to sell their properties in a down market.”

“National builder Shea Homes recently opened Cabrillo Canyon, a 107-home development. Canada-based builder Mattamy Homes has started work on 250 homes in two subdivisions in the area. Property owner Magellan Partners Queen Creek LLC is planning a subdivision of 61 custom homes. And Shea is working on a more than one-square mile development that will have nearly 2,400 homes.”

“Homes in Shea’s Cabrillo Canyon will range in size from 1,501 to 2,470 square feet with prices starting from the $130,000’s. The houses are one- and two-story with three to four bedrooms and two to three bathrooms.”

“With the housing market still deteriorating, some stymied house sellers have stopped holding out for a sale and are veering down a different path — becoming a landlord.”

“Would-be landlords may get more than they bargained for. ‘You can’t just sit back and collect rent,’ said author Janet Portman. ‘You’re in for a steep learning curve, and you could easily get into huge trouble.’”

“Renting out a home also has financial implications. Homeowners often won’t be able to command a high enough rent to cover the entire monthly mortgage payment, Norton said. A recent client of Norton’s had a roughly $2,400 mortgage payment but could only get $1,450 in rent.”

In Business Las Vegas from Nevada. “Last week Gov. Jim Gibbons…called for an Oct. 4 economic summit on housing, and Buckley convened a special subcommittee on mortgage lending. In his speech, Gibbons talked about how foreclosure filings have more than tripled since last year and pointed out that during the first six months of 2007, Las Vegas had one foreclosure filing per 31 households.”

“‘Foreclosures are putting downward pressure on home prices,’ Gibbons said. ‘In Southern Nevada, home inventory is at historic levels and 46 percent of those homes are empty. That is negatively impacting home values. For every one percent decline in housing prices, that costs single-family residential property owners $800 million.’”

“There are mixed feelings about how far government should go in helping those who take out loans they can no longer afford.”

“‘Michael Krein, president of the National REO Brokers Association, handles foreclosures in Las Vegas. Krein said he believes in letting the market readjust on its own without a bailout. Most of the foreclosures he handles involves speculators and the homeowners who got hurt are adults who should have known better.”

“‘If you bail out the market with cheap financing, prices stay artificially high,’ Krein said. ‘Just let the market readjust and people will be able to afford a home again.’”

“Who would have thought it? The price of land is so high that some developers in Southern Nevada said they are finding better opportunities right now in California. That was one of the surprising revelations in a recent forum on mixed-use development.”

“‘There is a lot of land out there, but it is way too expensive,’ said Michael Newman, senior VP with the Trammell Crow Co. in Las Vegas. ‘Unless, we see some adjustment here, I have grave concerns.’”

“Newman said there are many landowners who have speculated and questions how long they can hold out given their carrying costs. He said he’s seen land off the Las Vegas Beltway that is priced at $1.3 million an acre and there is no use that would support that.”

“‘It is going to be an interesting dynamic to watch,’ Newman said.”

“Some panelists suggested that some of those land owners and smaller developers are going to lose their properties over the next two years.”

“Douglas Crook, managing director of Christopher Commercial, which is developing lofts, said there are going to be challenges in closing sales given what’s happening with the housing credit crunch. Lenders are tightening up on jumbo loans of more than $417,000.”

The Review Journal from Nevada. “The end is near for so-called stated-income mortgage loans in Nevada because of a consumer protection law enacted earlier this year, some mortgage lenders say. Assembly Bill 440, sponsored by Assemblyman Marcus Conklin, contains a provision that makes stated-income loans a crime, according to some legal interpretations.”

“‘You have an obligation Mr. Bank or Banker, to verify that the story you’re being told (about the buyer’s income) is true,’ Conklin said.”

“Nevada Mortgage Lending Commission Joseph Waltuch has already issued written guidance that his office will not take action against mortgage brokers who collect evidence about a borrower’s ability to repay when documents aren’t available to verify the all the borrower’s income.’

“But critics say that hasn’t persuaded lenders on Wall Street and big banks, who still believe that buying stated-income loans may become a felony in Nevada.”

