The Housing Bubble

The Sacramento Bee reports from California. “Just as springtime stories start popping up about busy real estate agents and multiple offers on Sacramento-area homes, here’s the Mortgage Bankers Association with a cold splash of water. No one in California will see signs of a housing market ‘bottom’ until the pace of rising foreclosure activity begins to slow, according to MBA chief economist Doug Duncan. And the newest numbers show that activity gained speed in the last quarter of 2007.”

“Thanks to Florida and parts of California, the nation’s rate of foreclosure starts and the percentage of loans in the process of foreclosure were the highest in the survey’s 38-year history. California and Florida alone accounted for 30 percent of all U.S. foreclosure starts during the last quarter of 2007. California is home to 20 percent of all U.S. subprime loans.”

“According to the latest data from the MBA, nearly 8 percent of households nationally with a current home loan were behind on payments, as of Dec. 31. The good news, he noted, is that ‘92 percent of people with a mortgage are paying on time.’”

“Forty percent of the mortgage loans in California and Florida and half of their dollar volume are in riskier adjustable-rate mortgages. Loan defaults and foreclosures probably won’t peak in California until middle or late 2008, said MBA’s Duncan. As long as home prices fall because of oversupply and unaffordability, foreclosures will keep rising.”

The Marin Independent Journal. “Last year, a record 133 foreclosures were reported in Marin, up from 29 in 2006, according to DataQuick . The number of default notices issued - the beginning of the foreclosure process - climbed in 2007 to 632. In 1992, a record 645 notices were issued.”

“Currently, records list 64 foreclosures and 459 pre-foreclosures in the works.”

“There is a ray of light for home buyers in Marin County after the federal government this week increased the amount of mortgage money that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can purchase.”

“Robert Thorson, chief financial officer at San Rafael-based Westamerica Bank does not think the real estate market will recover anytime soon, saying economic forecasts project it will take a year to four years.”

“‘I have seen national studies where the prices of houses have to come down further to be consistent with the average household income,’ Thorson said. ‘There is a lot of inventory - and with the foreclosure rates rising, companies that lend money for mortgages are charging more.’”

The Santa Cruz Sentinel. “Home sales plummeted in January, according to statistics kept by the Santa Cruz Association of Realtors, and February sales have not rebounded back to normal.”

“Tai Boutell of Santa Cruz Home Finance said he expects interest rates on so-called jumbo conforming loans up to $729,750 will be much lower than they have been. He mentioned one borrower he expects will be able to restructure his loan and save $160 a month.”

“Interest rates for a standard jumbo loan over $417,000 have been hovering between 8.5 percent and 9.5 percent, said Boutell. He expects the jumbo loan rates to drop by March 17 to 6.25 percent, which has been the rate for loans under $417,000.”

“‘That’s huge,’ he said. ‘There will be some success stories. I’m not sure how many.’”

“Not everyone will qualify for the bigger loans. Many local borrowers took out two mortgages because the homes they bought cost more than $417,000. But the guidelines won’t allow borrowers to consolidate a first mortgage and a second mortgage.”

“Another restriction: Borrowers can’t take cash out when refinancing their home. ‘With a cash-out refi, there’s more risk,’ Boutell said, adding that combining a first and second mortgage was viewed similarly.”

“To qualify for the larger loans, borrowers must present ‘full documentation,’ which means two years of tax returns, W2 forms and bank statements.”

“In addition, there will be more scrutiny of applications. Applications for the larger jumbo conforming loans won’t be reviewed by an automated system, which had been used to review most loans.”

“‘An underwriter has to physically look at the file,’ Boutell said.”

The Reporter. “Solano County Realtors learned Thursday…the mortgage limits for loans guaranteed by the Federal Housing Administration here is being raised from $417,000 to $557,500.”

“‘Practically speaking in Solano County, the $417,000 limit meant that the homes available were primarily foreclosures, distressed mortgage homes and age-restricted homes,’ explained Realtor Kathleen Ramos.”

