The Housing Bubble

The Recordnet reports from California. “Months have passed since the days when dozens of homes at a time were going up in any given subdivision in San Joaquin County. These days, the typical new-home development looks as if it’s nearly in hibernation as the housing market steps into the third straight year of decline. The latest new-home figures show that quarterly sales have fallen to the lowest of this decade, according to the Gregory Group in Folsom.”

“A total of 421 new homes were sold countywide in the third quarter, down by almost two-thirds from the third quarter of 2004, near the top of the housing boom. Divided among 89 projects, that translates to about one home sold on average every three weeks at each development.”

“The average selling price also has declined steadily from a high of nearly $554,000 two years ago to about $468,000.”

“‘They’re getting body-slammed right now, frankly,’ said Greg Paquin, president of the Gregory Group.”

“‘Valley new-home construction sites are ghost towns,’ said Shane Hart, VP for Stockton-based Grupe Co. Incentives have increased steadily since the beginning of the year, while traffic and sales have continued to slow, he said. Grupe has offered as much as $150,000 in incentives per home, yet sales have become so slow that construction was halted at three developments in Stockton, Waterford and Tulare.”

“Florsheim Homes has come up with a marketing strategy to try to move a few remaining ‘close-out’ homes in two longtime projects - three homes in Turlock and seven in Ceres. Through next weekend, the company is staging a ‘Name Your Price’ sale, hoping to attract the same type of bargain hunters who show up for auctions.”

“Joe Anfuso, CEO of Stockton-based Florsheim Homes, has been a critic of developers who continued building in the slow market as the resulting large supply of unsold houses forced all builders to slash prices.”

“But construction activity has been pared dramatically in the past few months, as it should have, leaving builders still with the challenge of selling off standing homes, he said.”

“Anfuso said there’s no minimum price set. ‘You get to the point of how long do you want this to last?’ he said.”

“KB Home is working on about 60 homes in its Riverbend development in Stockton, making it one of the company’s busiest projects, said Kevin Kimball, senior VP of the company’s Central Valley region.”

“‘KB’s sales strategy is to be extremely price competitive, he said, with pricing down probably between $80,000 and $100,000 from a year ago. (For example, a 1,600-square-foot, three-bedroom/two bath home there carried at a starting price of $269,418.)”

“Paquin said there’s more bad news on the horizon for new-home builders, who in recent months offered such low prices and incentives that they even drew buyers from the existing-home market.”

“The flood of foreclosures is attracting the attention of bargain hunters and forcing existing-home prices down so much that those homes are getting more attention from potential buyers, he said.”

The Daily News. “‘Hey, it’s Mr. Doom and Gloom,’ Robert shouted from his stool on Wednesday when I dropped by a local restaurant. ‘You’re killing me.’”

“He was referring to two stories I wrote for that morning’s paper, one that noted foreclosures were getting to be a relatively good deal in this sour real estate market and the other about home sales hitting a more than 20-year low.”

“Robert has an interest in a Chatsworth home he’s trying to sell, and the market isn’t cooperating.”

“When this month ends, it marks the two-year anniversary of the start of the current downturn, at least here in the San Fernando Valley. In October 2005, home sales in the Valley fell an annual 16.1 percent to their lowest level for that month in five years.”

“That month, 998 previously owned single-family homes changed owners, according to the Southland Regional Association of Realtors. And sales have been falling on an annual basis ever since. ‘For Sale’ signs have become yard ornaments.”

“‘Properties will sit on the market longer, and that’s not a bad thing (for buyers),’ said Tom Carnahan, owner of Carnahan & Associates in Woodland Hills.”

“Foreclosures are sprouting up across the Valley, and some are priced about 20 percent under their last selling price. There is also going to be a big foreclosure auction this weekend at the Los Angeles Convention Center. There are 135 properties on the block from Los Angeles and Orange counties and the Inland Empire.”

“Of those, 38 are from the San Fernando, Santa Clarita, Antelope, Simi and Conejo valleys.”

“Two years ago, Jim Ezell was president of the Realtors group and had been in the business for 30 years, so he’s seen up and down markets. ‘I would not write an obituary for the booming seller’s market just yet,’ he said at the time.”

“You can probably make the case now that the market has a terminal illness. That’s what the numbers that are already out for September suggest. This week will bring more proof.”

The Union Tribune. “Builder Michael Pattinson may be spitting into the wind. In an industry where price cutting of new homes is increasingly taking hold, he remains firmly against using the marketing tactic.”

