The Housing Bubble

The Used House Salespeople report from California. “Home sales decreased 36.2 percent in November in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home fell 11.9 percent, C.A.R. reported today. ‘While it is normal for sales to decline at this time of year, regional sales fell more steeply than usual because of the ongoing liquidity crunch and tighter underwriting standards,’ said C.A.R. President William E. Brown.”

“‘The large decreases in the statewide median price of the past few months have resulted from difficulties in obtaining jumbo loans, particularly in the upper and middle tiers of the market,’ said C.A.R. Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. ‘Whether this trend will continue after the liquidity crunch has eased remains to be seen.’”

“C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in November 2007 was 15.3 months, compared with 6.4 months (revised) for the same period a year ago. In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by C.A.R. and DataQuick Information Systems, 13.9 percent, or 41 out of 295 cities and communities, showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago.”

The Daily Bulletin. “Depending on your perspective, the California Association of Realtors’ November housing report had a little something for everyone. The bad news, of course, was for homeowners, who saw the value of their property decline, 14.3 percent in the Inland Empire.”

“The good news was for would-be buyers, who saw the median price of a home in the state fall below half a million dollars. The bad news is that it’s tough to get loans, particularly of the jumbo variety.”

“The good news is that there are plenty of homes on the market, unless you’re a seller, in which case that’s just more bad news.” “The San Bernardino-Riverside area median price fell to $344,140, with sales in the region off 43.2 percent from a year ago. The High Desert was even harder hit, with sales down 52.1 percent and the median price of a home down 21percent to $262,650.”

“Todd Tatum of Victorville-based American Housing Group said some new-home builders had been forced to make deep cuts in their asking prices. ‘That’s a bad position for them,’ he said. ‘Especially if you’ve sold the first phase of a development at one price and then you have to cut prices for the second phase.’”

The Daily News. “With the credit crunch eroding the real-estate market, the median price of a home in Los Angeles County and the rest of California plummeted a record 12 percent from a year earlier, a trade association said Friday.”

“In Los Angeles County, the state’s biggest market, the median price of a previously owned house dropped in November to $520,960 from $590,790 a year earlier, the report said. Sales fell 36.5 percent.”

“Robert Kleinhenz, the association’s deputy chief economist, attributed the price declines to potential buyers having trouble obtaining jumbo loans.”

“‘It’s very hard to figure out when that’s going to be resolved because it has to play out globally in financial markets around the world,’ he said of the credit crunch. ‘We’ll probably still see very weak sales here in California because of our reliance on jumbo loans.”

“In the High Desert, which includes the Antelope Valley, sales plunged 52 percent and the median price fell an annual 21 percent to $262,650.

“‘I don’t see much change in this trend. It’s not very good news,” said Jack Kyser, chief economist at the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. ‘Right now the news is not encouraging. No wonder people are not out shopping.’”

“”In Ventura County, sales fell 55.3 percent and the median price slipped 6.1 percent to $623,510.”

The Ventura County Star. “Donna Bushno doesn’t have to sell her Ventura home, but after 35 years she wants to downsize. ‘It’s time to move on,’ she said.”

“She and her husband put their three-bedroom, two-bathroom house on the market in July for about $569,000. After 30 days, they cut the asking price to $549,500. After five months and no bids, they dropped their Realtor and are now trying to sell the house themselves.”

“While sellers watch their equity shrink, they’re looking for any way to improve their net, said Allen Bertke, an independent broker with Bertke Consulting Services in Ojai. ‘People are really rebelling against the 6 percent commission,’ he said.”

“This means more business for Bertke. The slow market still hurts, he said, noting that his business has dropped about 30 percent.”

“Bertke’s low prices have attracted a growing number of sellers, but he’s had to walk away from many potential clients who are unrealistic. “‘We are fighting the major problem in the market today, which is sellers’ denial of what the real market is,’ he said.”

“He estimated that 90 percent of homes on the market are overpriced, some by as much as 20 percent. ‘It’s taking sellers awhile to understand the new reality,’ he said.”

Inside Bay Area. “The Alameda County-Contra Costa County region lost 1,800 jobs in November, adjusted for seasonal changes. The setback comes on the heels of job losses in September and October.”

