There’s No One Out There But Bottom-Feeders
The North County Times reports from California. “Despite relatively high February home sales and real estate agent reports about a swarm of buyer activity, North County’s housing market hit a new low in March. North County home sales posted the biggest year-over-year drop since the start of the housing recession, according to HomeDex. The area’s median sales price continued to take a beating and also showed the largest annual decline yet. In March, it dropped below $500,000 for the first time since 2003.”
“Sales tumbled 37 percent from a year ago, to 484 sales, the largest year-over-decline since sales fell off from a 2005 peak. The perennial bump in March home sales from February for North County was lower than ever recorded for San Diego County.”
“Foreclosures leaped in March, with new notices of default in San Diego County more than doubling from a year ago, to 3,116, according ForeclosureRadar.com. Last month’s inventory is still almost double that of a year ago.”
“The weak sales data in homes and continually steep decline in median price will not last for long despite a potential increase in foreclosures, said one real estate agent.”
“‘I think we’ll see it (better sales) because the pricing structure is going to force the issue,’ said Chuck Smiar, a real estate agent in Escondido. ‘There’s a lot of buyers sitting on the fence waiting for the bottom. And I think if they don’t jump in soon, they’re going to be sorry.’”
“Other real estate agents and brokers said that only certain markets have hit their lowest price points. Meanwhile, sellers in stronger markets are trying to refrain from posting their property until the market recovers. That leaves the potential for a flood of listings, they say.”
“‘We haven’t hit the terrified phase yet,’ said Shawn Harris, a mortgage broker in Oceanside. ‘The sellers are going through the seven stages of denial. … Eventually, they will get to the stage where it’s, ‘Holy crap, I’m not going to be able to make this mortgage payment anymore.’”
The Orange County Register. “Six out of every 10 Orange County homeowners who bought a home in 2006 are ‘upside down’ on their mortgages, meaning that they owe more for their home than it was worth in the fourth quarter of 2007, according to Zillow.com.”
“Nearly four in 10 who bought in 2007 were upside down by year’s end.”
“‘Eighty to 90 percent of our clients are upside down,” said Connie Der Torossian, VP of marketing and outreach at the Fair Housing Counsel of Orange County. ‘Very few have equity, so most owe more than their house is valued at now.’”
“Orange County’s median home price has fallen 19 percent since the peak price set in June, according to DataQuick. The Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index, put the Los Angeles-Orange County peak at September 2006, showing that values fell 18 percent since then.”
“Stan Humphries, Zillow’s vice president of data and analytics, noted that Orange County homeowners still are better off than others in more strapped parts of California.”
“For example, 77 percent of Stockton’s 2007 homebuyers were upside down by year’s end; 73 percent of them were upside down in Merced, Humphries said. In the Riverside-San Bernardino area, 60 percent were upside down, compared to 38 percent of Orange County’s 2007 homebuyers.”
“Mike Cocos, general manager of ERA North Orange County, noted that 34 percent of the homes for sale in the local MLS are either foreclosed properties or ’short sales.’ He said he took a listing at the start of April from a homeowner who owes $80,000 more than the home’s worth in today’s market.”
“Clemente Mojica, the housing services home ownership director, added that borrowers who used stated-income loans to buy their homes now can’t qualify to refinance before their monthly payments go up.”
“First, they now must prove they have sufficient income, something many can’t do, he said. And even if they could qualify, their lowered home value makes it impossible to get a new loan.”
“‘Who’s going to refinance them when they have negative equity, when they’re upside down?’ Mojica asked.”
“Sherrie Le Van has worked as a Realtor in Ladera Ranch for seven years. She says the market shifted in late 2005 and early 2006. Before then, she estimates that agents sold an average of two to three homes a month. Now, it’s down to one, if that, she says. LeVan says a lot of agents have had to supplement their income with other work.”
“‘Everyone’s standard of living has been somewhat affected,’ she said.”
“Before the housing market cooled, LeVan reached out to other Realtors who lived and worked in Ladera Ranch. Their association became known as the Ladera Ranch Resident Realtors Business Partners, and included 12 members. When the market took a nosedive, LeVan said, ‘A whole lot of people dropped away.’”
“Realtor Steve Pattinson now heads the group. He says that over a third of the approximately 331 listings in Ladera Ranch are either bank-owned properties or short sales. ‘People can’t compete with the short sale. Their prices are way up,’ said Pattinson.”
“LeVan says she doesn’t ask former members of the group what they’re up to these days. ‘It’s just such a personal thing,’ she said.”
The LA Times. “Grant Niman landed his dream home in Hermosa Beach after a careful six-month search. The sale price came in just under $1.4 million. Comparable houses near Niman’s pick were selling for as much as $200,000 higher in December.”
“In February, the average of median sale prices in 18 beachside ZIP Codes, including parts of Santa Monica, Manhattan Beach and Long Beach, was $1.08 million, down nearly 8.9% from August and 10.2% from February 2007, according to DataQuick.”
“Some of the biggest seaside bargains, real estate agents said, were in Huntington Beach’s three coastal ZIP Codes. Median prices peaked at $785,000 to $1.2 million in 2007, but the range had declined to $635,000 to $827,000 in February.”
