It’s Going To Get A Little More Rough Before It Gets Better
The Union Tribune reports from California. “San Diego County’s highflying housing boom is over, but real estate agents specializing in foreclosure sales say business hasn’t been this good since the deep recession of the mid-1990s. In the first half of 2007, the county had a record 2,896 foreclosures, compared with 445 during the first half of 2006, a 551 percent increase.”
“Today, of the nearly 24,000 listings of resale houses, condominiums and mobile homes, roughly one-fifth were identified by Sandicor, a local MLS, as distressed properties either in foreclosure or approaching the stage where owners could lose their homes.”
“During the second quarter of this year, the proportion of foreclosure sales shot up to 9.7 percent of all resales, compared with just 1.7 percent a year earlier. But that’s still off the peak of nearly 15 percent seen twice during the mid-1990s, according to DataQuick.”
“Analyst Christopher Cagan researched foreclosure sales a year ago in areas where there was a much higher proportion of distressed properties, Cagan found that they sold at significant discounts, sometimes as much as 20 percent to 30 percent.”
“‘We’re not there yet, but time will tell,’ said Cagan. ‘In general, the discounts right now are modest.’”
The Orange County Register. “Us: What have you learned about the Orange County new-home market since you began producing this report? Patrick: ‘The median asking price for all types of new homes during May of this year in Orange County was down by 3.4 percent from a year earlier, and it was even higher for single-family homes (down by 18.6 percent) and townhomes and plexes (down by 13.2 percent).’”
“‘What’s really interesting is that as sales of condominium flats in the county have tanked by nearly 19 percent from last May, median asking prices have actually risen by nearly 8 percent. I must also offer an important caveat: Many times the actual sales prices, not asking prices, are masked by various incentives that are difficult to track.’”
“Us: High home prices, coupled with an increase in interest rates, got the blame for starting the slowdown. What are other factors? Patrick: I think the psychological impact is huge because the news about the housing industry keeps getting worse, with an almost perfect storm of high home prices, tighter lending requirements and rising foreclosures. And there’s not much to do about this particular downturn other than wait for the market to correct itself.’”
“‘Builders aren’t personally invested, so they’re not as likely to be insulted at a low-ball offer. Builders have lowered their prices to the point that they’re often a better deal than a comparable resale, so until owners of resale homes face their own reality of a lower price they’re just not going to be as competitive. While many resale homeowners have simply taken their homes off the market, that doesn’t mean the value will return by simply waiting.’”
The Press Democrat. “Foreclosures have soared to a level not seen in more than 15 years in Sonoma County The fallout could extend the housing slump in Sonoma County, where home buyers are finding that loans are tougher to get and cost more than mortgages issued just a month ago.”
“‘The investors in the market really are shying away because of the reawakening from the subprime loans,’ said Greg Jahn, chief investment officer for Exchange Bank in Santa Rosa. ‘It’s starting to spill over into other types of lending. Financial institutions in general are saying, ‘We’re not going to make credit as easy as it was.’”
“In Sonoma County, the median price has dropped 12 consecutive months in year-to-year comparisons. Lenders sent default notices to 462 homeowners during the second quarter, the highest level on record, and repossessed 163 homes during the same period.”
“Many of those defaulting on their loans stretched their finances to purchase homes, primarily around the market’s peak two years ago.”
“‘We could clearly see this fallout. They were overleveraged, their home values have declined, and interest rates are higher,’ said Marty McCormick, owner of a Santa Rosa mortgage broker.”
“Someone who bought a $600,000 home 2½ years ago with an interest-only loan and a 20 percent down payment could see monthly payments jump from $2,150 to $3,100.”
“‘It’s hard to predict panics. It might last a little longer,’ said Charles Biderman, founder of Santa Rosa-based TrimTabs Investment Research. ‘People who can afford to pay the mortgage on their house, they’re doing fine. Those who gambled lost,’ Biderman said.”
“About half of all loan applications are rejected today, twice the number from two to three years ago, said Joan Picard, a Cal-Bay Mortgage senior loan officer and president of the Redwood Empire Mortgage Lenders Association.”
“‘It’s going to get a little more rough before it gets better,’ she said.”
“National City Mortgage laid off 40 loan officers at its Santa Rosa call center this week and an additional 60 employees will lose jobs by September, the latest blow from the housing market’s downturn.”
