You Haven’t Seen Anything Yet In California
The Sacramento Bee reports from California. “One of the most turbulent years in a decade for Sacramento-area real estate ended in December with 2,440 homes changing hands in the eight-county region, the fewest sales since 1995 in some counties, according to DataQuick. Sacramento County’s median sales prices slipped to $280,000 during the month, down more than $100,000 and 27.6 percent off their August 2005 peaks. Those prices were the lowest since February 2004, DataQuick reported.’”
“The continuing decline in home values prompted Sacramento-based researcher TrendGraphix to declare December the ‘resurrection of the $200,000 house.’ The firm reported that 12 percent of the 13,994 homes now for sale in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties are priced below $200,000, with the majority being homes repossessed by banks.”
“A year ago just 2 percent of homes for sale in the region were priced below $200,000.”
The San Francisco Chronicle. “Bay Area home sales plummeted to the slowest December recorded in at least two decades, according to Dataquick. It was the 35th consecutive month of decreasing sales as foreclosures.”
“DataQuick said the December median was $587,500 last month, down 4.9 percent from $618,000 in December last year. It was an 11.7 percent drop from the peak median of $665,000 reached in July. For resale houses, the median dropped in every county except Santa Clara.”
“The difficulty and expense of getting ‘jumbo’ mortgages - those over $417,000 is clearly reflected in the sales results, which show 1,610 jumbo mortgage purchases in December, down 65.7 percent from December 2006.”
The Press Democrat. “Home sales usually slow over winter, but this December they nearly vanished. Only 188 homes sold in Sonoma County during December, about half the average for the month and the lowest since The Press Democrat began tracking the market 17 years ago.”
“The typical home sold for $466,500 in December, down 18.2 percent from a year ago and the first time the median fell under the half-million mark since May 2004. Prices have now fallen for 18 consecutive months, in year-over-year comparisons.”
“Housing peaked in August 2005 when the typical home sold for $619,000, ending an eight-year run when prices nearly tripled.”
“In Petaluma, Kevin and Rebecca Boesler have cut the price of their home 5 percent since listing it for sale in August. The 2,500-square-foot, four-bedroom house was originally placed on the market at $789,000. Hoping to attract a buyer, the Boeslers have reduced the price to $749,000.”
“‘It’s priced with the competition, but the market is just crawling around right now. I think the buyers are sitting on the fence,’ said Scott Rowlands, the agent from Santa Rosa with the listing.”
“The family hopes to sell so they can purchase or build a home on country property, Rowlands said. ‘So they’re willing to take a loss, but they’re going to buy something a lot cheaper than two years ago, if they can make it happen,’ he said.”
From CNN Money. “A former real estate appraiser for Washington Mutual is suing the bank, claiming she was blacklisted last year for providing a housing market forecast that was too gloomy.”
“Jeniffer Wertz says WaMu stopped accepting her appraisals in mid-2007 a month after she reported that her local housing market in California was ‘declining.’”
“But Wertz’s assessment shouldn’t have been controversial at the time. According to the National Association of Realtors, home prices in her hometown of Sacramento fell $9,000, or 2.5 percent, to $356,500 in the second quarter of 2007.”
“And most economists were already characterizing the housing market as a bubble that was ready to burst.”
“In the lawsuit…Wertz says she completed appraisals on two houses in May and then quickly got a call from a WaMu sales manager demanding she change her outlook to ’stable’ so a loan could be approved.”
“The WaMu sales manager also demanded Wertz change her appraisal process to produce higher prices for the properties she was evaluating, according to Wertz’s lawyer Stephen Danz.”
“When Wertz refused to comply, she claims the sales manager threatened to block her from doing future appraisal work for the bank. A month later, Wertz’s suit says, a third-party appraisal request assigner told her WaMu would no longer accept her work.”
The Contra Costa Times. “The early months of 2008 are expected to unleash more pain for a mortgage industry that has disclosed plans to shed more than 1,600 jobs in California.”
“Washington Mutual is among the companies that recently filed layoff notices with the state. ‘Some of them are home loan center jobs,’ said Gary Kishner, a Washington Mutual spokesman. ‘These were people involved in loan fulfillment. They did the back-end work for processing loans and things like that.’”
“Hundreds of East Bay workers involved in residential real estate transactions, financings or construction. ‘I’ve stopped looking in the mortgage area,’ said Victoria Christol, an Oakland resident. ‘With all the mortgage problems, the business is not the same as it used to be. Lenders are not issuing the same loans they did. You might find a job, but you can’t make as much money.’”