“Newspaper ads for beach-area houses are beginning to echo those for properties farther inland, with headlines such as ‘$$ PRICE REDUCTION!!’ and ‘BEACH HOME STEAL!’”
“‘A year ago, bidding wars were the norm,’ said Denise X. Lavell, who runs Beach Girl Realty. ‘You’d have a buyer out there the day the property was listed. Now, people are taking a month or two months to decide.’”
“Javier and Marianne Cano recently spent nearly $1.9 million for a two-story, five-bedroom Spanish-style house less than a quarter of a mile from the ocean in Redondo Beach. Six months earlier, the Canos would have had to pay about $2 million to $2.1 million, based on comparable home sales at the time.”
“‘We got a little bit off the asking price, but we thought it was priced pretty reasonably in the first place,’ said Javier Cano.”
“‘The individuals who had the income and wealth to own in the beach areas have not seen any significant decline in their situations,’ said Michael Carney, director of the Real Estate Research Council of Southern California at Cal Poly Pomona. ‘If the economy really starts to tank, you might find more of an impact in those areas.’”
The Press Enterprise. “It was only 20 seconds into John Husing’s annual forecast on Inland Southern California’s economy when he said the word few people in the audience wanted to hear.”
“And, the region’s leading economist and a panel of housing and finance experts told a gathering of business leaders Tuesday, there are factors that, if they come to pass, could mean people will say ‘recession’ more than a few times this year.”
“‘For all intents and purposes, we have stopped growing,’ Husing said in his annual economic forecast.”
“In the 12 months from April 2005 to 2006, the two-county area gained 44,100 jobs. But from 2006 into 2007, the gain was a paltry 592 jobs, roughly the number of workers on one shift at a single large distribution center.”
“Currently, the job losses are across the board, and most of them can be traced to the slowdown in the housing market. ‘This has decimated a huge industry,’ said Steve Johnson, director of Metrostudy. ‘It’s going to be very hard to put the machine that produced this housing market back together again, and we will have future pain ahead in the resale market.’”
“Husing said the only people buying homes these days are people shopping for bargains at foreclosure prices. ‘The regular folks are on strike. They’re not buying houses,’ Husing said. ‘There’s no one out there but bottom-feeders.’”
“The current decline in median prices from the late-2006 peaks in the Inland region is something that will lead to a bit of good news, Husing said. It means that the middle-income buyer, who was virtually priced out of the market two years ago, may be able to afford a place as prices continue to decline.”
“Although, Johnson added, the days of the convenience-store clerk putting a $10,000 monthly income down on his mortgage application are probably over.”
“‘The change in the market psychology is tough,’ Husing said. ‘People will be suspicious about prices for a long time.’”
The Modesto Bee. “Property taxes are due Thursday, but Stanislaus County auditors predict a startling spike in unpaid taxes. If trends hold, about 8 percent of what’s owed won’t be paid. That’s about triple what is normal.”
“‘Eight percent is ridiculously high,’ said Todd Filgas, the county’s property tax accountant. ‘We’re having quite the excitement over here about it.’”
“More than 170,000 landowners were billed $484.3 million for their 2007-08 property taxes. Half of that money was supposed to be paid Dec. 10 and the second half is supposed to be mailed by Thursday.”
“But many property owners missed that first payment, and there’s fear that many more will ignore Thursday’s due date. Last year, 6.42 percent of Stanislaus County property taxes weren’t paid, and that was bad enough.”
“‘Since I came here in the late ’70s, it had never been that high,’ said Ray Rassmusen, who manages the auditor’s property tax division.”
“Rassmusen said the county doesn’t have easy-to-access delinquency statistics going back to the Great Depression, but auditor records show the average delinquency rate has been less than 3 percent the past 15 years.”
“Eventually, those taxes will be collected, said Stanislaus County Tax Collector Gordon Ford. Property owners who don’t pay within five years will have their land sold at tax foreclosure auctions. Last year, three Stanislaus County properties met that fate.”
“Mortgage payment defaults, however, triggered more than 2,500 foreclosures in Stanislaus county last year. ‘Banks that foreclose will make their property tax payments. It’s just a matter of when,’ Ford said.”
“Gov. Schwarzenegger spoke at a private meeting at Modesto Centre Plaza with area city council members and officials from Stanislaus, San Joaquin and Merced counties. He said cuts alone won’t solve the $16 billion deficit projected for the 2008-09 state budget, but he ruled out taxes as a solution.”
“Schwarzenegger (said) that he’s optimistic that the current downturn in housing will abate in a year. He was less rosy on the prospects for all distressed homeowners finding their way out of foreclosure.”
“‘It hits a lot of people who took a tremendous risk and knew it,’ Schwarzenegger said, describing the subprime loans that are now failing quickly, particularly in the valley. ‘Borrowers and lenders made mistakes.’”
The Sacramento Bee. “Several Sacramento-area cities stung by the real estate downturn are considering deferring developer fees as a way to stimulate the local economy.”
“‘It’s not just to see if we can get sticks and bricks up,’ Folsom Vice Mayor Steve Miklos said Monday. ‘It’s to get people back to work.’”
