April 20, 2007

A “Code Red” For The Housing Bubble

It’s Friday desk clearing time. “Jeffrey Taylor and his wife bought their dream home in Purcellville for $538,000 last August. Now they have to sell it and neither one can afford the mortgage alone. The most they could get for it was $430,000. After paying all the real estate commissions and taxes, they will still owe the bank $118,000.”

“‘Five months later, I lose $100,000,’ Taylor said. ‘I don’t think I can take $100,000 into the stock market and lose it faster.’”

“Wilbur Van Wyck, former president of the Ocala/Marion County Association of Realtors, said that while Marion County isn’t short of prospective buyers stagnant markets in both South Florida and in the Northeast have made it difficult for people to make the move here.”

“‘The biggest problem I’ve seen is that people want to buy here, but they can’t sell homes elsewhere,’ Van Wyck said.”

“Banks began foreclosure proceedings against 56 percent more North Carolina homeowners last month compared with a year ago, according to a new report.”

“Peter Skillern, director of a Durham nonprofit group, said he was not surprised by the big spike in North Carolina. ‘I think the primary cause for the increase is the use of adjustable rate mortgages. Borrowers simply can’t afford them,’ he said.”

“Spanish real estate companies took a hammering in the stock market Thursday as evidence mounted that Spain’s 10-year property boom is over. ‘The Spanish real estate sector is not a bubble, it is a huge balloon. When it blows up there will be an enormous bang,’ said one Madrid trader.”

“Leading estate agents have begun to feel the pinch of the property market slowdown with confirmation of redundancies at two main companies over the past couple of months. Gunne Residential has made eight people redundant and has closed two branches in Bray, Co Wicklow, and Swords, Co Dublin.”

“‘It’s diabolical at the moment,’ said one agent who did not wish to be named. ‘And I would expect more redundancies in the sector in the next few months.’”

“The slowing (Arizona) real estate market has claimed its first victim among local home builders. The nearly four-year-old AmericaBuilt Construction Inc. and its affiliate, AmericaBuilt Communities Inc., filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization Thursday.”

“‘They were always a good business to work with,’ said Jennifer Green, office manager for ROR Construction Co. ‘We all know what the housing market is doing right now.’”

“Housing starts slipped 37 percent in the Toledo area in the first quarter to 223 from 356 at the same time last year. When a competitor’s estimate for a basement-finishing job came in a third lower recently, it didn’t take Dennis Wolke long to figure out why.”

“‘It was a home builder out looking for work,’recalled Wolke.”

“The hottest get-rich-quick investment in Texas is an old-fashioned one: land. In Bandera, Blanco, Kendall and Kerr counties together, the median price per acre topped $7,086 last year, up 22 percent since 2005, and up more than 118 percent since 2001, said Charles Gilliland, research economist at A&M.”

“‘It’s sort of like a trip to the horse track,’ Gilliland said.”

“The statewide land rush continues to defy economic history and decades of data that track the rise and fall of rural property values. It’s enough to make an economist sound like he’s spinning a yarn.”

“‘Sometimes you have to worry about your credibility,’ said Gilliland, who doesn’t think people are overpaying for land yet.”

“A Placentia loan officer was arrested Wednesday after police say they caught him in the middle of stealing copper from a vacant Irvine building.”

“I’m average Seacoast resident. I’ve got a wife and a kid and a decent-paying job. However, due to a mortgage, plus property taxes, in the range of $1,900 a month, we cut corners, make due, yet still face an uncertain future.”

“My wife and I bought our house in 2004 for about $235,000 and it appraised a year later at $265,000. If my house appreciates by 227 percent by 2018, it would be worth $602,273. Hallelujah! Jackpot, right? We’ll all be in serious trouble if starter homes in America cost more than half a million dollars.”

“Economists use words like affordability, economic diversity and sustainability. Politicians use them as a punchline. Is this a code red on the housing industry? You’re damn right it is!”