“‘It is the large public home builders that have led the discounting program. I think it’s wrong,’ he said. ‘They’ve hurt markets across the whole country.’”

“By cutting prices, Pattinson said, ‘you wipe out the equity previous customers have put into their new homes they bought earlier. Consumer confidence is lost.’”

“In an interview, he was asked how the market will look next year. ‘I think it will be a lot like it is today because the public builder discounting will continue and I think it will leave consumers on the sidelines.’ he replied.”

“‘This is the big problem with discounting: You push more people out of the market than you bring into the market. There will be one or two people who will say, ‘Yeah, I’ll buy that deal.’ But there will be a lot of people who say to themselves, ‘If they are dropping it $50,000 today, what are they going to be dropping it to next month or next year?’ he said.”

“The fourth quarter of the year had hardly begun Oct. 1 when home builders and industry experts wrote it off as a disappointment and gloomily predicted 2008 won’t be much better.”

“Industry consultant Jeff Meyers, a veteran watcher of the building industry with offices in Orange County, said buyers will be able to get 10 percent to 15 percent discounts off asking prices at certain projects. But they must be ready to close escrow without contingencies to meet the end of builders’ fiscal years.”

“Meyers said the availability of deals also depends on whether it’s a private company – which can take its time to sell at target prices, and a public company, with shareholders and analysts demanding greater profits every quarter. Judging by recent sales campaigns, it’s the public companies that are desperate to sell, even at a loss.”

“‘You’ve got to go back to the early 1980s when it was that bad – and it took four years to work that off,’ securities analyst Jeffrey Laverty told the Builders Magazine. ‘I don’t agree that there’s a turnaround in sight. It’s ugly out there.’”

“In short, the rose-colored glasses so many builders wear in this risky business have been replaced by bifocals, as optimism gives way to realism and executives retrench.”

“Paul Tryon, CEO of the San Diego Building Industry Association, said local builders knew back in July and August, when the credit crunch spooked investors and buyers, that 2007 would end up as a bummer.”

“‘I think there was more optimism for 2008 until the latter part of the summer,’ he said. ‘Then, traffic was down, sales were down, cancellations were up and people who put deposits in were electing to stay on the sidelines.’”

“For Mike Railey, hope outweighed fear as he closed escrow early this month on a $1.4 million, 1,500-square-foot penthouse at The Legend, Bosa Development’s 180-unit condo tower next to Petco Park.”

“He and his wife and their two sons live in a modest home in Del Mar that carries a negative-amortization loan. As a mortgage broker, Railey knows the risks of a loan on which the balance grows if you don’t pay enough per month.”

“‘I’m scared right now; I’m struggling a bit,’ he said.”

“Now the family faces an additional $6,100 monthly payment for the mortgage, taxes and homeowner fees for the downtown unit. He briefly considered backing out of the purchase until Bosa told him he could risk losing his 15 percent down payment.”

“‘I barely make enough to survive, but with my real estate I can hang in there,’ he said.”

“He hopes to lease the unit out for the time being and bank on an invention he’s marketing.”

“Jim Abbott, whose downtown office is helping the Railey family deal with its high-priced penthouse, said so far most builders are reluctant to cut. ‘Do they become like Steve Jobs with the iPhone and go back and give everybody a credit? What do you do as a developer? They’re in a very tough situation,’ Abbott said. ‘You could almost feel sorry for one.’”

“Since hitting a peak of $518,000 in November 2005, the median price of a home sold in San Diego County has tumbled to $470,000 as of last month, according to DataQuick.”

“Over the past couple of years, sales of expensive homes in areas such as Rancho Santa Fe, Coronado and Del Mar have skewed the median price upward, disguising the sluggish sales and declining prices in much of the rest of the county.”

“The least-expensive neighborhoods have been particularly hard hit, because so many low-income borrowers are going into default.”

“Last month, the median prices of homes sold in National City, San Ysidro, Linda Vista and northern Chula Vista were all off by more than 25 percent from their prices in September 2006. Prices in Golden Hill were down 35 percent.”

“‘The high-end sales that were propping up the median were taken away in September,’ said Rich Toscano, a financial adviser with Pacific Capital Associates in Del Mar.”

“The Case-Shiller Index shows that San Diego home prices fell 7.8 percent between November 2005 and July 2007, the most recent data available. After adjusting for inflation, San Diego homes have lost roughly 13 percent of their value since July 2005, Toscano said.”