“FHA loans are not simple to get, noted Glen Beddow of Adobe Mortgage in Vacaville. ‘You have to qualify, and have to validate income and only a certain percent of income can go toward overall debt,’ Beddow said. And that is a far cry from what was happening at the height of the subprime mortgage trend.”

“‘I think what we saw happening was a lot of people were getting into the market and using it as a commodity to make money,’ he said. ‘This may help us start to get back to a time when it was all about working hard and saving and achieving the American dream.’”

The North County. Times. “About 75 agents attended a conference at Cal State San Marcos, and all who spoke offered a positive outlook for North County’s housing market in 2008. They said they are starting to see multiple offers on homes and packed open house events, which they said point to a housing market recovery that is under way.”

“Real estate agents said that the region’s sagging housing market has started to bounce back and blamed the media and banks for delaying the recovery.”

“The last portion of the conference, a question-and-answer session, admonished the media for depressing consumer confidence by focusing on only the negative aspects of housing data. Agents also accused banks of delaying a market recovery by not responding in a timely fashion to short sale requests.”

“‘Trying to get through to the lending institution is nearly impossible,’ said Jim Aldredge, owner of JTA Realty in San Marcos. ‘It’s like they say, ‘Today’s red ink day, and you’ve sent it in blue ink.’ It’s that asinine.’”

“George Chamberlin, a panelist at the event and columnist for the North County Times, said that some news reporters biased their reports because they are jealous of homeowners.”

“Most real estate agents who spoke at the conference seemed to agree, with one agent suggesting that agents and builders pull all advertising from newspapers until positive articles are printed.”

“‘People think the market is down and the market will still go down. That’s not the truth. The market is down, but it’s not going down anymore,’ said John Tuccillo, former chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.”

“San Diego County is among the nation’s leaders in home price decline, losing 19 percent in value from a peak in 2005, according to Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index. January sales in North County fell almost 50 percent from 2005, according to a report by the North San Diego County Association of Realtors.”

From KGTV. “For the first time in a long time, unemployment in San Diego is higher than the national average. Additionally, the economic picture for San Diego County is not a pretty one.”

“It’s the word no one likes to hear, but it has to be asked. Is San Diego in a recession?”

“‘Right now, we may not technically be in a recession, but job growth has slowed to a crawl. To a lot of people, it may feel like a recession,’ said Alan Gin, an economics professor at the University of San Diego.”

“The major culprit in a weak economy is, Gin said, ‘The biggest problem is the housing market. Prices are falling, sales are down and there are more foreclosures.’”

“One home price you might not believe is a Logan Heights house selling for $65,000. It may not be anyone’s dream home. It’s about 528 sq. ft. with what are described as some structural issues. It is a foreclosure, reduced from a previous price of $181,000.”

The Desert Sun. “The state’s seasonally adjusted sales figures are improving ‘ever so slightly,’ the California Association of Realtors’ deputy chief economist said Friday.”

“‘I even hesitate to use the word rebound,’ state economist Robert Kleinhenz said of the California housing market. ‘Maybe the operative word should be ’stabilize.’”

“Coachella Valley housing sales in January were down 15.3 percent from the previous year, according to the association’s latest figures. Kleinhenz doesn’t expect any ’significant recovery’ in the next year.”

“‘It’s not like we’re seeing things shoot back up,’ he said of sales trends. ‘But we’re hoping it will improve as we go forth.’”

“The desert chapter of the Building Industry Association is branching out to home showcases in an effort to increase buyers’ interest and sell more new homes. It comes at a critical time for local builders, stung by the slumping real estate market.”

“January’s figures show new construction home sales were down 64 percent from last year. And while a few developers are choosing auctions as a way to sell off inventory, new construction is grinding to a halt because of the slowdown.”

“‘Builders have stopped building for the time being,’ chapter executive director Fred Bell said.”

“Developers are ‘offering special discounted prices and a host of attractive incentives,’ officials said in a release.”

“The local chapter is the first BIA in Southern California to host a homes showcase like this, Bell said. ‘We were thinking it would be a 2009 program,’ Bell said. But given the current market conditions, ‘We moved it up.’”

