The Urgency Has Definitely Dissipated In California
The LA Times reports from California. “The bottom line: The bottom isn’t here yet, some experts say. ‘The urgency that characterized the boom has definitely dissipated,’ said economist Leslie Appleton-Young of the California Assn. of Realtors. ‘For the first time in the last 10 years, we forecast a softening in the median home price.’”
“Economist Christopher Thornberg said he was suspicious of reports that (prices) were still going up in some areas. ‘The numbers keep getting worse and worse,’ he said. ‘Housing has no more ‘up’ in it. Prices have to start coming down or the market will stall.’”
“In Orange County the inventory of housing for sale is growing, with the number of homes in escrow at half the level of the year-earlier period, said Steven Thomas, president of Re/Max Real Estate Services.”
“‘We were trucking along nicely in February and then sub-prime [mortgage woes] hit in March,’ he said. Inventory will rise through the spring and summer, Thomas predicted, before ‘frustrated unsuccessful sellers throw in the towel’ and cut their prices.”
The San Francisco Chronicle. “The for an existing single-family home rose to $580,090, up from $562,130 a year ago. While that 3.2 percent median price increase slightly outpaced the rate of inflation, Kleinhenz and others said that the increase is misleading, as prices fell in many geographic areas.”
“Christopher Thornberg put it bluntly. ‘The median price is a bunch of hogwash,’ he said. ‘You can have prices looking like they’re up when they’re down, because it is incredibly subject to where slowdowns are occurring. You could show the median price going up just because there is a shift in the type of product being sold.’”
The North County Times. “Sales of existing single-family homes plummeted last month in San Diego and Riverside counties, and in nearly every other California market, amid growing anxiety over the collapse of the subprime market, real estate officials said Tuesday.”
“According to the California Association of Realtors, values declined significantly in (the) neighborhoods of Oceanside, Escondido and Ramona. Prices also declined in Temecula, Murrieta, Lake Elsinore and Wildomar.”
“With declining prices and sales, and many getting behind on mortgages, some homeowners are going to lose their homes, said John Husing, an Inland Empire economist. That’s not all bad, he said.”
“‘To some extent, this is about investors who made bad bets,’ Husing said. ‘Frankly, I could care less about that group because, frankly, they have caused part of our problem (of a constrained supply and inflated prices).’”
The Tribune. “The median price of an existing, single-family home in San Luis Obispo County fell to $550,400 in March, declining 5.2 percent from the same period a year ago.”
“The declines, said Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, could be attributed in part to news related to the subprime fallout, sellers becoming more realistic about pricing their homes and a slowdown in the secondhome market.”
“‘The (second-home) market in 2007 is not what it was in 2006 or 2005,’ he said. ‘That can contribute to greater softness.’”
The Ventura County Star. “In the Thousand Oaks area, the stock of unsold homes is increasing while the number of would-be buyers who qualify for mortgages is on the decline, said Allen Reznick, president of the Conejo Valley Association of Realtors.”
“‘We’re not worried about foreclosure sales driving down prices,’ economist Bill Watkins said. ‘The bigger risk, and perhaps part of the current slowdown, is the changing lending standards.’”
The County Sun. “Home prices in the San Bernardino-Riverside area suffered a year-over-year decline in March. ‘It’s nothing we haven’t been expecting,’ said Redlands-based regional economist John Husing.”
“Research by Zip Realty for Southern California shows that roughly a third of the homes sold so far this year have involved some sort of price concession by the seller.”
“‘We have moved into a buyer’s market, particularly in the Inland Empire,’ said Tracy Malone, district manager for Zip Realty. ‘Buyers have become very well educated about the market and with more inventory available, they have more choices.’”
“In general, prices are slipping. Husing says there are three factors that will continue that trend through the rest of 2007.”
“‘New home builders are downsizing to try and reach particular price points,’ he said. ‘There are also lots of speculators trying to sell, and some of them will sell for less than they paid just to get out. Then there are the people with the creative financing who are going to find themselves needing to sell.’”
The Daily Breeze. “Jack Kyser, chief economist at the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., said that trouble will be greatest in the Inland Empire and central part of the state because those areas saw a surge of new home construction in the past several years.”
“He agrees that buyers no longer feel a sense of urgency to jump into the market.”
“‘The pendulum has definitely swung in their favor. If you qualify you can go out armed and dangerous and find out how motivated the seller really is,’ he said.”
The Press Enterprise. “The number of homes on the market in the Inland region is at its highest level in eight years, according to Multi-Regional MLS, which tracks resale homes in western Riverside and San Bernardino counties and eastern Los Angeles County. The service reports that more than 34,700 homes are listed for sale in the region.”
“The month’s supply of listings, or how long it would take for this supply of homes to be sold at the current pace, is at 13.2 months, up from 6.9 months a year ago.”
“‘That’s a pretty significant leap,’ said Steve Johnson, director of a Riverside real estate consulting firm. ‘We’re just not coming out of the gate as fast as most of us in the real estate industry thought.’”
“Johnson said he expects the number of homes listed to go up for at least the next six months. ‘We have a lot of people listing their houses in fear that they won’t be able to refinance, because they can’t really jump into another subprime loan,’ he said.”
“According to the report, the number of properties sold in the first quarter of 2007 also dropped by about 20 percent compared with the same period a year ago. ‘In many respects it is bad news for the sellers because the market will become more competitive,’ Johnson said.”
“Riverside County homeowners suffering from a recent plunge in the housing market might see some relief on their property tax bills, but experts say it won’t be enough to stave off looming foreclosures.”
“The move comes at the request of Supervisor Jeff Stone, who said property taxes should be based on present-day home values and not the values of an overheated market. ‘Predatory lending practices have created a housing debacle in our county,’ said Stone, whose Southwestern county district has been roiled by the tumultuous market.”
“Foreclosures in Riverside County have spiraled from 522 in January 2005 to 3,514 foreclosures last month, according to RealtyTrac. The sagging market, Stone said, has particularly affected the cities of Temecula, Murrieta, Moreno Valley, Hemet, San Jacinto and Desert Hot Springs.”
The Desert Sun. “With property values falling throughout the county and Coachella Valley, the taxes could drop and save homeowners money, Supervisor Jeff Stone said.”
“Among the few who may benefit from falling values: People who bought recently at the market peak, only to see prices drop.’To get a tax cut, you have to buy a home at the peak and have it lose value quickly,’ Assessor Dan Goodwin said. ‘You can’t enjoy double-digit increases in your home value and then expect a tax cut when the market dips.’”
From CBS 2. “California reported 80,595 first-quarter foreclosure filings, about 18 percent of the national total and numerically more than any other state, according to RealtyTrac.”
“‘It’s not just low-end homes that are going into foreclosure; we’re seeing a rising percentage of foreclosures with an estimated market value of more than $750,000,’ said RealtyTrac CEO James J. Saccacio.”