“Given the possibility of jail time, ‘nobody is going to do that,’ said Brock Davis, president of the Southern Nevada Chapter of the Mortgage Bankers Association. ‘The risk is too big.’”

“Many people who took out adjustable rate loans during the housing boom are already facing the possibility of not being able to make their monthly payments when the interest rates are reset higher, Brock said.”

“The new law could make it even more difficult for many of those homeowners to refinance their mortgages, because they won’t be able to offer proof of income, Davis said. To sell, these homeowners often must write a check for the difference between the amount owed and the amount the house is sold for.”

“For many of the homeowners that get caught by higher mortgage bills, foreclosure will be the only other option, he said. ‘That’s the big wave of foreclosures that’s about to happen,’ Davis said.”

“Bill Ochs, owner of Nevada Mortgage, and other mortgage lenders note that Wall Street has stopped buying so-called ‘liar loans’ and curtailed other lax lending practices.”

“Conklin said increasingly conservative lenders and mortgage loan investors — but not the bill he sponsored — are making it harder to get mortgage loans in Nevada. ‘Some of these loans aren’t going to be made anymore. They’re just bad investments,’ Conklin said.”

The Press Register reports from Alabama. “Two years of slow sales have killed many new condo development plans and put others on hold. The inventory glut — almost 3,000 units for sale on Alabama’s Gulf Coast, has kept bankers away and Realtors hunting for buyers. ‘I think it’s going to be an investor market for the next 12 months, and we’re going to see some pretty serious bottom feeding,’ predicted broker Arthur Hood in Birmingham.”

“It could be two years before the market changes, and that’s barring any major hurricane, according to Hood. ‘The market couldn’t continue going like it was,’ he added. ‘We saw stuff literally triple in price’ as few as two years ago.”

The News Journal from Florida. “Like many home builders, Dallas-based Centex Homes is trying to remain profitable, particularly in the Volusia-Flagler market, in the face of a disastrous housing market.”

“Its Jacksonville-based North Florida division is pressing on with three condominium communities in Flagler County, company officials said earlier this month.”

“‘We’ve taken early actions to improve our competitive position in every local market,’ said Carl Holman, operational marketing manager in Jacksonville. ‘This includes evaluating every project in every market and making prudent long-term decisions.’”

“‘We tried to put some deals there that didn’t work out,’ said Brett Lundequam, president of Centex’s Orlando division. ‘For every 10 projects we put our name on, maybe only two will stick.’”

“Other home builders besides Centex are backing out of land deals, said Costa and commercial Realtor Roger Baumgartner. ‘A lot of builders are just walking away, absolutely,’ Baumgartner said. ‘That’s not a good thing.’”

The News Press from Florida. “With its new advertising campaign and attention-grabbing slogan — ‘The End is Near,’ Engle Homes is spreading the word that the days of declining prices for its existing housing stock are reaching an end.”

“The print and electronic media ads are intended to make clear that rock-bottom has been hit and the existing inventory is shrinking, said Bruce J. Hershey II, VP of sales and marketing. ‘Once it’s gone, it’s gone,’ he said. ‘It’s a buyers market. The market is going to come back and once it does and there’s no more inventory, you’re not going to be able to come into a sales center and negotiate. Prices will never be lower. Incentives will never be higher. The end is near. Now’s the time to buy.’”

“Q: Why did Engle Homes initiate the campaign?”

“A: ‘There are a lot of people out there asking, ‘Should I buy now, should I wait, are prices going to continue to drop?’ The answer is no, it’s over, prices are not going to go down any further. Incentives are not going to get any better. Now’s the time to buy. That’s what we want to make sure that we educate the customers about — that it’s not going lower. It can’t. I can’t do it anymore. We’ve reduced the prices of the homes as low as we can. … Forget about the bad press, because there are a lot of good things.’”

“Construction superintendent Dan Bickes was glad to leave the Michigan rust belt five years ago for a six-figure job running condominium projects in Florida.”