“San Diego real estate broker Robert Schwartz said the median is also overstated because it does not reflect the incentives that home sellers are giving buyers. A home in San Carlos sold for $480,000, but only after the owner gave $14,400 in concessions to the buyer. Another San Carlos home sold for $385,000, not including $10,000 in concessions. A $360,000 home in Mission Valley also included $10,000 in concessions.”

“‘Those are all homes that I personally know about,’ Schwartz said.”

The Columbian reports from Washington. “If you think you’re seeing more ‘For Sale’ signs around Clark County, you’re right. The inventory of homes for sale here is the highest in at least five years, according to new figures. A year of sluggish sales contributed to a 12-month inventory of new and pre-owned homes on the market in September, the biggest backlog since records started being kept in 2002, according to RMLS.”

“‘Buyers are in no hurry,’ said Mike Lamb, an associate broker with ‘in Vancouver. ‘Their expectation is that prices will go down.’”

“Sellers are waiting it out as well, and some are ‘holding onto a false sense of appreciation that may not be justified in this market,’ said Kathy Rylander, also an associate broker.”

“New homes account for much of the excess inventory, a situation that has caused a dramatic slowdown in new home building. ‘Builders are having a rational reaction to the marketplace,’ Lamb said. ‘As things slow down, they’re building fewer homes. We’re going to have to work the inventory down.’”

“Home construction represents a $350 million piece of the local economy and supports several thousand jobs in construction and related services.”

“The sector barely kept up with demand two years ago. ‘Now, we’re fighting for every sale out there,’ said Matt Lewis, acquisition and planning manager for Vancouver-based Pacific Lifestyle Homes.”

The News Tribune from Washington. “If there is any doubt that today’s Pierce County housing market is one fit for buyers, check out these offers: A $5,000 furniture gift card on North Tacoma condominiums selling for $249,900 to $342,900. A $15,000 bonus in a gated community of houses in Parkland. A 2005 Honda Civic with a three-bedroom West Tacoma house priced at $549,500. A $15,000 shopping spree at Posh Home with a two-bedroom downtown Tacoma condo.”

“Such an atmosphere differs considerably from just two or three years ago, when buyers competed with multiple offers, were outbid, and sellers declined to make concessions they now readily make.”

“In September, 2,107 new Pierce County homes were for sale, a 26 percent increase over the same month a year ago, according to Northwest MLS.”

“New-home builders are pushing buyer incentives to stand out from the subdivision crowd, said Tom McCollum, a real estate agent selling homes at Stoney Ridge, a 39-house development in Frederickson. Buyers there are eligible for a $20,000 incentive.”

“‘The market has obviously changed, and there’s a lot of standing inventory,’ McCollum said.”

“Parkland subdivision AutumnWood opened for sale last year and added a $15,000 buyer bonus in August. ‘As the market has turned we have to come up with new and better ideas to motivate the buyer,’ said agent John L. Scott.”

“Builders and developers typically are reluctant to lower prices in favor of incentives. A reduction in price comes directly off the bottom line, whereas an upgrade, such as crown molding or an entertainment system, could cost the builder less, said Glenn Crellin, at Washington State University.”

“‘It makes it look like they’re contributing more than might really be the case,’ he said. ‘It’s a marketing ploy.’”

“Plus, lowering the price on one new house in a subdivision could impact the prices on subsequent sales and the value of nearby homes. ‘If they’re offering homes for sale for less than previous purchasers paid, they get a lot of negative reaction from folks who recently moved into their neighborhood,’ Crellin said.”

“David Groff listed his West Tacoma house more than a month ago and added a 2005 Honda Accord as a bonus a few weeks later. His 3,000-square-foot home, with a view, is priced at $549,500.”

“‘The house has a lot to offer, but there are obviously a lot of houses for sale,’ he said. ‘The car idea was just some kind of tangible thing you can see and feel more than a cash bonus.’”

“Bob Mortimer added a 1954 Cadillac to the sale of his Gig Harbor home after several months of no buyers. His four-bedroom house – now at $849,000, down from $895,000 – has been for sale for nearly a year.”

“‘I thought it might be a fun thing to do to offer it with the house instead of lowering the price again,’ Mortimer said.”