A Repeat Of The 1990s In California

The Voice of San Diego reports from California. “After a dozen people spoke to the devastating effects of foreclosures in the region in Thursday’s meeting of the City-County Reinvestment Task Force, one San Diego man told his own story. Andy Sobel said he’s facing foreclosure on his east San Diego condo, which he financed 100 percent in July 2004.”

“He said unsound lending practices landed him in that spot, and sighs from housing counselors illustrated their statements that they’re hearing from 10 such homeowners a week. But testimony from the mortgage lending side said blame shouldn’t be laid at the general foot of the industry.”

“‘We don’t feel that there are any bad loans out there,’ said Rob McNelis, a mortgage broker and Realtor who represented the San Diego chapter of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers at the meeting. ‘There are loans used in improper ways for the wrong people…And unfortunately, there are some unscrupulous brokers who took advantage of that.’”

The Union Tribune. “San Diego County neighborhoods with large minority populations have been especially hard hit with foreclosures and risky subprime loans, members of the San Diego City-County Reinvestment Task Force were told yesterday.”

“Steve Bouton, an El Cajon banking consultant, said his analysis of census tracts showed a clear pattern of subprime loans, higher-priced loans for people with tarnished credit or low incomes who are considered greater risks.”

“Andy Sobel of Rolando told the task force his lender was of little help when he began going through foreclosure on a one-bedroom condo he had purchased for $240,000. Sobel is trying to resolve his situation with a short sale.”

“Sobel took out first and second mortgages with adjustable rates to buy his home. He said he was forced to stop making payments when they began adjusting upward and the value of the condo declined.”

“‘They are going to help me now, but it is kind of too late,’ he told the task force. ‘I am losing my home I bought in 2004. I should not have been put in this loan.’”

The Tracy Press. “Life will likely get tougher for those who hope to get out of the shadow of looming foreclosures, according to some mortgage and real estate professionals.”

“‘There are no products now available for people to get out of these loans,’ said Scott Thompson of Mortgage Resolution Services in Carmichael.”

“Thompson said that he is especially critical of a mortgage industry that sold nontraditional loans, such as interest-only 100 percent loans, to people who didn’t understand the risk. ‘By any measure, the mortgage industry is failing miserably,’ he said.”

“Thompson said the sub-prime loans have a place in the world of home loans, but not in a market where prices are flat and nobody is building equity. ‘The problem is about to get progressively worse,’ he said. ‘In the Central Valley, the use of this loan product was higher than the national average, so this area will get hit very hard.’”

“Local real estate broker Ron Cedillo agreed that it’s getting tougher as lenders are stricter than ever on home loans. ‘What I’m finding is the programs that were available six months to a year ago have shut down now,’ he said.”

“The latest numbers from RealtyTrac show 837 homes are in some stage of foreclosure in Tracy.”

Inside Bay Area. “Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pledged at least $20 billion to help homeowners caught in the subprime meltdown, but those in the Bay Area could be left out.”

“The loan limit on government-sponsored enterprise loans for single-family homes in California is $417,000. The Bay Area’s median home price in March was $639,000, according to DataQuick.”

“Since the loan caps are made by the federal government, there’s little Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac can do, said Fannie Mae spokesman Alfred King. ‘It’s going to be tough in some areas like yours,’ King said.”

“‘It’s cruelly cosmetic for California,’ said Ed Leamer, director of the University of California, Los Angeles Anderson Forecast. ‘It’s just restructuring, not debt forgiveness.’ Leamer said that even $40 billion is too small to make a difference.”

“‘This is going to be a drop in the bucket,’ said Kevin Stein, associate director for the California Reinvestment Coalition based in San Francisco. ‘This is not something available to the people who have been the most victimized.’”

The Sacramento Bee. “A housing slump that has wiped out countless millions of dollars in Sacramento-area home equity is soon to give a few million back.”

“Letters to 50,000 Sacramento County homeowners are being mailed today announcing cuts of up to 10 percent in their fall property tax bills, said Sacramento County Assessor Kenneth Stieger.”

“Thousands more homeowners in other area counties may see similar rollbacks. Yolo County officials say they may review up to 10,000 properties, and Placer County officials are eyeing recently built homes in Lincoln and Roseville.”

