The End Is Coming In The Future For California
The LA Times reports from California. “Southern California home sales last month fell to their lowest level in more than 20 years. The $415,000 median price paid for a Southern California home was the lowest since January 2005 and about 18% below the peak median sale price reached last year, DataQuick reported. Los Angeles County median sales prices fell 12% in January from a year ago. Riverside County posted the largest price decline, falling 20% from the previous January.”
“The sharpest plunge in January home sales was 53% from a year ago in San Bernardino County, but Los Angeles County was close with a 50% decline. The average decline in the January sales total for all six counties was 45%.”
The Union Tribune. “San Diego County median home prices fell last month to their lowest level in four years with nearly half of existing homes selling at a loss in the face of mounting foreclosures, DataQuick reported.”
“‘Sales overall are ridiculously low,’ said DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage.”
“LePage said a record 34 percent of resale homes last month were previously in foreclosure and 9 percent were in default. Nearly half of all resale houses and condominiums were sold at a loss from when they were last purchased. The median loss was about 25 percent.”
“Ramsey Su, a veteran real estate agent who specialized in the foreclosure market starting in the early 1980s, said the market shows no sign of improving. Su said that in parts of Florida foreclosures are outnumbering regular sales.”
“‘I’ve never experienced that before,’ Su said. ‘How does it end? The end is coming in the future.’”
The North County Times. “Home inventory across North County ballooned in January, increasing the downward pressure on sales prices. The amount of time it would take to sell all homes posted for sale, jumped to 14 months in January, up 52 percent from nine months the same time a year ago, according to a report released Tuesday by the North San Diego County Association of Realtors.”
“The increase came from a divergence: Sales dropped to 365 in January — down from 490 a year ago — and active listings increased to 5,259 homes for sale in North County — up from 4,657 a year ago.”
“North County’s median home price of $562,500 is down 10 percent from a year ago, when the median hit $625,000, and is at its lowest mark since April 2004.”
“North County’s condominium market is also plump with inventory. It would take about a year to work through all available attached homes at January’s sales rate, the North County report by Cal State San Marcos professor Robert Brown showed.”
“And the condominium market experienced a drastic 8 percent drop in its median price in one month to $326,000 from December’s median of $355,000.’
“The number of foreclosures in Riverside County continued to rise at a meteoric pace in January, increasing the downward pressure on local home prices and flooding the regular home market.”
“Foreclosure sales hit 2,813 properties in January, up 475 percent from the same time a year ago, when 489 foreclosures sold, according to a report.”
“The increase was a 53 percent jump in just one month…just under the statewide average uptick of 55 percent. That meant that Riverside County shed its dubious distinction as the state’s foreclosure capital, ceding the title to San Joaquin County.”
The Desert Sun. “Nearly 3,000 foreclosed properties in Riverside County were sold at auction last month — a 475 percent increase over the number of repossessed properties auctioned off in the county a year ago, a real estate tracking firm reported today.”
“‘Defaults have not risen nearly as rapidly as auction sales. While certainly more homeowners are getting into trouble, the far larger issue is that fewer homeowners are able to get out of foreclosure than ever before,’ said ForeclosureRadar.com founder Sean O’Toole.”
“O’Toole said that in January, many lender-repossessed properties failed to receive reasonable bids at auction, despite ’significant discounts.’”
“He said the asking prices on 4,624 homes, or 23 percent of the 19,821 properties up for auction in the state, were reduced 30 percent to entice buyers.”
“‘The majority of these discounts are from the amount owed on an 80 percent first mortgage made in the last two to three years, meaning that many of these properties are being offered at 50 to 70 percent of their prior value,’ O’Toole said.”
The Orange County Register. “Orange County’s first luxury high-rise tower project now has its first foreclosure. A unit in one of the twin 18-story towers in Irvine has been repossessed by the lender, the first foreclosure in Marquee Park Place, according to two Web sites that track foreclosures.”
“And that’s not all. Veronica Hicks, head of brokerage Condos etc. in Newport Beach, said she is marketing a unit on the 16th story of one of the towers for $950,000 to $1.1 million, which is less than the debt owed to the bank.”
“While only two of the 232 units are under duress, a total of 42, or 18 percent, were listed for sale last week in the Southern California MLS. The towers are a little more than 2 years old.”
“Walter Hahn, a real estate economist in Irvine who has followed the project since its development, said he is not surprised about the foreclosure because builder Bosa Development did not prevent or cap sales to investors. Hahn said he believes many of the original buyers were speculators,who hoped to resell quickly.”