“Bill Riley, an owner of Gateway Real Estate, said he raised the price of a house in Puyallup by $15,000 recently and added a Harley-Davidson motorcycle to the listing. ‘Sometimes things like that capture a person’s attention. It didn’t work. We did it for three weeks. We dropped the price back down,’ he said.”

“Other real estate agents tell their clients to avoid incentives in favor of discounting the price on a listing. Buyers, said Windermere agent Mike Tinder, want a good price. Plus, today’s home shoppers respond to price reductions, because they can use money saved from lower house payments to pay off credit card debt, he said.”

“‘I think giving away a car is a bit silly. I think cash is king,’ he said.”

The Bellingham Herald from Washington. “Glenn Crellin, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State University, said much of Western Washington has returned to a situation where neither buyer nor seller has the upper hand, which may feel strange to some after five years of a hot real estate market.”

“‘The level of activity is down a bit across the state and supply is up, but prices are still holding up reasonably well,’ Crellin said. ‘It’s really turned into a balanced market, or slightly into a buyers’ market.’”

“‘My guess is that for the first time in at least five years, home prices will end up about the same as the previous year,’ said said Gragg Miller of Coldwell Banker Miller-Arnason.. ‘It shouldn’t come as a surprise. The market had been appreciating too quickly and a break was needed.’”

“Through three quarters of this year, the number of homes sold for less than $350,000 is down sharply. At the same time, sales of homes more than $500,000 are up sharply, already surpassing 2006 levels.”

“There are several explanations for the drop in sales for first-time homebuyers. ‘I think of it as the great psych-out factor that’s taking place for buyers (in that price range),’ said real estate agent Ken Gustafson. ‘There is a wait-and-see attitude, where some people are holding back, waiting to see what happens next. It’s interesting because there are many more choices and good loan products out there.’”

“‘Right now some are convinced that what’s happening nationally is happening here, but we don’t see those signs. Once they realize that, demand will increase,’ Crellin said.”

“‘The increased interest from Canadians has really taken place in the last few weeks when their dollar reached parity,’ agent Mike Kent said. ‘Vancouver (B.C.) area home prices are so high right now that Whatcom County looks like a bargain in comparison.’”

“Earlier this month Janna Denney closed on a two-bedroom condominium on Northwest Drive. It was her first real estate purchase. Even though Denney is 22, she was confident about being able to qualify for a loan because she has been working for five years. She was able to get prequalified last spring.”

“‘I felt pretty lucky, because I was qualified before all the news about tightening credit happened,’ Denney said. When she found the unit she wanted, Denney made an offer that was immediately accepted. She’s moved in now and happy with her unit, which was converted from an apartment.”

“‘This place has all-new appliances and they did a great job renovating it,’ said Denney, who paid less than $200,000. ‘On the inside it feels like a brand new condo unit, but with a usedunit price.’”

The Oregonian. “Clark County’s housing market showed signs in September of slowing more than the rest of the Portland area, according to data released Wednesday.”

“The county had a greater inventory, needed more days to sell and had a steeper drop in closed sales compared with the area that includes Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington and Yamhill counties.”

“At the rate homes were selling in September, it would take about 12 months to sell all of them. A year earlier, inventory was at 6.4 months. In September 2005, it was 2.6 months.”

“Closed sales dropped nearly 42 percent and pending sales fell about 30 percent.”

The Bend Bulletin from Oregon. “Mortgage defaults have continued to rise through the third quarter in Deschutes County as an increasing number of homeowners struggle to make their payments, county records indicate.”

“‘There is turmoil, some turmoil,’ as Ball Janik LLP bankruptcy and foreclosure attorney Jeff Gardner put it for a crowd of 45 local bankers at a seminar in Bend on Thursday.”

“Ball Janick’s attorneys are representing banking clients in foreclosure cases simultaneously in Washington state, Idaho and Oregon this summer, Gardner said, the first time he’s seen that in 10 years of practice. The cases have all involved residential builders working throughout the full range of the housing market — condominiums, subdivisions and high-end homes.”

“Gardner said he smells nothing in the air to indicate that the banking climate is about to melt down to anything like the high-interest crisis of the early 1980s, the agricultural collapse of the mid-1980s, or the real estate slowdown of the late 1980s and early 1990s.”

“The sky is not falling,’ Gardner said. ‘Banks are not necessarily going out of business.’”

“Despite the housing downturn, said Tom Bourdage, West Coast Bank’s VP for commercial loans said the potential effect of loan failures of all types on the local banking industry won’t be as dire as some think.”