“Most of the homes that could see rollbacks were purchased during the housing boom. In Sacramento County, for example, median sales prices for all new and existing homes are at December 2004 levels, according to La Jolla-based DataQuick.”

“The rollbacks signal a repeat of the 1990s when recession and job losses pushed down area housing values and 30 percent of Sacramento County homeowners received property tax relief.”

“Stieger said nearly two years of falling prices have pushed many home values below their purchase prices. Most of the 50,000 affected homeowners will see reductions of 5 percent to 10 percent, he said. ‘It’s only right that taxpayers in that situation receive the tax break,’ said Stieger, a 22-year veteran of the Assessor’s Office. ‘The ones with the largest decreases will be those who bought in early 2005.’”

“Placer County Assessor Bruce Dear said he believes the bulk of reassessments “will come from starter housing, primarily Roseville, Lincoln, maybe a little bit of the Rocklin area. ‘We’re probably going to see instances of market value deterioration from a few percent to, it’s possible, 10 to 15 percent,’ he said.”

“Each percentage point represents about $2 million, according to the Assessor’s Office, meaning Sacramento County will see revenue fall by about $12 million for the fiscal year that begins July 1.”

“With home prices still falling, next year likely will be worse, said Geoff Davey, the county’s CFO. ‘A year ago we were starting to see signs of it. Now we’re really into it,’ he said.”

“‘I’m afraid many entities in this region that get the majority of revenue from property taxes have been reliant on growth that’s not sustainable,’ Davey said.”

The Modesto Bee. “Apartment rents remain relatively flat throughout the Northern San Joaquin Valley, according to just-released statistics from the RealFacts research group.”

“When rents are as low as they are in places such as Modesto, ‘renting is the wisest economic decision,’ Bates said. ‘Though homeownership is the American dream, just in terms of dollars and cents renting is more economical.’”




“We Face Strong Headwinds”: CEO

Some housing bubble news from Wall Street and Washington. The Dallas News, “Slower new-home sales in key Texas markets are adding to homebuilder D.R. Horton Inc.’s woes. ‘We are struggling with softer markets in San Antonio and softer markets in Dallas-Fort Worth,’ Horton CEO Donald Tomnitz said. ‘San Antonio is much softer this year than it was last year.’”

“‘In D-FW, there is a lot of press about foreclosures and defaults right now and that is adversely affecting future buyers,’ Tomnitz said. New sales orders were down about 34 percent in Horton’s region that includes Texas. But the builder faces its biggest hurdles out west. ‘California is tough,’ Mr. Tomnitz said.”

“The company charged off an additional $67.3 million related to canceled land purchases and inventory write-downs. Almost half of the 26,000 houses Horton has under construction are speculative, with no buyer. And almost a third of the buyers Horton signs up never complete the sale, the company said.”

“Mr. Tomnitz said the cancellation rate is likely to stay high as new homebuyers have a hard time selling their current house. Plus, some mortgage companies have made it harder to qualify for financing. ‘We face strong headwinds, we believe, in the course of the next six to 12 months with illiquidity in the mortgage industry,’ he said.”

From Bloomberg. “H&R Block Inc., the largest U.S. tax preparer, said it found a buyer for its money-losing subprime mortgage unit after a six-month search, and will sell the business for about 40 percent less than it sought.”

“‘What matters most is that it’s being sold,’ said analyst Scott Schneeberger. ‘Just to make it go away is what investors really want the company to do at this point.’”

The Associated Press. “Opteum Inc., a real estate investment trust and mortgage lender, on Friday said it plans to exit its money-losing wholesale mortgage loan origination business.”

“Opteum said it has put the business on the block due to a deteriorating secondary market for closed mortgage loans and ongoing weakness in demand for mortgage products and services in a soft housing market.”

“‘In the last month or so, however, the secondary market for mortgage loans has experienced significant distress and substantially increased volatility that was initially precipitated by lax underwriting standards, early payment defaults and high delinquency rates involving subprime mortgages and concerns over the general state of the U.S. housing market,’ said CEO Jeffrey J. Zimmer.”