“But after working at three different condo sites in Volusia and Flagler counties, he can’t find a construction job that will pay him $100,000 or more, so Bickes and his wife, Dixie, are packing their bags for an Atlanta suburb.”

“‘There are no more high-rise projects coming on line this year, and it doesn’t look like there will be any more for years and years, so we’re getting out,’ Bickes said. ‘It’s very disheartening.’”

“The Bickeses are not alone. More than 13,000 people left Volusia and Flagler counties for other states last year, twice the flow of earlier years, according to the Internal Revenue Service.”

“‘My feeling is there’s a big potential problem in the soft real estate market,’ said Chris McCarty, who supervises a statewide consumer confidence survey at the University of Florida. ‘A key part of our economy is based on people being able to move. If people can’t move, then the economy suffers.’”

The Wall Street Journal. “For almost a century, Florida has been a magnet for mobile Americans. The state’s plentiful sunshine and open space has attracted “snowbirds” fleeing winter, retirees living out the last chapter of their lives and down-on-their-luck workers in search of jobs.”

“Florida has become a less-appealing destination. Moving company Atlas Van Lines brought 6,700 families into Florida last year and took 8,000 out, the first time it has moved more out than in. The number of people from other states who switch to a Florida driver’s license is down more than 8% from last year.”

“‘Growth is what Florida is known for,’ says Carl Hiaasen, the Miami Herald columnist. “Florida is in the business of cramming people into real estate for absurd prices.’”

“A few months ago, Randy Quinones, a retired plumber in New Hampshire, was gearing up to leave the chilly Northeast and live out his days in Florida. He got ready to put his home on the market…but Florida housing prices caused him to look elsewhere.”

“‘It didn’t fit our budget, so we didn’t do it,’ he says: Instead of Gainesville or Ocala where prices were $250,000 to $300,000, Mr. Quinones moved in May into a home outside Knoxville, Tenn., that cost $207,000.”

The Herald Tribune from Florida. “The conventional wisdom is that booming growth for Florida is as sure as orange blossoms in spring and hurricanes in summer.”

“But some economists — armed with fresh anecdotal evidence — think that, at least in the short term, high insurance rates, high property taxes and heady competition from other retirement states is taking some of the wind out of the Sunshine State’s sails.”

“The old axiom says that Florida picks up 1,000 residents each day, but evidence is mounting that this long-lived assumption is no longer valid.”

“Earlier this year, Allied Van Lines reported that outbound residents outnumbered inbound for both Florida and California.’We have Realtors taking Floridians by the busload to buy in North Carolina,’ said consultant Jack McCabe.”

“Chuck and Linda Edwards are trying to snip their Southwest Florida ties while setting up shop in a rural South Carolina town that they expect to boom. They really fit into two categories because they are disenchanted Southwest Florida real estate investors as well as half-backs.”

“They moved to Bradenton from Maryland in 1993 and have spent the last 13 years investing in houses, rehabilitating them and renting them. They have done 40 in Southwest Florida, and so far, have made money on every one.”

“The only problem is that they have 11 in Sarasota and Manatee counties left to sell.”

“Late last year, the Edwardses pulled up stakes and moved to Georgetown, S.C. They will soon list a newly tuned-up, 3,500-square-foot house for $249,900. Then they will take on a bigger project: a house half-wrecked by a large pecan tree’s limbs.”

“‘Prices are pretty cheap here,’ said Chuck Edwards.”

“Sarasota Realtor Diane Christner is charged with selling the Edwardses’ leftover local listings. The couple’s previous residence, completely renovated with 140 feet on the Braden River, is listed for just under $400,000.”

“‘It has been on the market since spring,’ Christner said. ‘Obviously, we started up higher, around $500,000.’”

The Florida Trend. “Whether chased north by the heat, the hurricanes or property-tax and insurance costs, more Floridians are buying second homes in western North Carolina — or packing permanently for the mountains.”

“And Florida home builders are following their customers north. Seeking to diversify operations as they ride out Florida’s housing downturn, the builders are buying up mountaintops and developing them by the thousands of acres.”

