Economic Darwinism In California
The BBC News reports on California. “In a large, featureless convention centre 40 miles east of Los Angeles, more than 1,000 people have gathered early on a Sunday morning. More than 100 houses are up for sale here and every two to three minutes a property goes under the hammer. Similar auctions of repossessed houses are taking place nearly every weekend in California, where banks are cutting their losses from millions of dollars of bad debt.”
“There are bargains to be had. One man says he paid $375,000 for a house valued at $616,000. Lot 132 was a five-bedroom family home with a pool and three-car garage on La Salle Circle, Corona.”
“It was expected to fetch some $400,000. In the end Cornelius Foster and Debra Moore paid $500,000 for it; still less than the $700,000 it was originally valued at. ‘We’re very excited,’ Cornelius says. ‘It’s got a pool and we’re looking forward to getting in and fixing it up. I’m smiling today.’”
“In one house on La Salle Circle, two days before its auction, an estate agent’s sign outside proudly proclaims ’selling the American Dream since 1969.’”
“But, as estate agent Julie Bruckner tours the property with its chandelier in the living room and a huge walk-in closet upstairs, she is well aware of a poignant irony. ‘There are so many in this area that are vacant.’”
“The Corona area has the third highest rate of foreclosures, or repossessions, in the United States. On La Salle Circle at least three properties were empty, awaiting sale.”
“One local resident is Jeanette Lovell, a British expat. She and her husband are not in mortgage difficulties, yet she was still worried about her own home’s value. ‘We may have to relocate for my husband’s job,’ Ms Lovell says. ‘And I know that our house has lost $150,000 in value in 18 months - if we can sell it at all.’”
“Cindy Robinson, another resident of La Salle Circle, predicts more problems: ‘You get graffiti,’ she says. ‘And then white collar crime.’”
The Desert Sun. “In a rare flash of optimism, two UCLA economists Tuesday forecast that California, while experiencing a ’slightly slower’ economy, will not sink into recession.”
“The UCLA economists noted that, nationally, housing construction starts had fallen from 2.3 million units in January 2006 to 1 million last January. ‘Never before have we had this kind of collapse in housing that was not accompanied by a recession,’ they wrote. ‘This time is different.’”
“‘I think they’re wrong,’ said John Husing, president of Economics and Politics Inc. of Redlands. ‘I think we are in a recession. As much as anything else, if you look at the volume of containers going through the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, which is a precursor of what retailers are expecting, you’ll see that in 2006, the number of containers went up 900,000. Last year, it was down 15,000. Since 1990, the number has never gone down.’”
“Husing added he had ‘no doubt the Inland Empire will be in a recession in 2008. Last year, there were just 596 jobs added to the work force. The year before 44,200 were added. This year, the number will be probably negative. I’ve studied this economy for 44 years and the number has never been negative.’”
“Meanwhile, two professors from USC added to the real estate gloom by predicting that because of demographics, the slowdown could last two more decades. Dowell Myers, a professor of urban planning and demography, said as the baby-boomers age, they will become home-sellers rather than buyers.”
“Myers and Sungho Ryu, a doctoral candidate at USC’s School of Policy, Planning and Development, said that once the baby-boomers begin selling, ‘it could dominate the market for up to two decades.’”
The Record Searchlight. “Rachel Carrino knows that when times are tough, specialty retailers are the first to feel the budget crunch.”
“‘We are a want’ store, not a need’ store, so we are kind of the last place on everyone’s list,’ said Carrino, whose Candle Connection in the Mt. Shasta Mall has seen declining sales since the fall. ‘The biggest telltale sign was Christmas. I usually do so well at Christmas; it gets me through the year.’”
“Carrino isn’t going out of business, but this year, holiday sales at Candle Connection were down about 35 percent from 2006. The drop has forced Carrino to take a close look at her budget and figure out how she’s going to make it to Christmas 2008.”
“‘I feel lucky because I am still in business, but I will tell you if something doesn’t happen soon — I know of businesses that are on the edge,’ Carrino said.”
“Consultant Scott Camp, who does marketing and special projects for the Greater Redding Chamber of Commerce, said anecdotally the economy has gotten worse for north state retailers since the holidays.”
“‘Some of the most bulletproof businesses in town have been hit hard by a variety of influences,’ Camp said.”
“‘This is economic Darwinism,’ Dan Ansell, chairman of Greenberg Traurig LLP’s real estate operations division, told the AP. ‘Those retailers and businesses that have a product that is desired by consumers will survive, and those who do not will not.’”
The San Mateo County Times. “Home sales continued to fall in San Mateo County in February, as tighter lending standards and waning consumer confidence pulled buyers from the market. Home sales sagged 22 percent compared with February 2007, according to the San Mateo County Association of Realtors.”
“‘Buyers are feeling uncomfortable with the market, and their confidence in the economy is low,’ said Denise Aquila, a real estate agent in San Carlos. ‘It’s very frightening to think of buying now, and in two years the house is worth less than you paid for it.’”
“Aquila said lenders’ guidelines and rates are changing daily, causing confusion for buyers. Throw in high gas prices and relentless company layoffs, and buyer confidence is on the decline, Aquila said.”
“As foreclosures continue rising around the county — they were up threefold in January — home prices continue to be dragged down dramatically in blue-collar areas such as Daly City, San Bruno and South San Francisco.”
“In Daly City, the median price of a home in February was $577,450, down more than $150,000 from $743,000 in February 2007. The median price in South San Francisco was $608,500 in February, down from $766,250 in February 2007.”
“‘Banks are dumping foreclosed homes on the market in Daly City and San Bruno, just to get them off the books,’ Aquila said. ‘That’s pushing down the value of homes in the neighborhoods of the foreclosures.’”
“Parts of East Palo Alto and eastern San Mateo are also seeing home prices fall due to foreclosure problems, he said. In Belmont, where 25 or 30 homes typically sell in a month, only five sold in February, Diridon said.”
“Many offers accepted are below the asking price, the report shows. In many cases, the selling price is down 10 percent or more, especially in working-class neighborhoods. The median price of a condominium in the county was $485,000 in February, down from $558,000 in February 2007.”
“‘The areas where first-time home buyers stretched to get in are really hurting,’ said Tom Diridon, a broker in Belmont. ‘A lot of those people shouldn’t have been first-time buyers.’”
The Daily Press. “Prices of existing homes in the Victor Valley dropped 4 percent last month and almost seven out of 10 homes sold locally in February were bank owned, according to a report released Monday.”
“Since February 2007, Victor Valley home prices have tumbled 34.6 percent, according to figures compiled from the Victor Valley MLS by Larry Trombley of Century 21 Rose Realty in Hesperia.”
“According to the listings, last month was the worst February for the Victor Valley housing market in at least 11 years.”
“Only five percent of homes on the market sold in February, with the average sales price topping $215,000. The average price per square foot ranged from $96 in Adelanto to $167 in Spring Valley Lake.”
“‘We haven’t hit the tip,’ said Carolyn McNamara, owner of The McNamara Group real estate company. ‘I think we’re going to continue to decline, but I’m hoping it will slow down in the next three to four months.’”