“Shares of First Horizon National Corp. sank Thursday after the bank said it lost money on mortgage lending because of more payment defaults and weaker demand for home loans from investors.”

“The culprit was bad credit, which led to losses in the bank’s mortgage business. The bank is writing off more loans as borrowers miss payments. The bank said the investors who buy mortgage loans in the secondary market have soured on home loans backed by bad credit. This squeezes profit margins because banks collect lower prices for loans.”

“First Horizon said it will stop making ’subprime’ loans to people with bad credit.”

“GMAC LLC’s Residential Capital home- lending unit and General Electric Co.’s WMC Mortgage division announced more than 1,400 job reductions as losses mount in the U.S. subprime loan industry.”

“‘The subprime mortgage market is going to shrink by 75 percent in terms of jobs and volumes of origination,’ said Ken Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California at Berkeley. ‘These companies got too big. They were giving people loans they shouldn’t have and now they’re getting rid of all that.’”

“Spokeswoman Gina Proia said the cuts were made because of ‘current market conditions and the deterioration of the U.S. mortgage market.’”

The Star Tribune. “‘Because the U.S. mortgage market continues to underperform, we regret to have to announce additional layoffs,’ COO Jim Jones wrote in a memo to employees.The layoffs come one day after the company said that CEO Bruce Paradis will retire in June.”

“Last month, the company said it lost $651 million in the fourth quarter, compared with a profit of $118 million during the same period a year ago. ‘ResCap did not move quickly enough to reduce exposure in the face of this downturn,’ Paradis recently told investors.”

“Company executives and analysts warn that the subprime market will deteriorate further this year. Interest rates on more than 10,000 of the company’s subprime adjustable-rate mortgages will reset by the end of the year, with many borrowers seeing their monthly payments jump by more than 30 percent, which likely will lead to more defaults.”

“A Hennepin County judge has granted class-action status to a lawsuit that accuses subprime lender Ameriquest Mortgage Co. of abusive and fraudulent lending practices.”

“‘The problems we have seen in the subprime market are exemplified by Ameriquest,’ Rudd said. ‘The rush to write as many loans as possible regardless [of whether consumers] were able to satisfy their obligations.’”

“Plaintiffs Luke and Tracy Ricci were seeking to consolidate debt by refinancing their mortgage. The couple allege that Ameriquest inflated the appraisal on their home and failed to disclose that their loan had an adjustable rate and several prepayment penalties and fees.”

From Ken Harney. “Have inflated appraisals helped fuel the current surge in foreclosures by credit-strapped borrowers? Are they at the core of many mortgage fraud schemes? The four largest trade groups representing appraisers say yes, and they are asking federal financial regulators to crack down.”

“(Appraiser) Gary Crabtree in Bakersfield, Calif., documented the practice recently for the FBI and state financial and real estate regulators. The basic scenario, said Crabtree, involves realty agents who have listed houses that aren’t selling.”

“To move the properties, they entice buyers, or friends, to ’submit an offer [for the home] that is $30,000 to $100,000 above the current list price,’ with the promise that they’ll get substantial cash at closing.”

From Bankrate.com. “On April 17, the House Financial Services Committee held a hearing called, ‘Possible responses to rising mortgage foreclosures.’ Of a dozen witnesses, none were mortgage servicers, the people whose companies collect mortgage payments, deal with delinquent debtors and initiate foreclosures. The committee didn’t call any lenders, either.”

“David Berenbaum, executive VP of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, suggested a…mandated temporary halt in foreclosures.”

“A mortgage servicer might have responded by asking who would pay the accumulated interest payments during a moratorium. The servicer, the investors who own the loan, the borrower? If it’s the latter, is that fair? Or would the taxpayers pick up the tab?”

“George Miller, executive director of the American Securitization Forum, warned that ‘policies designed to further regulate subprime lending or provide relief to borrowers’ could cause investors ‘to shun the market altogether and cut off mortgage credit for worthy subprime borrowers.’”