“All told, the East Bay has lost jobs for three months in a row. During that period, employers have erased a seasonally adjusted 4,200 jobs, according to the state’s Employment Development Department.”

“‘The job market is very dismal,’ said Robin Gardner, a Fremont resident who said he has been looking for work as an administrative assistant. ‘I average sending out about 50 resumes a day. This past month, I’ve gotten one interview per week, maybe. I won’t be enjoying this Christmas.’”

“Why is this happening? It was only a year ago that the East Bay was the economic leader of the Bay Area. But the residential real estate wreckage has engulfed at least a portion of the region’s economy and job market.”

“‘This has definitely affected the broader job market,’ said Michael Bernick, a Milken Institute Fellow who specializes in employment policy. ‘There have been significant layoffs in mortgage banking” in the East Bay.’”

“‘The numbers clearly indicate that the housing market has gone beyond just impacting construction and financial activities,’ said Jon Haveman, a principal economist with Beacon Economics. ‘The bursting of housing bubbles traditionally lead to recessions in the United States, and this is the housing bubble to beat all housing bubbles. We are not surprised at all that the economy is slowing down dramatically.’”

“Victoria, a San Ramon resident who asked that her last name not be used, said she has had few responses to her job postings on multiple Internet employment boards.”

“Until mid-2006, Victoria worked in an array of jobs in the housing finance and real estate industries. Her most recent stint was at World Savings, whose parent was taken over by Wachovia Corp.”

“‘I’m pretty open to any kind of job,’ Victoria said. ‘Real estate is not a good market any more. A bunch of companies are laying people off. I will definitely consider getting into a new field.’”

From ABC News. “Cesar Dias, who has been in real estate 18 years, is making sure that the foreclosed houses in his hometown of Stockton, Calif. are getting sold, in a quite unusual way. Dias leads the weekly ‘Repo Home Tour,’ where he fills two large, brightly colored buses with prospective buyers looking for houses with big price reductions.”

“There is almost an art to the way he makes the home-buying experience fun.”

“But if you ask Cesar Dias why he conjured up Repo HomeTours three months ago he’ll tell you it’s not about money, or profits, or exploiting the misfortune of others, but about saving neighborhoods in Stockton.”

“Dias believes he is providing a necessary service. ‘We have an abundance of properties,’ said Dias. ‘And banks have to sell, and we have to provide buyers.’”

“There was a housing construction boom partly fed by people who could not afford the expensive houses in San Francisco, 60 miles away. As more and more homes were being built, prices went down and homebuyers were finding homes they could afford, or so they thought.”

“Many homebuyers simply bought to turn a profit; heedless to the bust that would inevitably come as homeowners could no longer afford their mortgage payments.”

“Elissa and Jon Hernandez were on Dias’s tour this week. The Hernandez’s have been renting for years but believe they can finally afford to own a home, thanks to the decreased prices of the foreclosed homes in Stockton.”

“In fact, one of the houses displayed on the tour was a two-story, 2,600-square-foot house that was purchased for $504,000, but now the bank that owns it is only asking $285,000.”

“The Hernandez’s see it as an opportunity as well and refuse to apologize for buying a foreclosed home. ‘We get ourselves into positions and if we can’t get ourselves out, it’s our responsibility to do what we have to do,’ said Jon Hernandez.”

“The Hernandez’s have not committed yet to buying, but it seems like they still have a few things to learn about mortgages. When asked if they were planning to get an adjustable or fixed mortgage, Jon Hernandez admitted that ‘I personally don’t know the difference.’”

“And while the foreclosure tourists are certainly happy to be shopping for a bargain, one wonders what the neighbors think of the colorful road show home-buying circus. It doesn’t bother Stockton resident Don Bailey.”

“‘I don’t care who sells it, you know, just sell it,’ said Bailey.”

The Press Democrat. “There’s a sale on at Windsor Town Green Village, and it’s not the usual holiday season variety. For $11 million, you can buy about a third of downtown, touted in a real estate ad as ‘Windsor’s flagship live/work community acclaimed by the Sierra Club as one of the country’s best smart growth villages.’”

“The New York Times advertisement that began running last week is for property owned by Elvera Bragg, the 87-year-old partner in Town Green Village who is selling 24 commercial properties, along with some of the townhomes. The storefronts and condos also can be purchased individually.”