“‘A lot of it is perception,’ Bourdage said. ‘It’s not as bad as it seems.’”

“Bend-based Bank of the Cascades reported that its nonperforming loans rose to around $21 million in the quarter, or about 0.89 percent of total assets, largely due to trouble among some Boise, Idaho, housing projects.”

“The Central Oregon MLS listed about 35 homes this week as ‘distressed,’ said broker Ruben Garmyn. The bulk of them are banks trying for a ’short sale.’”

“Most of the homes were owned by investors who bought too high and have walked away, Garmyn said. He expects it to rise higher through the winter as failed investors and contractors give up.”

“‘There’s going to be so many good deals on the market, it’s just incredible,’ Garmyn said. ‘You need to buy them now when everybody is sitting on the fence and doesn’t want to buy ’em.’”

Business Week reports on Oregon. “In the late 1990s, Bend became one of those sleepy mountain towns, like Bozeman, Mont., and Coeur d’Alene, Idaho, that started popping up on ‘Best Places to Retire’ lists. Construction boomed, the population doubled (to 75,000)—and so did housing prices.”

“But the influx of Californians, which contributed to the real estate boom, has slowed to a trickle. Just 106 single-family homes were sold in September—two-thirds fewer than in the same month in 2005. The town now has a 15-month inventory of homes for sale. ‘There’s a slump in the market, no question,’ says appraiser Michael Caba.”

“The best deals are in high-end homes that developers built on speculation. Bill Berger, who runs the local office of Hasson Company Realtors, has watched the asking price of one new 2,700-square-foot house sink from $579,000 in February to $439,000 now.”

“‘Prices got too high,’ he says. ‘Now they are coming back to reality.’”

The Palm Beach Post reports from Florida. “So many had something to gain from the mortgage bubble, says Bill Davis, past president of the Florida Association of Mortgage Brokers’ Palm Beach County region, and many of those people went about their business winking and nodding. ‘It’s everybody,’ he says. ‘The Federal Reserve participated, the big lenders played a part, the credit ratings agencies had a part, so did hedge funds and borrowers, appraisers.’”

“The local results: In the six months ending July 1 of this year alone, more than $1 billion in mortgages defaulted in Palm Beach County and along the Treasure Coast.”

“‘I had a guy who called me who owns 70 homes,’ says Stuart broker Michael Morgan. ‘I know a lady who owns 16. It’s the room of 1,000 doughnuts. How many can you eat? Two? Three? Well, how many houses can you live in?’”

“If everybody gets to be guilty of something, though, ex-Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan gets to be a little guiltier than most. Critics draw a straight line from the number-crunching wizard to front-yard foreclosure signs.”

“Mr. Greenspan slashed interest rates deeply and often: 11 times in 2001 alone. Says mortgage broker Davis: ‘It was effectively free money.’ Mr. Greenspan said in a recent 60 Minutes interview that he ‘didn’t really get’ how subprime loans could wreak havoc on the economy until last year.”

The Tampa Tribune from Florida. “Vacant homes with ‘For Sale’ signs on lawns and ‘For Rent’ signs taped to windows line the block. Neighbors have vanished, some loading moving vans in the middle of the night. New neighborhoods such as Carriage Pointe, where speculators bought homes several at a clip and homeowners stretched their budgets with creative financing, are particularly hard-hit.”

“‘No one has ever lived in those two homes across the street. This is not where I wanted to live,’ said Greg Gibbons, who has a view of several empty houses.”

“As many as 69 percent of the 381 homes in Carriage Pointe are owned by people who don’t live there, county officials estimate. This year, 31 of the homes have slipped into foreclosure, and many other homes are heading that way. Some investors drastically cut rents.”

“The builder seems to realize the home-buying boom is over. The phone number at the sales office is disconnected.”

“Of the 21 homes sold through Greg Armstrong’s Coldwell Banker office last month, 12 had been foreclosed on by lenders. ‘I’ve been in this business for 17 years, and I’ve never seen the bank be the No. 1 seller,’ said Armstrong, president-elect of the West Pasco Board of Realtors.”

“Homeowners who want to move or those seeking to avoid foreclosure by selling can’t compete, he said. And every time a lender cuts prices dramatically to move a home, values in the neighborhood go down, he said. ‘Lenders can afford to go much lower in price than homeowners can,’ Armstrong said. ‘The banks don’t want all these homes, so they’ll sell them for whatever they need to.’”