The Desert Dispatch. “Ambitious plans to build a 25,000 home development south of Barstow have slowed as the developer faces financial troubles in a slowing housing market.”

“Representatives of SunCal Companies, which plans to triple Barstow’s population with its Waterman Junction development, say that the company fully intends to complete its plans, but say less than expected housing demand has caused delays.”

“‘We received assurances that the project is moving forward but at a much slower pace,’ said city spokesman John Rader.”

“The six-county region that includes San Bernardino County will require more than 700,000 new housing units in the next seven years. Jeff Lustgarten, spokesman for the Southern California Association of Governments…said that a lack of homes, especially in the bigger cities, is driving up prices which could encourage homebuyers to relocate to Barstow and nearby areas.”

“‘I know it’s a little bit slower, but I think it will kick back into gear,’ said Council member Julie Hackbarth-McIntyre. Hackbarth-McIntyre doesn’t expect slow demand for homes to last for long.”

“‘Once housing starts to pick up down the hill it will still be just as pricey and just as crowded,’ she said. ‘The High Desert is still the next place for economic growth.’”

The News Press reports from Florida. “Nicole Rennie figures a college student could not have dreamed of owning a home in Cape Coral when she moved here two years ago. But she and boyfriend Steven Coburn are closing Monday on a three-bedroom, two-bath home in southwest Cape Coral. ‘My parents don’t even own a house, but look at me,’ Rennie said. ‘I’m 21 years old and buying a house. Nobody is helping us. We are doing this on our own. It means a great deal to me.’”

“Rennie works at Lowe’s, Coburn at BJ’s. Together, Rennie said they have a household income of about $54,000. Rennie is still working toward a bachelor’s degree in special education from Florida Gulf Coast University, providing added financial pressure.”

“The couple is buying their new home on Southwest 26th Street for $109,900. A recent city report said the median home value in that ZIP code is $323,520, much more than the couple could ever afford anytime in the near-future, Rennie said.”

“Now, she and Coburn will end up paying a monthly mortgage of about $1,200, the same as they pay in rent right now. ‘We will own something,’ she said, ‘for the same amount of money each month that we have been throwing down the drain.’”

“Lee County’s unemployment rate rose to 6.3 percent in January, the highest in 15 years. About 18,000 people were out of work in Lee County, according to data released Friday from the Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation.”

“A year ago, the jobless rate was 3.6 percent. The state also revised the jobless rate for December to 6 percent, up from the 5.7 percent originally reported. Nationally, job losses hit a five-year high, the starkest sign yet the country is heading dangerously toward recession or is in one already.”

“Karin Ortiz knows that firsthand. She lost her job as teacher’s aide when the preschool where she worked cut back on staffing as enrollment dropped. ‘A lot of parents couldn’t afford preschool because they were laid off or losing their jobs,’ said Ortiz, of Lehigh Acres. ‘Now even Wal-Mart, which always seems to be hiring, isn’t looking for anyone.’”

“Job seeker Jose Vega of Fort Myers Shores, said it’s remarkable how few jobs are available. Vega had been installing air conditioning units until the housing stall left him without work. On Friday, he applied to work in the kitchen of a local restaurant.”

“‘I’m trying to find anything I can right now and I don’t care if it is washing dishes,’ Vega said. ‘They keep saying it’s going to get better, but it’s not happening.’”

The St Petersburg Times. “Not only did the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater area win the dubious distinction of being the biggest job loser in the state in January, with 11,700 fewer jobs than a year earlier, it also turns out that job growth stalled locally last spring and started eroding quickly in July, with the hemorrhaging continuing through the second half of the year.”

“In September, for example, the state announced the Tampa Bay area had created 13,400 new jobs while, in fact, it had lost 15,900 - a difference of 29,300 jobs.”

“‘I haven’t seen a job report this recessionary since the last recession,’ said economist Jared Bernstein.”