“Her granddaughter, Sylvia Bragg, said the asking price is ‘a deal.’”

“The Town Green Village has been cited as a shining example of redevelopment in a formerly blighted area of Windsor. It includes a mix of shops and restaurants on the ground floor with townhomes overhead. While the eateries generally have thrived, it’s been a struggle for some businesses, particularly the half-dozen that were run by Elvera Bragg. Right now there are about 10 closed storefronts in the village.”

“Town Manager Matt Mullan said…other cities also are experiencing leaner times. ‘Over the holidays I’ve been in downtown Santa Rosa, Petaluma and Sonoma,’ said Mullan. ‘There’s vacancies in every one of those downtowns.’”

“There are shops at the Town Green that specialize in items such as beads, needlepoint, lingerie, candles, children’s shoes and maps. But residents say it lacks the everyday necessities found on the other side of Highway 101.”

“Orrin Thiessen, the developer who worked with Windsor officials to build the Town Green Village, has acknowledged the Town Green suffered initially from a lack of chain stores to drive up foot traffic. But he said that is changing. Starbucks, for example, is opening in February in a prominent location.”

“Efforts are also under way to attract a grocery store.”

“He said there are about 150 townhomes and residences that are part of the Town Green. Bragg appears to own four of those townhomes that are for sale — with prices ranging from $316,000 to $399,000. Her real estate agents did not return calls seeking comment.”

“Some of the commercial units she is selling still have business tenants, including a cell phone store and candle store.”

“Hal Beck, the executive director of the Windsor Chamber of Commerce, said some of the failures around the Town Green resulted from business owners who did not have strong business plans. He said some of the shops, such as a kitchenware store, were designed more for tourists than locals.”

“‘This is a downtown. If a shop is going to make it, it has to have repeat business. A lot of these shops were not designed for that,’ he said.”

Reades suggested a topic on recent credit market trends. “MBIA has a liquidity issue, Fitch places on negative watch over 170K muninicpal issues. Banks reporting losses that have never lost money before, even in the Great Depression. California’s debt mushrooms from 4 to 14 billion in 6 months. Florida halts redemptions from its state fund. CA has 90K forclosures in the last two months. A number of midwestern cities are effectivly bankrupt. Anyone see a trend developing?”

A reply, “Where is it going to lead? For now, inflation seems the most likely result, since this will add points to the borrowing costs of a whole lot of local government debt issues or at least discourage refunding of existing ones. All roads lead to the taxpayer.”

And another posted, “Not just inflation costs for additional borrowing, but is that borrowing going to happen? With falling tax revenues you have hard choices–continue to delay maintenance on bridges, roads, water infrastructure etc., or cut services like police, fire, etc. Will they cut current service jobs–again police, fire and teachers, or how will they close the shortfall in public pension liabilities?”

And lastly, “I have a feeling those ’secure’ pensions will not exist in their current form for very long. Anticipating major defaults on state & municipal bonds in the coming years.”

“No raises/pay cuts for govt employees, reduced healthcare and pension benefits. BTW, for those who don’t know, most public employees do NOT have health benefits after retirement (except for those ‘grandfathered’ in). I’ve seen people argue without knowing the facts here, so just wanted to point that out.”

“I think there is no way to avoid a very serious recession/depression beginning in 2008. Actually, the recession is already here on the streets, but the statistics aren’t showing it, yet.”

The North County Times. “The mortgage crisis has seeped into the municipal bond market, threatening to drive up borrowing costs for government issuers and reduce the value of investor portfolios, analysts said Friday.”

“In order to secure lower interest rates, governments buy insurance policies that raise the credit rating of bonds, which municipalities such as city and county governments sell as debt in order to raise funds.”

“Several of the biggest firms that sell those insurance policies are having trouble, because they also insured securities that hold subprime mortgages.”

“This week, the three agencies that effectively determine interest rates on bonds by grading credit ratings — Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings — have published reports with negative expectations for four major insurance companies that cover at least 1,088 North County bonds worth hundreds of millions of dollars.”

“‘This is probably the largest event that has ever occurred for bond insurance companies,’ said Howard Mischel, managing director of Standard & Poor’s. ‘This is sort of like the 500-year storm for them.’”