“That’s part of the reason Brianne and Robert Thompson have decided to file for bankruptcy and walk away from their first home, a three-bedroom in New Port Richey. ‘We hate to just let this house go,’ Brianne Thompson said. ‘We love it, but we can’t do this anymore.’”

The News Journal from Florida. “One Internet site reported there were 100 foreclosed or bank-owned properties in Daytona Beach and 135 in Palm Coast as of Oct. 12. Several area brokers contacted said they have departments devoted solely to selling such properties.”

“Ray Rivela, of Century 21 A.H. Stone here, said the foreclosure department in his office is working seven days a week just to keep up with the growing number of foreclosed homes.”

“Member Sharon Barbaro said the agency listed a REO property in Palm Coast that had originally sold for about $300,000. ‘I sold it for $200,000,’ she said, which was very close to what the bank wanted for the never-occupied house.”

The Orlando Sentinel from Florida. “An entire downtown redevelopment project in Eustis has come to a halt. Condos are on hold at Park Towers in Uptown Altamonte. In Winter Springs, where buyers have defaulted on contracts for town homes, nearly all development in the town center ‘is on hold until the market returns,’ City Manager Ron McLemore said. ‘It is not a pretty picture.’”

“Michael Allen bought a three-bedroom town home in the $300,000s last year. Despite the ‘available’ signs outside many neighboring units at Jesup’s Reserve, Allen still thinks he and his wife made a smart investment.”

“‘I think this community is going to take off,’ he said.”

From Jacksonville.com. “The owner of Paradise Key needs a clever way to sell the 62 homes on South Beach Parkway and Jacksonville Drive. By the time Bestcon Homes President Paul Nichols acquired the land and got the zoning and building permits, the housing market had tanked.”

“‘We’re hunkering down,’ Nichols said. ‘We’re trying to get through this.’”

“Under the new taxing formula, ‘it’s essentially letting growth pay for itself,’ said City Planning Director Steve Lindorff , referring to police and fire services that will be available to new homes or businesses. But with the decline in the housing market, ‘We won’t see those numbers going forward,’ he said.”

The St Petersburg Times from Florida. “Depressed sales of construction materials, home improvements and furnishings triggered by Florida’s burst housing bubble have started spreading to a drop in other types of consumer spending.”

“In fact, unless the state’s economy perks up in the next few months, Florida will report its first decrease in annual sales tax collections since the 1992 recession.”

“‘We have not reported decreased sales tax collections since post-9/11, but that was not as deep or lasted as long as this time,’ said Frank Williams, an economist at the state Office of Economic and Demographic Research.”

“‘How long it lasts depends on how much of a hangover Florida has to overcome (in overpriced real estate) from the housing market and subprime lending problems,’ said Sean Snaith, an economist with the University of Central Florida. ‘We’ve got the dry mouth and headache, but it’s clear they will last well into 2008.’”

The News Press from Florida. “Lee County’s unemployment rate climbed to 5.2 percent in September as a stalled real estate market continues to cost jobs in construction and related businesses.”

“Unincorporated Lee County, which includes Bonita Springs and Fort Myers Beach, issued 76 construction permits for single-family homes in September, compared to 458 a year ago. Cape Coral recorded a record low of 29, compared to 176 permits last year.”

“Joa Wright moved to Fort Myers from Fort Lauderdale about six weeks ago. She said she had been working as a receptionist at a law firm and hoped to find similar work here. ‘I can’t find anything because so many people who had been in real estate are taking other jobs,’ Wright said. ‘At this point, I will do anything. I’ll scrub floors if I have to.’”

“Craig Feinberg, a career development supervisor, said he is seeing stacks of applications from out of work real estate agents, mortgage brokers and real estate attorneys. ‘They are saying they don’t ever want to be in this position again,’ Feinberg said. ‘They want a career in something they can have some control over.’”

“Jay Cremins, an out-of-work mortgage broker, said he watched his earnings dry up as the market slowed, but he waited too long to make a change. ‘I’m stubborn, so I didn’t give up,’ Cremins said. ‘I should have because now I’m in trouble.’”

“About 80 real estate brokers from Bonita Springs and Estero jammed a conference room at Keller Williams Elite Realty Monday night to hear attack plans from the area’s top producers and mega agents.”