From Reuters. “Citigroup Inc. CEO Chuck Prince said Thursday some subprime lenders flooded communities with inappropriate mortgage products, skirting what he described as a ‘patchwork’ of regulation.

“Prince, the head of the world’s largest bank, didn’t name any names but said some mortgage lenders took advantage of light regulation.”

“‘People find out how to game the system to get capital through the least possible regulatory oversight,’ Prince said. ‘When that happens, bad people do things to harm our community. … Very exotic, aggressive mortgage products were pumped into communities where they are not appropriate.’”




The Boom Was Bound To Bust

The Boston Globe reports from Massachusetts. “The number of Boston residents who lost their homes in foreclosure was four times greater last year than in 2005, according to a new report, and the rate is accelerating this year. This year the city is on pace to exceed 2006 numbers. Of the Boston residents who faced foreclosure last year, just under half had purchased their homes with mortgages from five major lenders that specialize in subprime loans, the city said.”

“Last year, the median price for a single-family house in Roxbury, Mattapan, and Dorchester declined between 7 percent and 8 percent. When lenders seize properties, they auction them for sale, often at bargain prices, which can drive down the sale prices of other properties on the market. ‘It’s going to add to the problems,’ said William Apgar, senior fellow at Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.”

The Banner from Massachusetts. “The slump in real estate prices has spilled over into the Outer Cape construction industry, causing jobs to dry up and a jump in competition from up-Cape builders for local projects.”

“‘In the last five or six years, it was a contractor’s market. We could pick and choose projects and set our own prices,’ said Frank Deschaine, owner of Deschaine Construction out of Wellfleet and North Eastham. ‘Now it’s just the opposite. It’s a buyer’s market and contractors are dropping their prices.’”

“Many builders…are still worried that the downturn in their industry, which began last fall, is not over. Peter Page operates out of Provincetown. One of his regular clients, a real estate investor who purchased homes in Provincetown told Page he is no longer looking for properties to buy.”

“‘I’ve been hearing for close to a year that things had been slowing down [in the Cape Cod construction industry]. But I didn’t see it in my business until this winter. I had work for the winter but the inquiries are down, which is future work,’ Page said.”

“Leif Johnson, a custom home builder based in Wellfleet who has worked on projects stretching from Orleans to Provincetown for the past 48 years, said his business ‘is not as good as it was, that’s for sure.’ Johnson has seen an increase in competition from up-Cape builders, who are traveling hundreds of miles round-trip in search of work.”

“‘We’ve got a lot of competition. For me as a builder, for all these years in business and doing all the estimates, I’m not very successful lately in winning the jobs,’ he said.”

“Individual tradesmen have been inundating Deschaine and Provincetown contractor John Lisbon with telephone calls asking for work because their regular employers have laid them off. Lisbon said he has received calls from masons, shingle installers and painters looking to join his crew.”

“Painters in particular are hurting, he said, because clients are looking to do some of the construction work themselves. ‘People are constantly asking me, ‘Is that your best price?’ Lisbon said.”

“‘I get three or four calls a week from shinglers, masons and painters. They’re all scared. I’ve had few of them say they’ve never seen it like this,’ Deschaine added.”

“All the contractors interviewed cited the high cost of real estate as a primary reason for the downturn in their local industry.”

“Page said he is optimistic about a turnaround in the market because he has begun to see an increase in the number of bank foreclosures on homes. ‘If foreclosures start and [homes] go up for auction and sell for less, investors might be willing to get back into the market,’ he said.”

The Times Ledger from New York. “More homes were sold at foreclosure auctions in Queens than in the other four boroughs combined during the first three months of the year, and they were concentrated in the southeast part of the borough, according to a report.”

“The report shows 319 foreclosure auctions in Queens during the first quarter, more than 57 percent of the 554 citywide. The figure is almost double the number of foreclosures for the last quarter of 2006.”

“Of the 20 zip codes with the most foreclosures in New York City for January through March, 16 of them were in Queens and 12 were in the 114, an area that includes Jamaica, Hollis, St. Albans, Laurelton, Cambria Heights and Queens Village.”