The Wall Street Journal. “In recent months, bond insurers — which guarantee the principal and interest payments on various types of debt — have gotten clobbered amid uncertainty about some messy types of mortgage securities they have backed. The situation is raising questions about whether the insurers are financially strong enough to cover any potential losses.”

“Uncertainty about insurers like these is hurting the prices of the bonds they insure — including muni bonds, even though they remain relatively safe, given the rarity of their defaults.”

“Some mutual-fund managers say they have never seen such deep price discounts. For a more aggressive bond investor, this could spell opportunities to lock in attractive muni-bond deals.”

“‘We’ve kind of gotten sucked into this whole flurry of credit concerns that’s unduly affected some very high-quality securities,’ says Reid Smith of the Vanguard Group.”

“Monday, Mr. Smith’s team noticed that California Economic Recovery bonds insured by bond insurer Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. were trading at a lower price, and 0.05 percentage-point higher yield, than a similar bond without insurance.”

“Nuveen Investments municipal-bond-fund manager John Miller says he has similarly been buying MBIA-insured bonds now trading at attractive prices. ‘Insured municipal bonds in general over the last several weeks have continued to get cheaper,’ he says, adding: ‘This is the widest spread I can recall,’ referring to the difference between certain yields.”

“In particular, offerings such as some investment-grade hospital bonds have been hammered, he says.”

“‘Right now, you have muni bonds that are yielding what Treasury bonds are yielding, despite the fact that they give tax-free income,’ says Lewis Altfest, a New York-based fee-only planner. Thus, on an after-tax basis their yields are much higher.”

“Despite the buys in the municipal market, so far investors aren’t biting. This past week, municipal-bond funds reported their sixth straight week of net outflows — the longest string of consecutive weeks in two years.”

The Review Journal reports from Nevada. “Local housing indicators in November continued to soften, two Las Vegas research firms said this week. Closings and median prices in the new- and existing-home categories fell from a year earlier, data from SalesTraq and Home Builders Research showed. The market’s median new-home price plummeted following massive cost cuts in October and November, as builders looked to move inventory. And sustained high supply on the resale side suppressed median prices there.”

“The pain hit the affordable condominium-conversion market especially hard. The segment, which carries median prices well below $200,000, moved just 67 homes in November, down from more than 1,000 sales at the conversion market’s peak in December 2005, said Dennis Smith, president of Home Builders Research.”

“Builders pulled just 343 permits, the lowest total ‘in this century,’ said Larry Murphy, president of SalesTraq.”

“‘This market is really, really bad,’ said Realtor Mike Altishin. ‘Quite frankly, I’m not interested in taking a listing at this point unless someone is extremely motivated to sell.’”

“Altishin has a home for sale below $200,000, and it’s fallen out of escrow three times. He’s also sold his own investment properties; one, appraised at $210,000, just sold for $165,000. And Altishin had to cover the closing costs to boot.”

“‘I saw a commercial on TV with some people who had purchased a home at an auction, and they were excited that they had purchased this $250,000 house for $20,000 below value,’ Altishin said. ‘When I heard that, I said, ‘That was about $25,000 too much.’”

“‘It’s a horrible market, but it’s a horrible market that’s going to get better,’ Smith said. ‘We are very close to the bottom. Unfortunately, the turnaround is not going to happen overnight.’”

In Business Las Vegas from Nevada. “More midrise condo projects in Las Vegas have been postponed as part of the continuing shakeout of the housing industry. The number of condo units suspended jumped 21 percent in the third quarter from 3,877 to 4,688, according to Applied Analysis.”

“With financing harder to come by for developers, there were more than 20,000 units suspended or canceled through the end of the third quarter. The prices of new homes and existing homes have fallen, giving local buyers some incredible bargains that hadn’t been available and further competition for the condo market that is also a lifestyle choice.”

“‘There is a lot of competition in the marketplace, and it is difficult for buyers to be willing to pay the premium for a project when there are 27,000 resale units on the market today,’ Applied Analysis Principal Brian Gordon said.”

“In its latest statistics tracking the third quarter, Applied Analysis reported there were 13,033 condo units under construction, led by MGM Mirage’s CityCenter. There are 7,219 existing condo units, up from 5,849 at the end of the second quarter.”