“‘We had to close it off. We couldn’t take any more people,’ said Sue Ellen Mathers, a licensed real estate professional. ‘I think what we’re seeing now are people who loved a house that wasn’t in their price range, buying that house and then taking a small loss on their current home. What they’ll do is make it up later when they sell their new one. It’s a great time to buy.’”

The Naples News from Florida. “A campaign being rolled out by area builders and developers encourages potential buyers to reinterpret the negative news they’ve been hearing about the local housing market.”

“Sliding prices? Affordability. Record inventories? Broad selection.”

“The ‘Buy Now!’ campaign also offers reminders of Southwest Florida’s steady growth, its enviable climate and its many beaches. Low mortgage rates and the area’s increasingly diverse economy are features mentioned in the campaign as well.”

“Donations from local companies tied to the building trade bumped the budget up to $150,000, said JoAnn Orr, VP of the Lee Building Industry Association. Additional buy-in from the media in the way of reduced advertising costs and in-kind donations of services by a handful of local public relations firms makes ‘Buy Now!’ the equivalent of a $500,000 campaign, she said.”

”We all understand that reporters have to report the news, but bad press has shaken the confidence of people to go out and spend their money,’ Orr said.”

The News & Observer from North Carolina. “Construction crews, plumbers, furniture and appliance salesman, and even real estate schools in the Triangle are starting to feel the pinch from the housing market slowdown.”

“Gary Celey, owner of Celey’s Quality Plumbing in Benson, has laid off 10 employees and cut prices 5 percent. ‘Material costs are up, labor costs are up, but [national builders] … don’t want to pay it,’ said Celey.”

“Last year, the company installed plumbing in 4,000 homes from Chapel Hill to Holly Springs, mostly for large national builders. This year, Celey expects he will work in 500 fewer homes. ‘It’s the worst it’s ever been; margins are smaller,’ he said. ‘I’ve got to re-evaluate how I do business.’”

The Memphis Daily News from Tennessee. “Matthews Brothers Homebuilders is facing more trouble with nine new foreclosures filed against the company by InSouth Bank. The properties are scheduled to be sold Nov. 9 at the Shelby County Courthouse.”

“An additional 29 foreclosures, published in today’s issue of The Daily News, have been filed by First Tennessee Bank. Don Glays, executive director of the Memphis Area Home Builders Association, said he believes the housing slump is driven by attitudes.”

“‘What is the single most significant factor that’s affecting the downturn in today’s market?’ and I think it’s consumer confidence,’ he said. ‘Our builders and the real estate agents that are talking to consumers are finding out that consumers really don’t know the truth about buying a new home,. They are coming in with a jaded opinion of the new home industry, because of the national media.’”

“‘Now, are some builders struggling? You bet they are. There are some builders who … didn’t heed the warnings about a downturn in the economy and housing industry, because, to be honest, in 2004 and 2005, there was some overbuilding going on to meet demands,’ Glays said.”

“In 2006, Shelby County saw 4,312 home starts and 3,992 new home sales, according to Chandler Reports. That’s a difference of 320. However, in previous years, far more home starts were recorded than new home sales. In 2005, the difference was 754; in 2004 it was 1,627.”

The Tennessean. “Some of Middle Tennessee’s largest banks are seeing their loans sour as the mortgage industry has crumbled across the country, which could continue to make it harder for homebuyers and builders to get loans.”

“On Thursday, First Tennessee’s parent company said it lost $14.2 million in the most recent quarter, in part because so many mortgages and home construction loans are going bad.”

“First Horizon’s mortgage losses nearly tripled in the third quarter to $45.8 million. CEO Jerry Baker said a lot of the bank’s mortgage-related losses were in Florida, California, Arizona and Nevada, states where home prices had soared and then crashed.”

“Investors are worried about the potential impact of the problems on the economy as a whole, that an increase in the number of bad loans is a sign of greater problems down the road.”

“‘There’s a cockroach theory,’ said Jeff Davis, an analyst at FTN Midwest Securities, which is owned by First Horizon. ‘If I see one or two cockroaches, how many more cockroaches are there? Investors are wondering if they’re only seeing the tip of the iceberg.’”

What do you see in your local housing market this weekend? Auctions? “In another jolt to the downtown real estate market, a newly built, upscale condo complex on Boston’s waterfront is being foreclosed on by its lenders. The 11-story Harborview complex in the Charlestown Navy Yard is slated to be sold at auction Nov. 8, a move that comes after the upscale project opened with a thud this summer.”