“Sean Snaith, economist at the University of Central Florida, called it ‘economic purgatory,’ but held out hope for recovery. ‘I’ll admit it’s a bit of a witches’ brew with high energy prices, a housing market recession and credit market turmoil, but if we can get to the second half of the year when the stimulus hits, we may be able to pull out,’ he said.”

“‘Otherwise,’ he added, ‘I’m getting fitted for a Goofy costume.’”

“Last year, when the state was boasting red-hot job growth in the Tampa area, Temple Terrace resident A. Colin Flood was frantically searching for work as a technical writer.”

“‘I’d never really had to hunt for a job before, but things just came to a halt,’ said Flood, who finally landed work. ‘The job came just in time to save my house. But most of the people I know who were looking for work still can’t find it.’”

The Herald Tribune. “Mary Helen Kress, administers the three state employment offices at Jobs Etc. in Bradenton, Sarasota and Venice. She says pickings are slim for those seeking work. ‘It is just so sad because we don’t have that much to offer them, so few companies are hiring right now,’ Kress said.”

“During February, she said, her three offices fielded 8,800 job seekers. ‘For that number of job seekers, we only have 93 jobs open right now,’ she said.”

“‘If we are looking at January, this is the height of our season; it is going to get worse when the season is over,’ said Nancy Engel, executive director of the Economic Development Council of Manatee County.”

“The worsening situation will prompt the Federal Reserve to make a deep cut in a key interest rate at its next meeting March 18, analysts predicted. ‘The problem with all these things is there is a lag from when the policy is decided to when it hits the economy,’ said Snaith. ‘We are really going to have to ride out the remainder of the first quarter and then the second quarter until the cavalry arrives.’”

The News Journal. “Flagler County, once the fastest-growing county in the nation, now has the unwelcome distinction of being the county with the highest jobless rate in the state. As the housing boom turned to bust, Flagler workers were hit hard.”

“For Palm Coast resident Dwight Henson, Friday’s dreary weather matched the employment situation. The journeyman carpenter and professional painter stopped at the One-Stop Career Center in Palm Coast to look for a job.”

“‘I’ve been running ads for two months, and the only people calling me are people asking if I am hiring,’ he said.”

“Henson said he lost his home to foreclosure and is hoping to find some kind of employment. ‘I’m just looking for anything now,’ he said.”

The Miami Herald. “Unemployment reached 4.2 percent in the region in January, up from 3.6 this time last year, according to state figures released Friday. Construction led the way, with nearly 13,000 jobs vanishing from Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties between January 2007 and January 2008.”

“The regional problem is the real estate bubble. With empty houses and condos abundant, demand for construction workers has plummeted. Meanwhile, as homeowners find themselves with no more equity to borrow against they are cutting back spending. That, in turn, hurts demand for goods, and therefore employees, in other sectors.”

“‘Consumers have 14 percent of their income committed to debt service,’ said John M. Burford, an economist for the International Bank of Miami. ‘That means they have a big mountain of debt to carry. Anytime you savage the consumer’s ability to spend, it affects employment.’”

“Burford said it could be 2010 before the economy starts to grow again. ‘We are ground zero for the real estate bubble,’ he said. ‘It’s going to affect us more than the rest of the United States.’”

“Some South Florida homeowners are watching the worst of the downturn unfold in their backyards — much of it the result of wild speculation gone sour.”

“The homeowners on Alesio Avenue, in an upscale and otherwise stable Coral Gables neighborhood, have watched the madness play out at the house just off Le Jeune Road for three years now.”

“As investors repeatedly attempted to flip the four-bedroom home at 330 Alesio for profit, new renters came and went, filling the swales with cars and creating other annoyances — such as three foreclosures in as many years.”

“It starts in November 2003, when Marta Perez bought the home for $415,000. She resold it in December 2004 to Rafael Piedra for $550,000 — a 33 percent return, public records show.”

“Four months later, Piedra defaulted on his loan, but in December 2005, before an auction was set, he sold the property to Samuel Morejon for $850,000 — a 55 percent return. Eight months after that, Morejon defaulted. He also sold before the lender could take the home. In December 2006, Jose D. Martinez paid $1.2 million, a 41 percent return for Morejon. Before 2007 ended, Martinez also defaulted, public records show.”