“But they are betting on an uncertain boom. For in these cloud-laced mountains, Florida history is repeating itself in a dozen different ways. In some areas, speculators have lost money on development deals that proved too good to be true.”

“‘You see many of the same people operating under different business names in both markets, and the same speculators speculating in both markets,’ Western Carolina University history professor Richard D. Starnes says. In the 1930s, he says, ‘When the Florida market crashed, the Asheville market followed.’”

“Having experienced a seedy side to the housing boom, western North Carolina is beginning to see there can be a downside, too. Asheville-area counties that had bucked the national housing downturn began to see a slowdown this summer that in some cases is tied directly to Florida’s.”

“Every real estate broker seems to have stories of buyers who couldn’t close on the purchase of a mountain home because they couldn’t sell a home in Florida.”

“In Asheville, broker Joe Grady advises sellers not to make deals that are contingent upon a home sale in Florida. He’s even advising his brokers not to bother with Florida customers who have to sell their homes in Florida: ‘Do not get them in your car; do not play chauffeur; do not give them the tour,’ he says. ‘In our experience, it is taking them a long, long time to sell.’”

“Just ask Daniel Longen, and fiancée Susan Brady. Last year, with their Naples home on the market, the couple bought a home in the western Asheville suburbs, looking forward to four seasons.”

“When their Naples home languished on the market, ‘I woke up in the middle of the night one night and said we’re not in too bad shape today, but this could get to be a really bad situation,’ Longen says. The couple decided to put the Asheville home up for sale, too, and to live in whichever one didn’t sell. Two weeks later, they headed back to Naples.”

“‘I’m disappointed, but not terribly because Naples isn’t that bad, and people really seem to be working on the things we were critical of, like homeowners insurance and taxes,’ Longen says. ‘But those mountain vistas sure were nice.’”

What do you see in your local housing market this weekend? Industry layoffs? “Charlotte-based online mortgage broker service LendingTree announced late Friday it will lay off 255 people, or 17 percent of its workers in its mortgage origination business. Most of LendingTree’s cuts will be in Irvine, Calif., and Jacksonville, Fla.”

“The cuts reflect ‘the current realities of the market,’ spokeswoman Rebecca Anderson said.”

Lending difficulties? “Jack Haynes, executive VP with Countrywide Home Loans, said lenders are having a hard time interesting investors in purchasing the mortgages they make. ‘Things are stacking up on everybody’s shelf,’ Mr. Haynes told builders meeting in Grapevine for the Sunbelt Builders Show. ‘At a certain point that will strangle the mortgage industry if it doesn’t get some relief.’”

Or REO discounts? “In 10 of Akron, Ohio’s hard-hit neighborhoods, a report given to the city council this week said 79% of all homes sold from February to August this year were unloaded by lenders for a fraction of their value. In Akron, as elsewhere in the USA, the dumping of foreclosed homes on the market has squeezed both builders and sellers who must compete against additional properties.”

Or foreclosures? “The flood of foreclosed homes has stretched the staffing limits of the Marion County, Indiana’s sheriff’s civil division and drenched the resale market with so many properties that it has nearly dried up profits for investors who deal in homes.”

“Despite facing more foreclosures than any other county in the state, Marion County remains the only one that hasn’t capped the number of properties per month it puts into its sheriff’s sale. That’s done out of fear the county would never catch up.”

“‘If we were to cap these, it would just be chaos,’ said Shirley Challis, commander of the civil division. ‘We do not see daylight now. We are working on three sales all the time’ — the last and current ones, plus the next one.”

Or speculation? “Housing prices in the Edmonton area continue to drop. But that’s not stopping homeowners from putting up ‘for sale’ signs in record numbers.”

“‘I haven’t had a call yet and my place has been listed for three weeks,’ said Jason, who’s selling a new home for $455,000 after building it for just $270,000. ‘The market has loosened up but the boom isn’t going anywhere.’”

“Shashi is selling her home for $475,000 after buying it last year for $329,000. She only had three calls since listing the house two months ago. ‘I’m not in a rush to sell, but I can tell people aren’t in such a rush to buy either,’ she said.”

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