“The closing price of units sold in the third quarter averaged $694,600 or $539 per square foot. At the end of the third quarter, there were 854 luxury condos on the market, up 19 percent from the second quarter. The units had an average asking price of $830,800 or $624 per square foot.”

The Nevada Appeal. “Nevada’s unemployment rate continued to rise in November despite seasonal hiring in the retail sector.”

“Bill Anderson, economist for the Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation, said the primary culprit was the construction industry, which was down another 2,500 jobs from October. He said because of the collapse of the housing market, construction has lost some 7,300 jobs in the past 12 months.”

“The Las Vegas area reported 5.3 percent out of work, up from 1.2 percent from a year ago.”

The Arizona Republic. “A slowdown in condominium sales in downtown Scottsdale has altered the plans for Hotel Valley Ho and its residential units. Two years after completing renovations for $80 million, the hotel is opening its tower suites for nightly rentals.”

“Valley Ho, built in 1956, reopened in December 2005 with plans for 37 condos, lofts and penthouses. Three penthouses have been sold, and another will be furnished as a model to entice more buyers.”

“Valley Ho has a handful of full-time residents, and part-time residents and investors, said Andrew Chippindall, Valley Ho general manager.” “Valley Ho’s top-floor units start at $1.6 million for 1,688 square feet, and two-bedroom condos are going for $700,000 and up for 1,350 square feet.”

“Sales of existing condos and townhouses in Scottsdale have fallen nearly 9 percent this year through November, compared with 2006. Median prices have been slumping as well, down 7 percent in November from the previous year. Building permits issued in Scottsdale for condos and apartments have fallen 18 percent this year, with less than two weeks left in 2007.”

“The slowdown persuaded Toll Brothers to hold off indefinitely on construction of its 62-unit Regency townhouse project, south of Valley Ho.”

“Toll Brothers is completing 85 condos on the same site at its six-story building called the Mark. Model units are scheduled to open early in 2008.”

“The two-day auction at the Mesa Convention Center could be the start of a trend. Not only are foreclosures climbing, but so is the number of homes going back to lenders. 2,000 people showed up to bid at, or at least to watch, an auction for more than 200 Valley homes on which lenders had foreclosed.”

“Before last year, most of the homes in default sold at trustee auctions on the steps of the Maricopa County courthouse. Now there are few bidders for those auctions because many of the houses are worth less than what is owed on them.”

“Values of the houses to go on the block ranged from $100,000 to $600,000. All had been taken back by big U.S. lenders. More than three-fourths of the properties sold for prices ranging from $75,000 to $465,000.”

“There weren’t a lot of bidding wars, and prices didn’t soar.”

“Prices started low. The opening bid on a relatively new three-bedroom, 2 1/2-bath house in Goodyear started at $80,000.”

“Unfortunately, there’s plenty of new inventory because 1,344 homes were foreclosed on in metropolitan Phoenix last month. Also, almost 3,500 homeowners who are behind on their mortgage payments got notices that their lender was about to start foreclosure proceedings.”

“Home builders big and small have been scaling back their development plans for the coming year and selling off untouched swaths of land - particularly in outlying areas - to cope with the struggling market. That has created opportunities for investors looking to buy land at a discount.”

“Real-estate experts say the sell-off trend is likely to continue next year as the housing market struggles through its correction.” “‘Our view is that the market is going to get worse before it gets better,’ said John Graham, president of Scottsdale-based developer Sunbelt Holdings.”

“Currently, much of the land offered for sale is in areas like Pinal County and Buckeye, or other far-flung regions.”

“Valley broker Bo Mills, who specializes in industrial properties, watched as land investors sold undeveloped properties zoned for industrial use in the West Valley to hungry home builders during the housing run-up a few years ago.”

“Portions of that land remain untouched and are back on the market, Mills said, but they aren’t being rezoned for industrial uses.”

“‘We’ve always been concerned with the lack of Class A and Class B industry employment centers,’ said Barry Broome, president and CEO of the Greater Phoenix Economic Council. ‘The best real-estate sites should be used for employment sites. You’re in competition for employers; you’re not in competition with houses.’”