“‘Cumulatively, you’re looking at some insane appreciation here,’ even by boom-era standards, said appraiser Chris Vlad, chief reviewer with Hollywood-based Alpha One Real Estate Services.”

“Yolanda Feanny, who lives several doors down, blames investors for driving up the price of 330 Alesio and other homes on the block — and, along with them, taxes and insurance for everyone. ‘Investors [in general] should not be allowed to buy single-family homes,’ Feanny, 70, said. ‘My grandchildren, who want to buy a home now, are not able.’”

“A week ago, analysts at Fitch Ratings said they expected the pool of loans containing the mortgage on 330 Alesio to lose about 30 percent of its current balance, or some $341 million.”

“Investors won’t get any sympathy from the home’s neighbors. ‘There was no checking of what was coming in to the lenders and what was going out to the investment firms,’ said James Stevenson, who rents a duplex near 330 Alesio.”

“Stevenson, a former mortgage broker, said he had to switch careers several months ago because business slowed to a crawl. He said he now works for a company processing foreclosures.”

“For every listed home sold in January in Miami-Dade County, lenders filed six foreclosure claims, according to statistics from the Florida Association of Realtors and the county clerk of court. In Broward, the ratio was one to four.”

The Palm Beach. “Back in 2003, when South Florida’s economy was booming, officials at a small West Virginia looked south and saw an opportunity for growth that was missing at home. That’s how Ameribank, an eight-branch savings and loan with locations in rural West Virginia and Ohio, came to open its ninth branch that year in Palm Beach Gardens.”

“The next year, the bank affiliated itself with a Boca Raton mortgage broker called Lending One, which was selling thousands of no-money-down one-year home mortgage and renovation loans designed for speculators who wanted to buy fixer-uppers and flip them for sale at a higher price.”

“Borrowers paid Lending One a high interest rate - 15 percent, plus three to five points at closing. Ameribank assumed the risk for an 8 percent cut of the interest, buying loans in Florida, Ohio, Louisiana and eight other states, said David Hartman, who took over as Ameribank’s president in October.”

“But the borrowers didn’t have to repay any of the money until after the houses they bought had been renovated and sold.”

“‘It was stupid beyond belief,’ Hartman said of Ameribank’s decision to buy the loans, which ranged from $35,000 to several hundred thousand dollars.”

“The privately owned bank’s year-end fourth-quarter results showed troubled loans account for $42 million, or almost 31 percent, of its $136 million assets. Just a year earlier the bank had only $800,000 in troubled loans, which banks strive to keep under 1 percent.”

“To survive, Ameribank must persuade most of the home flippers who took out the loans to pay them back. ‘The borrowers are kicking and screaming about their losses, but hopefully they will do the right thing,’ Hartman said.”

From TC Palm. “Despite sluggish home sales, Holiday Builders is bucking the trend of cutting back construction and plans to open two new large developments in Indian River and St. Lucie counties this spring.”

“‘I’ve already taken three deposits,’ said Donnie Bradberry, a new home sales consultant with Holiday Builders in Vero Beach. ‘We’ve priced the homes from $183,990 to $199,490. The prices are similar to what we were selling in 2003, but that’s why we’re selling them.’”

“‘We’ve been able to work with our trade partners, and lower our home prices,’ said Holiday VP Genelle Cooper. Across the Treasure Coast, land prices have dropped 40 percent to 60 percent, she said.”

“‘Market price is the determining factor when buying a home today,’ said Don Santos, past president of the Treasure Coast Builders Association. ‘If you’re selling homes in their price range, then there’s still a market out there. But if you’re pricing in the $300,000 to $500,000 range in a new subdivision, I would suggest a lobotomy.’”

“While it is a positive that some builders continue to sell lots in the current market conditions, Santos said these newer homes below $200,000 would put more pressure on existing home sales.”

“‘If you’re a buyer, a real buyer, then you can make the deal of century today with any builder,’ Santos said.”

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