“‘I expect more of them to go into foreclosure,’ Hahn said.”
“Over the past six months condo foreclosures rose 321 percent vs. a year earlier in Orange County, while foreclosures on houses climbed 274 percent, DataQuick reports.”
“And foreclosures and short sales accounted for 32 percent of condos on the market last week, while 27 percent of houses, according to the math of Steve Thomas at Re/Max Real Estate Services in Aliso Viejo.”
“The unit in foreclosure at Marquee was bought in November 2006 for about $1 million. Public documents show the buyer took out a simultaneous first and second mortgage totaling the purchase price. The lender was bankrupt subprime company New Century Financialin Irvine.”
“In November 2006, the same month the buyer bought the Marquee unit, he bought a property in Rancho Santa Margarita. The $799,960 first mortgage on the Marquee unit went into default nine months later and was foreclosed upon three weeks ago.”
“Hahn said it’s unlikely the buyer had a poor credit profile typical of subprime borrowers. It’s more likely the buyer was someone who did not provide proof of income and was stretching financially with a loan that begins with a low teaser rate, he said. Such factors pushed investors into the arms of subprime lenders during the housing boom, he said.”
“Such risky loans are going bad and it’s one reason foreclosures are spiking in Orange County, Hahn said. ‘One of those eggs is hatching now, rotten eggs,’ he said.”
The Tribune. “In San Luis Obispo, even new condominiums with prices guaranteed to be lower than market rates are having a hard time selling these days.”
“Started in April 2005, Bella Montaña is a $24 million Cal Poly condominium subdivision that guarantees pricing discounts of 20 percent or more. The new 21-building condo community next to the Cal Poly campus offers prices from $323,000 to nearly $400,000 a unit.”
“But in November, the date targeted by the Housing Corp. to have sold all of its units, only 30 of its 69 condominiums had sold, said Jim Reinhart, managing director of the Cal Poly Housing Corp.”
“‘Starting in late 2006, we saw some buyers, who had put up $1,000 deposits, withdrawing their offers,’ Reinhart said. He believes the buyers were reluctant to move forward when the prices in the real estate market were declining.”
From Bloomberg. “When Mary Kamanu paid $409,000 for a house in Folsom, California, she never imagined that three years later it would be worth about 20 percent less and she would have to pay the bank more than $80,000 just to sell the place.”
“‘I’m completely upside-down on my mortgage, like a lot of people,’ said Kamanu, who wants to move 12 miles away to live with her fiancé in a suburb of Sacramento. ‘I know I’m going to have to come up with a big chunk of change.’”
“Kamanu refinanced her house in May 2007 and owes $415,000 on her mortgage. Homes in her neighborhood now sell for about $330,000, she said. The median home price in California dropped 17 percent from a year earlier in December, according to the state’s association of Realtors.”
“She said she’s willing to sell the three-bedroom, two-bath, 1,272-square foot house fully furnished and include two wide- screen televisions to entice a buyer.”
“‘I’m hearing it might be a year or two before the housing market comes back, and I can’t wait that long,’ said Kamanu. ‘I’m relying on luck, hoping that someone will come along and fall in love with the house, like I did.’”
“Thirty-nine percent of people who purchased a home two years ago already owe more than they can sell it for, according to a Feb. 12 report from Zillow.com. ‘If people owe more on their mortgage than their house is worth, a substantial number of them will give their keys back,’ said Kenneth Rosen, head of the University of California’s Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics.”
From CBS News. “For Karen Traynor, buying a condo closer to her job in San Francisco seemed like a sound financial decision. But in the last year, this home seemed to drop in value by the day - forcing Traynor to make a much more devastating decision, CBS News correspondent Sandra Hughes reports.”
“‘It would be an intentional foreclosure,’ Traynor said.”
“Her adjustable-rate mortgage will be reset in June. And although she can afford the $900 increase in payments, she doesn’t think it makes financial sense. ‘I am not doing anything illegal. I am not scamming anybody,’ she said.”
“When real estate was booming, Traynor bought her 2-bedroom condo for $505,000 after it appraised for $520,000. Although she took out a 100 percent loan, she figured she had some equity. Now, she would be lucky to unload her property for $340,000. That’s a $165,000 loss.”
“‘Everything is negotiable in business,’ Traynor said. ‘And so this is just another business decision. I just don’t see why this is anything different.’”