“The Neighborhood Economic Development Advocacy Project report mirrors the growth of foreclosures in Queens. Through the middle of March, more than 1,200 foreclosure notices were filed in the borough, compared to 3,600 in all of 2007, Ludwig said.”

The Star Ledger from New Jersey. “In an echo of the savings-and-loan industry collapse of the 1980s, a growing number of lawmakers and consumer groups are calling for measures to bail out homeowners who are at risk of losing their homes in foreclosure. Yesterday, it was New Jersey Assemblyman Neil Cohen’s turn to take a whack at what is fast becoming an increasingly controversial topic.”

“‘What’s going on in the subprime market affects nearly every segment of the economy,’ said Cohen. ‘The subprime market was wonderful when it was good, and now there are problems with it and there is an enormous rippling effect that could cause a meltdown in the state.’”

“Earlier this month, Cohen called upon the state’s attorney general to impose a 180-day moratorium on subprime mortgage loan foreclosures, to give the state time to investigate and address the problems.”

“‘Blaming the borrower for the foreclosures and calling the current crisis a mere market correction as lenders have done is unconscionable,’ said Phyllis Salowe-Kaye, the executive director of Citizen Action.”

“She said that while 7.6 percent of the subprime loans originated in New Jersey between 1998 and 2001 ended in foreclosure, a recent study predicts that 19.6 percent of the state’s subprime loans originated in 2006 will end in foreclosure.”

“‘For most subprime borrowers, the nightmare is only just beginning,’ she said.”

“E. Bob Levy, the executive director of both the state’s Mortgage Bankers Association and the Association of Mortgage Brokers, said the market has already started correcting the problem. Lenders have dramatically cut the availability of risky products.”

“Terry McEwen, the director of the New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance, raised a possible snag to many of the solutions being offered. State regulators, he noted, have limited authority when it comes to regulating national banks. Just this week, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that state financial regulators have no authority over subsidiaries of national banks.”

“Although the ruling did not directly involve subprime lending, it raised a big question as to how states can enforce their own consumer protection laws when dealing with national banks.”

“‘As a consequence, federal institutions can engage in aggressive lending activities through their subsidiaries that would otherwise violate state law and yet remain insulated from liability for those activities,’ McEwen said.”

The Record from New Jersey. “Rose Mortgage CEO Ralph Vitiello and two colleagues were the only ones left last week at the 7-year-old subprime mortgage banking firm in Parsippany, which in January employed 60 people. ‘We’re taking care of loose ends,’ Vitiello said in a telephone interview in which he described the credit crunch that caused the company to unravel.”

“Wall Street investors could not seem to get enough of these high-risk, high-yield loans just a couple of years ago. But with houses on the market longer and default and foreclosure rates climbing, many such loans are being sold on the secondary market at bargain-basement prices, often below the borrowers’ cost.”

“Investors started to become leery of a softening housing market two years ago, and over time they were paying less and less for the loans that Rose Mortgage made to high-risk borrowers, CEO Vitiello said. The company also had to tighten its lending standards to satisfy investors, which resulted in a reduction in volume.”

“By 2006, it could not maintain a strong enough capital base to qualify for the wholesale funding it needed to make new loans. In January, Deutsche Bank withdrew the company’s last lifeline, a $50 million line of credit, and Vitiello sent a letter to employees urging them to ’start looking for other employment.’ In February, all but a few were let go.”

“‘Once they cut the line, the oxygen was gone,’ Vitiello said.”

“Vitiello said he was fortunate that partner bought out Rose Mortgage’s last bundles of loans at a price that allowed him to give employees their last paychecks, including commissions. Rose Mortgage could not afford severance pay, and ‘guys that worked for me are still looking for jobs,’ Vitiello said.”

“The boom in high-risk mortgage lending was bound to bust, said Joel Naroff, economist for Commerce Bank in Cherry Hill. ‘The people working in an industry that was artificially pumping up the housing market were working in an industry that had very little job security,’ he said. ‘It was like working in a dot-com in the 1990s.’”




Bits Bucket And Craigslist Finds For April 20, 2007

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