“She added that she has never seen the region’s mortgage market in such bad shape. ‘It’s going to get worse,’ Christol said. ‘You haven’t seen anything yet.’”
“Gina Cefalu, a real estate broker in Danville, said that a major rebound has yet to materialize on the horizon. ‘My sense is that this is going to go down further before it comes up,’ she said. ‘It does not look like it’s coming back this year.’”
The North County Times. “California’s economy will continue to slow, but maybe it won’t, or maybe it could tip into recession, a federal economist said Wednesday in a speech thick with caveats.”
“‘The good news this morning on the way in: oil, $90 a barrel,’ Gary Zimmerman, senior economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said to tentative laughter Wednesday. ‘Who thought that was going to be good news?’”
“Zimmerman said rising interest rates could bode ill for construction and other industries that depend heavily on credit. Bank of Escondido Chief Credit Officer Mike Churchwell said the bank no longer loans to companies that depend on a booming economy to help them cover their debt, he said.”
“‘We don’t want to give people the rope to hang themselves with,’ Churchwell said. ‘We want to help clients make good decisions.’”
The Press Enterprise. “Home builders in the Inland region outdid themselves when times were good, and have built tens of thousands of homes too many during the last few years, a Philadelphia economist says.”
“In Riverside and San Bernardino counties, said Peter Linneman, principal of Linneman Associates, builders have erected 30,000 to 40,000 more homes than they should have.”
“Linneman said growth will catch up to the glut by year’s end. ‘It won’t necessarily return to crazy,’ Linneman said, referring to the double-digit annual growth in home values that took place earlier this decade. ‘This area came to believe that you couldn’t lose money in housing.’”
The San Gabriel Valley Tribune. “With fewer home sales, falling prices and economic uncertainty, this year’s housing market may get worse before it gets better. That was the message delivered Wednesday by the state’s top economist on housing at a monthly meeting of the Shorewood Realtors at the Manhattan Beach Marriott Hotel.”
“Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist of the California Association of Realtors, blamed the credit crunch and buyer reluctance for a negative housing outlook for 2008.”
“‘I’m pretty sure we’ll be seeing a decline in the median in 2008,’ she said.”
“After statewide home sales peaked in 2004 and 2005, with each year hitting about 625,000 unit sales on an adjusted annual basis, the market bottomed out with 287,000 sales in 2007, Appleton-Young said.”
“‘I think we are just about, if not already at, the bottom,’ she said. ‘It’s not going to get much lower than that.’”
“The South Bay saw a 45 percent drop in sales compared with a year ago, according to CAR. Besides cities like Torrance, Hermosa Beach and Manhattan Beach, CAR’s South Bay figures include Long Beach, San Pedro and Wilmington.”
“The run-up in home appreciation created ‘a mentality that you cannot afford not to buy a home in California,’ Appleton-Young said, adding that now people have the opposite mentality.”
“‘You’re dealing with buyers now who are waiting until the end of the market downturn,’ she said.”
“Appleton-Young added some cautious encouragement for buyers: ‘No one rings a bell at the bottom of the market.’”
The Independent. “With some bitterness, condo developer John Blankenship declared to the City of Santa Barbara’s Planning Commission that he would not stand before them again.”
“After 37 years in the business, Blankenship said that he was defeated not only by a declining market and the subprime loan crisis, but by a city permitting process that prevented him from profiting on his projects.”
“It is the city’s loss, he added, because for the past couple of years Blankenship Construction has been one of the few still creating condos in the $600,000-$700,000 range — middle-class workforce housing, just like the city said it needs.”
“Blankenship and his wife, Hazel, continued to insist that they will not build, especially in light of the glut of low-end condos on the market in Santa Barbara: Currently 184 are comparable to those built by Blankenship. A few years ago these units were fetching up to $700,000; now they are going for $450,000.”
“‘It used to be worth it. An entitled property used to be worth money,’ she said.”
“Most of the buyers for their $600,000 condos were subprime borrowers, and although the last count shows a mere 41 homes in foreclosure in the City of Santa Barbara, compared to 450 in the Santa Maria and Lompoc area, the banks have stopped making those kinds of loans.”
“Consequently nobody, said Hazel Blankenship, including herself and her husband, ‘has the nerve to try to build.’”