“The housing industry slowdown contributed to a loss of 450 financial services and construction jobs in Sonoma County during the second quarter of this year, according to Moody’s Economy.com.”
“One of the employees who lost her job this week said the announcement was unexpected, coming two weeks after senior executives had reassured workers no cuts were imminent.”
“‘It was a shock to every single person in the office; not even the branch manager had expected it,’ said the employee. She added the announcement was made on a long-distance phone call broadcast over a speaker phone. ‘We were huddled all around it. It was so abrupt that they didn’t even have time to prepare.’”
“‘There’s just not a lot of money out there. Investors are going to cherry-pick. They’re going to want the best borrowers and the best loans,’ said John Klein, executive VP for a Santa Rosa mortgage broker. ‘It’s all supply and demand. This is a cyclical thing.’”
“‘They just don’t have enough business, so you have to stop the bleeding. Everybody is doing the same thing, cutting back and reducing staff,’ said Joan Picard, president of the Redwood Empire Mortgage Lenders Association.”
The Modesto Bee. “Real estate stories are filled with foreclosures, loans gone sideways and homeowners on the brink of financial ruin. In a recent poll of about 1,000 adults by Bankrate.com, about 34 percent of homeowners had no idea what kind of mortgage they had, said Greg McBride, a senior analyst for the Web site.”
“‘It’s one of those out-of-sight, out-of-mind things,’ McBride said.”
“Not only did many people not understand their mortgage conditions, they believed they could refinance the loan or sell the home to get out of problems. ‘A lot of people have been burned,” said Albert Dadesho, a broker in Modesto.”
“People who were priced out of the market before the downturn, he said, should learn from the mistakes made by those who jumped in.”
The Bakersfield Californian. “Between October 2005 and the following summer, a low-level office worker at the former Crisp & Cole Real Estate company bought four homes. Three are now in default. The fourth sits empty, a for-sale sign posted out front.”
“The office worker’s estranged husband is angry. He believes his ex never really owned the units. ‘At 14 bucks an hour she can’t afford any of those homes,’ said Gabe Stockton, a local real estate agent, of his former partner, Janie ‘JJ’ Stockton.”
“Gabe Stockton believes JJ and other employees were pressured to put their names on properties in order to make the company more money through related transactions. ‘You’re talking about some very professional salesmen, men with a lot of money and power, literally using people who are sometimes naive or in a weak position,’ Stockton said.”
“JJ’s most expensive property was bought from Alan Cole, son of Crisp & Cole’s one-time managing broker Carl Cole. JJ paid $795,000 for a southwest home in April 2006, property records show. What Alan Cole previously paid isn’t indicated.”
“Gabe Stockton, meanwhile, has been trying to sell the Ordsall Street house as a favor to JJ. He first listed the home at $711,000, then dropped the price to $699,000. People just drove on by, he said.”
“Last week, it was listed at $585,000, more than 26 percent lower than the sum JJ paid Alan Cole last year.”
“As of Thursday, at least 80 homes tied to Crisp & Cole’s former employees, their families, business associates and customers have defaulted since the beginning of the year, an ongoing Californian tally has found. Some have already foreclosed.”
“Even folks who never dealt directly with Crisp & Cole feel fallout in some neighborhoods where the company did heavy business. Greg and Elaine Hull moved to the upscale Grand Island development last year, never thinking the gated neighborhood would soon be dotted by abandoned properties with brown lawns and dead trees.”
“‘I’m livid,’ Elaine Hull said. ‘I have to look at that every morning.’”
“Three of the 11 homes on Ordsall Street, a block-long segment amidst new development west of Buena Vista Road, are in Crisp & Cole-related default.”
“‘The neighborhood was clean when we moved here in April 2006,’ Greg Hull said. ‘Then the lawns started dying. Our property value has definitely gone down, I’d say by $100,000.’”
“‘When you go for a walk, there are so many houses unoccupied,’ said Ravi Nandakumar, who moved here in early 2004. His tidy home sits next to a pair of defaulted properties owned by former Crisp & Cole employees.”
“Nandakumar has watched neighbors come and go. Most houses on his block have sold twice already, he said. With property values falling, he plans to stay put.”
“‘We are not moving at this point because it’s very difficult to sell,’ he said.”