The End Is Nowhere Near In California
The North County Times reports from California. “Real estate agents and builders need to modify their business models in order to survive the current mortgage crisis, senior real estate executives said during a conference Wednesday. The suggestions ranged from copying car sales strategies to conducting more honest assessments.”
“‘The one thing I can tell about you Realtors is that you’re all liars,’ said Joseph Anfuso, president of Florsheim Homes, a builder in California’s Central Valley.”
“Anfuso told agents during a Wednesday real estate conference at the University of San Diego that they need to stop inflating or hiding sales numbers and swallow a hard dose of reality on their cash flow if they expect to remain in business as sales continue to plummet.”
“For real estate agents to survive this downturn, they need to know where their businesses are going over at least the next five years, said Jason Hall, co-owner of RE/MAX Associates in San Diego.”
“‘With fewer transactions, it’s going to be a professionals-only field….If you don’t know where your next five transactions are coming from, you won’t be around next year and should start thinking about what you used to do,’ Hall said.”
The Union Tribune. “Optimism was largely absent yesterday at the University of San Diego’s annual residential real estate conference. Survival through the next 12 to 24 months figured into almost every speaker’s perspective in the half-day session held on the Linda Vista campus.”
“Over the next year, home prices, which have dropped about 11 percent since their all-time peak median of $517,500 in November 2005, may drop further to approach the 17 percent peak-to-trough decline experienced in the last downturn from 1990 to 1996, said USD economist Alan Gin.”
“That is a relatively small correction considering that prices have jumped more than 250 percent in the past 10 years, he said.”
“Robert Kleinhenz, chief deputy economist for the California Association of Realtors, painted a relatively bleak picture through next year. The Federal Reserve, Kleinhenz noted, ‘knows the end is nowhere near’ on housing’s downturn, and positive mortgage-investor confidence is ‘a ways from happening.’”
“Joseph Anfuso, president of Florsheim Homes, said that when prospective buyers come window shopping at a development, ‘treat them like a rich grandfather, as if you’re in the will.’”
“In an answer to a question about the availability of jumbo loans for mortgages exceeding $417,000, Steve Atwood of National City Mortgage, said large money-center banks appear to be the only reliable source.”
“But their capacity to absorb many more such loans into their portfolios ‘is not going to last much longer.’ Previously, such loans were sold off as packaged securities on Wall Street.”
The LA Times. “In Stockton, real estate agent Cesar Dias believes there are fortunes still to be made. That’s why he leads the weekly Repo Home Tour, filling two 18-seat buses with prospective buyers eager to view foreclosed houses that can be snapped up at dramatically reduced prices.”
“Dias said that when he started the free tour in September, some residents criticized it as a tasteless marketing gimmick. But as headlines announce record foreclosures and weeds sprout in the yards of abandoned homes, their tune has changed.”
“‘We’re bringing in homeowners to get the grass green again,’ he said. ‘At this point, I wish the foreclosures would dry up. We could use an end to the free-fall.’”
“At the waterfront Stockton Arena on Dec. 1, about 500 anxious residents lined up at a foreclosure workshop to see loan counselors. Pete Ponce de Leon said he and his wife were barely keeping up with their monthly mortgage payments, which shot up from $1,700 a year ago to $2,500 now.”
“He said he cashed in two IRAs, sold his tools, sold a truck and was bracing for another rate increase this month. Along the way, he lost his job, and his lender refused to cut him a break. ‘Why don’t they just screw us all at once instead of a little at a time?’ said Ponce de Leon, who has found another job and hopes to renegotiate his mortgage.”
“Asked whether the higher payments took them by surprise, Ponce de Leon struck the same note as many other homeowners in trouble. ‘We just thought we’d be OK,’ he said, explaining that he and his wife had planned to use what they’d expected to be the rising equity in their home to refinance the adjustable loan at a lower rate.”
“It was a bet that backfired. Like homes almost everywhere else in California, the Ponce de Leons’ lost value and their interest rates kept going up.”
“Monaliza Botello said she was surprised when her father, who brings in $4,500 a month, last year secured a loan requiring a $4,000 monthly payment.”
“The idea was that Monaliza’s father would own the new $495,000 four-bedroom for a year or two, at which point she and her husband, could afford to buy it from him with a refinanced loan. But the three of them, who were all living there, fell behind in their payments, and Monaliza lost her dream home.”
“‘It still hurts,’ she said. ‘We were getting phone calls and notices from the lender: ‘If you give us the balance in full, you can keep the house.’ It was nothing like ‘Call us and we’ll see what we can work out.’”
“As home prices plunged, Botello’s cousin around the corner also went into foreclosure, as did her godmother — a real estate agent nearby. ‘Everyone was going, ‘We can’t refi? How can we afford this?’ she said. ‘Everyone was just shocked.’”
“Occupied by Monaliza’s family for just seven months, the Botello home in Lathrop, just south of Stockton, is on the market for $300,000.”
“‘Not to be callous about it, but what goes up must come down,’ Dias said, adding that he expected the market to boom again in a year or two.”
“Dan Noel and his wife were checking out homes for themselves. In fact, the Noels, who live in a one-bedroom apartment with two teenage sons, had already put money down on a home they discovered on a previous tour.”
“‘We’re so excited we can hardly contain ourselves,’ said Dan Noel, who said their full-price offer of $179,450 for the three-bedroom house beat seven others.”
The Orange County Register. “Real Estate Disposition Corp. tonight in Long Beach will peddle 22 converted condos from the Monterey Villas in Santa Ana. Nineteen are 2-bedroom, 2-bath units with opening bid from $179,000 to $209,000, or about half the old prices.”
“According to a February ‘06 news item from CoStar, ‘Pacifica Cabrillo LLC purchased the 272-unit apartment complex…in Santa Ana for nearly $51.73 million, or $190,165 per unit. The buyer intends to convert the apartment complex into condominiums.”
“SoCal bankruptcies were up 73% in the third quarter vs. a year ago. The rest of California’s bankruptcy courts saw 10,053 filings in the third quarter, up 69% in a year.”
The Desert Sun. “Home sales in the Coachella Valley continued to fall in October, with 564 properties being sold, or a 43 percent drop from last year. The median price also declined 7.9 percent to $350,000, according to DataQuick.”
“The only bright spot was the condo resale numbers, which grew 15 percent on sales of 138 units. However, the median price of condos dropped to $292,000, down 14.1 percent.”
“Patrick C. Veling, president of Real Data Strategies Inc. of Brea, says the monthly data ‘points out the flaw in using median price for anything except real macro analysis. ‘The statistical sample (of homes sold) is now small enough that the median price misrepresents what buyers and sellers are dealing with.’”
“The DataQuick data for October saw sales range from a low of $180,000 in Thermal to $7.2 million in Indian Wells. The median price per square foot also showed a drop of 12.7 percent to $204 across the valley.”
The Press Enterprise. “The Federal Reserve surprised the financial world Wednesday by announcing a plan to inject cash into the international banking system. Banks have been reticent to finance business investments in recent months because of the dramatic increase in foreclosures in this country, because many loans for new investment are backed by mortgages held by people on Main Street.”
“Inland Southern California saw 31,661 foreclosure-related filings in the third quarter, including defaults, foreclosure auctions and lender repossessions. That was one filing for every 43 households, more than four times the national average.”
“Redlands-based economist John Husing said the inclusion of foreign central banks underscores how serious Federal Reserve now views the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market.”
“‘It’s the issue we did not see,’ Husing said of the international credit crunch. ‘We thought that mortgages were all about the regional housing market. But, internationally, it’s much bigger and much scarier.’”