“A fee deferral proposal for the city of Sacramento is in its infancy, said Wendy Klock-Johnson, spokeswoman for the city’s Development Services Department. Efforts by the city attorney, treasurer and Development Services Department staff should translate into a proposal for the City Council later this year, she said.”
“Miklos says Folsom’s plan is a local version of the federal economic stimulus plan.”
“‘If we can defer some of the fees that don’t have an impact to the city until folks move in,’ Miklos said, ‘why can’t we build sooner rather than later? The benefit to the city is more properties on the tax rolls. The benefit to the builders is getting these people back to work.’”
The San Mateo County Times. “Home sales continued their downward spiral in San Mateo County in March, while home prices also plummeted in many local cities, a report revealed Tuesday. Home sales slumped 32 percent compared with March 2007, according to the San Mateo County Association of Realtors.”
“‘Housing prices are still high in relation to what most people are paid around here,’ said Stephen Levy, an economist and director of the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto. ‘The prices aren’t sustainable, and they’re still near historic highs.’”
“Levy added that many homes are not worth what they were at the peak of the market a couple of years ago, and he warned that further price erosion is on the horizon.”
“The city of San Mateo’s median price fell 18 percent in March to $789,500, partly because of a drop in prices in the Shoreview area, which has experienced a number of foreclosures.”
“The North County, where many first-time buyers stretched to buy homes with subprime loans, continued to experience significant price erosion. Daly City’s median price fell more than $150,000 to $570,000, and San Bruno dropped more than $100,000 to $634,000.”
“East Palo Alto, another area hit hard by subprime loans and foreclosures, saw the March median price plunge to $382,450, off 43 percent from last year’s mark of $675,000. The median price in Monterey County fell dramatically to $430,000 in March, down from $800,000 last August.”
The Santa Cruz Sentinel. “Home sales plummeted in Santa Cruz County in January and February. So far, 138 have been sold, down 43 percent compared to a year ago, when 243 homes were sold in those two months. March sales statistics have not been posted yet.”
“Of the 11,000 borrowers in Santa Cruz County with adjustable-rate mortgages in the last quarter of 2007, about 7.6 percent were three or more payments behind, 3.5 percent were in foreclosure and 1.6 percent had been sold at foreclosure sales.”
“The trend is up from the first quarter of 2007, when 2.25 percent were behind in payments, 1.1 percent were in foreclosure, .43 percent had been sold, and the number of adjustable rate mortgages was about the same.”
“So many borrowers need help that the Santa Cruz Association of Realtors and its Housing Foundation have scheduled three foreclosure workshops Saturday.”
“One workshop covers what can be done when a homeowner is ‘upside down.’ Others cover the foreclosure time line and loan workout options. Admission to the expo is free, and materials will be available in Spanish as well as English.”
“At least 660 people have made their opinion known on changes proposed in Regulation Z, federal rules designed to protect consumers from unfair, abusive and deceptive lending, and so far, many of the comments are critical.”
“Tai Boutell of Santa Cruz Home Finance said some of the changes make sense, like requiring the lender to determine the borrower can repay for mortgage for at least seven years and requiring brokers to disclose front-end and back-end fees.”
“‘All the regulations should focus on entrance barriers to the profession,’ Boutell said. ‘It is easy to obtain a license, and many loan officers are not even required to have a Department of Real Estate license at all. Loan officers who work for banks are not required to have a Department of Real Estate license.’”
“Santa Cruz homeowner Boone White considers the changes too restrictive and likely to make it harder to buy a home.”
“‘I understand that the purpose is to protect the borrower against unscrupulous lenders but it reads like an act to take 100 percent of the risk out of purchasing a home,’ he said.”
“‘If all loans required the documentation, it would cause folks to buy within their means, but it does not take into account situations like ours,’ said White, an attorney married to a physician. ‘We could not have purchased our home as we were just beginning our careers. Now, we are established, so we are OK.’”
“Santa Cruz resident Peter Ogilvie, president of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers…said requiring borrowers to put money for taxes and insurance into an impound account can be very expensive and could put loans out of reach.”
“He questioned the fairness of a provision singling out brokers to disclose income and not requiring the same of lenders.”
“Tom Mentzer, spokesman for Rep. Sam Farr, said Farr ‘has always supported these types of protections for homebuyers. It’s the so-called ‘liar loans’ and a lack of responsibility from a small segment of lenders that got us in trouble in the first place.’”
“Some question whether the Federal Reserve is the proper tool to enforce these protections. In the past, the Federal Reserve focused on broader oversight.”
“‘We saw a failure to enforce the rules that were in place,’ said Mentzer. ‘That, combined with a blind eye toward questionable practices, led us to where we are. It’s never just one cause. It’s too bad the alarm wasn’t sounded earlier.’”
“Susan Stawick, spokeswoman for the Federal Reserve, said staff would review the comments and determine how to proceed. To those critical of the agency’s rule-making, she said, ‘The Federal Reserve used the authority it has under Regulation Z.’”
“Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke advised Congress the final rule would be ready later this year.”