“Amid a sluggish real estate market, the project ultimately failed to sell any units, prompting the development team to explore its options.”

“In the largest sell-off of its kind in Minnesota, more than 300 foreclosed homes across the state will go on the auction block this weekend. Minnesota Association of Realtors vice president Chris Galler said it’s the biggest auction he’s seen in his two decades in the business. Auctions normally dispose of a half-dozen to a dozen homes.”

“‘It’s a sign of the times,’ Galler said.”

An editorial? “The real estate bust may not have hit New York yet, but over the past two years more than 15,000 city residents have faced foreclosure actions that could throw them out of their homes. And this year, more than 14,000 more families are at risk, according to the Neighborhood Economic Development Advocacy Project.”

Odd purchasing rationals? “Condominiums, townhouses and hotel-condos have been sprouting up around Notre Dame, collectively feeding an investment of more than $200 million to the South Bend community, according to the South Bend Tribune. But a dismal football season and a stagnant housing market have caused some developers to scale back their plans around Notre Dame.”

“‘When we beat Penn State [in September of 2006], the very next day we sold 11 units,’ said ike Brenan, Waterford’s general manager and developer. ‘The following week in ‘06 was the Michigan game, we lost it. The following Sunday we had 10 appointments … and not one of them showed up. To say that our ownership base is fickle would be an understatement.’”

See overbuilding? “The demand for Murfreesboro builders seeking housing permits declined by 34.1 percent through September compared to the same period last year, according to city records. Although 990 houses or condos have been built or are still being constructed in this fast-growing city in 2007, the trend still concerns housing industry professionals.”

“‘The market is flooded,’ County Building Codes Director David H. Jones said.”

Or speculation? “Between 2003 and 2005, it couldn’t have been easier to sell real estate in Brunswick County, NC. Residents put signs in front of their property, and buyers, eager to have a place near the coast or looking to flip property for a quick profit, didn’t hesitate to snatch it up.”

“‘It started picking up in the early 2000s,’ said Alan Holden, president of the Brunswick County Association of Realtors.”

“The county saw the most sales in late 2003 and early 2004, and the boom continued through the first part of the following year. ‘Values escalated. It was a no-brainer that this was where to be,’ Holden said.”

More foreclosures? “Foreclosure filings and homes sold at sheriff’s sales are spiking in Northampton County. The number of properties in default, scheduled for a sheriff’s sale or repossessed by the bank more than doubled in Northampton County to 174 homes through the end of September, compared with last year.”

“‘I think this story has not even started to play out,’ said Bethlehem economist Kamran Afshar. ‘In other words, it is going to get worse before it gets better.’”

“‘Over the last three months, we have seen a 50 percent increase in the number of filings per week,’ said Jack Gross in Bethlehem, whose firm sells homes after banks or municipalities have repossessed the properties.”

Changes in employment? “The global credit crunch has had a knock-on effect in Norfolk, with a Wymondham company yesterday announcing redundancies in the wake of the collapse of the subprime mortgage market.”

“Neil McLennan, operations manager at Direct Mortgage Answers, said redundancies had to be made to maintain the company’s strength. ‘Direct Mortgage Answers packages subprime mortgages from brokers throughout the UK. However, down to the problems in the subprime market and products being modified by lenders, the supply of such products has been restricted.’”

Or financial news? “Standard & Poor’s lowered ratings on about $22 billion of securities backed by first-lien subprime home loans because of rising delinquencies. The cut covers 1,413 classes of bonds from the fourth quarter of 2005 through the fourth quarter of 2006, the New York-based ratings company said today in a statement.”

“S&P two days ago lowered ratings on $23.4 billion of subprime and Alternative-A securities that were created as recently as June, its swiftest downgrade of mortgage bonds.”

Results of a poll? “Nearly one in four U.S. homeowners expect home prices to fall further in the coming year, as the protracted housing slowdown weighs on consumers’ outlook, according to a poll released on Friday.”

“‘There is no evidence that the deepening slump in home prices would end anytime soon,’ said Richard Curtin, director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.”

“Among homeowners polled in October, 29 percent reported their home value fell during the past year, a record high, compared with 26 percent in September.”

Falling prices? “No matter how you’re trying to sell a home in South Florida, it’s definitely taking longer to do it. There are approximately 115,000 units currently up for sale and prices are dropping ‘like a rock.’”

“Real estate experts say the sales prices are declining on average $40,000 in the last year.”

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