The Boom Has Turned Into A Bust For Many
The San Francisco Chronicle reports from California. “Like a brick cast from the top of the Transamerica Pyramid, national and local home prices are rapidly accelerating on their way down. The average cost of a Bay Area home dropped 17.2 percent year-over-year in February, compared to 13.2 percent in January and 10.8 in December, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller report released Tuesday.”
The LA Times. “Los Angeles and Orange County home prices were down 19.4% in February from a year ago, among the sharpest drops in the nation, according to an index released today.”
“The Case-Shiller index compares the latest sales of detached houses to previous sales, and accounts for factors such as remodeling that might affect a house’s sale price over time. It excludes foreclosures.”
The Voice of San Diego. “In another month of record price declines, San Diego County home prices dropped 19.2 percent year-over-year and 24 percent from the November 2005 peak, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index for February 2008.”
“The index tracks prices on the same homes over the years. It doesn’t measure condos or new homes. Broken into three tiers by price, the lowest tier continued to fare the worst but was followed by growing losses in the middle and high tiers, in tier breakpoints as of February 2008.”
“Lowest tier: (priced under $405,028) Prices were down 27.5 percent from Feb. 2007, down 31.6 percent from peak of June 2006. Middle tier: (priced between $405,028 and $609,200) Prices dropped 20.4 percent year-over-year and 26.1 percent from the Nov. 2005 peak.”
“High tier: (priced higher than $609,200) Prices were down 12.5 percent compared to a year earlier and 17 percent from the June 2006 peak. (Last month, this tier saw a 10 percent year-over-year and 15 percent from-peak drop, which were the larger drops yet at that time.)”
“Also this morning, RealtyTrac reported foreclosure filings for the three-month period ending at the beginning of April. San Diego County quarter one filings numbered 15,315. That marked a 48 percent increase from the previous quarter, fourth quarter 2007, and a 252 percent increase from the same quarter last year.”
“The total was more than eight times as large as the total filings recorded in the same quarter two years ago.”
The Daily Bulletin. “The San Bernardino-Riverside area ranked No. 2 nationwide in the first quarter of this year in foreclosure filings, according to RealtyTrac. Banks repossessed almost 10,000 homes in the region from January to March, while default notices clocked in at almost 23,600.”
“And buyers put money down on more than 3,700 foreclosures.”
“Real-estate expert Michael Carney isn’t surprised. ‘As more prices fall, there are more homes with no equity,’ said the director of Real Estate Research Council at Cal Poly Pomona. ‘If you have no equity in your property, and prices are falling, you have no incentive but to walk away.’”
From KSBY 6. “Half of homes up for sale in North Santa Barbara County are former foreclosures, according to the local Association of Realtors. DataQuick says it is a record quarter for default notices. In San Luis Obispo County, default notices compared to last year are up 112 percent. In Santa Barbara, it is up 141 percent.”
“According to Martha Beckman, President of the Association of Realtors, the average price of a North Santa Barbara County home is $375,000 to $400,000 dollars. Compare that to the price of $425,000 last year.”
“This because of the sheer number of homes - many foreclosure re-sales up for grabs. While prices may plummet a bit more, she suggests buying sooner rather than later.”
“‘Right now, we are close to the bottom if we’re not at the bottom, and you don’t know you’re at the bottom until it starts to come up again,’ Beckman said.”
The Tribune. “Sales of all homes in San Luis Obispo County plunged in March to less than half of what they were a year before, the latest mark of the real estate market downturn…according to DataQuick. The drop creates the county’s lowest March sales in 18 years, said spokesman Andrew LePage.”
“However, it is not the county’s lowest month for home sales historically, LePage added. That occurred this year when 178 homes were sold in January. Last month’s downward tumble comes at a time that traditionally marks the kickoff to the home-buying season.”
“‘Banks have really tightened up and are not offering what they offered a year ago,’ said said Kirk Lesh, real estate economist with the UCSB Economic Forecast Project. ‘Nowadays, you have to put 20 percent down to get a house, and not too many people have that sitting in their banks.’”