The Arizona Daily Star. “When the market got tough, real estate broker Dave Sunderman did what many industry experts advise: He hit the street.”

“Although he might have taken that idea too literally. Sunderman recently stood on the corner of East Tanque Verde and North Sabino Canyon roads with a sign saying ‘Will Sell You A Home For Food’ and offering to donate a portion of his commissions to the Community Food Bank.”

“‘I’m seeing a lot of agents going out and looking for second jobs,’ said Chip Rock, owner of Re/Max Majestic Realty. ‘The agents who know how to sell real estate are still selling real estate. The ones who came in during the boom, they don’t know how.’”

“Among those who may be phasing out is Rick Van Camp, of Red Horizon Realty. Van Camp previously worked in sales for a company that rebuilds circuit breakers, but left for full-time real estate work in 2004. Now he’s gone back to the electrical equipment firm and just does real estate part time.”

“‘My old broker used to say if you had a pen and a pulse, you could write a real estate contract, he said. Since then, it’s gotten much slower.’”

“The total volume of real estate sales — and pool of potential commissions — has fallen nearly 42 percent from October 2005 to October 2007, the most recent figures available, according to the Tucson Association of Realtors MLS.”

“Rock said that, in the current environment, he expects the ranks of real estate agents in town to drop eventually by about a third. ‘The gold mine came to an end,’ he said.”

“Some agents are finding that the post-slowdown market takes more work, including more weekends holding open houses, and more self-promotion.”

“‘Three years ago, quite frankly, you could show up and probably you would have a piece of business drop in your lap,’ said Rosey Koberlein, CEO of The Long Cos., parent of Long Realty ‘That’s not the business climate now.’”

The Yuma Sun from Arizona. “Despite sluggish home sales, sharp decline in new construction and a doubled foreclosure rate, observers of the real estate market are sure there’s a light at the end of the tunnel for the industry.”

“They just can’t see it yet.”

“‘Actually, I don’t think Yuma has been hit as hard as other places,’ said Vicki Bardo, outgoing president of the Yuma Association of Realtors. ‘We had a better year than I thought we would have. Yuma really hasn’t had it as bad as other areas.’”

“That’s not to say the real estate market here hasn’t been hit hard, she said. ‘We’re sitting here with a lot of inventory. There’s no question it’s been devastating, especially when someone has to move and they can’t sell their house.’”

“She said 1,500 dwellings of all types were listed recently for sale by the Yuma association’s MLS. That doesn’t include homes the owners are trying to sell themselves or most of the new construction.”

“‘The market is bleeding and there is a lot of volatility in the mortgage market. Most of the exotic mortgages are gone. They no longer exist for people with poor credit or no down payment,’ said Brian Holiman, branch manager for Yuma Mortgage Group.”

“‘But I happen to believe this is a really good time to buy a house,’ Holiman continued. ‘Sellers are realizing they need to bring their price down and make other concessions.’”

“One thing he’s seeing, he said, is that people have become more realistic. ‘They’re buying what they can actually afford.’”

“Caught in the middle are the many people who overpaid for a house - often speculators - with the expectation of a quick turnaround and fat profit from the accelerating prices, Holiman said. ‘That’s come back to haunt them. I’m seeing at least one person a week who’s in trouble.’”

“Holiman speculated that by late 2008, those who would miss payments will have done so, ‘and everyone will start coming back to the table by late ‘08 or early ‘09.’”

“There will be a painful time before then. As of Nov. 30, there had been a total of 675 notices of trustee sales this year, according to records Yuma Stats had gathered from the Yuma County Recorder’s Office. That’s roughly double the number in 2005, when there were 389 trustee sales notices.”

“As of November, city of Yuma had issued 231 single-family dwelling permits, many of them for larger, custom-built homes, building official Randy Crist said. ‘It seems the smaller, tract homes are slowing.’”

“Crist noted the number of housing permits is substantially lower than previous years. For the same 11 months in 2006, 576 housing permits were issued and 969 in the same period in 2005.”

“What seems to be happening, he said, is that developers are positioning themselves for when the real estate market rebounds by continuing to work on subdivisions.”

“‘We still have plenty of work to do,’ Crist said. ‘A lot of subdivisions are continuing to be developed. When the boom comes back, there will be a lot of choices for lots.’”

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