“Last month, the biggest decline was in sales of new homes, which plunged 68.3 percent year over year. The median price of a new home dropped to $439,500 in March, a 17.1 percent dip from $530,000 in March 2007.”
“For existing single-family homes, the median dropped to $480,000—10.5 percent lower than $536,500 a year ago.”
“Consumers who were once able to stretch their budget on tight incomes and low credit scores can’t now, said Steve Harding, Rabobank regional president in Arroyo Grande.”
“As well, loans that didn’t require strict research on personal income no longer exist because of today’s stringent verifications, he added. ‘There used to be ways to work around poor credit scores,’ Harding said. ‘But now, bad credit is totally out of fashion. It’s just not going to happen.’”
The Mercury News. “Bidding wars have remained common in high-priced places like Cupertino and Los Altos, where stellar school districts are the big draw. But with more than 900 houses for sale in Santa Clara County for $450,000 or less, many home buyers assumed that market was soft and are shocked to find themselves outbid on foreclosed, bank-owned properties in this price ran”
“Banks eager to unload their REO inventory - which forms a large chunk of the cheapest houses for sale in the county - have been lowering the listing prices. It’s become common to find bank-owned houses in South San Jose priced at roughly $400,000 that last sold in 2005 or 2006 for $600,000 or more, for example.”
“One San Jose resident, a mobile-home owner who has been looking for a house since February with a budget of up to $550,000, bid unsuccessfully on several short sales and half a dozen REOs before getting a bank-owned Evergreen house for $540,000 that was listed at $529,900. The buyer, who did not want to be identified, said he’s investing despite fears that valley home values may continue to fall.”
“‘I have a feeling it’s still risky to buy a house at this moment, but I want my kids to go to a good school, so I’ll take a chance,’ he said. ‘I might stay there for 10 years. I look for the long term, not the short term.’”
“Some agents who specialize in REOs said about half the buyers now scouring the market for deals on bank-owned properties are people who want to live in the homes, while the other half are seeking investment property to rent out.”
“But even at today’s REO prices, some investors are waiting to buy because they can’t get enough monthly rental income to cover their mortgage and expenses.”
“True, agent Peter Carey said, but the ones buying now are ‘gambling on better times’ in the future, he said, hoping to buy property in the $400,000s that will eventually gain value.”
The Modesto Bee. “Even during the boom years, when the housing industry was roaring and employment was growing, Northern San Joaquin Valley incomes were falling further behind the rest of California.”"Just-released statistics from the state Franchise Tax Board show that Stanislaus, Merced and San Joaquin county incomes didn’t keep pace from 1999 through 2006. Incomes in the three counties lagged about 25 percent behind the state as a whole.”
“That’s surprising considering that the valley’s economy appeared to soar during those years. But high-paying jobs apparently didn’t follow.”
“‘Bay Area folks who made the mad rush here for housing actually hurt the local job market,’ said Edward Hernandez, a human resources and business management professor at California State University, Stanislaus.”
“Hernandez said many of those newcomers quickly realized they couldn’t stand the daily commute back to the Bay Area, so they switched to lower- paying valley jobs.”
“‘Out of desperation they’d take any job they could just to get in. They really messed up our job market,’ said Hernandez, noting that starting salaries declined at some valley businesses because so many qualified workers were competing for openings.”
“The income statistics demonstrate that creating more jobs doesn’t necessarily generate wealth, said Carol Whiteside, president emeritus of the Great Valley Center. She said many of the valley’s new jobs were low-paying, entry-level or service positions, rather than a healthy mix of jobs from diverse employment sectors.”
“‘We always assume people in the Bay Area are top wage earners, but it was the Bay Area workers making lower salaries who were the ones moving here and making the those long commutes,’ Whiteside said.”
“The region’s economy started declining in late 2006 when the housing market turned. Stanislaus’ unemployment rate spiked to 11.3 percent in March, home foreclosures are at record levels and bankruptcies have risen dramatically.”
“‘The income (statistics) are going to look a lot worse the next time they release them,’ Hernandez predicted. ‘The boom has turned into a bust for many.’”